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The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +0.5 points.", "bestHorizon": 4, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 1 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 1, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": 0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.2, "probabilityDifference": -0.3}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 50881, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.5, "confidenceLow": 50.5, "expectedCount": 25929, "confidenceHigh": 51.4, "expectedPercent": 51.0}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 53702, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.7, "confidenceLow": 51.1, "expectedCount": 27678, "confidenceHigh": 52.0, "expectedPercent": 51.5}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 160422, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.5, "confidenceLow": 51.0, "expectedCount": 82275, "confidenceHigh": 51.5, "expectedPercent": 51.3}, "horizons": [{"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 52418, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.7, "confidenceLow": 47.2, "expectedCount": 24941, "confidenceHigh": 48.0, "expectedPercent": 47.6}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 55031, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 0.9, "confidenceLow": 49.3, "expectedCount": 27366, "confidenceHigh": 50.1, "expectedPercent": 49.7}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 165220, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.4, "confidenceLow": 48.6, "expectedCount": 80690, "confidenceHigh": 49.1, "expectedPercent": 48.8}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 0.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.3, "probabilityDifference": -2.1}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 50881, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.5, "confidenceLow": 50.5, "expectedCount": 25929, "confidenceHigh": 51.4, "expectedPercent": 51.0}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 53702, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.7, "confidenceLow": 51.1, "expectedCount": 27678, "confidenceHigh": 52.0, "expectedPercent": 51.5}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 160422, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.5, "confidenceLow": 51.0, "expectedCount": 82275, "confidenceHigh": 51.5, "expectedPercent": 51.3}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 1.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.0, "probabilityDifference": -0.5}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 48316, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 12.0, "confidenceLow": 54.8, "expectedCount": 26706, "confidenceHigh": 55.7, "expectedPercent": 55.3}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 51266, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 8.8, "confidenceLow": 53.2, "expectedCount": 27482, "confidenceHigh": 54.0, "expectedPercent": 53.6}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 153059, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 9.6, "confidenceLow": 53.3, "expectedCount": 82014, "confidenceHigh": 53.8, "expectedPercent": 53.6}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 3.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.7, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 2.4, "probabilityDifference": 1.7}], "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use agreement to distinguish supported trends from moves that lack confirmation.", "role": "Confirmation only", "avoid": "Do not confuse alignment with certainty; an aligned market can still reverse.", "label": "Weak separation", "state": "weak", "confirm": "Check that the advantage remains visible beyond the shortest horizon and repeats across completed years.", "headline": "Agreement describes alignment, but does not select direction by itself", "observed": "At 26 weeks, price and market dynamics positive was followed by a higher price in 55.3% of cases: +1.7 points versus price and market dynamics negative and +1.7 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +3.2 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 2 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 2, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": 1.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.0, "probabilityDifference": -0.5}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 48750, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.1, "confidenceLow": 51.3, "expectedCount": 25244, "confidenceHigh": 52.2, "expectedPercent": 51.8}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 51648, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 4.0, "confidenceLow": 49.9, "expectedCount": 26012, "confidenceHigh": 50.8, "expectedPercent": 50.4}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 160422, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.5, "confidenceLow": 51.0, "expectedCount": 82275, "confidenceHigh": 51.5, "expectedPercent": 51.3}, "horizons": [{"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 50624, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.0, "confidenceLow": 48.3, "expectedCount": 24674, "confidenceHigh": 49.2, "expectedPercent": 48.7}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 52811, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.5, "confidenceLow": 49.1, "expectedCount": 26165, "confidenceHigh": 50.0, "expectedPercent": 49.5}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 165220, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.4, "confidenceLow": 48.6, "expectedCount": 80690, "confidenceHigh": 49.1, "expectedPercent": 48.8}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": -0.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.4, "probabilityDifference": -0.8}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 48750, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.1, "confidenceLow": 51.3, "expectedCount": 25244, "confidenceHigh": 52.2, "expectedPercent": 51.8}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 51648, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 4.0, "confidenceLow": 49.9, "expectedCount": 26012, "confidenceHigh": 50.8, "expectedPercent": 50.4}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 160422, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.5, "confidenceLow": 51.0, "expectedCount": 82275, "confidenceHigh": 51.5, "expectedPercent": 51.3}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 1.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.6, "probabilityDifference": 1.4}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 46263, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 11.5, "confidenceLow": 54.7, "expectedCount": 25497, "confidenceHigh": 55.6, "expectedPercent": 55.1}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 49408, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 9.0, "confidenceLow": 52.8, "expectedCount": 26285, "confidenceHigh": 53.6, "expectedPercent": 53.2}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 153059, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 9.6, "confidenceLow": 53.3, "expectedCount": 82014, "confidenceHigh": 53.8, "expectedPercent": 53.6}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 2.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.9, "probabilityDifference": 1.9}], "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use disagreement to identify prices that may be early or late relative to the underlying market behaviour.", "role": "Confirmation only", "avoid": "Do not assume every divergence must close, or that it must close immediately.", "label": "Weak separation", "state": "weak", "confirm": "Wait for price to begin resolving toward Market Dynamics, or for a separate signal to confirm the change.", "headline": "Divergence is a warning to investigate, not a reversal call", "observed": "At 26 weeks, market dynamics stronger than price was followed by a higher price in 55.1% of cases: +1.9 points versus price stronger than market dynamics and +1.5 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +2.5 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 3 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 3, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": 1.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.6, "probabilityDifference": 1.4}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 7554, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 3.1, "confidenceLow": 48.3, "expectedCount": 3733, "confidenceHigh": 50.5, "expectedPercent": 49.4}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 18886, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.8, "confidenceLow": 53.7, "expectedCount": 10272, "confidenceHigh": 55.1, "expectedPercent": 54.4}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 160422, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.5, "confidenceLow": 51.0, "expectedCount": 82275, "confidenceHigh": 51.5, "expectedPercent": 51.3}, "horizons": [{"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 8015, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.2, "confidenceLow": 48.6, "expectedCount": 3983, "confidenceHigh": 50.8, "expectedPercent": 49.7}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 19357, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 2.9, "confidenceLow": 49.6, "expectedCount": 9744, "confidenceHigh": 51.0, "expectedPercent": 50.3}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 165220, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.4, "confidenceLow": 48.6, "expectedCount": 80690, "confidenceHigh": 49.1, "expectedPercent": 48.8}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -1.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.2, "probabilityDifference": -0.6}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 7554, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 3.1, "confidenceLow": 48.3, "expectedCount": 3733, "confidenceHigh": 50.5, "expectedPercent": 49.4}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 18886, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.8, "confidenceLow": 53.7, "expectedCount": 10272, "confidenceHigh": 55.1, "expectedPercent": 54.4}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 160422, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.5, "confidenceLow": 51.0, "expectedCount": 82275, "confidenceHigh": 51.5, "expectedPercent": 51.3}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -4.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.4, "probabilityDifference": -5.0}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 6754, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 6.8, "confidenceLow": 46.3, "expectedCount": 3208, "confidenceHigh": 48.7, "expectedPercent": 47.5}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 17834, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 14.8, "confidenceLow": 57.3, "expectedCount": 10342, "confidenceHigh": 58.7, "expectedPercent": 58.0}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 153059, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 9.6, "confidenceLow": 53.3, "expectedCount": 82014, "confidenceHigh": 53.8, "expectedPercent": 53.6}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -8.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -6.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -2.8, "probabilityDifference": -10.5}], "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use accumulation and distribution to frame price location, patience, risk and the quality of a later signal.", "role": "Context and risk control", "avoid": "Do not buy solely because price is in accumulation or sell solely because it is in distribution.", "label": "No standalone edge", "state": "none", "confirm": "Look for a completed move out of the zone and a compatible Market Dynamics signal before treating location as timing.", "headline": "The zones describe location and risk, not a stand-alone reversal trigger", "observed": "At 4 weeks, accumulation was followed by a higher price in 49.7% of cases: -0.6 points versus distribution and +0.9 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was -1.7 points.", "bestHorizon": 4, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 1 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 1, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -4.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.4, "probabilityDifference": -5.0}], "buySignalCaseStudy": {"title": "First valid Market Dynamics signal", "horizons": [{"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 3.6, "directionalEdgePoints": 4.4}, "weeks": 4, "sample": 5181, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.0, "confidenceLow": 51.9, "expectedCount": 2757, "confidenceHigh": 54.6, "baselinePercent": 48.8, "expectedPercent": 53.2, "baselineAverageReturn": 1.4}, {"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 8.9, "directionalEdgePoints": 9.8}, "weeks": 12, "sample": 4809, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 13.4, "confidenceLow": 59.7, "expectedCount": 2939, "confidenceHigh": 62.5, "baselinePercent": 51.3, "expectedPercent": 61.1, "baselineAverageReturn": 4.5}, {"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 13.7, "directionalEdgePoints": 15.2}, "weeks": 26, "sample": 4186, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 23.3, "confidenceLow": 67.4, "expectedCount": 2881, "confidenceHigh": 70.2, "baselinePercent": 53.6, "expectedPercent": 68.8, "baselineAverageReturn": 9.6}], "expectedDirection": "higher"}, "positioningOutcomes": {"accumulation": {"use": "Long positioning", "label": "Accumulation to distribution", "cycles": 1881, "thresholds": [{"reached": 1563, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 81.3, "confidenceHigh": 84.7, "cyclesObserved": 1881, "reachedPercent": 83.1, "medianWeeksToReach": 4, "averageWeeksToReach": 12.6, "completedReachedPercent": 97.9}, {"reached": 1372, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 70.9, "confidenceHigh": 74.9, "cyclesObserved": 1881, "reachedPercent": 72.9, "medianWeeksToReach": 8.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 19.3, "completedReachedPercent": 95.9}, {"reached": 1115, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 57.0, "confidenceHigh": 61.5, "cyclesObserved": 1881, "reachedPercent": 59.3, "medianWeeksToReach": 18, "averageWeeksToReach": 30.1, "completedReachedPercent": 89.4}, {"reached": 891, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 45.1, "confidenceHigh": 49.6, "cyclesObserved": 1881, "reachedPercent": 47.4, "medianWeeksToReach": 27, "averageWeeksToReach": 37.7, "completedReachedPercent": 77.7}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Completed cycles experienced an average adverse move of 14.5% before resolution. Position size and confirmation still matter.", "timing": "The condition lasted 7.1 weeks on average before price left accumulation, while the best advance in completed cycles occurred after 61.1 weeks on average.", "finding": "72.9% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 8 weeks); 59.3% reached 20% (median 18 weeks).", "headline": "Accumulation has been most useful as a patient long-positioning window", "application": "Use accumulation to prepare a long case, then require price confirmation before increasing conviction. The condition is a positioning context rather than a stand-alone instruction to buy.", "repeatability": "Later completed cycles resolved higher 98.9% of the time across 87 repeat cycles."}, "activeCycles": 1057, "repeatedCycles": 87, "completedCycles": 824, "medianAdverseMove": 7.9, "medianCycleReturn": 50.6, "averageAdverseMove": 14.5, "averageCycleReturn": 60.2, "medianFavourableMove": 51.0, "averageFavourableMove": 61.5, "medianGrossOpportunity": 50.6, "averageGrossOpportunity": 60.2, "expectedDirectionPercent": 97.3, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": 4.15, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 58.0, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 1.3, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 74.5, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": 76.5, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 7.1, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 81, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 96.0, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 737, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 51.0, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 61.1, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 98.2, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": 98.9, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 93.8, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 99.8}, "distribution": {"use": "Downside risk and short positioning", "label": "Distribution to accumulation", "cycles": 2715, "thresholds": [{"reached": 1944, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 69.9, "confidenceHigh": 73.3, "cyclesObserved": 2715, "reachedPercent": 71.6, "medianWeeksToReach": 4.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 13.8, "completedReachedPercent": 79.8}, {"reached": 1533, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 54.6, "confidenceHigh": 58.3, "cyclesObserved": 2715, "reachedPercent": 56.5, "medianWeeksToReach": 7, "averageWeeksToReach": 19.8, "completedReachedPercent": 66.9}, {"reached": 972, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 34.0, "confidenceHigh": 37.6, "cyclesObserved": 2715, "reachedPercent": 35.8, "medianWeeksToReach": 19.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 34.4, "completedReachedPercent": 46.6}, {"reached": 560, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 19.1, "confidenceHigh": 22.2, "cyclesObserved": 2715, "reachedPercent": 20.6, "medianWeeksToReach": 29.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 43.2, "completedReachedPercent": 29.4}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Price rose by 128.8% on average before completed downside cycles resolved. That adverse path makes unconfirmed or unbounded short positioning unsuitable.", "timing": "Price left distribution after 5.9 weeks on average, but the deepest reversal in completed cycles occurred after 51.1 weeks on average.", "finding": "56.5% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 7 weeks); 35.8% reached 20% (median 19 weeks).", "headline": "Distribution has been a downside warning before it has been a short entry", "application": "Use distribution first to review long exposure, protect gains and watch for downward confirmation. A short case needs price weakness and defined risk; distribution alone is not enough.", "repeatability": "Later completed cycles resolved lower 90.8% of the time across 131 repeat cycles."}, "activeCycles": 1280, "repeatedCycles": 131, "completedCycles": 1435, "medianAdverseMove": 65.2, "medianCycleReturn": -9.0, "averageAdverseMove": 128.8, "averageCycleReturn": 10.2, "medianFavourableMove": 18.5, "averageFavourableMove": 21.3, "medianGrossOpportunity": 9.0, "averageGrossOpportunity": -10.2, "expectedDirectionPercent": 58.0, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": -0.08, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 160, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 31.5, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 158.5, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": 30.1, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 5.9, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 128, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 55.5, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 1304, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 34, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 51.1, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 60.6, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": 90.8, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 84.7, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 94.7}}}, "etf": {"label": "Taiwan ETFs", "annual": [{"state": "doesNotSupport", "period": "2020", "tested": 5, "families": [{"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 274, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.4, "confidenceLow": 50.3, "expectedCount": 154, "confidenceHigh": 62.0, "expectedPercent": 56.2}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 226, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.5, "confidenceLow": 50.6, "expectedCount": 129, "confidenceHigh": 63.4, "expectedPercent": 57.1}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 727, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.0, "confidenceLow": 71.7, "expectedCount": 545, "confidenceHigh": 78.0, "expectedPercent": 75.0}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -3.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -18.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -5.6, "probabilityDifference": -0.9}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 546, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.8, "confidenceLow": 57.4, "expectedCount": 336, "confidenceHigh": 65.5, "expectedPercent": 61.5}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 534, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.3, "confidenceLow": 55.3, "expectedCount": 318, "confidenceHigh": 63.6, "expectedPercent": 59.6}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 727, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.0, "confidenceLow": 71.7, "expectedCount": 545, "confidenceHigh": 78.0, "expectedPercent": 75.0}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": 2.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -13.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -2.2, "probabilityDifference": 1.9}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 373, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 8.4, "confidenceLow": 71.8, "expectedCount": 285, "confidenceHigh": 80.4, "expectedPercent": 76.4}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 317, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.5, "confidenceLow": 50.3, "expectedCount": 177, "confidenceHigh": 61.2, "expectedPercent": 55.8}, "state": "supports", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 727, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.0, "confidenceLow": 71.7, "expectedCount": 545, "confidenceHigh": 78.0, "expectedPercent": 75.0}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 3.9, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.4, "probabilityDifference": 20.6}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 354, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.8, "confidenceLow": 59.6, "expectedCount": 229, "confidenceHigh": 69.5, "expectedPercent": 64.7}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 313, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 9.3, "confidenceLow": 67.0, "expectedCount": 226, "confidenceHigh": 76.9, "expectedPercent": 72.2}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 727, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.0, "confidenceLow": 71.7, "expectedCount": 545, "confidenceHigh": 78.0, "expectedPercent": 75.0}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": -5.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -10.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -3.2, "probabilityDifference": -7.5}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 39, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -7.6, "confidenceLow": 1.4, "expectedCount": 2, "confidenceHigh": 16.9, "expectedPercent": 5.1}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 160, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 10.8, "confidenceLow": 88.9, "expectedCount": 150, "confidenceHigh": 96.6, "expectedPercent": 93.8}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 727, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.0, "confidenceLow": 71.7, "expectedCount": 545, "confidenceHigh": 78.0, "expectedPercent": 75.0}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -18.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -69.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -14.6, "probabilityDifference": -88.7}], "supports": 1, "doesNotSupport": 3}, {"state": "doesNotSupport", "period": "2021", "tested": 5, "families": [{"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 192, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -2.5, "confidenceLow": 31.9, "expectedCount": 74, "confidenceHigh": 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0.4, "confidenceLow": 49.6, "expectedCount": 868, "confidenceHigh": 54.4, "expectedPercent": 52.0}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 10590, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.2, "confidenceLow": 55.1, "expectedCount": 5935, "confidenceHigh": 57.0, "expectedPercent": 56.0}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": 0.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.4, "probabilityDifference": 3.0}, {"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 1707, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.2, "confidenceLow": 54.0, "expectedCount": 962, "confidenceHigh": 58.7, "expectedPercent": 56.4}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 1635, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.8, "confidenceLow": 56.1, "expectedCount": 956, "confidenceHigh": 60.8, "expectedPercent": 58.5}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 10202, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.8, "confidenceLow": 59.2, "expectedCount": 6139, "confidenceHigh": 61.1, "expectedPercent": 60.2}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -0.6, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -3.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.6, "probabilityDifference": -2.1}, {"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 1632, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.3, "confidenceLow": 56.7, "expectedCount": 964, "confidenceHigh": 61.4, "expectedPercent": 59.1}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 1552, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 8.4, "confidenceLow": 61.0, "expectedCount": 985, "confidenceHigh": 65.8, "expectedPercent": 63.5}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 9601, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.8, "confidenceLow": 60.7, "expectedCount": 5920, "confidenceHigh": 62.6, "expectedPercent": 61.7}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -2.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -2.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.5, "probabilityDifference": -4.4}], "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use the state to describe the current backdrop and to rank otherwise similar setups.", "role": "Confirmation only", "avoid": "Do not assume that a positive state must lead to a rise or that a negative state must lead to a fall.", "label": "Weak separation", "state": "weak", "confirm": "Require a change in Market Dynamics, confirmation from price, or a separate qualifying signal before treating the state as actionable.", "headline": "The sign describes the backdrop, not a directional trigger", "observed": "At 4 weeks, positive state was followed by a higher price in 55.0% of cases: +3.0 points versus negative state and -1.0 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +0.4 points.", "bestHorizon": 4, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 0 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -0.6, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -3.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.6, "probabilityDifference": -2.1}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 5076, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.8, "confidenceLow": 59.0, "expectedCount": 3065, "confidenceHigh": 61.7, "expectedPercent": 60.4}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 5046, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.6, "confidenceLow": 57.2, "expectedCount": 2954, "confidenceHigh": 59.9, "expectedPercent": 58.5}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 10202, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.8, "confidenceLow": 59.2, "expectedCount": 6139, "confidenceHigh": 61.1, "expectedPercent": 60.2}, "horizons": [{"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 5230, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.5, "confidenceLow": 57.3, "expectedCount": 3069, "confidenceHigh": 60.0, "expectedPercent": 58.7}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 5256, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.9, "confidenceLow": 52.1, "expectedCount": 2811, "confidenceHigh": 54.8, "expectedPercent": 53.5}, "state": "supports", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 10590, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.2, "confidenceLow": 55.1, "expectedCount": 5935, "confidenceHigh": 57.0, "expectedPercent": 56.0}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": 0.6, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 2.7, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.3, "probabilityDifference": 5.2}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 5076, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.8, "confidenceLow": 59.0, "expectedCount": 3065, "confidenceHigh": 61.7, "expectedPercent": 60.4}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 5046, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.6, "confidenceLow": 57.2, "expectedCount": 2954, "confidenceHigh": 59.9, "expectedPercent": 58.5}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 10202, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.8, "confidenceLow": 59.2, "expectedCount": 6139, "confidenceHigh": 61.1, "expectedPercent": 60.2}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": 0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.0, "probabilityDifference": 1.9}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 4784, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 8.0, "confidenceLow": 60.5, "expectedCount": 2959, "confidenceHigh": 63.2, "expectedPercent": 61.9}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 4779, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.9, "confidenceLow": 60.1, "expectedCount": 2938, "confidenceHigh": 62.8, "expectedPercent": 61.5}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 9601, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.8, "confidenceLow": 60.7, "expectedCount": 5920, "confidenceHigh": 62.6, "expectedPercent": 61.7}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": 0.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.2, "probabilityDifference": 0.4}], "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use strengthening or weakening to judge whether an existing price move is gaining or losing support.", "role": "Conditional research angle", "avoid": "Do not act on a one-period change without checking whether the price structure agrees.", "label": "Horizon-specific", "state": "selective", "confirm": "Look for persistence in the change and a compatible response from price before increasing conviction.", "headline": "Improvement in Market Dynamics adds a useful timing tilt", "observed": "At 4 weeks, strengthening was followed by a higher price in 58.7% of cases: +5.2 points versus weakening and +2.7 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +0.6 points.", "bestHorizon": 4, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 1 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 1, "supportingHorizons": 1}, "returnDifference": 0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.0, "probabilityDifference": 1.9}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 3171, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.4, "confidenceLow": 59.4, "expectedCount": 1939, "confidenceHigh": 62.8, "expectedPercent": 61.1}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 2967, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.9, "confidenceLow": 55.2, "expectedCount": 1690, "confidenceHigh": 58.7, "expectedPercent": 57.0}, "state": "supports", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 10202, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.8, "confidenceLow": 59.2, "expectedCount": 6139, "confidenceHigh": 61.1, "expectedPercent": 60.2}, "horizons": [{"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 3305, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.2, "confidenceLow": 54.2, "expectedCount": 1848, "confidenceHigh": 57.6, "expectedPercent": 55.9}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 3037, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.7, "confidenceLow": 51.4, "expectedCount": 1614, "confidenceHigh": 54.9, "expectedPercent": 53.1}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 10590, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.2, "confidenceLow": 55.1, "expectedCount": 5935, "confidenceHigh": 57.0, "expectedPercent": 56.0}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 0.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.0, "probabilityDifference": 2.8}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 3171, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.4, "confidenceLow": 59.4, "expectedCount": 1939, "confidenceHigh": 62.8, "expectedPercent": 61.1}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 2967, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.9, "confidenceLow": 55.2, "expectedCount": 1690, "confidenceHigh": 58.7, "expectedPercent": 57.0}, "state": "supports", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 10202, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.8, "confidenceLow": 59.2, "expectedCount": 6139, "confidenceHigh": 61.1, "expectedPercent": 60.2}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 1.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.6, "probabilityDifference": 4.1}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 2962, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 8.8, "confidenceLow": 61.4, "expectedCount": 1871, "confidenceHigh": 64.9, "expectedPercent": 63.2}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 2823, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.4, "confidenceLow": 56.9, "expectedCount": 1658, "confidenceHigh": 60.5, "expectedPercent": 58.7}, "state": "supports", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 9601, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.8, "confidenceLow": 60.7, "expectedCount": 5920, "confidenceHigh": 62.6, "expectedPercent": 61.7}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 2.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.0, "probabilityDifference": 4.5}], "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use agreement to distinguish supported trends from moves that lack confirmation.", "role": "Conditional research angle", "avoid": "Do not confuse alignment with certainty; an aligned market can still reverse.", "label": "Horizon-specific", "state": "selective", "confirm": "Check that the advantage remains visible beyond the shortest horizon and repeats across completed years.", "headline": "Agreement improves conviction at the horizons where it persists", "observed": "At 26 weeks, price and market dynamics positive was followed by a higher price in 63.2% of cases: +4.5 points versus price and market dynamics negative and +1.5 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +2.4 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 2 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 2, "supportingHorizons": 2}, "returnDifference": 1.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.6, "probabilityDifference": 4.1}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 2929, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.2, "confidenceLow": 56.4, "expectedCount": 1704, "confidenceHigh": 60.0, "expectedPercent": 58.2}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 3063, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.4, "confidenceLow": 58.0, "expectedCount": 1829, "confidenceHigh": 61.4, "expectedPercent": 59.7}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 10202, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.8, "confidenceLow": 59.2, "expectedCount": 6139, "confidenceHigh": 61.1, "expectedPercent": 60.2}, "horizons": [{"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 3150, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.9, "confidenceLow": 54.7, "expectedCount": 1778, "confidenceHigh": 58.2, "expectedPercent": 56.4}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 3125, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.6, "confidenceLow": 59.3, "expectedCount": 1906, "confidenceHigh": 62.7, "expectedPercent": 61.0}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 10590, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.2, "confidenceLow": 55.1, "expectedCount": 5935, "confidenceHigh": 57.0, "expectedPercent": 56.0}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": -0.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.3, "probabilityDifference": -4.6}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 2929, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.2, "confidenceLow": 56.4, "expectedCount": 1704, "confidenceHigh": 60.0, "expectedPercent": 58.2}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 3063, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.4, "confidenceLow": 58.0, "expectedCount": 1829, "confidenceHigh": 61.4, "expectedPercent": 59.7}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 10202, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.8, "confidenceLow": 59.2, "expectedCount": 6139, "confidenceHigh": 61.1, "expectedPercent": 60.2}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 0.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -2.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.4, "probabilityDifference": -1.5}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 2743, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 8.8, "confidenceLow": 61.4, "expectedCount": 1733, "confidenceHigh": 65.0, "expectedPercent": 63.2}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 2899, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.0, "confidenceLow": 57.0, "expectedCount": 1706, "confidenceHigh": 60.6, "expectedPercent": 58.8}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 9601, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.8, "confidenceLow": 60.7, "expectedCount": 5920, "confidenceHigh": 62.6, "expectedPercent": 61.7}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 1.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.0, "probabilityDifference": 4.4}], "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use disagreement to identify prices that may be early or late relative to the underlying market behaviour.", "role": "Conditional research angle", "avoid": "Do not assume every divergence must close, or that it must close immediately.", "label": "Horizon-specific", "state": "selective", "confirm": "Wait for price to begin resolving toward Market Dynamics, or for a separate signal to confirm the change.", "headline": "Market Dynamics leading price is an early-change watchlist angle", "observed": "At 26 weeks, market dynamics stronger than price was followed by a higher price in 63.2% of cases: +4.4 points versus price stronger than market dynamics and +1.5 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +1.8 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 1 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 1, "supportingHorizons": 1}, "returnDifference": 0.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -2.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.4, "probabilityDifference": -1.5}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 407, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -0.6, "confidenceLow": 34.9, "expectedCount": 161, "confidenceHigh": 44.4, "expectedPercent": 39.6}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 1316, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.4, "confidenceLow": 69.6, "expectedCount": 949, "confidenceHigh": 74.5, "expectedPercent": 72.1}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 10202, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.8, "confidenceLow": 59.2, "expectedCount": 6139, "confidenceHigh": 61.1, "expectedPercent": 60.2}, "horizons": [{"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 410, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.3, "confidenceLow": 37.5, "expectedCount": 173, "confidenceHigh": 47.0, "expectedPercent": 42.2}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 1346, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.3, "confidenceLow": 62.3, "expectedCount": 873, "confidenceHigh": 67.4, "expectedPercent": 64.9}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 10590, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.2, "confidenceLow": 55.1, "expectedCount": 5935, "confidenceHigh": 57.0, "expectedPercent": 56.0}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -2.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -13.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.9, "probabilityDifference": -22.7}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 407, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -0.6, "confidenceLow": 34.9, "expectedCount": 161, "confidenceHigh": 44.4, "expectedPercent": 39.6}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 1316, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.4, "confidenceLow": 69.6, "expectedCount": 949, "confidenceHigh": 74.5, "expectedPercent": 72.1}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 10202, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.8, "confidenceLow": 59.2, "expectedCount": 6139, "confidenceHigh": 61.1, "expectedPercent": 60.2}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -7.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -20.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -4.4, "probabilityDifference": -32.5}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 391, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.6, "confidenceLow": 34.2, "expectedCount": 152, "confidenceHigh": 43.8, "expectedPercent": 38.9}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 1191, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 11.8, "confidenceLow": 73.4, "expectedCount": 904, "confidenceHigh": 78.2, "expectedPercent": 75.9}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 9601, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.8, "confidenceLow": 60.7, "expectedCount": 5920, "confidenceHigh": 62.6, "expectedPercent": 61.7}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -10.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -22.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -6.2, "probabilityDifference": -37.0}], "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use accumulation and distribution to frame price location, patience, risk and the quality of a later signal.", "role": "Context and risk control", "avoid": "Do not buy solely because price is in accumulation or sell solely because it is in distribution.", "label": "No standalone edge", "state": "none", "confirm": "Look for a completed move out of the zone and a compatible Market Dynamics signal before treating location as timing.", "headline": "The zones describe location and risk, not a stand-alone reversal trigger", "observed": "At 4 weeks, accumulation was followed by a higher price in 42.2% of cases: -22.7 points versus distribution and -13.8 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was -2.0 points.", "bestHorizon": 4, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 0 of 6 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 6, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -7.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -20.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -4.4, "probabilityDifference": -32.5}], "buySignalCaseStudy": {"title": "First valid Market Dynamics signal", "horizons": [{"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 0.7, "directionalEdgePoints": 7.0}, "weeks": 4, "sample": 414, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.9, "confidenceLow": 58.3, "expectedCount": 261, "confidenceHigh": 67.6, "baselinePercent": 56.0, "expectedPercent": 63.0, "baselineAverageReturn": 1.2}, {"test": {"label": "Some support", "state": "mixed", "returnDifference": 2.9, "directionalEdgePoints": 5.6}, "weeks": 12, "sample": 407, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.7, "confidenceLow": 61.1, "expectedCount": 268, "confidenceHigh": 70.3, "baselinePercent": 60.2, "expectedPercent": 65.8, "baselineAverageReturn": 3.8}, {"test": {"label": "Some support", "state": "mixed", "returnDifference": 5.3, "directionalEdgePoints": 4.0}, "weeks": 26, "sample": 379, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 13.1, "confidenceLow": 60.8, "expectedCount": 249, "confidenceHigh": 70.3, "baselinePercent": 61.7, "expectedPercent": 65.7, "baselineAverageReturn": 7.8}], "expectedDirection": "higher"}, "positioningOutcomes": {"accumulation": {"use": "Long positioning", "label": "Accumulation to distribution", "cycles": 79, "thresholds": [{"reached": 56, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 60.1, "confidenceHigh": 79.7, "cyclesObserved": 79, "reachedPercent": 70.9, "medianWeeksToReach": 7.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 27.1, "completedReachedPercent": 90.6}, {"reached": 49, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 51.0, "confidenceHigh": 71.9, "cyclesObserved": 79, "reachedPercent": 62.0, "medianWeeksToReach": 15, "averageWeeksToReach": 43.0, "completedReachedPercent": 84.9}, {"reached": 30, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 28.1, "confidenceHigh": 49.0, "cyclesObserved": 79, "reachedPercent": 38.0, "medianWeeksToReach": 61.5, "averageWeeksToReach": 66.9, "completedReachedPercent": 56.6}, {"reached": 19, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 16.0, "confidenceHigh": 34.5, "cyclesObserved": 79, "reachedPercent": 24.1, "medianWeeksToReach": 69, "averageWeeksToReach": 77.4, "completedReachedPercent": 35.8}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Completed cycles experienced an average adverse move of 20.8% before resolution. Position size and confirmation still matter.", "timing": "The condition lasted 10.9 weeks on average before price left accumulation, while the best advance in completed cycles occurred after 79.1 weeks on average.", "finding": "62.0% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 15 weeks); 38.0% reached 20% (median 61.5 weeks).", "headline": "Accumulation has been most useful as a patient long-positioning window", "application": "Use accumulation to prepare a long case, then require price confirmation before increasing conviction. The condition is a positioning context rather than a stand-alone instruction to buy.", "repeatability": "Later completed cycles resolved higher 100.0% of the time across 2 repeat cycles."}, "activeCycles": 26, "repeatedCycles": 2, "completedCycles": 53, "medianAdverseMove": 16.2, "medianCycleReturn": 22.8, "averageAdverseMove": 20.8, "averageCycleReturn": 31.1, "medianFavourableMove": 22.8, "averageFavourableMove": 33.2, "medianGrossOpportunity": 22.8, "averageGrossOpportunity": 31.1, "expectedDirectionPercent": 90.6, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": 1.5, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 100, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 2.1, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 101.5, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": 56.0, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 10.9, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 2, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 79.7, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 51, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 85, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 79.1, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 95.9, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": 100.0, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 34.2, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 100.0}, "distribution": {"use": "Downside risk and short positioning", "label": "Distribution to accumulation", "cycles": 198, "thresholds": [{"reached": 80, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 33.8, "confidenceHigh": 47.4, "cyclesObserved": 198, "reachedPercent": 40.4, "medianWeeksToReach": 7.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 26.2, "completedReachedPercent": 84.2}, {"reached": 55, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 22.0, "confidenceHigh": 34.4, "cyclesObserved": 198, "reachedPercent": 27.8, "medianWeeksToReach": 17, "averageWeeksToReach": 39.0, "completedReachedPercent": 65.8}, {"reached": 25, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 8.7, "confidenceHigh": 18.0, "cyclesObserved": 198, "reachedPercent": 12.6, "medianWeeksToReach": 35, "averageWeeksToReach": 47.9, "completedReachedPercent": 39.5}, {"reached": 14, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 4.3, "confidenceHigh": 11.5, "cyclesObserved": 198, "reachedPercent": 7.1, "medianWeeksToReach": 38.5, "averageWeeksToReach": 48.4, "completedReachedPercent": 23.7}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Price rose by 28.8% on average before completed downside cycles resolved. That adverse path makes unconfirmed or unbounded short positioning unsuitable.", "timing": "Price left distribution after 10.0 weeks on average, but the deepest reversal in completed cycles occurred after 78.8 weeks on average.", "finding": "27.8% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 17 weeks); 12.6% reached 20% (median 35 weeks).", "headline": "Distribution has been a downside warning before it has been a short entry", "application": "Use distribution first to review long exposure, protect gains and watch for downward confirmation. A short case needs price weakness and defined risk; distribution alone is not enough.", "repeatability": "More repeat cycles are needed before persistence at later price levels can be judged."}, "activeCycles": 160, "repeatedCycles": 0, "completedCycles": 38, "medianAdverseMove": 26.4, "medianCycleReturn": -16.2, "averageAdverseMove": 28.8, "averageCycleReturn": -15.1, "medianFavourableMove": 16.2, "averageFavourableMove": 18.0, "medianGrossOpportunity": 16.2, "averageGrossOpportunity": 15.1, "expectedDirectionPercent": 84.2, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": 0.53, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 118.5, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 2.8, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 120.7, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": null, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 10.0, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 0, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 69.6, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 38, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 89.5, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 78.8, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 92.6, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": null, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": null, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": null}}}, "equity": {"label": "Taiwan equities", "annual": [{"state": "supports", "period": "2020", "tested": 5, "families": [{"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 4234, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.7, "confidenceLow": 50.2, "expectedCount": 2189, "confidenceHigh": 53.2, "expectedPercent": 51.7}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 3942, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.1, "confidenceLow": 42.3, "expectedCount": 1729, "confidenceHigh": 45.4, "expectedPercent": 43.9}, "state": "supports", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 12710, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 9.4, "confidenceLow": 61.7, "expectedCount": 7951, "confidenceHigh": 63.4, "expectedPercent": 62.6}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": 3.6, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -10.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -4.7, "probabilityDifference": 7.8}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 10708, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 8.9, "confidenceLow": 58.0, "expectedCount": 6306, "confidenceHigh": 59.8, "expectedPercent": 58.9}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 10912, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.3, "confidenceLow": 54.9, "expectedCount": 6098, "confidenceHigh": 56.8, "expectedPercent": 55.9}, "state": "supports", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 12710, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 9.4, "confidenceLow": 61.7, "expectedCount": 7951, "confidenceHigh": 63.4, "expectedPercent": 62.6}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": 1.6, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -3.7, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.5, "probabilityDifference": 3.0}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 7057, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 11.0, "confidenceLow": 60.8, "expectedCount": 4372, "confidenceHigh": 63.1, "expectedPercent": 62.0}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 6480, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.0, "confidenceLow": 57.7, "expectedCount": 3814, "confidenceHigh": 60.1, "expectedPercent": 58.9}, "state": "supports", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 12710, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 9.4, "confidenceLow": 61.7, "expectedCount": 7951, "confidenceHigh": 63.4, "expectedPercent": 62.6}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 4.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.6, "probabilityDifference": 3.1}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 6602, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 8.4, "confidenceLow": 57.4, "expectedCount": 3867, "confidenceHigh": 59.8, "expectedPercent": 58.6}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 5985, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 12.0, "confidenceLow": 66.6, "expectedCount": 4056, "confidenceHigh": 68.9, "expectedPercent": 67.8}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 12710, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 9.4, "confidenceLow": 61.7, "expectedCount": 7951, "confidenceHigh": 63.4, "expectedPercent": 62.6}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": -3.6, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -4.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.0, "probabilityDifference": -9.2}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 213, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 13.3, "confidenceLow": 63.0, "expectedCount": 148, "confidenceHigh": 75.3, "expectedPercent": 69.5}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 2665, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 11.8, "confidenceLow": 60.8, "expectedCount": 1669, "confidenceHigh": 64.4, "expectedPercent": 62.6}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 12710, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 9.4, "confidenceLow": 61.7, "expectedCount": 7951, "confidenceHigh": 63.4, "expectedPercent": 62.6}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": 1.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 6.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 3.9, "probabilityDifference": 6.9}], "supports": 3, "doesNotSupport": 1}, {"state": "doesNotSupport", "period": "2021", "tested": 5, "families": [{"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 3806, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 4.3, "confidenceLow": 47.6, "expectedCount": 1872, "confidenceHigh": 50.8, "expectedPercent": 49.2}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 3745, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 8.2, "confidenceLow": 58.8, "expectedCount": 2260, "confidenceHigh": 61.9, "expectedPercent": 60.3}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 24074, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.9, "confidenceLow": 53.7, "expectedCount": 13079, "confidenceHigh": 55.0, "expectedPercent": 54.3}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -3.9, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -5.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.6, "probabilityDifference": -11.1}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 10811, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.5, "confidenceLow": 52.3, "expectedCount": 5756, "confidenceHigh": 54.2, "expectedPercent": 53.2}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 10524, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.2, "confidenceLow": 54.5, "expectedCount": 5835, "confidenceHigh": 56.4, "expectedPercent": 55.4}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 24074, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.9, "confidenceLow": 53.7, "expectedCount": 13079, "confidenceHigh": 55.0, "expectedPercent": 54.3}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": -0.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.4, "probabilityDifference": -2.2}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 7200, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 5.0, "confidenceLow": 49.4, "expectedCount": 3642, "confidenceHigh": 51.7, "expectedPercent": 50.6}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 7498, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.1, "confidenceLow": 56.0, "expectedCount": 4286, "confidenceHigh": 58.3, "expectedPercent": 57.2}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 24074, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.9, "confidenceLow": 53.7, "expectedCount": 13079, "confidenceHigh": 55.0, "expectedPercent": 54.3}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -1.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -3.7, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.9, "probabilityDifference": -6.6}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 6581, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.2, "confidenceLow": 55.7, "expectedCount": 3742, "confidenceHigh": 58.1, "expectedPercent": 56.9}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 7749, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.9, "confidenceLow": 52.4, "expectedCount": 4149, "confidenceHigh": 54.7, "expectedPercent": 53.5}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 24074, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.9, "confidenceLow": 53.7, "expectedCount": 13079, "confidenceHigh": 55.0, "expectedPercent": 54.3}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 2.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 2.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.3, "probabilityDifference": 3.4}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 488, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 3.6, "confidenceLow": 49.3, "expectedCount": 262, "confidenceHigh": 58.1, "expectedPercent": 53.7}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 4168, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.6, "confidenceLow": 50.9, "expectedCount": 2183, "confidenceHigh": 53.9, "expectedPercent": 52.4}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 24074, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.9, "confidenceLow": 53.7, "expectedCount": 13079, "confidenceHigh": 55.0, "expectedPercent": 54.3}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -3.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -2.3, "probabilityDifference": 1.3}], "supports": 1, "doesNotSupport": 3}, {"state": "doesNotSupport", "period": "2022", "tested": 5, "families": [{"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 3883, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.4, "confidenceLow": 43.9, "expectedCount": 1764, "confidenceHigh": 47.0, "expectedPercent": 45.4}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 3969, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.2, "confidenceLow": 50.8, "expectedCount": 2077, "confidenceHigh": 53.9, "expectedPercent": 52.3}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 24775, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.3, "confidenceLow": 47.7, "expectedCount": 11978, "confidenceHigh": 49.0, "expectedPercent": 48.3}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -0.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -2.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.1, "probabilityDifference": -6.9}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 10952, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.9, "confidenceLow": 46.2, "expectedCount": 5162, "confidenceHigh": 48.1, "expectedPercent": 47.1}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 11117, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.7, "confidenceLow": 48.1, "expectedCount": 5455, "confidenceHigh": 50.0, "expectedPercent": 49.1}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 24775, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.3, "confidenceLow": 47.7, "expectedCount": 11978, "confidenceHigh": 49.0, "expectedPercent": 48.3}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": -0.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.4, "probabilityDifference": -2.0}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 6285, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.6, "confidenceLow": 41.8, "expectedCount": 2706, "confidenceHigh": 44.3, "expectedPercent": 43.1}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 8707, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.5, "confidenceLow": 48.6, "expectedCount": 4325, "confidenceHigh": 50.7, "expectedPercent": 49.7}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 24775, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.3, "confidenceLow": 47.7, "expectedCount": 11978, "confidenceHigh": 49.0, "expectedPercent": 48.3}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -0.9, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -5.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.7, "probabilityDifference": -6.6}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 6531, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.7, "confidenceLow": 46.8, "expectedCount": 3138, "confidenceHigh": 49.3, "expectedPercent": 48.0}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 8189, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.3, "confidenceLow": 44.7, "expectedCount": 3745, "confidenceHigh": 46.8, "expectedPercent": 45.7}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 24775, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.3, "confidenceLow": 47.7, "expectedCount": 11978, "confidenceHigh": 49.0, "expectedPercent": 48.3}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 1.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.4, "probabilityDifference": 2.3}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 867, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.6, "confidenceLow": 52.4, "expectedCount": 483, "confidenceHigh": 59.0, "expectedPercent": 55.7}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 2047, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.8, "confidenceLow": 41.1, "expectedCount": 885, "confidenceHigh": 45.4, "expectedPercent": 43.2}, "state": "supports", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 24775, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.3, "confidenceLow": 47.7, "expectedCount": 11978, "confidenceHigh": 49.0, "expectedPercent": 48.3}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": 2.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 7.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 2.3, "probabilityDifference": 12.5}], "supports": 1, "doesNotSupport": 3}, {"state": "mixed", "period": "2023", "tested": 5, "families": [{"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 3519, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.0, "confidenceLow": 53.9, "expectedCount": 1956, "confidenceHigh": 57.2, "expectedPercent": 55.6}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 3322, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.5, "confidenceLow": 52.6, "expectedCount": 1804, "confidenceHigh": 56.0, "expectedPercent": 54.3}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 25648, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.0, "confidenceLow": 56.8, "expectedCount": 14716, "confidenceHigh": 58.0, "expectedPercent": 57.4}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": 1.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.0, "probabilityDifference": 1.3}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 12111, "confidence": "Historically 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"label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 6904, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.0, "confidenceLow": 53.0, "expectedCount": 3741, "confidenceHigh": 55.4, "expectedPercent": 54.2}, "state": "supports", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 25648, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.0, "confidenceLow": 56.8, "expectedCount": 14716, "confidenceHigh": 58.0, "expectedPercent": 57.4}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 3.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.2, "probabilityDifference": 3.6}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 7507, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.5, "confidenceLow": 55.9, "expectedCount": 4281, "confidenceHigh": 58.1, "expectedPercent": 57.0}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 6893, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.3, "confidenceLow": 52.8, "expectedCount": 3724, "confidenceHigh": 55.2, "expectedPercent": 54.0}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 25648, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.0, "confidenceLow": 56.8, "expectedCount": 14716, "confidenceHigh": 58.0, "expectedPercent": 57.4}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 2.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.5, "probabilityDifference": 3.0}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 715, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 3.2, "confidenceLow": 48.9, "expectedCount": 376, "confidenceHigh": 56.2, "expectedPercent": 52.6}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 2607, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 8.7, "confidenceLow": 57.3, "expectedCount": 1543, 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The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +0.2 points.", "bestHorizon": 12, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 1 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 1, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": 0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -3.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.5, "probabilityDifference": -3.3}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 74435, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.7, "confidenceLow": 50.3, "expectedCount": 37691, "confidenceHigh": 51.0, "expectedPercent": 50.6}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 74634, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.5, "confidenceLow": 50.7, "expectedCount": 38134, "confidenceHigh": 51.5, "expectedPercent": 51.1}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 150220, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.5, "confidenceLow": 50.4, "expectedCount": 76136, "confidenceHigh": 50.9, "expectedPercent": 50.7}, "horizons": [{"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 76336, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.6, "confidenceLow": 48.1, "expectedCount": 36954, "confidenceHigh": 48.8, "expectedPercent": 48.4}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 76749, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.1, "confidenceLow": 47.9, "expectedCount": 37009, "confidenceHigh": 48.6, "expectedPercent": 48.2}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 154630, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.4, "confidenceLow": 48.1, "expectedCount": 74755, "confidenceHigh": 48.6, "expectedPercent": 48.3}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": 0.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.2, "probabilityDifference": 0.2}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 74435, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.7, "confidenceLow": 50.3, "expectedCount": 37691, "confidenceHigh": 51.0, "expectedPercent": 50.6}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 74634, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.5, "confidenceLow": 50.7, "expectedCount": 38134, "confidenceHigh": 51.5, "expectedPercent": 51.1}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 150220, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.5, "confidenceLow": 50.4, "expectedCount": 76136, "confidenceHigh": 50.9, "expectedPercent": 50.7}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": 0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.2, "probabilityDifference": -0.5}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 70739, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 10.8, "confidenceLow": 53.8, "expectedCount": 38332, "confidenceHigh": 54.6, "expectedPercent": 54.2}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 70880, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 10.3, "confidenceLow": 53.5, "expectedCount": 38208, "confidenceHigh": 54.3, "expectedPercent": 53.9}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 143458, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 9.7, "confidenceLow": 52.8, "expectedCount": 76094, "confidenceHigh": 53.3, "expectedPercent": 53.0}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": 0.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.1, "probabilityDifference": 0.3}], "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use strengthening or weakening to judge whether an existing price move is gaining or losing support.", "role": "Confirmation only", "avoid": "Do not act on a one-period change without checking whether the price structure agrees.", "label": "Weak separation", "state": "weak", "confirm": "Look for persistence in the change and a compatible response from price before increasing conviction.", "headline": "Strengthening and weakening are confirmation, not timing signals alone", "observed": "At 26 weeks, strengthening was followed by a higher price in 54.2% of cases: +0.3 points versus weakening and +1.2 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +0.5 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 1 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 1, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": 0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.2, "probabilityDifference": -0.5}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 47710, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 5.6, "confidenceLow": 49.8, "expectedCount": 23990, "confidenceHigh": 50.7, "expectedPercent": 50.3}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 50735, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.8, "confidenceLow": 50.8, "expectedCount": 25988, "confidenceHigh": 51.7, "expectedPercent": 51.2}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 150220, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.5, "confidenceLow": 50.4, "expectedCount": 76136, "confidenceHigh": 50.9, "expectedPercent": 50.7}, "horizons": [{"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 49113, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.7, "confidenceLow": 46.6, "expectedCount": 23093, "confidenceHigh": 47.5, "expectedPercent": 47.0}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 51994, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.0, "confidenceLow": 49.1, "expectedCount": 25752, "confidenceHigh": 50.0, "expectedPercent": 49.5}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 154630, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.4, "confidenceLow": 48.1, "expectedCount": 74755, "confidenceHigh": 48.6, "expectedPercent": 48.3}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 0.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.3, "probabilityDifference": -2.5}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 47710, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 5.6, "confidenceLow": 49.8, "expectedCount": 23990, "confidenceHigh": 50.7, "expectedPercent": 50.3}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 50735, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.8, "confidenceLow": 50.8, "expectedCount": 25988, "confidenceHigh": 51.7, "expectedPercent": 51.2}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 150220, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.5, "confidenceLow": 50.4, "expectedCount": 76136, "confidenceHigh": 50.9, "expectedPercent": 50.7}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 1.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.1, "probabilityDifference": -0.9}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 45354, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 12.2, "confidenceLow": 54.3, "expectedCount": 24835, "confidenceHigh": 55.2, "expectedPercent": 54.8}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 48443, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 8.9, "confidenceLow": 52.9, "expectedCount": 25824, "confidenceHigh": 53.8, "expectedPercent": 53.3}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 143458, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 9.7, "confidenceLow": 52.8, "expectedCount": 76094, "confidenceHigh": 53.3, "expectedPercent": 53.0}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 3.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 2.5, "probabilityDifference": 1.5}], "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use agreement to distinguish supported trends from moves that lack confirmation.", "role": "Confirmation only", "avoid": "Do not confuse alignment with certainty; an aligned market can still reverse.", "label": "Weak separation", "state": "weak", "confirm": "Check that the advantage remains visible beyond the shortest horizon and repeats across completed years.", "headline": "Agreement describes alignment, but does not select direction by itself", "observed": "At 26 weeks, price and market dynamics positive was followed by a higher price in 54.8% of cases: +1.5 points versus price and market dynamics negative and +1.8 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +3.3 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 2 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 2, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": 1.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.1, "probabilityDifference": -0.9}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 45821, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.1, "confidenceLow": 50.9, "expectedCount": 23540, "confidenceHigh": 51.8, "expectedPercent": 51.4}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 48585, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 4.0, "confidenceLow": 49.3, "expectedCount": 24183, "confidenceHigh": 50.2, "expectedPercent": 49.8}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 150220, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.5, "confidenceLow": 50.4, "expectedCount": 76136, "confidenceHigh": 50.9, "expectedPercent": 50.7}, "horizons": [{"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 47474, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.0, "confidenceLow": 47.8, "expectedCount": 22896, "confidenceHigh": 48.7, "expectedPercent": 48.2}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 49686, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.5, "confidenceLow": 48.4, "expectedCount": 24259, "confidenceHigh": 49.3, "expectedPercent": 48.8}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 154630, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.4, "confidenceLow": 48.1, "expectedCount": 74755, "confidenceHigh": 48.6, "expectedPercent": 48.3}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": -0.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.4, "probabilityDifference": -0.6}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 45821, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.1, "confidenceLow": 50.9, "expectedCount": 23540, "confidenceHigh": 51.8, "expectedPercent": 51.4}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 48585, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 4.0, "confidenceLow": 49.3, "expectedCount": 24183, "confidenceHigh": 50.2, "expectedPercent": 49.8}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 150220, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.5, "confidenceLow": 50.4, "expectedCount": 76136, "confidenceHigh": 50.9, "expectedPercent": 50.7}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 1.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.7, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.6, "probabilityDifference": 1.6}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 43520, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 11.7, "confidenceLow": 54.1, "expectedCount": 23764, "confidenceHigh": 55.1, "expectedPercent": 54.6}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 46509, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 9.1, "confidenceLow": 52.4, "expectedCount": 24579, "confidenceHigh": 53.3, "expectedPercent": 52.8}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 143458, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 9.7, "confidenceLow": 52.8, "expectedCount": 76094, "confidenceHigh": 53.3, "expectedPercent": 53.0}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 2.6, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 2.0, "probabilityDifference": 1.8}], "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use disagreement to identify prices that may be early or late relative to the underlying market behaviour.", "role": "Confirmation only", "avoid": "Do not assume every divergence must close, or that it must close immediately.", "label": "Weak separation", "state": "weak", "confirm": "Wait for price to begin resolving toward Market Dynamics, or for a separate signal to confirm the change.", "headline": "Divergence is a warning to investigate, not a reversal call", "observed": "At 26 weeks, market dynamics stronger than price was followed by a higher price in 54.6% of cases: +1.8 points versus price stronger than market dynamics and +1.6 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +2.6 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 4 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 4, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": 1.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.7, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.6, "probabilityDifference": 1.6}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 7147, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 3.3, "confidenceLow": 48.8, "expectedCount": 3572, "confidenceHigh": 51.1, "expectedPercent": 50.0}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 17570, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.9, "confidenceLow": 52.3, "expectedCount": 9323, "confidenceHigh": 53.8, "expectedPercent": 53.1}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 150220, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.5, "confidenceLow": 50.4, "expectedCount": 76136, "confidenceHigh": 50.9, "expectedPercent": 50.7}, "horizons": [{"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 7605, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.2, "confidenceLow": 49.0, "expectedCount": 3810, "confidenceHigh": 51.2, "expectedPercent": 50.1}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 18011, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 3.0, "confidenceLow": 48.5, "expectedCount": 8871, "confidenceHigh": 50.0, "expectedPercent": 49.3}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 154630, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.4, "confidenceLow": 48.1, "expectedCount": 74755, "confidenceHigh": 48.6, "expectedPercent": 48.3}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -1.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.2, "probabilityDifference": 0.8}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 7147, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 3.3, "confidenceLow": 48.8, "expectedCount": 3572, "confidenceHigh": 51.1, "expectedPercent": 50.0}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 17570, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.9, "confidenceLow": 52.3, "expectedCount": 9323, "confidenceHigh": 53.8, "expectedPercent": 53.1}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 150220, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.5, "confidenceLow": 50.4, "expectedCount": 76136, "confidenceHigh": 50.9, "expectedPercent": 50.7}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -4.6, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.7, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.2, "probabilityDifference": -3.1}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 6363, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 7.2, "confidenceLow": 46.8, "expectedCount": 3056, "confidenceHigh": 49.3, "expectedPercent": 48.0}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 16643, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 15.0, "confidenceLow": 56.0, "expectedCount": 9438, "confidenceHigh": 57.5, "expectedPercent": 56.7}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 143458, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 9.7, "confidenceLow": 52.8, "expectedCount": 76094, "confidenceHigh": 53.3, "expectedPercent": 53.0}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -7.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -5.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -2.5, "probabilityDifference": -8.7}], "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use accumulation and distribution to frame price location, patience, risk and the quality of a later signal.", "role": "Confirmation only", "avoid": "Do not buy solely because price is in accumulation or sell solely because it is in distribution.", "label": "Weak separation", "state": "weak", "confirm": "Look for a completed move out of the zone and a compatible Market Dynamics signal before treating location as timing.", "headline": "The zones describe location and risk, not a stand-alone reversal trigger", "observed": "At 4 weeks, accumulation was followed by a higher price in 50.1% of cases: +0.8 points versus distribution and +1.8 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was -1.8 points.", "bestHorizon": 4, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 1 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 1, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -4.6, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.7, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.2, "probabilityDifference": -3.1}], "buySignalCaseStudy": {"title": "First valid Market Dynamics signal", "horizons": [{"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 3.9, "directionalEdgePoints": 4.1}, "weeks": 4, "sample": 4767, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.3, "confidenceLow": 50.9, "expectedCount": 2496, "confidenceHigh": 53.8, "baselinePercent": 48.3, "expectedPercent": 52.4, "baselineAverageReturn": 1.4}, {"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 9.6, "directionalEdgePoints": 10.0}, "weeks": 12, "sample": 4402, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 14.1, "confidenceLow": 59.2, "expectedCount": 2671, "confidenceHigh": 62.1, "baselinePercent": 50.7, "expectedPercent": 60.7, "baselineAverageReturn": 4.5}, {"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 14.6, "directionalEdgePoints": 16.1}, "weeks": 26, "sample": 3807, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 24.3, "confidenceLow": 67.6, "expectedCount": 2632, "confidenceHigh": 70.6, "baselinePercent": 53.0, "expectedPercent": 69.1, "baselineAverageReturn": 9.7}], "expectedDirection": "higher"}, "positioningOutcomes": {"accumulation": {"use": "Long positioning", "label": "Accumulation to distribution", "cycles": 1802, "thresholds": [{"reached": 1507, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 81.8, "confidenceHigh": 85.3, "cyclesObserved": 1802, "reachedPercent": 83.6, "medianWeeksToReach": 4, "averageWeeksToReach": 12.1, "completedReachedPercent": 98.4}, {"reached": 1323, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 71.3, "confidenceHigh": 75.4, "cyclesObserved": 1802, "reachedPercent": 73.4, "medianWeeksToReach": 8, "averageWeeksToReach": 18.4, "completedReachedPercent": 96.6}, {"reached": 1085, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 57.9, "confidenceHigh": 62.4, "cyclesObserved": 1802, "reachedPercent": 60.2, "medianWeeksToReach": 18, "averageWeeksToReach": 29.1, "completedReachedPercent": 91.7}, {"reached": 872, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 46.1, "confidenceHigh": 50.7, "cyclesObserved": 1802, "reachedPercent": 48.4, "medianWeeksToReach": 27.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 36.8, "completedReachedPercent": 80.5}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Completed cycles experienced an average adverse move of 14.1% before resolution. Position size and confirmation still matter.", "timing": "The condition lasted 6.9 weeks on average before price left accumulation, while the best advance in completed cycles occurred after 59.9 weeks on average.", "finding": "73.4% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 8 weeks); 60.2% reached 20% (median 18 weeks).", "headline": "Accumulation has been most useful as a patient long-positioning window", "application": "Use accumulation to prepare a long case, then require price confirmation before increasing conviction. The condition is a positioning context rather than a stand-alone instruction to buy.", "repeatability": "Later completed cycles resolved higher 98.8% of the time across 85 repeat cycles."}, "activeCycles": 1031, "repeatedCycles": 85, "completedCycles": 771, "medianAdverseMove": 6.9, "medianCycleReturn": 52.9, "averageAdverseMove": 14.1, "averageCycleReturn": 62.1, "medianFavourableMove": 53.2, "averageFavourableMove": 63.4, "medianGrossOpportunity": 52.9, "averageGrossOpportunity": 62.1, "expectedDirectionPercent": 97.8, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": 4.42, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 56, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 1.3, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 72.6, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": 76.9, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 6.9, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 79, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 96.5, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 686, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 51, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 59.9, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 98.6, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": 98.8, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 93.6, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 99.8}, "distribution": {"use": "Downside risk and short positioning", "label": "Distribution to accumulation", "cycles": 2517, "thresholds": [{"reached": 1864, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 72.3, "confidenceHigh": 75.7, "cyclesObserved": 2517, "reachedPercent": 74.1, "medianWeeksToReach": 4.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 13.3, "completedReachedPercent": 79.7}, {"reached": 1478, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 56.8, "confidenceHigh": 60.6, "cyclesObserved": 2517, "reachedPercent": 58.7, "medianWeeksToReach": 7.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 19.1, "completedReachedPercent": 66.9}, {"reached": 947, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 35.8, "confidenceHigh": 39.5, "cyclesObserved": 2517, "reachedPercent": 37.6, "medianWeeksToReach": 19, "averageWeeksToReach": 34.0, "completedReachedPercent": 46.8}, {"reached": 546, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 20.1, "confidenceHigh": 23.3, "cyclesObserved": 2517, "reachedPercent": 21.7, "medianWeeksToReach": 29.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 43.1, "completedReachedPercent": 29.6}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Price rose by 131.5% on average before completed downside cycles resolved. That adverse path makes unconfirmed or unbounded short positioning unsuitable.", "timing": "Price left distribution after 5.6 weeks on average, but the deepest reversal in completed cycles occurred after 50.3 weeks on average.", "finding": "58.7% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 7 weeks); 37.6% reached 20% (median 19 weeks).", "headline": "Distribution has been a downside warning before it has been a short entry", "application": "Use distribution first to review long exposure, protect gains and watch for downward confirmation. A short case needs price weakness and defined risk; distribution alone is not enough.", "repeatability": "Later completed cycles resolved lower 90.8% of the time across 131 repeat cycles."}, "activeCycles": 1120, "repeatedCycles": 131, "completedCycles": 1397, "medianAdverseMove": 66.2, "medianCycleReturn": -8.6, "averageAdverseMove": 131.5, "averageCycleReturn": 10.9, "medianFavourableMove": 18.5, "averageFavourableMove": 21.4, "medianGrossOpportunity": 8.6, "averageGrossOpportunity": -10.9, "expectedDirectionPercent": 57.3, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": -0.08, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 162, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 32.3, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 159.6, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": 30.1, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 5.6, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 128, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 54.7, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 1266, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 32, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 50.3, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 59.9, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": 90.8, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 84.7, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 94.7}}}}}, "methodBoundary": "Public outcomes and sample sizes only. Proprietary signal construction is not disclosed."}