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The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +0.3 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 0 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.8, "probabilityDifference": -1.0}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 864, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 4.0, "confidenceLow": 49.1, "expectedCount": 453, "confidenceHigh": 55.7, "expectedPercent": 52.4}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 885, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.6, "confidenceLow": 53.9, "expectedCount": 506, "confidenceHigh": 60.4, "expectedPercent": 57.2}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 2600, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.1, "confidenceLow": 53.9, "expectedCount": 1451, "confidenceHigh": 57.7, "expectedPercent": 55.8}, "horizons": [{"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 886, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.1, "confidenceLow": 42.2, "expectedCount": 403, "confidenceHigh": 48.8, "expectedPercent": 45.5}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 906, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.3, "confidenceLow": 47.4, "expectedCount": 459, "confidenceHigh": 53.9, "expectedPercent": 50.7}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 2666, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.7, "confidenceLow": 48.5, "expectedCount": 1344, "confidenceHigh": 52.3, "expectedPercent": 50.4}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -4.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.6, "probabilityDifference": -5.2}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 864, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 4.0, "confidenceLow": 49.1, "expectedCount": 453, "confidenceHigh": 55.7, "expectedPercent": 52.4}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 885, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.6, "confidenceLow": 53.9, "expectedCount": 506, "confidenceHigh": 60.4, "expectedPercent": 57.2}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 2600, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.1, "confidenceLow": 53.9, "expectedCount": 1451, "confidenceHigh": 57.7, "expectedPercent": 55.8}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 0.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -3.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.1, "probabilityDifference": -4.8}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 832, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 10.8, "confidenceLow": 57.1, "expectedCount": 503, "confidenceHigh": 63.7, "expectedPercent": 60.5}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 831, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 10.3, "confidenceLow": 58.4, "expectedCount": 513, "confidenceHigh": 65.0, "expectedPercent": 61.7}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 2500, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 11.9, "confidenceLow": 60.1, "expectedCount": 1550, "confidenceHigh": 63.9, "expectedPercent": 62.0}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 0.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.1, "probabilityDifference": -1.2}], "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use agreement to distinguish supported trends from moves that lack confirmation.", "role": "Confirmation only", "avoid": "Do not confuse alignment with certainty; an aligned market can still reverse.", "label": "Weak separation", "state": "weak", "confirm": "Check that the advantage remains visible beyond the shortest horizon and repeats across completed years.", "headline": "Agreement describes alignment, but does not select direction by itself", "observed": "At 26 weeks, price and market dynamics positive was followed by a higher price in 60.5% of cases: -1.2 points versus price and market dynamics negative and -1.5 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +0.5 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 0 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": 0.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -3.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.1, "probabilityDifference": -4.8}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 812, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.7, "confidenceLow": 53.2, "expectedCount": 460, "confidenceHigh": 60.0, "expectedPercent": 56.7}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 872, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.4, "confidenceLow": 50.2, "expectedCount": 467, "confidenceHigh": 56.8, "expectedPercent": 53.6}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 2600, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.1, "confidenceLow": 53.9, "expectedCount": 1451, "confidenceHigh": 57.7, "expectedPercent": 55.8}, "horizons": [{"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 827, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.7, "confidenceLow": 50.9, "expectedCount": 449, "confidenceHigh": 57.7, "expectedPercent": 54.3}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 897, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.0, "confidenceLow": 43.7, "expectedCount": 421, "confidenceHigh": 50.2, "expectedPercent": 46.9}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 2666, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.7, "confidenceLow": 48.5, "expectedCount": 1344, "confidenceHigh": 52.3, "expectedPercent": 50.4}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 0.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 3.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.0, "probabilityDifference": 7.4}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 812, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.7, "confidenceLow": 53.2, "expectedCount": 460, "confidenceHigh": 60.0, "expectedPercent": 56.7}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 872, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.4, "confidenceLow": 50.2, "expectedCount": 467, "confidenceHigh": 56.8, "expectedPercent": 53.6}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 2600, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.1, "confidenceLow": 53.9, "expectedCount": 1451, "confidenceHigh": 57.7, "expectedPercent": 55.8}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 1.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.4, "probabilityDifference": 3.1}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 787, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 10.7, "confidenceLow": 58.3, "expectedCount": 486, "confidenceHigh": 65.1, "expectedPercent": 61.8}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 822, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 10.1, "confidenceLow": 56.3, "expectedCount": 491, "confidenceHigh": 63.0, "expectedPercent": 59.7}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 2500, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 11.9, "confidenceLow": 60.1, "expectedCount": 1550, "confidenceHigh": 63.9, "expectedPercent": 62.0}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 0.6, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.2, "probabilityDifference": 2.1}], "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use disagreement to identify prices that may be early or late relative to the underlying market behaviour.", "role": "Conditional research angle", "avoid": "Do not assume every divergence must close, or that it must close immediately.", "label": "Horizon-specific", "state": "selective", "confirm": "Wait for price to begin resolving toward Market Dynamics, or for a separate signal to confirm the change.", "headline": "Market Dynamics leading price is an early-change watchlist angle", "observed": "At 4 weeks, market dynamics stronger than price was followed by a higher price in 54.3% of cases: +7.4 points versus price stronger than market dynamics and +3.9 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +0.7 points.", "bestHorizon": 4, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 0 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 1}, "returnDifference": 1.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.4, "probabilityDifference": 3.1}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 77, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 11.5, "confidenceLow": 48.6, "expectedCount": 46, "confidenceHigh": 70.0, "expectedPercent": 59.7}, "label": "More history needed", "right": {"sample": 319, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.7, "confidenceLow": 51.3, "expectedCount": 181, "confidenceHigh": 62.1, "expectedPercent": 56.7}, "state": "building", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 2600, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.1, "confidenceLow": 53.9, "expectedCount": 1451, "confidenceHigh": 57.7, "expectedPercent": 55.8}, "horizons": [{"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 77, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 3.7, "confidenceLow": 42.2, "expectedCount": 41, "confidenceHigh": 64.0, "expectedPercent": 53.2}, "label": "More history needed", "right": {"sample": 325, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.8, "confidenceLow": 44.7, "expectedCount": 163, "confidenceHigh": 55.6, "expectedPercent": 50.2}, "state": "building", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 2666, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.7, "confidenceLow": 48.5, "expectedCount": 1344, "confidenceHigh": 52.3, "expectedPercent": 50.4}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": 1.9, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 2.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 2.0, "probabilityDifference": 3.0}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 77, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 11.5, "confidenceLow": 48.6, "expectedCount": 46, "confidenceHigh": 70.0, "expectedPercent": 59.7}, "label": "More history needed", "right": {"sample": 319, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.7, "confidenceLow": 51.3, "expectedCount": 181, "confidenceHigh": 62.1, "expectedPercent": 56.7}, "state": "building", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 2600, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.1, "confidenceLow": 53.9, "expectedCount": 1451, "confidenceHigh": 57.7, "expectedPercent": 55.8}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": 4.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 3.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 6.4, "probabilityDifference": 3.0}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 77, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 19.0, "confidenceLow": 56.5, "expectedCount": 52, "confidenceHigh": 76.9, "expectedPercent": 67.5}, "label": "More history needed", "right": {"sample": 295, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 16.5, "confidenceLow": 57.1, "expectedCount": 185, "confidenceHigh": 68.0, "expectedPercent": 62.7}, "state": "building", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 2500, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 11.9, "confidenceLow": 60.1, "expectedCount": 1550, "confidenceHigh": 63.9, "expectedPercent": 62.0}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": 2.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 5.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 7.1, "probabilityDifference": 4.8}], "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use accumulation and distribution to frame price location, patience, risk and the quality of a later signal.", "role": "Observation only", "avoid": "Do not buy solely because price is in accumulation or sell solely because it is in distribution.", "label": "More history needed", "state": "building", "confirm": "Look for a completed move out of the zone and a compatible Market Dynamics signal before treating location as timing.", "headline": "The zones describe location and risk, not a stand-alone reversal trigger", "observed": "At 26 weeks, accumulation was followed by a higher price in 67.5% of cases: +4.8 points versus distribution and +5.5 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +2.5 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "There are not yet enough completed calendar-period tests to judge persistence.", "measuredYears": 0, "testedHorizons": 0, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": 4.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 3.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 6.4, "probabilityDifference": 3.0}], "buySignalCaseStudy": {"title": "First valid Market Dynamics signal", "horizons": [{"test": {"label": "More history needed", "state": "building", "returnDifference": 3.0, "directionalEdgePoints": 13.5}, "weeks": 4, "sample": 61, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.7, "confidenceLow": 51.4, "expectedCount": 39, "confidenceHigh": 74.8, "baselinePercent": 50.4, "expectedPercent": 63.9, "baselineAverageReturn": 1.7}, {"test": {"label": "More history needed", "state": "building", "returnDifference": 7.6, "directionalEdgePoints": 16.3}, "weeks": 12, "sample": 61, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 12.7, "confidenceLow": 59.8, "expectedCount": 44, "confidenceHigh": 81.8, "baselinePercent": 55.8, "expectedPercent": 72.1, "baselineAverageReturn": 5.1}, {"test": {"label": "More history needed", "state": "building", "returnDifference": 17.1, "directionalEdgePoints": 16.3}, "weeks": 26, "sample": 60, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 29.0, "confidenceLow": 66.4, "expectedCount": 47, "confidenceHigh": 86.9, "baselinePercent": 62.0, "expectedPercent": 78.3, "baselineAverageReturn": 11.9}], "expectedDirection": "higher"}, "positioningOutcomes": {"accumulation": {"use": "Long positioning", "label": "Accumulation to distribution", "cycles": 18, "thresholds": [{"reached": 17, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 74.2, "confidenceHigh": 99.0, "cyclesObserved": 18, "reachedPercent": 94.4, "medianWeeksToReach": 3, "averageWeeksToReach": 18.1, "completedReachedPercent": 100.0}, {"reached": 17, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 74.2, "confidenceHigh": 99.0, "cyclesObserved": 18, "reachedPercent": 94.4, "medianWeeksToReach": 9, "averageWeeksToReach": 25.7, "completedReachedPercent": 100.0}, {"reached": 14, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 54.8, "confidenceHigh": 91.0, "cyclesObserved": 18, "reachedPercent": 77.8, "medianWeeksToReach": 18.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 37.9, "completedReachedPercent": 86.7}, {"reached": 13, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 49.1, "confidenceHigh": 87.5, "cyclesObserved": 18, "reachedPercent": 72.2, "medianWeeksToReach": 46, "averageWeeksToReach": 52.3, "completedReachedPercent": 80.0}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Completed cycles experienced an average adverse move of 15.8% before resolution. Position size and confirmation still matter.", "timing": "The condition lasted 5.5 weeks on average before price left accumulation, while the best advance in completed cycles occurred after 74.7 weeks on average.", "finding": "94.4% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 9 weeks); 77.8% reached 20% (median 18 weeks).", "headline": "Accumulation has been most useful as a patient long-positioning window", "application": "Use accumulation to prepare a long case, then require price confirmation before increasing conviction. The condition is a positioning context rather than a stand-alone instruction to buy.", "repeatability": "Later completed cycles resolved higher 100.0% of the time across 3 repeat cycles."}, "activeCycles": 3, "repeatedCycles": 3, "completedCycles": 15, "medianAdverseMove": 12.0, "medianCycleReturn": 50.0, "averageAdverseMove": 15.8, "averageCycleReturn": 51.5, "medianFavourableMove": 50.0, "averageFavourableMove": 51.5, "medianGrossOpportunity": 50.0, "averageGrossOpportunity": 51.5, "expectedDirectionPercent": 100.0, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": 3.25, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 73, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 0.0, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 88.1, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": 57.3, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 5.5, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 3, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 79.6, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 12, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 71, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 74.7, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 100.0, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": 100.0, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 43.9, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 100.0}, "distribution": {"use": "Downside risk and short positioning", "label": "Distribution to accumulation", "cycles": 39, "thresholds": [{"reached": 28, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 56.2, "confidenceHigh": 83.5, "cyclesObserved": 39, "reachedPercent": 71.8, "medianWeeksToReach": 4.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 11.5, "completedReachedPercent": 80.0}, {"reached": 24, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 45.9, "confidenceHigh": 75.1, "cyclesObserved": 39, "reachedPercent": 61.5, "medianWeeksToReach": 8.5, "averageWeeksToReach": 13.2, "completedReachedPercent": 70.0}, {"reached": 14, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 22.7, "confidenceHigh": 51.6, "cyclesObserved": 39, "reachedPercent": 35.9, "medianWeeksToReach": 14.5, "averageWeeksToReach": 26.8, "completedReachedPercent": 70.0}, {"reached": 8, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 10.8, "confidenceHigh": 35.5, "cyclesObserved": 39, "reachedPercent": 20.5, "medianWeeksToReach": 21.5, "averageWeeksToReach": 28.2, "completedReachedPercent": 60.0}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Price rose by 29.9% on average before completed downside cycles resolved. That adverse path makes unconfirmed or unbounded short positioning unsuitable.", "timing": "Price left distribution after 7.2 weeks on average, but the deepest reversal in completed cycles occurred after 87.7 weeks on average.", "finding": "61.5% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 8.5 weeks); 35.9% reached 20% (median 14.5 weeks).", "headline": "Distribution has been a downside warning before it has been a short entry", "application": "Use distribution first to review long exposure, protect gains and watch for downward confirmation. A short case needs price weakness and defined risk; distribution alone is not enough.", "repeatability": "More repeat cycles are needed before persistence at later price levels can be judged."}, "activeCycles": 29, "repeatedCycles": 0, "completedCycles": 10, "medianAdverseMove": 22.4, "medianCycleReturn": -38.3, "averageAdverseMove": 29.9, "averageCycleReturn": -25.4, "medianFavourableMove": 38.3, "averageFavourableMove": 29.3, "medianGrossOpportunity": 38.3, "averageGrossOpportunity": 25.4, "expectedDirectionPercent": 80.0, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": 0.85, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 135.5, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 3.9, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 129.6, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": null, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 7.2, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 0, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 49.0, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 10, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 105.5, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 87.7, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 94.3, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": null, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": null, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": null}}}, "etf": {"label": "Portugal ETFs", "annual": [], "regimes": {"priceAhead": {"kind": "disagreement", "path": [{"week": 0, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 1, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 2, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 3, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 4, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 5, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 6, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 7, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 8, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 9, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 10, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 11, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 12, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 13, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 14, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 15, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 16, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 17, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 18, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 19, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 20, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 21, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 22, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 23, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 24, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 25, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 26, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}], "label": "Price positive, Market Dynamics cautious", "episodes": 0, "horizons": [{"test": {"label": "More history needed", "state": "building", "returnDifference": null, "directionalEdgePoints": null}, "weeks": 4, "sample": 0, "confidence": "Not enough evidence", "averageReturn": null, "confidenceLow": null, "expectedCount": 0, "confidenceHigh": null, "baselinePercent": null, "expectedPercent": null, "baselineAverageReturn": null}, {"test": {"label": "More history needed", "state": "building", "returnDifference": null, "directionalEdgePoints": null}, "weeks": 12, "sample": 0, "confidence": "Not enough evidence", "averageReturn": null, "confidenceLow": null, "expectedCount": 0, "confidenceHigh": null, "baselinePercent": null, "expectedPercent": null, "baselineAverageReturn": null}, {"test": {"label": "More history needed", "state": "building", "returnDifference": null, "directionalEdgePoints": null}, "weeks": 26, "sample": 0, "confidence": "Not enough evidence", "averageReturn": null, "confidenceLow": null, "expectedCount": 0, "confidenceHigh": null, "baselinePercent": null, "expectedPercent": null, "baselineAverageReturn": null}], "activeEpisodes": 0, "completedEpisodes": 0, "expectedDirection": "lower", "averageExpectedMove": null, "averageWeeksToLargestMove": null}, "dynamicsAhead": {"kind": "disagreement", "path": [{"week": 0, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 1, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 2, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 3, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 4, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 5, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 6, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 7, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 8, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 9, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 10, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 11, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 12, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 13, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 14, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 15, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 16, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 17, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 18, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 19, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 20, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 21, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 22, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 23, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 24, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 25, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 26, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}], "label": "Price cautious, Market Dynamics positive", "episodes": 0, "horizons": [{"test": {"label": "More history needed", "state": "building", "returnDifference": null, "directionalEdgePoints": null}, "weeks": 4, "sample": 0, "confidence": "Not enough evidence", "averageReturn": null, "confidenceLow": null, "expectedCount": 0, "confidenceHigh": null, "baselinePercent": null, "expectedPercent": null, "baselineAverageReturn": null}, {"test": {"label": "More history needed", "state": "building", "returnDifference": null, "directionalEdgePoints": null}, "weeks": 12, "sample": 0, "confidence": "Not enough evidence", "averageReturn": null, "confidenceLow": null, "expectedCount": 0, "confidenceHigh": null, "baselinePercent": null, "expectedPercent": null, "baselineAverageReturn": null}, {"test": {"label": "More history needed", "state": "building", "returnDifference": null, "directionalEdgePoints": null}, "weeks": 26, "sample": 0, "confidence": "Not enough evidence", "averageReturn": null, "confidenceLow": null, "expectedCount": 0, "confidenceHigh": null, "baselinePercent": null, "expectedPercent": null, "baselineAverageReturn": null}], "activeEpisodes": 0, "completedEpisodes": 0, "expectedDirection": "higher", "averageExpectedMove": null, "averageWeeksToLargestMove": null}, "alignedNegative": {"kind": "aligned", "path": [{"week": 0, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 1, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 2, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 3, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 4, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 5, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 6, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 7, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 8, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 9, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 10, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 11, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 12, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 13, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 14, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 15, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 16, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 17, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 18, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 19, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 20, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 21, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 22, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 23, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 24, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 25, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 26, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}], "label": "Price and Market 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null}, {"week": 14, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 15, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 16, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 17, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 18, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 19, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 20, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 21, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 22, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 23, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 24, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 25, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 26, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}], "label": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "episodes": 0, "horizons": [{"test": {"label": "More history needed", "state": "building", "returnDifference": null, "directionalEdgePoints": null}, "weeks": 4, "sample": 0, "confidence": "Not enough evidence", "averageReturn": null, "confidenceLow": null, "expectedCount": 0, "confidenceHigh": 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{"sample": 0, "confidence": "Not enough evidence", "averageReturn": null, "confidenceLow": null, "expectedCount": 0, "confidenceHigh": null, "expectedPercent": null}, "state": "building", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 0, "confidence": "Not enough evidence", "averageReturn": null, "confidenceLow": null, "expectedCount": 0, "confidenceHigh": null, "expectedPercent": null}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": null, "leftVsBaselinePoints": null, "leftVsBaselineReturn": null, "probabilityDifference": null}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 0, "confidence": "Not enough evidence", "averageReturn": null, "confidenceLow": null, "expectedCount": 0, "confidenceHigh": null, "expectedPercent": null}, "label": "More history needed", "right": {"sample": 0, "confidence": "Not enough evidence", "averageReturn": null, "confidenceLow": null, "expectedCount": 0, "confidenceHigh": null, "expectedPercent": null}, "state": "building", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 0, "confidence": "Not enough evidence", "averageReturn": null, "confidenceLow": null, "expectedCount": 0, "confidenceHigh": null, "expectedPercent": null}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": null, "leftVsBaselinePoints": null, "leftVsBaselineReturn": null, "probabilityDifference": null}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 0, "confidence": "Not enough evidence", "averageReturn": null, "confidenceLow": null, "expectedCount": 0, "confidenceHigh": null, "expectedPercent": null}, "label": "More history needed", "right": {"sample": 0, "confidence": "Not enough evidence", "averageReturn": null, "confidenceLow": null, "expectedCount": 0, "confidenceHigh": null, "expectedPercent": null}, "state": "building", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 0, "confidence": "Not enough evidence", "averageReturn": null, "confidenceLow": null, "expectedCount": 0, "confidenceHigh": null, "expectedPercent": null}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": null, "leftVsBaselinePoints": null, "leftVsBaselineReturn": null, "probabilityDifference": null}], "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use accumulation and distribution to frame price location, patience, risk and the quality of a later signal.", "role": "Observation only", "avoid": "Do not buy solely because price is in accumulation or sell solely because it is in distribution.", "label": "More history needed", "state": "building", "confirm": "Look for a completed move out of the zone and a compatible Market Dynamics signal before treating location as timing.", "headline": "The zones describe location and risk, not a stand-alone reversal trigger", "observed": "There is not yet enough completed evidence to compare this condition reliably.", "bestHorizon": null, "persistence": "There are not yet enough completed calendar-period tests to judge persistence.", "measuredYears": 0, "testedHorizons": 0, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": null, "leftVsBaselinePoints": null, "leftVsBaselineReturn": null, "probabilityDifference": null}], "buySignalCaseStudy": {"title": "First valid Market Dynamics signal", "horizons": [{"test": {"label": "More history needed", "state": "building", "returnDifference": null, "directionalEdgePoints": null}, "weeks": 4, "sample": 0, "confidence": "Not enough evidence", "averageReturn": null, "confidenceLow": null, "expectedCount": 0, "confidenceHigh": null, "baselinePercent": null, "expectedPercent": null, "baselineAverageReturn": null}, {"test": {"label": "More history needed", "state": "building", "returnDifference": null, "directionalEdgePoints": null}, "weeks": 12, "sample": 0, "confidence": "Not enough evidence", "averageReturn": null, "confidenceLow": null, "expectedCount": 0, 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null, "averageWeeksToReach": null, "completedReachedPercent": null}, {"reached": 0, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": null, "confidenceHigh": null, "cyclesObserved": 0, "reachedPercent": null, "medianWeeksToReach": null, "averageWeeksToReach": null, "completedReachedPercent": null}, {"reached": 0, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": null, "confidenceHigh": null, "cyclesObserved": 0, "reachedPercent": null, "medianWeeksToReach": null, "averageWeeksToReach": null, "completedReachedPercent": null}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Adverse-move evidence is still building.", "timing": "Timing evidence is still building.", "finding": "The 10% move record is still building.", "headline": "Accumulation has been most useful as a patient long-positioning window", "application": "Use accumulation to prepare a long case, then require price confirmation before increasing conviction. The condition is a positioning context rather than a stand-alone instruction to buy.", "repeatability": "More repeat cycles are needed before persistence at later price levels can be judged."}, "activeCycles": 0, "repeatedCycles": 0, "completedCycles": 0, "medianAdverseMove": null, "medianCycleReturn": null, "averageAdverseMove": null, "averageCycleReturn": null, "medianFavourableMove": null, "averageFavourableMove": null, "medianGrossOpportunity": null, "averageGrossOpportunity": null, "expectedDirectionPercent": null, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": null, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": null, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": null, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": null, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": null, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": null, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 0, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": null, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 0, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": null, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": null, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": null, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": null, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": null, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": null}, "distribution": {"use": "Downside risk and short positioning", "label": "Distribution to accumulation", "cycles": 0, "thresholds": [{"reached": 0, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": null, "confidenceHigh": null, "cyclesObserved": 0, "reachedPercent": null, "medianWeeksToReach": null, "averageWeeksToReach": null, "completedReachedPercent": null}, {"reached": 0, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": null, "confidenceHigh": null, "cyclesObserved": 0, "reachedPercent": null, "medianWeeksToReach": null, "averageWeeksToReach": null, "completedReachedPercent": null}, {"reached": 0, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": null, "confidenceHigh": null, "cyclesObserved": 0, "reachedPercent": null, "medianWeeksToReach": null, "averageWeeksToReach": null, "completedReachedPercent": null}, {"reached": 0, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": null, "confidenceHigh": null, "cyclesObserved": 0, "reachedPercent": null, "medianWeeksToReach": null, "averageWeeksToReach": null, "completedReachedPercent": null}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Adverse-move evidence is still building.", "timing": "Timing evidence is still building.", "finding": "The 10% move record is still building.", "headline": "Distribution has been a downside warning before it has been a short entry", "application": "Use distribution first to review long exposure, protect gains and watch for downward confirmation. 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"repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": null, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": null, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": null}}}, "equity": {"label": "Portugal equities", "annual": [{"state": "mixed", "period": "2020", "tested": 4, "families": [{"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 85, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": -3.5, "confidenceLow": 33.5, "expectedCount": 37, "confidenceHigh": 54.1, "expectedPercent": 43.5}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 71, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": -3.7, "confidenceLow": 30.2, "expectedCount": 29, "confidenceHigh": 52.5, "expectedPercent": 40.8}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 224, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 7.7, "confidenceLow": 46.2, "expectedCount": 118, "confidenceHigh": 59.1, "expectedPercent": 52.7}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative 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"agreement", "left": {"sample": 125, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": -0.3, "confidenceLow": 34.1, "expectedCount": 53, "confidenceHigh": 51.2, "expectedPercent": 42.4}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 127, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 2.8, "confidenceLow": 48.0, "expectedCount": 72, "confidenceHigh": 65.0, "expectedPercent": 56.7}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 224, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 7.7, "confidenceLow": 46.2, "expectedCount": 118, "confidenceHigh": 59.1, "expectedPercent": 52.7}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -3.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -10.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -8.0, "probabilityDifference": -14.3}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 121, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": -0.2, "confidenceLow": 37.6, "expectedCount": 56, "confidenceHigh": 55.1, "expectedPercent": 46.3}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 121, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 2.4, "confidenceLow": 40.0, "expectedCount": 59, "confidenceHigh": 57.6, "expectedPercent": 48.8}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 224, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 7.7, "confidenceLow": 46.2, "expectedCount": 118, "confidenceHigh": 59.1, "expectedPercent": 52.7}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": -2.6, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -6.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -7.9, "probabilityDifference": -2.5}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 11, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 10.1, "confidenceLow": 35.4, "expectedCount": 7, 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"state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 429, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.4, "confidenceLow": 54.7, "expectedCount": 255, "confidenceHigh": 64.0, "expectedPercent": 59.4}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -2.7, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.3, "probabilityDifference": -6.8}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 153, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.0, "confidenceLow": 55.5, "expectedCount": 97, "confidenceHigh": 70.6, "expectedPercent": 63.4}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 107, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.7, "confidenceLow": 51.3, "expectedCount": 65, "confidenceHigh": 69.5, "expectedPercent": 60.7}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 429, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.4, "confidenceLow": 54.7, "expectedCount": 255, "confidenceHigh": 64.0, "expectedPercent": 59.4}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 2.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 4.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.6, "probabilityDifference": 2.7}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 10, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 22.2, "confidenceLow": 59.6, "expectedCount": 9, "confidenceHigh": 98.2, "expectedPercent": 90.0}, "label": "More history needed", "right": {"sample": 64, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 4.0, "confidenceLow": 48.7, "expectedCount": 39, "confidenceHigh": 71.9, "expectedPercent": 60.9}, "state": "building", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 429, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.4, "confidenceLow": 54.7, "expectedCount": 255, "confidenceHigh": 64.0, "expectedPercent": 59.4}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": 18.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 30.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 16.8, "probabilityDifference": 29.1}], "supports": 0, "doesNotSupport": 3}, {"state": "mixed", "period": "2022", "tested": 4, "families": [{"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 75, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 4.0, "confidenceLow": 38.3, "expectedCount": 37, "confidenceHigh": 60.4, "expectedPercent": 49.3}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 66, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": -0.6, "confidenceLow": 32.6, "expectedCount": 29, "confidenceHigh": 55.9, "expectedPercent": 43.9}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 429, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 3.3, "confidenceLow": 43.1, "expectedCount": 205, "confidenceHigh": 52.5, "expectedPercent": 47.8}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": 4.6, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.7, "probabilityDifference": 5.4}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 212, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 4.0, "confidenceLow": 44.7, "expectedCount": 109, "confidenceHigh": 58.1, "expectedPercent": 51.4}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 213, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 3.1, "confidenceLow": 45.4, "expectedCount": 111, "confidenceHigh": 58.7, "expectedPercent": 52.1}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 429, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 3.3, "confidenceLow": 43.1, "expectedCount": 205, "confidenceHigh": 52.5, "expectedPercent": 47.8}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": 0.9, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 3.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.7, "probabilityDifference": -0.7}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 122, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 4.1, "confidenceLow": 39.7, "expectedCount": 59, "confidenceHigh": 57.1, "expectedPercent": 48.4}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 150, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.1, "confidenceLow": 44.7, "expectedCount": 79, "confidenceHigh": 60.5, "expectedPercent": 52.7}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 429, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 3.3, "confidenceLow": 43.1, "expectedCount": 205, "confidenceHigh": 52.5, "expectedPercent": 47.8}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 3.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.8, "probabilityDifference": -4.3}, {"key": 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"mixed", "tested": 4, "summary": "Some comparisons found different later price outcomes and others did not. The detailed sections show where price confirmation remained necessary.", "headline": "Completed tests for Portugal equities show mixed results", "supports": 0, "stablePeriods": 0, "doesNotSupport": 1, "measuredPeriods": 7}, "baseline": {"4": {"weeks": 4, "sample": 2666, "lowerPercent": 43.8, "averageReturn": 1.7, "higherPercent": 50.4}, "12": {"weeks": 12, "sample": 2600, "lowerPercent": 41.9, "averageReturn": 5.1, "higherPercent": 55.8}, "26": {"weeks": 26, "sample": 2500, "lowerPercent": 36.6, "averageReturn": 11.9, "higherPercent": 62.0}}, "lifecycle": {"unit": "completed relationship phase", "phases": {"priceAhead": {"role": "Tighten confirmation and risk checks", "label": "Price running ahead of Market Dynamics", "episodes": 906, "shortLabel": "Unsupported extension", "medianWeeks": 2.0, "resolutions": [{"count": 557, "label": "Confirmed weakness", "phase": "alignedNegative", "percent": 61.9}, {"count": 329, "label": "Supported advance", "phase": "alignedPositive", "percent": 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1451, "confidenceHigh": 57.7, "expectedPercent": 55.8}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": 0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -4.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -2.5, "probabilityDifference": -3.2}, {"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 407, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 10.8, "confidenceLow": 53.4, "expectedCount": 237, "confidenceHigh": 62.9, "expectedPercent": 58.2}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 400, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 9.3, "confidenceLow": 55.6, "expectedCount": 242, "confidenceHigh": 65.2, "expectedPercent": 60.5}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 2500, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 11.9, "confidenceLow": 60.1, "expectedCount": 1550, "confidenceHigh": 63.9, "expectedPercent": 62.0}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": 1.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -3.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.1, "probabilityDifference": -2.3}], "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use the state to describe the current backdrop and to rank otherwise similar setups.", "role": "Confirmation only", "avoid": "Do not assume that a positive state must lead to a rise or that a negative state must lead to a fall.", "label": "Weak separation", "state": "weak", "confirm": "Require a change in Market Dynamics, confirmation from price, or a separate qualifying signal before treating the state as actionable.", "headline": "The sign describes the backdrop, not a directional trigger", "observed": "At 26 weeks, positive state was followed by a higher price in 58.2% of cases: -2.3 points versus negative state and -3.8 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +1.5 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 0 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": 0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -4.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -2.5, "probabilityDifference": -3.2}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 1414, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.3, "confidenceLow": 52.2, "expectedCount": 775, "confidenceHigh": 57.4, "expectedPercent": 54.8}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 1420, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.5, "confidenceLow": 53.2, "expectedCount": 792, "confidenceHigh": 58.3, "expectedPercent": 55.8}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 2600, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.1, "confidenceLow": 53.9, "expectedCount": 1451, "confidenceHigh": 57.7, "expectedPercent": 55.8}, "horizons": [{"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 1453, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.6, "confidenceLow": 45.7, "expectedCount": 701, "confidenceHigh": 50.8, "expectedPercent": 48.2}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 1443, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.5, "confidenceLow": 48.2, "expectedCount": 733, "confidenceHigh": 53.4, "expectedPercent": 50.8}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 2666, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.7, "confidenceLow": 48.5, "expectedCount": 1344, "confidenceHigh": 52.3, "expectedPercent": 50.4}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": 0.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -2.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.1, "probabilityDifference": -2.6}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 1414, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.3, "confidenceLow": 52.2, "expectedCount": 775, "confidenceHigh": 57.4, "expectedPercent": 54.8}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 1420, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.5, "confidenceLow": 53.2, "expectedCount": 792, "confidenceHigh": 58.3, "expectedPercent": 55.8}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 2600, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.1, "confidenceLow": 53.9, "expectedCount": 1451, "confidenceHigh": 57.7, "expectedPercent": 55.8}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": -0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.8, "probabilityDifference": -1.0}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 1346, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 11.2, "confidenceLow": 56.9, "expectedCount": 802, "confidenceHigh": 62.2, "expectedPercent": 59.6}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 1351, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 10.9, "confidenceLow": 58.1, "expectedCount": 821, "confidenceHigh": 63.3, "expectedPercent": 60.8}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 2500, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 11.9, "confidenceLow": 60.1, "expectedCount": 1550, "confidenceHigh": 63.9, "expectedPercent": 62.0}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": 0.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -2.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.7, "probabilityDifference": -1.2}], "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use strengthening or weakening to judge whether an existing price move is gaining or losing support.", "role": "Confirmation only", "avoid": "Do not act on a one-period change without checking whether the price structure agrees.", "label": "Weak separation", "state": "weak", "confirm": "Look for persistence in the change and a compatible response from price before increasing conviction.", "headline": "Strengthening and weakening are confirmation, not timing signals alone", "observed": "At 26 weeks, strengthening was followed by a higher price in 59.6% of cases: -1.2 points versus weakening and -2.4 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +0.3 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 0 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.8, "probabilityDifference": -1.0}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 864, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 4.0, "confidenceLow": 49.1, "expectedCount": 453, "confidenceHigh": 55.7, "expectedPercent": 52.4}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 885, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.6, "confidenceLow": 53.9, "expectedCount": 506, "confidenceHigh": 60.4, "expectedPercent": 57.2}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 2600, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.1, "confidenceLow": 53.9, "expectedCount": 1451, "confidenceHigh": 57.7, "expectedPercent": 55.8}, "horizons": [{"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 886, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.1, "confidenceLow": 42.2, "expectedCount": 403, "confidenceHigh": 48.8, "expectedPercent": 45.5}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 906, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.3, "confidenceLow": 47.4, "expectedCount": 459, "confidenceHigh": 53.9, "expectedPercent": 50.7}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 2666, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.7, "confidenceLow": 48.5, "expectedCount": 1344, "confidenceHigh": 52.3, "expectedPercent": 50.4}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -4.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.6, "probabilityDifference": -5.2}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 864, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 4.0, "confidenceLow": 49.1, "expectedCount": 453, "confidenceHigh": 55.7, "expectedPercent": 52.4}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 885, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.6, "confidenceLow": 53.9, "expectedCount": 506, "confidenceHigh": 60.4, "expectedPercent": 57.2}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 2600, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.1, "confidenceLow": 53.9, "expectedCount": 1451, "confidenceHigh": 57.7, "expectedPercent": 55.8}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 0.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -3.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.1, "probabilityDifference": -4.8}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 832, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 10.8, "confidenceLow": 57.1, "expectedCount": 503, "confidenceHigh": 63.7, "expectedPercent": 60.5}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 831, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 10.3, "confidenceLow": 58.4, "expectedCount": 513, "confidenceHigh": 65.0, "expectedPercent": 61.7}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 2500, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 11.9, "confidenceLow": 60.1, "expectedCount": 1550, "confidenceHigh": 63.9, "expectedPercent": 62.0}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 0.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.1, "probabilityDifference": -1.2}], "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use agreement to distinguish supported trends from moves that lack confirmation.", "role": "Confirmation only", "avoid": "Do not confuse alignment with certainty; an aligned market can still reverse.", "label": "Weak separation", "state": "weak", "confirm": "Check that the advantage remains visible beyond the shortest horizon and repeats across completed years.", "headline": "Agreement describes alignment, but does not select direction by itself", "observed": "At 26 weeks, price and market dynamics positive was followed by a higher price in 60.5% of cases: -1.2 points versus price and market dynamics negative and -1.5 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +0.5 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 0 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": 0.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -3.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.1, "probabilityDifference": -4.8}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 812, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.7, "confidenceLow": 53.2, "expectedCount": 460, "confidenceHigh": 60.0, "expectedPercent": 56.7}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 872, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.4, "confidenceLow": 50.2, "expectedCount": 467, "confidenceHigh": 56.8, "expectedPercent": 53.6}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 2600, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.1, "confidenceLow": 53.9, "expectedCount": 1451, "confidenceHigh": 57.7, "expectedPercent": 55.8}, "horizons": [{"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 827, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.7, "confidenceLow": 50.9, "expectedCount": 449, "confidenceHigh": 57.7, "expectedPercent": 54.3}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 897, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.0, "confidenceLow": 43.7, "expectedCount": 421, "confidenceHigh": 50.2, "expectedPercent": 46.9}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 2666, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.7, "confidenceLow": 48.5, "expectedCount": 1344, "confidenceHigh": 52.3, "expectedPercent": 50.4}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 0.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 3.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.0, "probabilityDifference": 7.4}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 812, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.7, "confidenceLow": 53.2, "expectedCount": 460, "confidenceHigh": 60.0, "expectedPercent": 56.7}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 872, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.4, "confidenceLow": 50.2, "expectedCount": 467, "confidenceHigh": 56.8, "expectedPercent": 53.6}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 2600, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.1, "confidenceLow": 53.9, "expectedCount": 1451, "confidenceHigh": 57.7, "expectedPercent": 55.8}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 1.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.4, "probabilityDifference": 3.1}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 787, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 10.7, "confidenceLow": 58.3, "expectedCount": 486, "confidenceHigh": 65.1, "expectedPercent": 61.8}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 822, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 10.1, "confidenceLow": 56.3, "expectedCount": 491, "confidenceHigh": 63.0, "expectedPercent": 59.7}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 2500, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 11.9, "confidenceLow": 60.1, "expectedCount": 1550, "confidenceHigh": 63.9, "expectedPercent": 62.0}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 0.6, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.2, "probabilityDifference": 2.1}], "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use disagreement to identify prices that may be early or late relative to the underlying market behaviour.", "role": "Conditional research angle", "avoid": "Do not assume every divergence must close, or that it must close immediately.", "label": "Horizon-specific", "state": "selective", "confirm": "Wait for price to begin resolving toward Market Dynamics, or for a separate signal to confirm the change.", "headline": "Market Dynamics leading price is an early-change watchlist angle", "observed": "At 4 weeks, market dynamics stronger than price was followed by a higher price in 54.3% of cases: +7.4 points versus price stronger than market dynamics and +3.9 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +0.7 points.", "bestHorizon": 4, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 0 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 1}, "returnDifference": 1.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.4, "probabilityDifference": 3.1}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 77, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 11.5, "confidenceLow": 48.6, "expectedCount": 46, "confidenceHigh": 70.0, "expectedPercent": 59.7}, "label": "More history needed", "right": {"sample": 319, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.7, "confidenceLow": 51.3, "expectedCount": 181, "confidenceHigh": 62.1, "expectedPercent": 56.7}, "state": "building", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 2600, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.1, "confidenceLow": 53.9, "expectedCount": 1451, "confidenceHigh": 57.7, "expectedPercent": 55.8}, "horizons": [{"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 77, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 3.7, "confidenceLow": 42.2, "expectedCount": 41, "confidenceHigh": 64.0, "expectedPercent": 53.2}, "label": "More history needed", "right": {"sample": 325, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.8, "confidenceLow": 44.7, "expectedCount": 163, "confidenceHigh": 55.6, "expectedPercent": 50.2}, "state": "building", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 2666, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.7, "confidenceLow": 48.5, "expectedCount": 1344, "confidenceHigh": 52.3, "expectedPercent": 50.4}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": 1.9, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 2.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 2.0, "probabilityDifference": 3.0}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 77, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 11.5, "confidenceLow": 48.6, "expectedCount": 46, "confidenceHigh": 70.0, "expectedPercent": 59.7}, "label": "More history needed", "right": {"sample": 319, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.7, "confidenceLow": 51.3, "expectedCount": 181, "confidenceHigh": 62.1, "expectedPercent": 56.7}, "state": "building", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 2600, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.1, "confidenceLow": 53.9, "expectedCount": 1451, "confidenceHigh": 57.7, "expectedPercent": 55.8}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": 4.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 3.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 6.4, "probabilityDifference": 3.0}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 77, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 19.0, "confidenceLow": 56.5, "expectedCount": 52, "confidenceHigh": 76.9, "expectedPercent": 67.5}, "label": "More history needed", "right": {"sample": 295, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 16.5, "confidenceLow": 57.1, "expectedCount": 185, "confidenceHigh": 68.0, "expectedPercent": 62.7}, "state": "building", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 2500, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 11.9, "confidenceLow": 60.1, "expectedCount": 1550, "confidenceHigh": 63.9, "expectedPercent": 62.0}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": 2.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 5.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 7.1, "probabilityDifference": 4.8}], "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use accumulation and distribution to frame price location, patience, risk and the quality of a later signal.", "role": "Observation only", "avoid": "Do not buy solely because price is in accumulation or sell solely because it is in distribution.", "label": "More history needed", "state": "building", "confirm": "Look for a completed move out of the zone and a compatible Market Dynamics signal before treating location as timing.", "headline": "The zones describe location and risk, not a stand-alone reversal trigger", "observed": "At 26 weeks, accumulation was followed by a higher price in 67.5% of cases: +4.8 points versus distribution and +5.5 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +2.5 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "There are not yet enough completed calendar-period tests to judge persistence.", "measuredYears": 0, "testedHorizons": 0, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": 4.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 3.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 6.4, "probabilityDifference": 3.0}], "buySignalCaseStudy": {"title": "First valid Market Dynamics signal", "horizons": [{"test": {"label": "More history needed", "state": "building", "returnDifference": 3.0, "directionalEdgePoints": 13.5}, "weeks": 4, "sample": 61, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.7, "confidenceLow": 51.4, "expectedCount": 39, "confidenceHigh": 74.8, "baselinePercent": 50.4, "expectedPercent": 63.9, "baselineAverageReturn": 1.7}, {"test": {"label": "More history needed", "state": "building", "returnDifference": 7.6, "directionalEdgePoints": 16.3}, "weeks": 12, "sample": 61, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 12.7, "confidenceLow": 59.8, "expectedCount": 44, "confidenceHigh": 81.8, "baselinePercent": 55.8, "expectedPercent": 72.1, "baselineAverageReturn": 5.1}, {"test": {"label": "More history needed", "state": "building", "returnDifference": 17.1, "directionalEdgePoints": 16.3}, "weeks": 26, "sample": 60, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 29.0, "confidenceLow": 66.4, "expectedCount": 47, "confidenceHigh": 86.9, "baselinePercent": 62.0, "expectedPercent": 78.3, "baselineAverageReturn": 11.9}], "expectedDirection": "higher"}, "positioningOutcomes": {"accumulation": {"use": "Long positioning", "label": "Accumulation to distribution", "cycles": 18, "thresholds": [{"reached": 17, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 74.2, "confidenceHigh": 99.0, "cyclesObserved": 18, "reachedPercent": 94.4, "medianWeeksToReach": 3, "averageWeeksToReach": 18.1, "completedReachedPercent": 100.0}, {"reached": 17, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 74.2, "confidenceHigh": 99.0, "cyclesObserved": 18, "reachedPercent": 94.4, "medianWeeksToReach": 9, "averageWeeksToReach": 25.7, "completedReachedPercent": 100.0}, {"reached": 14, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 54.8, "confidenceHigh": 91.0, "cyclesObserved": 18, "reachedPercent": 77.8, "medianWeeksToReach": 18.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 37.9, "completedReachedPercent": 86.7}, {"reached": 13, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 49.1, "confidenceHigh": 87.5, "cyclesObserved": 18, "reachedPercent": 72.2, "medianWeeksToReach": 46, "averageWeeksToReach": 52.3, "completedReachedPercent": 80.0}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Completed cycles experienced an average adverse move of 15.8% before resolution. Position size and confirmation still matter.", "timing": "The condition lasted 5.5 weeks on average before price left accumulation, while the best advance in completed cycles occurred after 74.7 weeks on average.", "finding": "94.4% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 9 weeks); 77.8% reached 20% (median 18 weeks).", "headline": "Accumulation has been most useful as a patient long-positioning window", "application": "Use accumulation to prepare a long case, then require price confirmation before increasing conviction. The condition is a positioning context rather than a stand-alone instruction to buy.", "repeatability": "Later completed cycles resolved higher 100.0% of the time across 3 repeat cycles."}, "activeCycles": 3, "repeatedCycles": 3, "completedCycles": 15, "medianAdverseMove": 12.0, "medianCycleReturn": 50.0, "averageAdverseMove": 15.8, "averageCycleReturn": 51.5, "medianFavourableMove": 50.0, "averageFavourableMove": 51.5, "medianGrossOpportunity": 50.0, "averageGrossOpportunity": 51.5, "expectedDirectionPercent": 100.0, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": 3.25, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 73, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 0.0, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 88.1, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": 57.3, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 5.5, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 3, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 79.6, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 12, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 71, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 74.7, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 100.0, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": 100.0, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 43.9, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 100.0}, "distribution": {"use": "Downside risk and short positioning", "label": "Distribution to accumulation", "cycles": 39, "thresholds": [{"reached": 28, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 56.2, "confidenceHigh": 83.5, "cyclesObserved": 39, "reachedPercent": 71.8, "medianWeeksToReach": 4.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 11.5, "completedReachedPercent": 80.0}, {"reached": 24, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 45.9, "confidenceHigh": 75.1, "cyclesObserved": 39, "reachedPercent": 61.5, "medianWeeksToReach": 8.5, "averageWeeksToReach": 13.2, "completedReachedPercent": 70.0}, {"reached": 14, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 22.7, "confidenceHigh": 51.6, "cyclesObserved": 39, "reachedPercent": 35.9, "medianWeeksToReach": 14.5, "averageWeeksToReach": 26.8, "completedReachedPercent": 70.0}, {"reached": 8, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 10.8, "confidenceHigh": 35.5, "cyclesObserved": 39, "reachedPercent": 20.5, "medianWeeksToReach": 21.5, "averageWeeksToReach": 28.2, "completedReachedPercent": 60.0}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Price rose by 29.9% on average before completed downside cycles resolved. That adverse path makes unconfirmed or unbounded short positioning unsuitable.", "timing": "Price left distribution after 7.2 weeks on average, but the deepest reversal in completed cycles occurred after 87.7 weeks on average.", "finding": "61.5% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 8.5 weeks); 35.9% reached 20% (median 14.5 weeks).", "headline": "Distribution has been a downside warning before it has been a short entry", "application": "Use distribution first to review long exposure, protect gains and watch for downward confirmation. A short case needs price weakness and defined risk; distribution alone is not enough.", "repeatability": "More repeat cycles are needed before persistence at later price levels can be judged."}, "activeCycles": 29, "repeatedCycles": 0, "completedCycles": 10, "medianAdverseMove": 22.4, "medianCycleReturn": -38.3, "averageAdverseMove": 29.9, "averageCycleReturn": -25.4, "medianFavourableMove": 38.3, "averageFavourableMove": 29.3, "medianGrossOpportunity": 38.3, "averageGrossOpportunity": 25.4, "expectedDirectionPercent": 80.0, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": 0.85, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 135.5, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 3.9, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 129.6, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": null, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 7.2, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 0, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 49.0, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 10, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 105.5, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 87.7, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 94.3, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": null, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": null, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": null}}}}}, "methodBoundary": "Public outcomes and sample sizes only. Proprietary signal construction is not disclosed."}