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The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was -0.1 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 0 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -0.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.1, "probabilityDifference": -1.4}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 16526, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.7, "confidenceLow": 52.7, "expectedCount": 8836, "confidenceHigh": 54.2, "expectedPercent": 53.5}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 15696, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.3, "confidenceLow": 52.4, "expectedCount": 8343, "confidenceHigh": 53.9, "expectedPercent": 53.2}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 57607, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.5, "confidenceLow": 52.5, "expectedCount": 30470, "confidenceHigh": 53.3, "expectedPercent": 52.9}, "horizons": [{"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 17120, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.8, "confidenceLow": 47.3, "expectedCount": 8232, "confidenceHigh": 48.8, "expectedPercent": 48.1}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 16246, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 0.7, "confidenceLow": 49.3, "expectedCount": 8135, "confidenceHigh": 50.8, "expectedPercent": 50.1}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 59570, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.9, "confidenceLow": 46.3, "expectedCount": 27824, "confidenceHigh": 47.1, "expectedPercent": 46.7}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 0.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.1, "probabilityDifference": -2.0}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 16526, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.7, "confidenceLow": 52.7, "expectedCount": 8836, "confidenceHigh": 54.2, "expectedPercent": 53.5}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 15696, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.3, "confidenceLow": 52.4, "expectedCount": 8343, "confidenceHigh": 53.9, "expectedPercent": 53.2}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 57607, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.5, "confidenceLow": 52.5, "expectedCount": 30470, "confidenceHigh": 53.3, "expectedPercent": 52.9}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 0.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.2, "probabilityDifference": 0.3}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 15659, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.6, "confidenceLow": 56.7, "expectedCount": 8995, "confidenceHigh": 58.2, "expectedPercent": 57.4}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 14604, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.7, "confidenceLow": 53.0, "expectedCount": 7863, "confidenceHigh": 54.6, "expectedPercent": 53.8}, "state": "supports", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 54111, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.3, "confidenceLow": 54.1, "expectedCount": 29515, "confidenceHigh": 55.0, "expectedPercent": 54.5}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 1.9, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 2.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.3, "probabilityDifference": 3.6}], "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use agreement to distinguish supported trends from moves that lack confirmation.", "role": "Conditional research angle", "avoid": "Do not confuse alignment with certainty; an aligned market can still reverse.", "label": "Horizon-specific", "state": "selective", "confirm": "Check that the advantage remains visible beyond the shortest horizon and repeats across completed years.", "headline": "Agreement improves conviction at the horizons where it persists", "observed": "At 26 weeks, price and market dynamics positive was followed by a higher price in 57.4% of cases: +3.6 points versus price and market dynamics negative and +2.9 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +1.9 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 1 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 1, "supportingHorizons": 1}, "returnDifference": 0.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.2, "probabilityDifference": 0.3}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 14828, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.2, "confidenceLow": 54.4, "expectedCount": 8180, "confidenceHigh": 56.0, "expectedPercent": 55.2}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 16158, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.1, "confidenceLow": 51.5, "expectedCount": 8447, "confidenceHigh": 53.0, "expectedPercent": 52.3}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 57607, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.5, "confidenceLow": 52.5, "expectedCount": 30470, "confidenceHigh": 53.3, "expectedPercent": 52.9}, "horizons": [{"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 15468, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.9, "confidenceLow": 50.6, "expectedCount": 7946, "confidenceHigh": 52.2, "expectedPercent": 51.4}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 16724, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.8, "confidenceLow": 47.0, "expectedCount": 7995, "confidenceHigh": 48.6, "expectedPercent": 47.8}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 59570, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.9, "confidenceLow": 46.3, "expectedCount": 27824, "confidenceHigh": 47.1, "expectedPercent": 46.7}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 0.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 4.7, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.0, "probabilityDifference": 3.6}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 14828, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.2, "confidenceLow": 54.4, "expectedCount": 8180, "confidenceHigh": 56.0, "expectedPercent": 55.2}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 16158, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.1, "confidenceLow": 51.5, "expectedCount": 8447, "confidenceHigh": 53.0, "expectedPercent": 52.3}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 57607, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.5, "confidenceLow": 52.5, "expectedCount": 30470, "confidenceHigh": 53.3, "expectedPercent": 52.9}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 1.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 2.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.7, "probabilityDifference": 2.9}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 14076, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.8, "confidenceLow": 56.7, "expectedCount": 8092, "confidenceHigh": 58.3, "expectedPercent": 57.5}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 14993, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.9, "confidenceLow": 52.9, "expectedCount": 8044, "confidenceHigh": 54.4, "expectedPercent": 53.7}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 54111, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.3, "confidenceLow": 54.1, "expectedCount": 29515, "confidenceHigh": 55.0, "expectedPercent": 54.5}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 1.9, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 3.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.5, "probabilityDifference": 3.8}], "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use disagreement to identify prices that may be early or late relative to the underlying market behaviour.", "role": "Conditional research angle", "avoid": "Do not assume every divergence must close, or that it must close immediately.", "label": "Horizon-specific", "state": "selective", "confirm": "Wait for price to begin resolving toward Market Dynamics, or for a separate signal to confirm the change.", "headline": "Market Dynamics leading price is an early-change watchlist angle", "observed": "At 26 weeks, market dynamics stronger than price was followed by a higher price in 57.5% of cases: +3.8 points versus price stronger than market dynamics and +3.0 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +1.9 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 1 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 1, "supportingHorizons": 3}, "returnDifference": 1.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 2.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.7, "probabilityDifference": 2.9}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 2476, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.2, "confidenceLow": 50.3, "expectedCount": 1295, "confidenceHigh": 54.3, "expectedPercent": 52.3}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 5307, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.9, "confidenceLow": 54.7, "expectedCount": 2974, "confidenceHigh": 57.4, "expectedPercent": 56.0}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 57607, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.5, "confidenceLow": 52.5, "expectedCount": 30470, "confidenceHigh": 53.3, "expectedPercent": 52.9}, "horizons": [{"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 2571, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.6, "confidenceLow": 48.9, "expectedCount": 1306, "confidenceHigh": 52.7, "expectedPercent": 50.8}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 5492, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.9, "confidenceLow": 50.8, "expectedCount": 2861, "confidenceHigh": 53.4, "expectedPercent": 52.1}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 59570, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.9, "confidenceLow": 46.3, "expectedCount": 27824, "confidenceHigh": 47.1, "expectedPercent": 46.7}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": 0.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 4.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.7, "probabilityDifference": -1.3}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 2476, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.2, "confidenceLow": 50.3, "expectedCount": 1295, "confidenceHigh": 54.3, "expectedPercent": 52.3}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 5307, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.9, "confidenceLow": 54.7, "expectedCount": 2974, "confidenceHigh": 57.4, "expectedPercent": 56.0}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 57607, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.5, "confidenceLow": 52.5, "expectedCount": 30470, "confidenceHigh": 53.3, "expectedPercent": 52.9}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -0.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.3, "probabilityDifference": -3.7}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 2304, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.3, "confidenceLow": 51.6, "expectedCount": 1237, "confidenceHigh": 55.7, "expectedPercent": 53.7}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 4905, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.4, "confidenceLow": 57.1, "expectedCount": 2871, "confidenceHigh": 59.9, "expectedPercent": 58.5}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 54111, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.3, "confidenceLow": 54.1, "expectedCount": 29515, "confidenceHigh": 55.0, "expectedPercent": 54.5}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -2.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.0, "probabilityDifference": -4.8}], "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use accumulation and distribution to frame price location, patience, risk and the quality of a later signal.", "role": "Confirmation only", "avoid": "Do not buy solely because price is in accumulation or sell solely because it is in distribution.", "label": "Weak separation", "state": "weak", "confirm": "Look for a completed move out of the zone and a compatible Market Dynamics signal before treating location as timing.", "headline": "The zones describe location and risk, not a stand-alone reversal trigger", "observed": "At 4 weeks, accumulation was followed by a higher price in 50.8% of cases: -1.3 points versus distribution and +4.1 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +0.7 points.", "bestHorizon": 4, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 1 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 1, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -0.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.3, "probabilityDifference": -3.7}], "buySignalCaseStudy": {"title": "First valid Market Dynamics signal", "horizons": [{"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 2.6, "directionalEdgePoints": 10.8}, "weeks": 4, "sample": 1434, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.5, "confidenceLow": 55.0, "expectedCount": 825, "confidenceHigh": 60.1, "baselinePercent": 46.7, "expectedPercent": 57.5, "baselineAverageReturn": 0.9}, {"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 7.4, "directionalEdgePoints": 15.9}, "weeks": 12, "sample": 1370, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 9.9, "confidenceLow": 66.3, "expectedCount": 942, "confidenceHigh": 71.2, "baselinePercent": 52.9, "expectedPercent": 68.8, "baselineAverageReturn": 2.5}, {"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 15.4, "directionalEdgePoints": 26.6}, "weeks": 26, "sample": 1254, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 20.7, "confidenceLow": 78.8, "expectedCount": 1017, "confidenceHigh": 83.2, "baselinePercent": 54.5, "expectedPercent": 81.1, "baselineAverageReturn": 5.3}], "expectedDirection": "higher"}, "positioningOutcomes": {"accumulation": {"use": "Long positioning", "label": "Accumulation to distribution", "cycles": 663, "thresholds": [{"reached": 556, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 80.9, "confidenceHigh": 86.5, "cyclesObserved": 663, "reachedPercent": 83.9, "medianWeeksToReach": 7.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 18.9, "completedReachedPercent": 94.5}, {"reached": 497, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 71.5, "confidenceHigh": 78.1, "cyclesObserved": 663, "reachedPercent": 75.0, "medianWeeksToReach": 13, "averageWeeksToReach": 26.4, "completedReachedPercent": 89.2}, {"reached": 418, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 59.3, "confidenceHigh": 66.6, "cyclesObserved": 663, "reachedPercent": 63.0, "medianWeeksToReach": 27.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 39.9, "completedReachedPercent": 79.5}, {"reached": 336, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 46.9, "confidenceHigh": 54.5, "cyclesObserved": 663, "reachedPercent": 50.7, "medianWeeksToReach": 40.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 49.6, "completedReachedPercent": 65.8}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Completed cycles experienced an average adverse move of 18.0% before resolution. Position size and confirmation still matter.", "timing": "The condition lasted 8.7 weeks on average before price left accumulation, while the best advance in completed cycles occurred after 70.6 weeks on average.", "finding": "75.0% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 13 weeks); 63.0% reached 20% (median 27 weeks).", "headline": "Accumulation has been most useful as a patient long-positioning window", "application": "Use accumulation to prepare a long case, then require price confirmation before increasing conviction. The condition is a positioning context rather than a stand-alone instruction to buy.", "repeatability": "Later completed cycles resolved higher 92.6% of the time across 27 repeat cycles."}, "activeCycles": 263, "repeatedCycles": 27, "completedCycles": 400, "medianAdverseMove": 8.7, "medianCycleReturn": 38.9, "averageAdverseMove": 18.0, "averageCycleReturn": 47.7, "medianFavourableMove": 40.1, "averageFavourableMove": 51.5, "medianGrossOpportunity": 38.9, "averageGrossOpportunity": 47.7, "expectedDirectionPercent": 90.8, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": 2.65, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 91.5, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 3.8, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 98.4, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": 56.9, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 8.7, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 25, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 87.5, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 373, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 67.5, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 70.6, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 93.2, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": 92.6, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 76.6, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 97.9}, "distribution": {"use": "Downside risk and short positioning", "label": "Distribution to accumulation", "cycles": 978, "thresholds": [{"reached": 749, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 73.8, "confidenceHigh": 79.1, "cyclesObserved": 978, "reachedPercent": 76.6, "medianWeeksToReach": 10, "averageWeeksToReach": 25.6, "completedReachedPercent": 91.9}, {"reached": 606, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 58.9, "confidenceHigh": 65.0, "cyclesObserved": 978, "reachedPercent": 62.0, "medianWeeksToReach": 19.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 37.3, "completedReachedPercent": 84.8}, {"reached": 407, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 38.6, "confidenceHigh": 44.7, "cyclesObserved": 978, "reachedPercent": 41.6, "medianWeeksToReach": 36, "averageWeeksToReach": 45.9, "completedReachedPercent": 62.8}, {"reached": 215, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 19.5, "confidenceHigh": 24.7, "cyclesObserved": 978, "reachedPercent": 22.0, "medianWeeksToReach": 46, "averageWeeksToReach": 51.1, "completedReachedPercent": 38.1}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Price rose by 50.7% on average before completed downside cycles resolved. That adverse path makes unconfirmed or unbounded short positioning unsuitable.", "timing": "Price left distribution after 6.4 weeks on average, but the deepest reversal in completed cycles occurred after 72.4 weeks on average.", "finding": "62.0% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 19 weeks); 41.6% reached 20% (median 36 weeks).", "headline": "Distribution has been a downside warning before it has been a short entry", "application": "Use distribution first to review long exposure, protect gains and watch for downward confirmation. A short case needs price weakness and defined risk; distribution alone is not enough.", "repeatability": "Later completed cycles resolved lower 100.0% of the time across 43 repeat cycles."}, "activeCycles": 569, "repeatedCycles": 43, "completedCycles": 409, "medianAdverseMove": 24.2, "medianCycleReturn": -24.3, "averageAdverseMove": 50.7, "averageCycleReturn": -20.8, "medianFavourableMove": 25.0, "averageFavourableMove": 27.5, "medianGrossOpportunity": 24.3, "averageGrossOpportunity": 20.8, "expectedDirectionPercent": 86.3, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": 0.41, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 99, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 6.7, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 106.2, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": 37.9, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 6.4, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 42, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 82.6, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 366, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 72, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 72.4, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 89.3, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": 100.0, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 91.8, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 100.0}}}, "etf": {"label": "Mexico ETFs", "annual": [{"state": "doesNotSupport", "period": "2020", "tested": 4, "families": [{"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 464, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.5, "confidenceLow": 56.0, "expectedCount": 281, "confidenceHigh": 64.9, "expectedPercent": 60.6}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 411, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.3, "confidenceLow": 66.7, "expectedCount": 293, "confidenceHigh": 75.5, "expectedPercent": 71.3}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 1232, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.3, "confidenceLow": 67.3, "expectedCount": 861, "confidenceHigh": 72.4, "expectedPercent": 69.9}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -3.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -9.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -2.8, "probabilityDifference": -10.7}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 1045, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.4, "confidenceLow": 64.1, "expectedCount": 700, "confidenceHigh": 69.8, "expectedPercent": 67.0}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 998, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.1, "confidenceLow": 63.9, "expectedCount": 667, "confidenceHigh": 69.7, "expectedPercent": 66.8}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 1232, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.3, "confidenceLow": 67.3, "expectedCount": 861, "confidenceHigh": 72.4, "expectedPercent": 69.9}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": 0.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -2.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.1, "probabilityDifference": 0.2}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 644, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.9, "confidenceLow": 64.5, "expectedCount": 439, "confidenceHigh": 71.6, "expectedPercent": 68.2}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 543, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.8, "confidenceLow": 72.5, "expectedCount": 414, "confidenceHigh": 79.6, "expectedPercent": 76.2}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 1232, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.3, "confidenceLow": 67.3, "expectedCount": 861, "confidenceHigh": 72.4, "expectedPercent": 69.9}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -1.9, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.7, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.6, "probabilityDifference": -8.0}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 545, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.2, "confidenceLow": 66.1, "expectedCount": 382, "confidenceHigh": 73.8, "expectedPercent": 70.1}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 603, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 8.3, "confidenceLow": 75.7, "expectedCount": 477, "confidenceHigh": 82.2, "expectedPercent": 79.1}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 1232, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.3, "confidenceLow": 67.3, "expectedCount": 861, "confidenceHigh": 72.4, "expectedPercent": 69.9}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": -2.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.9, "probabilityDifference": -9.0}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 9, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": -8.0, "confidenceLow": 12.1, "expectedCount": 3, "confidenceHigh": 64.6, "expectedPercent": 33.3}, "label": "More history needed", "right": {"sample": 206, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.7, "confidenceLow": 60.3, "expectedCount": 138, "confidenceHigh": 73.0, "expectedPercent": 67.0}, "state": "building", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 1232, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.3, "confidenceLow": 67.3, "expectedCount": 861, "confidenceHigh": 72.4, "expectedPercent": 69.9}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -12.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -36.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -13.3, "probabilityDifference": -33.7}], "supports": 0, "doesNotSupport": 3}, {"state": "doesNotSupport", "period": "2021", "tested": 4, "families": [{"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 349, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.6, "confidenceLow": 52.1, 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"expectedPercent": 58.8}, "horizons": [{"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 2520, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 0.9, "confidenceLow": 49.0, "expectedCount": 1284, "confidenceHigh": 52.9, "expectedPercent": 51.0}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 2429, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.9, "confidenceLow": 51.3, "expectedCount": 1295, "confidenceHigh": 55.3, "expectedPercent": 53.3}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 15667, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.7, "confidenceLow": 50.8, "expectedCount": 8089, "confidenceHigh": 52.4, "expectedPercent": 51.6}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": 0.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.2, "probabilityDifference": -2.3}, {"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 2441, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.5, "confidenceLow": 53.9, "expectedCount": 1364, "confidenceHigh": 57.8, "expectedPercent": 55.9}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 2382, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.4, "confidenceLow": 59.4, "expectedCount": 1463, "confidenceHigh": 63.4, "expectedPercent": 61.4}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 15025, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.1, "confidenceLow": 58.0, "expectedCount": 8829, "confidenceHigh": 59.5, "expectedPercent": 58.8}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -1.9, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -2.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.6, "probabilityDifference": -5.5}, {"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 2260, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.3, "confidenceLow": 58.7, "expectedCount": 1373, "confidenceHigh": 62.7, "expectedPercent": 60.8}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 2223, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.0, "confidenceLow": 60.7, "expectedCount": 1395, "confidenceHigh": 64.7, "expectedPercent": 62.8}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 13993, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.5, "confidenceLow": 59.4, "expectedCount": 8428, "confidenceHigh": 61.0, "expectedPercent": 60.2}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -1.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.2, "probabilityDifference": -2.0}], "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use the state to describe the current backdrop and to rank otherwise similar setups.", "role": "Context and risk control", "avoid": "Do not assume that a positive state must lead to a rise or that a negative state must lead to a fall.", "label": "No standalone edge", "state": "none", "confirm": "Require a change in Market Dynamics, confirmation from price, or a separate qualifying signal before treating the state as actionable.", "headline": "The sign describes the backdrop, not a directional trigger", "observed": "At 26 weeks, positive state was followed by a higher price in 60.8% of cases: -2.0 points versus negative state and +0.6 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was -1.7 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 1 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 1, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -1.9, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -2.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.6, "probabilityDifference": -5.5}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 7521, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.2, "confidenceLow": 56.8, "expectedCount": 4357, "confidenceHigh": 59.0, "expectedPercent": 57.9}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 7470, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.7, "confidenceLow": 59.0, "expectedCount": 4492, "confidenceHigh": 61.2, "expectedPercent": 60.1}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 15025, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.1, "confidenceLow": 58.0, "expectedCount": 8829, "confidenceHigh": 59.5, "expectedPercent": 58.8}, "horizons": [{"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 7801, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.9, "confidenceLow": 51.6, "expectedCount": 4111, "confidenceHigh": 53.8, "expectedPercent": 52.7}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 7831, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.8, "confidenceLow": 52.1, "expectedCount": 4170, "confidenceHigh": 54.4, "expectedPercent": 53.2}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 15667, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.7, "confidenceLow": 50.8, "expectedCount": 8089, "confidenceHigh": 52.4, "expectedPercent": 51.6}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": 0.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.2, "probabilityDifference": -0.5}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 7521, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.2, "confidenceLow": 56.8, "expectedCount": 4357, "confidenceHigh": 59.0, "expectedPercent": 57.9}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 7470, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.7, "confidenceLow": 59.0, "expectedCount": 4492, "confidenceHigh": 61.2, "expectedPercent": 60.1}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 15025, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.1, "confidenceLow": 58.0, "expectedCount": 8829, "confidenceHigh": 59.5, "expectedPercent": 58.8}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": -0.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.1, "probabilityDifference": -2.2}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 6995, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.1, "confidenceLow": 59.9, "expectedCount": 4272, "confidenceHigh": 62.2, "expectedPercent": 61.1}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 7010, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.2, "confidenceLow": 60.7, "expectedCount": 4333, "confidenceHigh": 62.9, "expectedPercent": 61.8}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 13993, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.5, "confidenceLow": 59.4, "expectedCount": 8428, "confidenceHigh": 61.0, "expectedPercent": 60.2}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": -0.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.6, "probabilityDifference": -0.7}], "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use strengthening or weakening to judge whether an existing price move is gaining or losing support.", "role": "Confirmation only", "avoid": "Do not act on a one-period change without checking whether the price structure agrees.", "label": "Weak separation", "state": "weak", "confirm": "Look for persistence in the change and a compatible response from price before increasing conviction.", "headline": "Strengthening and weakening are confirmation, not timing signals alone", "observed": "At 4 weeks, strengthening was followed by a higher price in 52.7% of cases: -0.5 points versus weakening and +1.1 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +0.1 points.", "bestHorizon": 4, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 0 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -0.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.1, "probabilityDifference": -2.2}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 4438, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.3, "confidenceLow": 57.8, "expectedCount": 2629, "confidenceHigh": 60.7, "expectedPercent": 59.2}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 4160, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.2, "confidenceLow": 55.7, "expectedCount": 2380, "confidenceHigh": 58.7, "expectedPercent": 57.2}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 15025, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.1, "confidenceLow": 58.0, "expectedCount": 8829, "confidenceHigh": 59.5, "expectedPercent": 58.8}, "horizons": [{"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 4659, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.7, "confidenceLow": 51.5, "expectedCount": 2468, "confidenceHigh": 54.4, "expectedPercent": 53.0}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 4310, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.6, "confidenceLow": 51.0, "expectedCount": 2264, "confidenceHigh": 54.0, "expectedPercent": 52.5}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 15667, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.7, "confidenceLow": 50.8, "expectedCount": 8089, "confidenceHigh": 52.4, "expectedPercent": 51.6}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 0.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.0, "probabilityDifference": 0.5}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 4438, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.3, "confidenceLow": 57.8, "expectedCount": 2629, "confidenceHigh": 60.7, "expectedPercent": 59.2}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 4160, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.2, "confidenceLow": 55.7, "expectedCount": 2380, "confidenceHigh": 58.7, "expectedPercent": 57.2}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 15025, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.1, "confidenceLow": 58.0, "expectedCount": 8829, "confidenceHigh": 59.5, "expectedPercent": 58.8}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 0.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.2, "probabilityDifference": 2.0}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 4163, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.8, "confidenceLow": 63.3, "expectedCount": 2696, "confidenceHigh": 66.2, "expectedPercent": 64.8}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 3789, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.9, "confidenceLow": 56.5, "expectedCount": 2200, "confidenceHigh": 59.6, "expectedPercent": 58.1}, "state": "supports", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 13993, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.5, "confidenceLow": 59.4, "expectedCount": 8428, "confidenceHigh": 61.0, "expectedPercent": 60.2}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 1.9, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 4.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.3, "probabilityDifference": 6.7}], "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use agreement to distinguish supported trends from moves that lack confirmation.", "role": "Conditional research angle", "avoid": "Do not confuse alignment with certainty; an aligned market can still reverse.", "label": "Horizon-specific", "state": "selective", "confirm": "Check that the advantage remains visible beyond the shortest horizon and repeats across completed years.", "headline": "Agreement improves conviction at the horizons where it persists", "observed": "At 26 weeks, price and market dynamics positive was followed by a higher price in 64.8% of cases: +6.7 points versus price and market dynamics negative and +4.6 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +1.9 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 1 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 1, "supportingHorizons": 1}, "returnDifference": 0.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.2, "probabilityDifference": 2.0}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 3946, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.0, "confidenceLow": 60.1, "expectedCount": 2433, "confidenceHigh": 63.2, "expectedPercent": 61.7}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 4395, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.9, "confidenceLow": 54.8, "expectedCount": 2475, "confidenceHigh": 57.8, "expectedPercent": 56.3}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 15025, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.1, "confidenceLow": 58.0, "expectedCount": 8829, "confidenceHigh": 59.5, "expectedPercent": 58.8}, "horizons": [{"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 4193, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.8, "confidenceLow": 54.6, "expectedCount": 2351, "confidenceHigh": 57.6, "expectedPercent": 56.1}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 4544, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.9, "confidenceLow": 50.2, "expectedCount": 2345, "confidenceHigh": 53.1, "expectedPercent": 51.6}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 15667, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.7, "confidenceLow": 50.8, "expectedCount": 8089, "confidenceHigh": 52.4, "expectedPercent": 51.6}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": -0.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 4.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.1, "probabilityDifference": 4.5}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 3946, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.0, "confidenceLow": 60.1, "expectedCount": 2433, "confidenceHigh": 63.2, "expectedPercent": 61.7}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 4395, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.9, "confidenceLow": 54.8, "expectedCount": 2475, "confidenceHigh": 57.8, "expectedPercent": 56.3}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 15025, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.1, "confidenceLow": 58.0, "expectedCount": 8829, "confidenceHigh": 59.5, "expectedPercent": 58.8}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 1.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 2.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.9, "probabilityDifference": 5.4}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 3711, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.2, "confidenceLow": 62.6, "expectedCount": 2382, "confidenceHigh": 65.7, "expectedPercent": 64.2}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 3978, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.4, "confidenceLow": 57.2, "expectedCount": 2338, "confidenceHigh": 60.3, "expectedPercent": 58.8}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 13993, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.5, "confidenceLow": 59.4, "expectedCount": 8428, "confidenceHigh": 61.0, "expectedPercent": 60.2}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 1.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 4.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.7, "probabilityDifference": 5.4}], "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use disagreement to identify prices that may be early or late relative to the underlying market behaviour.", "role": "Conditional research angle", "avoid": "Do not assume every divergence must close, or that it must close immediately.", "label": "Horizon-specific", "state": "selective", "confirm": "Wait for price to begin resolving toward Market Dynamics, or for a separate signal to confirm the change.", "headline": "Market Dynamics leading price is an early-change watchlist angle", "observed": "At 26 weeks, market dynamics stronger than price was followed by a higher price in 64.2% of cases: +5.4 points versus price stronger than market dynamics and +4.0 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +1.8 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 1 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 1, "supportingHorizons": 2}, "returnDifference": 1.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 2.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.9, "probabilityDifference": 5.4}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 481, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.6, "confidenceLow": 53.8, "expectedCount": 280, "confidenceHigh": 62.5, "expectedPercent": 58.2}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 1581, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.8, "confidenceLow": 60.8, "expectedCount": 999, "confidenceHigh": 65.5, "expectedPercent": 63.2}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 15025, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.1, "confidenceLow": 58.0, "expectedCount": 8829, "confidenceHigh": 59.5, "expectedPercent": 58.8}, "horizons": [{"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 497, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.7, "confidenceLow": 52.3, "expectedCount": 282, "confidenceHigh": 61.0, "expectedPercent": 56.7}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 1650, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.9, "confidenceLow": 55.1, "expectedCount": 949, "confidenceHigh": 59.9, "expectedPercent": 57.5}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 15667, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.7, "confidenceLow": 50.8, "expectedCount": 8089, "confidenceHigh": 52.4, "expectedPercent": 51.6}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": 0.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 5.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.0, "probabilityDifference": -0.8}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 481, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.6, "confidenceLow": 53.8, "expectedCount": 280, "confidenceHigh": 62.5, "expectedPercent": 58.2}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 1581, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.8, "confidenceLow": 60.8, "expectedCount": 999, "confidenceHigh": 65.5, "expectedPercent": 63.2}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 15025, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.1, "confidenceLow": 58.0, "expectedCount": 8829, "confidenceHigh": 59.5, "expectedPercent": 58.8}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.5, "probabilityDifference": -5.0}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 452, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.9, "confidenceLow": 54.9, "expectedCount": 269, "confidenceHigh": 63.9, "expectedPercent": 59.5}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 1404, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.0, "confidenceLow": 64.7, "expectedCount": 944, "confidenceHigh": 69.6, "expectedPercent": 67.2}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 13993, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.5, "confidenceLow": 59.4, "expectedCount": 8428, "confidenceHigh": 61.0, "expectedPercent": 60.2}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -1.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.7, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.4, "probabilityDifference": -7.7}], "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use accumulation and distribution to frame price location, patience, risk and the quality of a later signal.", "role": "Confirmation only", "avoid": "Do not buy solely because price is in accumulation or sell solely because it is in distribution.", "label": "Weak separation", "state": "weak", "confirm": "Look for a completed move out of the zone and a compatible Market Dynamics signal before treating location as timing.", "headline": "The zones describe location and risk, not a stand-alone reversal trigger", "observed": "At 4 weeks, accumulation was followed by a higher price in 56.7% of cases: -0.8 points versus distribution and +5.1 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +0.8 points.", "bestHorizon": 4, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 0 of 4 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 4, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.5, "probabilityDifference": -5.0}], "buySignalCaseStudy": {"title": "First valid Market Dynamics signal", "horizons": [{"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 1.0, "directionalEdgePoints": 6.2}, "weeks": 4, "sample": 410, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.7, "confidenceLow": 53.0, "expectedCount": 237, "confidenceHigh": 62.5, "baselinePercent": 51.6, "expectedPercent": 57.8, "baselineAverageReturn": 0.7}, {"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 2.4, "directionalEdgePoints": 10.4}, "weeks": 12, "sample": 396, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.5, "confidenceLow": 64.5, "expectedCount": 274, "confidenceHigh": 73.5, "baselinePercent": 58.8, "expectedPercent": 69.2, "baselineAverageReturn": 2.1}, {"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 8.9, "directionalEdgePoints": 27.1}, "weeks": 26, "sample": 361, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 13.4, "confidenceLow": 83.4, "expectedCount": 315, "confidenceHigh": 90.3, "baselinePercent": 60.2, "expectedPercent": 87.3, "baselineAverageReturn": 4.5}], "expectedDirection": "higher"}, "positioningOutcomes": {"accumulation": {"use": "Long positioning", "label": "Accumulation to distribution", "cycles": 143, "thresholds": [{"reached": 125, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 81.0, "confidenceHigh": 91.9, "cyclesObserved": 143, "reachedPercent": 87.4, "medianWeeksToReach": 10, "averageWeeksToReach": 23.8, "completedReachedPercent": 97.1}, {"reached": 105, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 65.6, "confidenceHigh": 80.0, "cyclesObserved": 143, "reachedPercent": 73.4, "medianWeeksToReach": 19, "averageWeeksToReach": 31.2, "completedReachedPercent": 86.5}, {"reached": 89, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 54.1, "confidenceHigh": 69.8, "cyclesObserved": 143, "reachedPercent": 62.2, "medianWeeksToReach": 49, "averageWeeksToReach": 50.9, "completedReachedPercent": 75.0}, {"reached": 67, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 38.9, "confidenceHigh": 55.0, "cyclesObserved": 143, "reachedPercent": 46.9, "medianWeeksToReach": 64, "averageWeeksToReach": 66.4, "completedReachedPercent": 57.7}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Completed cycles experienced an average adverse move of 10.7% before resolution. Position size and confirmation still matter.", "timing": "The condition lasted 7.5 weeks on average before price left accumulation, while the best advance in completed cycles occurred after 78.1 weeks on average.", "finding": "73.4% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 19 weeks); 62.2% reached 20% (median 49 weeks).", "headline": "Accumulation has been most useful as a patient long-positioning window", "application": "Use accumulation to prepare a long case, then require price confirmation before increasing conviction. The condition is a positioning context rather than a stand-alone instruction to buy.", "repeatability": "Later completed cycles resolved higher 75.0% of the time across 4 repeat cycles."}, "activeCycles": 39, "repeatedCycles": 4, "completedCycles": 104, "medianAdverseMove": 5.2, "medianCycleReturn": 32.1, "averageAdverseMove": 10.7, "averageCycleReturn": 33.6, "medianFavourableMove": 32.4, "averageFavourableMove": 34.8, "medianGrossOpportunity": 32.1, "averageGrossOpportunity": 33.6, "expectedDirectionPercent": 94.2, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": 3.13, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 85.0, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 1.3, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 92.9, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": 30.9, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 7.5, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 4, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 88.0, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 100, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 77.0, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 78.1, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 97.3, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": 75.0, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 30.1, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 95.4}, "distribution": {"use": "Downside risk and short positioning", "label": "Distribution to accumulation", "cycles": 296, "thresholds": [{"reached": 199, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 61.7, "confidenceHigh": 72.3, "cyclesObserved": 296, "reachedPercent": 67.2, "medianWeeksToReach": 15, "averageWeeksToReach": 34.3, "completedReachedPercent": 91.2}, {"reached": 141, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 42.0, "confidenceHigh": 53.3, "cyclesObserved": 296, "reachedPercent": 47.6, "medianWeeksToReach": 40, "averageWeeksToReach": 54.6, "completedReachedPercent": 83.5}, {"reached": 61, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 16.4, "confidenceHigh": 25.6, "cyclesObserved": 296, "reachedPercent": 20.6, "medianWeeksToReach": 56, "averageWeeksToReach": 56.7, "completedReachedPercent": 40.7}, {"reached": 25, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 5.8, "confidenceHigh": 12.2, "cyclesObserved": 296, "reachedPercent": 8.4, "medianWeeksToReach": 56, "averageWeeksToReach": 51.0, "completedReachedPercent": 17.6}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Price rose by 32.2% on average before completed downside cycles resolved. That adverse path makes unconfirmed or unbounded short positioning unsuitable.", "timing": "Price left distribution after 6.5 weeks on average, but the deepest reversal in completed cycles occurred after 85.8 weeks on average.", "finding": "47.6% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 40 weeks); 20.6% reached 20% (median 56 weeks).", "headline": "Distribution has been a downside warning before it has been a short entry", "application": "Use distribution first to review long exposure, protect gains and watch for downward confirmation. A short case needs price weakness and defined risk; distribution alone is not enough.", "repeatability": "Later completed cycles resolved lower 100.0% of the time across 3 repeat cycles."}, "activeCycles": 205, "repeatedCycles": 3, "completedCycles": 91, "medianAdverseMove": 22.3, "medianCycleReturn": -16.9, "averageAdverseMove": 32.2, "averageCycleReturn": -18.7, "medianFavourableMove": 17.9, "averageFavourableMove": 21.4, "medianGrossOpportunity": 16.9, "averageGrossOpportunity": 18.7, "expectedDirectionPercent": 89.0, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": 0.58, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 114, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 2.7, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 112.6, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": 33.9, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 6.5, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 3, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 80.9, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 88, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 99, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 85.8, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 93.9, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": 100.0, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 43.9, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 100.0}}}, "equity": {"label": "Mexico equities", "annual": [{"state": "mixed", "period": "2020", "tested": 5, "families": [{"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 942, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.7, "confidenceLow": 50.7, "expectedCount": 508, "confidenceHigh": 57.1, "expectedPercent": 53.9}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 840, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.8, "confidenceLow": 52.0, "expectedCount": 465, "confidenceHigh": 58.7, "expectedPercent": 55.4}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 2729, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 8.0, "confidenceLow": 59.0, "expectedCount": 1661, "confidenceHigh": 62.7, "expectedPercent": 60.9}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -1.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -7.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -5.3, "probabilityDifference": -1.5}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 2390, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.2, "confidenceLow": 56.7, "expectedCount": 1402, "confidenceHigh": 60.6, "expectedPercent": 58.7}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 2370, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.3, "confidenceLow": 58.3, "expectedCount": 1429, "confidenceHigh": 62.2, "expectedPercent": 60.3}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 2729, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 8.0, "confidenceLow": 59.0, "expectedCount": 1661, "confidenceHigh": 62.7, "expectedPercent": 60.9}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": -0.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -2.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.8, "probabilityDifference": -1.6}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 1471, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.9, "confidenceLow": 58.7, "expectedCount": 901, "confidenceHigh": 63.7, "expectedPercent": 61.3}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 1216, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.5, "confidenceLow": 57.3, "expectedCount": 731, "confidenceHigh": 62.8, "expectedPercent": 60.1}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 2729, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 8.0, "confidenceLow": 59.0, "expectedCount": 1661, "confidenceHigh": 62.7, "expectedPercent": 60.9}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 1.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.1, "probabilityDifference": 1.2}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 1284, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 9.0, "confidenceLow": 60.0, "expectedCount": 805, "confidenceHigh": 65.3, "expectedPercent": 62.7}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 1240, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.0, "confidenceLow": 57.3, "expectedCount": 745, "confidenceHigh": 62.8, "expectedPercent": 60.1}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 2729, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 8.0, "confidenceLow": 59.0, "expectedCount": 1661, "confidenceHigh": 62.7, "expectedPercent": 60.9}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 2.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.0, "probabilityDifference": 2.6}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 101, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 13.4, "confidenceLow": 53.6, "expectedCount": 64, "confidenceHigh": 72.1, "expectedPercent": 63.4}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 357, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.1, "confidenceLow": 54.5, "expectedCount": 213, "confidenceHigh": 64.6, "expectedPercent": 59.7}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 2729, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 8.0, "confidenceLow": 59.0, "expectedCount": 1661, "confidenceHigh": 62.7, "expectedPercent": 60.9}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": 6.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 2.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 5.4, "probabilityDifference": 3.7}], "supports": 0, "doesNotSupport": 2}, {"state": "doesNotSupport", "period": "2021", "tested": 5, "families": [{"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 932, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.9, "confidenceLow": 50.0, "expectedCount": 496, "confidenceHigh": 56.4, "expectedPercent": 53.2}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 970, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.6, "confidenceLow": 51.4, "expectedCount": 529, "confidenceHigh": 57.6, "expectedPercent": 54.5}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 5805, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.8, "confidenceLow": 53.9, "expectedCount": 3201, "confidenceHigh": 56.4, "expectedPercent": 55.1}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -0.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.9, "probabilityDifference": -1.3}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 2981, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.4, "confidenceLow": 52.7, "expectedCount": 1623, "confidenceHigh": 56.2, "expectedPercent": 54.4}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 2990, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.9, "confidenceLow": 55.4, "expectedCount": 1709, "confidenceHigh": 58.9, "expectedPercent": 57.2}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 5805, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.8, "confidenceLow": 53.9, "expectedCount": 3201, "confidenceHigh": 56.4, "expectedPercent": 55.1}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": -0.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.7, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.4, "probabilityDifference": -2.8}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 1838, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.4, "confidenceLow": 51.2, "expectedCount": 983, "confidenceHigh": 55.8, "expectedPercent": 53.5}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 1573, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.3, "confidenceLow": 52.8, "expectedCount": 869, "confidenceHigh": 57.7, "expectedPercent": 55.2}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 5805, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.8, "confidenceLow": 53.9, "expectedCount": 3201, "confidenceHigh": 56.4, "expectedPercent": 55.1}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 0.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.4, "probabilityDifference": -1.7}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 1622, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.4, "confidenceLow": 54.0, "expectedCount": 915, "confidenceHigh": 58.8, "expectedPercent": 56.4}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 1656, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.2, "confidenceLow": 50.0, "expectedCount": 868, "confidenceHigh": 54.8, "expectedPercent": 52.4}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market 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consistent", "averageReturn": 2.8, "confidenceLow": 53.9, "expectedCount": 3201, "confidenceHigh": 56.4, "expectedPercent": 55.1}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -6.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -8.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -7.7, "probabilityDifference": -6.0}], "supports": 0, "doesNotSupport": 3}, {"state": "doesNotSupport", "period": "2022", "tested": 5, "families": [{"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 1048, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -4.1, "confidenceLow": 34.6, "expectedCount": 393, "confidenceHigh": 40.5, "expectedPercent": 37.5}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 942, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -0.4, "confidenceLow": 42.2, "expectedCount": 427, "confidenceHigh": 48.5, "expectedPercent": 45.3}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 6866, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -2.2, "confidenceLow": 40.9, "expectedCount": 2886, "confidenceHigh": 43.2, "expectedPercent": 42.0}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -3.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -4.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.9, "probabilityDifference": -7.8}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 3110, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -2.6, "confidenceLow": 39.6, "expectedCount": 1284, "confidenceHigh": 43.0, "expectedPercent": 41.3}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 3108, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -2.0, "confidenceLow": 41.0, "expectedCount": 1328, "confidenceHigh": 44.5, "expectedPercent": 42.7}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 6866, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -2.2, "confidenceLow": 40.9, "expectedCount": 2886, "confidenceHigh": 43.2, "expectedPercent": 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"leftVsBaselinePoints": -3.7, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.5, "probabilityDifference": -5.5}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 1540, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -2.2, "confidenceLow": 40.0, "expectedCount": 654, "confidenceHigh": 45.0, "expectedPercent": 42.5}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 2044, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -3.4, "confidenceLow": 39.1, "expectedCount": 843, "confidenceHigh": 43.4, "expectedPercent": 41.2}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 6866, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -2.2, "confidenceLow": 40.9, "expectedCount": 2886, "confidenceHigh": 43.2, "expectedPercent": 42.0}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 1.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.0, "probabilityDifference": 1.3}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 437, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -2.4, "confidenceLow": 39.8, "expectedCount": 194, "confidenceHigh": 49.1, "expectedPercent": 44.4}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 396, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -3.4, "confidenceLow": 33.0, "expectedCount": 149, "confidenceHigh": 42.5, "expectedPercent": 37.6}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 6866, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -2.2, "confidenceLow": 40.9, "expectedCount": 2886, "confidenceHigh": 43.2, "expectedPercent": 42.0}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": 1.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 2.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.2, "probabilityDifference": 6.8}], "supports": 0, "doesNotSupport": 3}, {"state": "doesNotSupport", "period": "2023", "tested": 5, "families": [{"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 1013, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.0, "confidenceLow": 47.1, "expectedCount": 508, "confidenceHigh": 53.2, "expectedPercent": 50.1}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 1006, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 2.1, "confidenceLow": 49.0, "expectedCount": 524, "confidenceHigh": 55.2, "expectedPercent": 52.1}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 7531, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.2, "confidenceLow": 47.0, "expectedCount": 3624, "confidenceHigh": 49.3, "expectedPercent": 48.1}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -1.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 2.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.2, "probabilityDifference": -2.0}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 3126, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.8, "confidenceLow": 48.5, "expectedCount": 1570, "confidenceHigh": 52.0, "expectedPercent": 50.2}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 3060, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.5, "confidenceLow": 48.8, "expectedCount": 1548, "confidenceHigh": 52.4, "expectedPercent": 50.6}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 7531, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.2, "confidenceLow": 47.0, "expectedCount": 3624, "confidenceHigh": 49.3, "expectedPercent": 48.1}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": 0.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 2.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.6, "probabilityDifference": -0.4}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 1971, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 2.0, "confidenceLow": 47.8, "expectedCount": 985, "confidenceHigh": 52.2, "expectedPercent": 50.0}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 1827, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.5, "confidenceLow": 50.3, "expectedCount": 961, "confidenceHigh": 54.9, "expectedPercent": 52.6}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 7531, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.2, "confidenceLow": 47.0, "expectedCount": 3624, "confidenceHigh": 49.3, "expectedPercent": 48.1}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -0.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.8, "probabilityDifference": -2.6}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 1698, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.6, "confidenceLow": 47.2, "expectedCount": 842, "confidenceHigh": 52.0, "expectedPercent": 49.6}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 1894, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.8, "confidenceLow": 49.4, "expectedCount": 978, "confidenceHigh": 53.9, "expectedPercent": 51.6}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 7531, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.2, "confidenceLow": 47.0, "expectedCount": 3624, "confidenceHigh": 49.3, "expectedPercent": 48.1}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": -0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.4, "probabilityDifference": -2.0}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 462, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 2.1, "confidenceLow": 45.9, "expectedCount": 233, "confidenceHigh": 55.0, "expectedPercent": 50.4}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 328, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.0, "confidenceLow": 52.2, "expectedCount": 189, "confidenceHigh": 62.9, "expectedPercent": 57.6}, "state": 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The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was -0.1 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 0 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -0.6, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.9, "probabilityDifference": -2.0}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 20358, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.7, "confidenceLow": 50.8, "expectedCount": 10472, "confidenceHigh": 52.1, "expectedPercent": 51.4}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 20254, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.9, "confidenceLow": 51.9, "expectedCount": 10658, "confidenceHigh": 53.3, "expectedPercent": 52.6}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 42582, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.6, "confidenceLow": 50.3, "expectedCount": 21641, "confidenceHigh": 51.3, "expectedPercent": 50.8}, "horizons": [{"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 20912, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.0, "confidenceLow": 46.5, "expectedCount": 9868, "confidenceHigh": 47.9, "expectedPercent": 47.2}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 20866, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.0, "confidenceLow": 46.9, "expectedCount": 9931, "confidenceHigh": 48.3, "expectedPercent": 47.6}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 43903, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.9, "confidenceLow": 44.5, "expectedCount": 19735, "confidenceHigh": 45.4, "expectedPercent": 45.0}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": 0.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 2.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.1, "probabilityDifference": -0.4}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 20358, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.7, "confidenceLow": 50.8, "expectedCount": 10472, "confidenceHigh": 52.1, "expectedPercent": 51.4}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 20254, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.9, "confidenceLow": 51.9, "expectedCount": 10658, "confidenceHigh": 53.3, "expectedPercent": 52.6}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 42582, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.6, "confidenceLow": 50.3, "expectedCount": 21641, "confidenceHigh": 51.3, "expectedPercent": 50.8}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": -0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.1, "probabilityDifference": -1.2}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 19247, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.4, "confidenceLow": 53.3, "expectedCount": 10388, "confidenceHigh": 54.7, "expectedPercent": 54.0}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 19256, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.4, "confidenceLow": 53.3, "expectedCount": 10400, "confidenceHigh": 54.7, "expectedPercent": 54.0}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 40118, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.5, "confidenceLow": 52.1, "expectedCount": 21087, "confidenceHigh": 53.1, "expectedPercent": 52.6}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": 0.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.9, "probabilityDifference": 0.0}], "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use strengthening or weakening to judge whether an existing price move is gaining or losing support.", "role": "Context and risk control", "avoid": "Do not act on a one-period change without checking whether the price structure agrees.", "label": "No standalone edge", "state": "none", "confirm": "Look for persistence in the change and a compatible response from price before increasing conviction.", "headline": "Strengthening and weakening are confirmation, not timing signals alone", "observed": "At 4 weeks, strengthening was followed by a higher price in 47.2% of cases: -0.4 points versus weakening and +2.2 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +0.0 points.", "bestHorizon": 4, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 0 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.1, "probabilityDifference": -1.2}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 12088, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.9, "confidenceLow": 50.5, "expectedCount": 6207, "confidenceHigh": 52.2, "expectedPercent": 51.3}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 11536, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.3, "confidenceLow": 50.8, "expectedCount": 5963, "confidenceHigh": 52.6, "expectedPercent": 51.7}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 42582, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.6, "confidenceLow": 50.3, "expectedCount": 21641, "confidenceHigh": 51.3, "expectedPercent": 50.8}, "horizons": [{"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 12461, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.8, "confidenceLow": 45.4, "expectedCount": 5764, "confidenceHigh": 47.1, "expectedPercent": 46.3}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 11936, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 0.8, "confidenceLow": 48.3, "expectedCount": 5871, "confidenceHigh": 50.1, "expectedPercent": 49.2}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 43903, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.9, "confidenceLow": 44.5, "expectedCount": 19735, "confidenceHigh": 45.4, "expectedPercent": 45.0}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 0.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.1, "probabilityDifference": -2.9}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 12088, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.9, "confidenceLow": 50.5, "expectedCount": 6207, "confidenceHigh": 52.2, "expectedPercent": 51.3}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 11536, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.3, "confidenceLow": 50.8, "expectedCount": 5963, "confidenceHigh": 52.6, "expectedPercent": 51.7}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 42582, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.6, "confidenceLow": 50.3, "expectedCount": 21641, "confidenceHigh": 51.3, "expectedPercent": 50.8}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 0.6, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.3, "probabilityDifference": -0.4}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 11496, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.9, "confidenceLow": 53.9, "expectedCount": 6299, "confidenceHigh": 55.7, "expectedPercent": 54.8}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 10815, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.0, "confidenceLow": 51.4, "expectedCount": 5663, "confidenceHigh": 53.3, "expectedPercent": 52.4}, "state": "supports", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 40118, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.5, "confidenceLow": 52.1, "expectedCount": 21087, "confidenceHigh": 53.1, "expectedPercent": 52.6}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 1.9, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 2.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.4, "probabilityDifference": 2.4}], "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use agreement to distinguish supported trends from moves that lack confirmation.", "role": "Conditional research angle", "avoid": "Do not confuse alignment with certainty; an aligned market can still reverse.", "label": "Horizon-specific", "state": "selective", "confirm": "Check that the advantage remains visible beyond the shortest horizon and repeats across completed years.", "headline": "Agreement improves conviction at the horizons where it persists", "observed": "At 26 weeks, price and market dynamics positive was followed by a higher price in 54.8% of cases: +2.4 points versus price and market dynamics negative and +2.2 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +1.9 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 0 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 1}, "returnDifference": 0.6, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.3, "probabilityDifference": -0.4}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 10882, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.2, "confidenceLow": 51.9, "expectedCount": 5747, "confidenceHigh": 53.7, "expectedPercent": 52.8}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 11763, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 2.2, "confidenceLow": 49.9, "expectedCount": 5972, "confidenceHigh": 51.7, "expectedPercent": 50.8}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 42582, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.6, "confidenceLow": 50.3, "expectedCount": 21641, "confidenceHigh": 51.3, "expectedPercent": 50.8}, "horizons": [{"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 11275, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 0.9, "confidenceLow": 48.7, "expectedCount": 5595, "confidenceHigh": 50.5, "expectedPercent": 49.6}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 12180, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.8, "confidenceLow": 45.5, "expectedCount": 5650, "confidenceHigh": 47.3, "expectedPercent": 46.4}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 43903, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.9, "confidenceLow": 44.5, "expectedCount": 19735, "confidenceHigh": 45.4, "expectedPercent": 45.0}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 0.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 4.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.0, "probabilityDifference": 3.2}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 10882, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.2, "confidenceLow": 51.9, "expectedCount": 5747, "confidenceHigh": 53.7, "expectedPercent": 52.8}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 11763, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 2.2, "confidenceLow": 49.9, "expectedCount": 5972, "confidenceHigh": 51.7, "expectedPercent": 50.8}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 42582, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.6, "confidenceLow": 50.3, "expectedCount": 21641, "confidenceHigh": 51.3, "expectedPercent": 50.8}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 1.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 2.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.6, "probabilityDifference": 2.0}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 10365, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.0, "confidenceLow": 54.1, "expectedCount": 5710, "confidenceHigh": 56.0, "expectedPercent": 55.1}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 11015, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.1, "confidenceLow": 50.9, "expectedCount": 5706, "confidenceHigh": 52.7, "expectedPercent": 51.8}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 40118, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.5, "confidenceLow": 52.1, "expectedCount": 21087, "confidenceHigh": 53.1, "expectedPercent": 52.6}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 1.9, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 2.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.5, "probabilityDifference": 3.3}], "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use disagreement to identify prices that may be early or late relative to the underlying market behaviour.", "role": "Conditional research angle", "avoid": "Do not assume every divergence must close, or that it must close immediately.", "label": "Horizon-specific", "state": "selective", "confirm": "Wait for price to begin resolving toward Market Dynamics, or for a separate signal to confirm the change.", "headline": "Market Dynamics leading price is an early-change watchlist angle", "observed": "At 26 weeks, market dynamics stronger than price was followed by a higher price in 55.1% of cases: +3.3 points versus price stronger than market dynamics and +2.5 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +1.9 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 0 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 3}, "returnDifference": 1.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 2.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.6, "probabilityDifference": 2.0}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 1995, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 2.1, "confidenceLow": 48.7, "expectedCount": 1015, "confidenceHigh": 53.1, "expectedPercent": 50.9}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 3726, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.0, "confidenceLow": 51.4, "expectedCount": 1975, "confidenceHigh": 54.6, "expectedPercent": 53.0}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 42582, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.6, "confidenceLow": 50.3, "expectedCount": 21641, "confidenceHigh": 51.3, "expectedPercent": 50.8}, "horizons": [{"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 2074, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.5, "confidenceLow": 47.2, "expectedCount": 1024, "confidenceHigh": 51.5, "expectedPercent": 49.4}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 3842, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 0.9, "confidenceLow": 48.2, "expectedCount": 1912, "confidenceHigh": 51.3, "expectedPercent": 49.8}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 43903, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.9, "confidenceLow": 44.5, "expectedCount": 19735, "confidenceHigh": 45.4, "expectedPercent": 45.0}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": 0.6, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 4.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.6, "probabilityDifference": -0.4}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 1995, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 2.1, "confidenceLow": 48.7, "expectedCount": 1015, "confidenceHigh": 53.1, "expectedPercent": 50.9}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 3726, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.0, "confidenceLow": 51.4, "expectedCount": 1975, "confidenceHigh": 54.6, "expectedPercent": 53.0}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 42582, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.6, "confidenceLow": 50.3, "expectedCount": 21641, "confidenceHigh": 51.3, "expectedPercent": 50.8}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -0.9, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.5, "probabilityDifference": -2.1}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 1852, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 4.2, "confidenceLow": 50.0, "expectedCount": 968, "confidenceHigh": 54.5, "expectedPercent": 52.3}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 3501, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.5, "confidenceLow": 53.4, "expectedCount": 1927, "confidenceHigh": 56.7, "expectedPercent": 55.0}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 40118, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.5, "confidenceLow": 52.1, "expectedCount": 21087, "confidenceHigh": 53.1, "expectedPercent": 52.6}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -2.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.3, "probabilityDifference": -2.7}], "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use accumulation and distribution to frame price location, patience, risk and the quality of a later signal.", "role": "Confirmation only", "avoid": "Do not buy solely because price is in accumulation or sell solely because it is in distribution.", "label": "Weak separation", "state": "weak", "confirm": "Look for a completed move out of the zone and a compatible Market Dynamics signal before treating location as timing.", "headline": "The zones describe location and risk, not a stand-alone reversal trigger", "observed": "At 4 weeks, accumulation was followed by a higher price in 49.4% of cases: -0.4 points versus distribution and +4.4 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +0.6 points.", "bestHorizon": 4, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 0 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -0.9, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.5, "probabilityDifference": -2.1}], "buySignalCaseStudy": {"title": "First valid Market Dynamics signal", "horizons": [{"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 3.3, "directionalEdgePoints": 12.4}, "weeks": 4, "sample": 1024, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.2, "confidenceLow": 54.4, "expectedCount": 588, "confidenceHigh": 60.4, "baselinePercent": 45.0, "expectedPercent": 57.4, "baselineAverageReturn": 0.9}, {"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 9.5, "directionalEdgePoints": 17.8}, "weeks": 12, "sample": 974, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 12.1, "confidenceLow": 65.6, "expectedCount": 668, "confidenceHigh": 71.4, "baselinePercent": 50.8, "expectedPercent": 68.6, "baselineAverageReturn": 2.6}, {"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 18.1, "directionalEdgePoints": 26.0}, "weeks": 26, "sample": 893, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 23.6, "confidenceLow": 75.8, "expectedCount": 702, "confidenceHigh": 81.2, "baselinePercent": 52.6, "expectedPercent": 78.6, "baselineAverageReturn": 5.5}], "expectedDirection": "higher"}, "positioningOutcomes": {"accumulation": {"use": "Long positioning", "label": "Accumulation to distribution", "cycles": 520, "thresholds": [{"reached": 431, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 79.4, "confidenceHigh": 85.9, "cyclesObserved": 520, "reachedPercent": 82.9, "medianWeeksToReach": 6, "averageWeeksToReach": 17.5, "completedReachedPercent": 93.6}, {"reached": 392, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 71.5, "confidenceHigh": 78.9, "cyclesObserved": 520, "reachedPercent": 75.4, "medianWeeksToReach": 11.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 25.1, "completedReachedPercent": 90.2}, {"reached": 329, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 59.0, "confidenceHigh": 67.3, "cyclesObserved": 520, "reachedPercent": 63.3, "medianWeeksToReach": 22, "averageWeeksToReach": 36.9, "completedReachedPercent": 81.1}, {"reached": 269, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 47.4, "confidenceHigh": 56.0, "cyclesObserved": 520, "reachedPercent": 51.7, "medianWeeksToReach": 33, "averageWeeksToReach": 45.4, "completedReachedPercent": 68.6}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Completed cycles experienced an average adverse move of 20.6% before resolution. Position size and confirmation still matter.", "timing": "The condition lasted 9.0 weeks on average before price left accumulation, while the best advance in completed cycles occurred after 68.0 weeks on average.", "finding": "75.4% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 11 weeks); 63.3% reached 20% (median 22 weeks).", "headline": "Accumulation has been most useful as a patient long-positioning window", "application": "Use accumulation to prepare a long case, then require price confirmation before increasing conviction. The condition is a positioning context rather than a stand-alone instruction to buy.", "repeatability": "Later completed cycles resolved higher 95.7% of the time across 23 repeat cycles."}, "activeCycles": 224, "repeatedCycles": 23, "completedCycles": 296, "medianAdverseMove": 11.4, "medianCycleReturn": 44.0, "averageAdverseMove": 20.6, "averageCycleReturn": 52.6, "medianFavourableMove": 45.3, "averageFavourableMove": 57.4, "medianGrossOpportunity": 44.0, "averageGrossOpportunity": 52.6, "expectedDirectionPercent": 89.5, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": 2.56, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 92.0, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 4.7, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 100.3, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": 61.4, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 9.0, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 21, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 85.5, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 273, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 65.5, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 68.0, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 92.5, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": 95.7, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 79.0, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 99.2}, "distribution": {"use": "Downside risk and short positioning", "label": "Distribution to accumulation", "cycles": 682, "thresholds": [{"reached": 550, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 77.5, "confidenceHigh": 83.4, "cyclesObserved": 682, "reachedPercent": 80.6, "medianWeeksToReach": 8.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 22.4, "completedReachedPercent": 92.1}, {"reached": 465, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 64.6, "confidenceHigh": 71.6, "cyclesObserved": 682, "reachedPercent": 68.2, "medianWeeksToReach": 15, "averageWeeksToReach": 32.0, "completedReachedPercent": 85.2}, {"reached": 346, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 47.0, "confidenceHigh": 54.5, "cyclesObserved": 682, "reachedPercent": 50.7, "medianWeeksToReach": 33.5, "averageWeeksToReach": 44.0, "completedReachedPercent": 69.2}, {"reached": 190, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 24.6, "confidenceHigh": 31.3, "cyclesObserved": 682, "reachedPercent": 27.9, "medianWeeksToReach": 45.5, "averageWeeksToReach": 51.1, "completedReachedPercent": 44.0}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Price rose by 56.0% on average before completed downside cycles resolved. That adverse path makes unconfirmed or unbounded short positioning unsuitable.", "timing": "Price left distribution after 6.3 weeks on average, but the deepest reversal in completed cycles occurred after 68.6 weeks on average.", "finding": "68.2% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 15 weeks); 50.7% reached 20% (median 33.5 weeks).", "headline": "Distribution has been a downside warning before it has been a short entry", "application": "Use distribution first to review long exposure, protect gains and watch for downward confirmation. A short case needs price weakness and defined risk; distribution alone is not enough.", "repeatability": "Later completed cycles resolved lower 100.0% of the time across 40 repeat cycles."}, "activeCycles": 364, "repeatedCycles": 40, "completedCycles": 318, "medianAdverseMove": 25.1, "medianCycleReturn": -26.6, "averageAdverseMove": 56.0, "averageCycleReturn": -21.4, "medianFavourableMove": 27.4, "averageFavourableMove": 29.3, "medianGrossOpportunity": 26.6, "averageGrossOpportunity": 21.4, "expectedDirectionPercent": 85.5, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": 0.38, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 95.0, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 7.9, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 104.4, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": 38.2, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 6.3, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 39, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 81.2, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 278, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 64.0, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 68.6, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 89.0, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": 100.0, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 91.2, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 100.0}}}}}, "methodBoundary": "Public outcomes and sample sizes only. Proprietary signal construction is not disclosed."}