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"confidenceHigh": 60.1, "expectedPercent": 58.2}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 14702, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 8.3, "confidenceLow": 56.8, "expectedCount": 8462, "confidenceHigh": 58.4, "expectedPercent": 57.6}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -0.6, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -2.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.5, "probabilityDifference": -3.4}], "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use the state to describe the current backdrop and to rank otherwise similar setups.", "role": "Context and risk control", "avoid": "Do not assume that a positive state must lead to a rise or that a negative state must lead to a fall.", "label": "No standalone edge", "state": "none", "confirm": "Require a change in Market Dynamics, confirmation from price, or a separate qualifying signal 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The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was -1.2 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 0 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -0.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.6, "probabilityDifference": -2.4}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 5664, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.2, "confidenceLow": 50.7, "expectedCount": 2944, "confidenceHigh": 53.3, "expectedPercent": 52.0}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 5268, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.0, "confidenceLow": 54.9, "expectedCount": 2965, "confidenceHigh": 57.6, "expectedPercent": 56.3}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 15794, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.6, "confidenceLow": 53.0, "expectedCount": 8494, "confidenceHigh": 54.6, "expectedPercent": 53.8}, "horizons": [{"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 6034, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.4, "confidenceLow": 44.5, "expectedCount": 2761, "confidenceHigh": 47.0, "expectedPercent": 45.8}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 5545, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.0, "confidenceLow": 51.0, "expectedCount": 2902, "confidenceHigh": 53.6, "expectedPercent": 52.3}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 16896, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.3, "confidenceLow": 48.7, "expectedCount": 8348, "confidenceHigh": 50.2, "expectedPercent": 49.4}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -1.6, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -3.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.9, "probabilityDifference": -6.5}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 5664, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.2, "confidenceLow": 50.7, "expectedCount": 2944, "confidenceHigh": 53.3, "expectedPercent": 52.0}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 5268, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.0, "confidenceLow": 54.9, "expectedCount": 2965, "confidenceHigh": 57.6, "expectedPercent": 56.3}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 15794, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.6, "confidenceLow": 53.0, "expectedCount": 8494, "confidenceHigh": 54.6, "expectedPercent": 53.8}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -0.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.4, "probabilityDifference": -4.3}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 5300, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 9.7, "confidenceLow": 56.4, "expectedCount": 3060, "confidenceHigh": 59.1, "expectedPercent": 57.7}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 5008, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.9, "confidenceLow": 56.4, "expectedCount": 2892, "confidenceHigh": 59.1, "expectedPercent": 57.7}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 14702, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 8.3, "confidenceLow": 56.8, "expectedCount": 8462, "confidenceHigh": 58.4, "expectedPercent": 57.6}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 1.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.4, "probabilityDifference": 0.0}], "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use agreement to distinguish supported trends from moves that lack confirmation.", "role": "Confirmation only", "avoid": "Do not confuse alignment with certainty; an aligned market can still reverse.", "label": "Weak separation", "state": "weak", "confirm": "Check that the advantage remains visible beyond the shortest horizon and repeats across completed years.", "headline": "Agreement describes alignment, but does not select direction by itself", "observed": "At 26 weeks, price and market dynamics positive was followed by a higher price in 57.7% of cases: +0.0 points versus price and market dynamics negative and +0.1 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +1.8 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 0 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -0.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.4, "probabilityDifference": -4.3}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 5307, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.1, "confidenceLow": 55.4, "expectedCount": 3012, "confidenceHigh": 58.1, "expectedPercent": 56.8}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 5087, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 2.3, "confidenceLow": 49.6, "expectedCount": 2592, "confidenceHigh": 52.3, "expectedPercent": 51.0}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 15794, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.6, "confidenceLow": 53.0, "expectedCount": 8494, "confidenceHigh": 54.6, "expectedPercent": 53.8}, "horizons": [{"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 5636, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.1, "confidenceLow": 51.6, "expectedCount": 2982, "confidenceHigh": 54.2, "expectedPercent": 52.9}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 5401, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.4, "confidenceLow": 43.5, "expectedCount": 2421, "confidenceHigh": 46.2, "expectedPercent": 44.8}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 16896, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.3, "confidenceLow": 48.7, "expectedCount": 8348, "confidenceHigh": 50.2, "expectedPercent": 49.4}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 1.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 3.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.8, "probabilityDifference": 8.1}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 5307, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.1, "confidenceLow": 55.4, "expectedCount": 3012, "confidenceHigh": 58.1, "expectedPercent": 56.8}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 5087, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 2.3, "confidenceLow": 49.6, "expectedCount": 2592, "confidenceHigh": 52.3, "expectedPercent": 51.0}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 15794, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.6, "confidenceLow": 53.0, "expectedCount": 8494, "confidenceHigh": 54.6, "expectedPercent": 53.8}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 2.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 3.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.5, "probabilityDifference": 5.8}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 4942, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 11.1, "confidenceLow": 58.8, "expectedCount": 2973, "confidenceHigh": 61.5, "expectedPercent": 60.2}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 4838, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.0, "confidenceLow": 53.5, "expectedCount": 2657, "confidenceHigh": 56.3, "expectedPercent": 54.9}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 14702, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 8.3, "confidenceLow": 56.8, "expectedCount": 8462, "confidenceHigh": 58.4, "expectedPercent": 57.6}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 5.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 2.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 2.8, "probabilityDifference": 5.3}], "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use disagreement to identify prices that may be early or late relative to the underlying market behaviour.", "role": "Conditional research angle", "avoid": "Do not assume every divergence must close, or that it must close immediately.", "label": "Horizon-specific", "state": "selective", "confirm": "Wait for price to begin resolving toward Market Dynamics, or for a separate signal to confirm the change.", "headline": "Market Dynamics leading price is an early-change watchlist angle", "observed": "At 4 weeks, market dynamics stronger than price was followed by a higher price in 52.9% of cases: +8.1 points versus price stronger than market dynamics and +3.5 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +1.7 points.", "bestHorizon": 4, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 1 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 1, "supportingHorizons": 3}, "returnDifference": 2.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 3.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.5, "probabilityDifference": 5.8}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 741, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.9, "confidenceLow": 53.4, "expectedCount": 422, "confidenceHigh": 60.5, "expectedPercent": 57.0}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 1733, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.9, "confidenceLow": 51.8, "expectedCount": 938, "confidenceHigh": 56.5, "expectedPercent": 54.1}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 15794, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.6, "confidenceLow": 53.0, "expectedCount": 8494, "confidenceHigh": 54.6, "expectedPercent": 53.8}, "horizons": [{"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 765, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.2, "confidenceLow": 52.7, "expectedCount": 430, "confidenceHigh": 59.7, "expectedPercent": 56.2}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 1802, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.5, "confidenceLow": 44.1, "expectedCount": 836, "confidenceHigh": 48.7, "expectedPercent": 46.4}, "state": "supports", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 16896, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.3, "confidenceLow": 48.7, "expectedCount": 8348, "confidenceHigh": 50.2, "expectedPercent": 49.4}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": 4.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 6.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 3.9, "probabilityDifference": 9.8}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 741, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.9, "confidenceLow": 53.4, "expectedCount": 422, "confidenceHigh": 60.5, "expectedPercent": 57.0}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 1733, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.9, "confidenceLow": 51.8, "expectedCount": 938, "confidenceHigh": 56.5, "expectedPercent": 54.1}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 15794, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.6, "confidenceLow": 53.0, "expectedCount": 8494, "confidenceHigh": 54.6, "expectedPercent": 53.8}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": 5.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 3.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 4.3, "probabilityDifference": 2.9}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 706, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 13.8, "confidenceLow": 56.8, "expectedCount": 427, "confidenceHigh": 64.0, "expectedPercent": 60.5}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 1613, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.2, "confidenceLow": 56.2, "expectedCount": 946, "confidenceHigh": 61.0, "expectedPercent": 58.6}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 14702, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 8.3, "confidenceLow": 56.8, "expectedCount": 8462, "confidenceHigh": 58.4, "expectedPercent": 57.6}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": 6.6, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 2.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 5.5, "probabilityDifference": 1.9}], "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use accumulation and distribution to frame price location, patience, risk and the quality of a later signal.", "role": "Conditional research angle", "avoid": "Do not buy solely because price is in accumulation or sell solely because it is in distribution.", "label": "Horizon-specific", "state": "selective", "confirm": "Look for a completed move out of the zone and a compatible Market Dynamics signal before treating location as timing.", "headline": "The zones add an asymmetric price-location angle", "observed": "At 4 weeks, accumulation was followed by a higher price in 56.2% of cases: +9.8 points versus distribution and +6.8 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +4.7 points.", "bestHorizon": 4, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 1 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 1, "supportingHorizons": 1}, "returnDifference": 5.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 3.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 4.3, "probabilityDifference": 2.9}], "buySignalCaseStudy": {"title": "First valid Market Dynamics signal", "horizons": [{"test": {"label": "Does not support an edge", "state": "doesNotSupport", "returnDifference": -0.9, "directionalEdgePoints": -3.1}, "weeks": 4, "sample": 574, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 0.4, "confidenceLow": 42.3, "expectedCount": 266, "confidenceHigh": 50.4, "baselinePercent": 49.4, "expectedPercent": 46.3, "baselineAverageReturn": 1.3}, {"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 4.0, "directionalEdgePoints": 10.5}, "weeks": 12, "sample": 367, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.6, "confidenceLow": 59.3, "expectedCount": 236, "confidenceHigh": 69.0, "baselinePercent": 53.8, "expectedPercent": 64.3, "baselineAverageReturn": 3.6}, {"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 10.4, "directionalEdgePoints": 20.3}, "weeks": 26, "sample": 344, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 18.7, "confidenceLow": 73.2, "expectedCount": 268, "confidenceHigh": 82.0, "baselinePercent": 57.6, "expectedPercent": 77.9, "baselineAverageReturn": 8.3}], "expectedDirection": "higher"}, "positioningOutcomes": {"accumulation": {"use": "Long positioning", "label": "Accumulation to distribution", "cycles": 118, "thresholds": [{"reached": 116, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 94.0, "confidenceHigh": 99.5, "cyclesObserved": 118, "reachedPercent": 98.3, "medianWeeksToReach": 3.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 11.5, "completedReachedPercent": 99.1}, {"reached": 113, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 90.5, "confidenceHigh": 98.2, "cyclesObserved": 118, "reachedPercent": 95.8, "medianWeeksToReach": 8, "averageWeeksToReach": 16.8, "completedReachedPercent": 97.2}, {"reached": 106, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 83.1, "confidenceHigh": 94.1, "cyclesObserved": 118, "reachedPercent": 89.8, "medianWeeksToReach": 20.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 28.7, "completedReachedPercent": 91.7}, {"reached": 99, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 76.2, "confidenceHigh": 89.4, "cyclesObserved": 118, "reachedPercent": 83.9, "medianWeeksToReach": 27, "averageWeeksToReach": 38.7, "completedReachedPercent": 87.0}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Completed cycles experienced an average adverse move of 16.1% before resolution. Position size and confirmation still matter.", "timing": "The condition lasted 5.7 weeks on average before price left accumulation, while the best advance in completed cycles occurred after 66.0 weeks on average.", "finding": "95.8% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 8 weeks); 89.8% reached 20% (median 20 weeks).", "headline": "Accumulation has been most useful as a patient long-positioning window", "application": "Use accumulation to prepare a long case, then require price confirmation before increasing conviction. The condition is a positioning context rather than a stand-alone instruction to buy.", "repeatability": "Later completed cycles resolved higher 100.0% of the time across 15 repeat cycles."}, "activeCycles": 10, "repeatedCycles": 15, "completedCycles": 108, "medianAdverseMove": 10.8, "medianCycleReturn": 50.5, "averageAdverseMove": 16.1, "averageCycleReturn": 72.7, "medianFavourableMove": 54.9, "averageFavourableMove": 77.9, "medianGrossOpportunity": 50.5, "averageGrossOpportunity": 72.7, "expectedDirectionPercent": 97.2, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": 4.51, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 72.5, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 5.2, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 92.4, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": 74.9, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 5.7, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 12, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 92.1, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 93, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 58.5, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 66.0, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 99.1, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": 100.0, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 79.6, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 100.0}, "distribution": {"use": "Downside risk and short positioning", "label": "Distribution to accumulation", "cycles": 105, "thresholds": [{"reached": 89, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 76.7, "confidenceHigh": 90.4, "cyclesObserved": 105, "reachedPercent": 84.8, "medianWeeksToReach": 5, "averageWeeksToReach": 15.4, "completedReachedPercent": 84.0}, {"reached": 79, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 66.2, "confidenceHigh": 82.5, "cyclesObserved": 105, "reachedPercent": 75.2, "medianWeeksToReach": 11, "averageWeeksToReach": 26.0, "completedReachedPercent": 76.0}, {"reached": 65, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 52.4, "confidenceHigh": 70.6, "cyclesObserved": 105, "reachedPercent": 61.9, "medianWeeksToReach": 26, "averageWeeksToReach": 41.0, "completedReachedPercent": 63.0}, {"reached": 47, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 35.6, "confidenceHigh": 54.3, "cyclesObserved": 105, "reachedPercent": 44.8, "medianWeeksToReach": 29, "averageWeeksToReach": 44.6, "completedReachedPercent": 45.0}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Price rose by 68.0% on average before completed downside cycles resolved. That adverse path makes unconfirmed or unbounded short positioning unsuitable.", "timing": "Price left distribution after 4.8 weeks on average, but the deepest reversal in completed cycles occurred after 63.0 weeks on average.", "finding": "75.2% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 11 weeks); 61.9% reached 20% (median 26 weeks).", "headline": "Distribution has been a downside warning before it has been a short entry", "application": "Use distribution first to review long exposure, protect gains and watch for downward confirmation. A short case needs price weakness and defined risk; distribution alone is not enough.", "repeatability": "Later completed cycles resolved lower 100.0% of the time across 10 repeat cycles."}, "activeCycles": 5, "repeatedCycles": 10, "completedCycles": 100, "medianAdverseMove": 27.4, "medianCycleReturn": -24.3, "averageAdverseMove": 68.0, "averageCycleReturn": -16.5, "medianFavourableMove": 25.4, "averageFavourableMove": 27.9, "medianGrossOpportunity": 24.3, "averageGrossOpportunity": 16.5, "expectedDirectionPercent": 81.0, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": 0.24, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 119.0, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 11.4, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 119.2, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": 36.9, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 4.8, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 7, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 72.2, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 90, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 55.5, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 63.0, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 87.5, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": 100.0, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 72.2, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 100.0}}}, "etf": {"label": "South Africa ETFs", "annual": [], "regimes": {"priceAhead": {"kind": "disagreement", "path": [{"week": 0, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 1, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 2, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 3, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 4, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 5, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 6, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 7, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 8, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 9, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 10, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 11, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 12, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 13, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 14, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 15, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 16, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 17, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 18, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 19, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 20, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 21, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 22, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 23, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 24, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 25, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 26, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}], "label": "Price positive, Market Dynamics cautious", "episodes": 0, "horizons": [{"test": {"label": "More history needed", "state": "building", "returnDifference": null, "directionalEdgePoints": null}, "weeks": 4, "sample": 0, "confidence": "Not enough evidence", "averageReturn": null, "confidenceLow": null, "expectedCount": 0, "confidenceHigh": null, "baselinePercent": null, "expectedPercent": null, "baselineAverageReturn": null}, {"test": {"label": "More history needed", "state": "building", "returnDifference": null, "directionalEdgePoints": null}, "weeks": 12, "sample": 0, "confidence": "Not enough evidence", "averageReturn": null, "confidenceLow": null, "expectedCount": 0, "confidenceHigh": null, "baselinePercent": null, "expectedPercent": null, "baselineAverageReturn": null}, {"test": {"label": "More history needed", "state": "building", "returnDifference": null, "directionalEdgePoints": null}, "weeks": 26, "sample": 0, "confidence": "Not enough evidence", "averageReturn": null, "confidenceLow": null, "expectedCount": 0, "confidenceHigh": null, "baselinePercent": null, "expectedPercent": null, "baselineAverageReturn": null}], "activeEpisodes": 0, "completedEpisodes": 0, "expectedDirection": "lower", "averageExpectedMove": null, "averageWeeksToLargestMove": null}, "dynamicsAhead": {"kind": "disagreement", "path": [{"week": 0, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 1, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 2, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 3, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 4, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 5, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 6, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 7, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 8, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 9, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 10, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 11, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 12, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 13, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 14, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 15, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 16, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 17, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 18, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 19, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 20, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 21, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 22, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 23, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 24, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 25, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 26, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}], "label": "Price cautious, Market Dynamics positive", "episodes": 0, "horizons": [{"test": {"label": "More history needed", "state": "building", "returnDifference": null, "directionalEdgePoints": null}, "weeks": 4, "sample": 0, "confidence": "Not enough evidence", "averageReturn": null, "confidenceLow": null, "expectedCount": 0, "confidenceHigh": null, "baselinePercent": null, "expectedPercent": null, "baselineAverageReturn": null}, {"test": {"label": "More history needed", "state": "building", "returnDifference": null, "directionalEdgePoints": null}, "weeks": 12, "sample": 0, "confidence": "Not enough evidence", "averageReturn": null, "confidenceLow": null, "expectedCount": 0, "confidenceHigh": null, "baselinePercent": null, "expectedPercent": null, "baselineAverageReturn": null}, {"test": {"label": "More history needed", "state": "building", "returnDifference": null, "directionalEdgePoints": null}, "weeks": 26, "sample": 0, "confidence": "Not enough evidence", "averageReturn": null, "confidenceLow": null, "expectedCount": 0, "confidenceHigh": null, "baselinePercent": null, "expectedPercent": null, "baselineAverageReturn": null}], "activeEpisodes": 0, "completedEpisodes": 0, "expectedDirection": "higher", "averageExpectedMove": null, "averageWeeksToLargestMove": null}, "alignedNegative": {"kind": "aligned", "path": [{"week": 0, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 1, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 2, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 3, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 4, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 5, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 6, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 7, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 8, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 9, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 10, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 11, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 12, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 13, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 14, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 15, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 16, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 17, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 18, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 19, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 20, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 21, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 22, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 23, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 24, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 25, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 26, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}], "label": "Price and Market 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{"sample": 0, "confidence": "Not enough evidence", "averageReturn": null, "confidenceLow": null, "expectedCount": 0, "confidenceHigh": null, "expectedPercent": null}, "state": "building", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 0, "confidence": "Not enough evidence", "averageReturn": null, "confidenceLow": null, "expectedCount": 0, "confidenceHigh": null, "expectedPercent": null}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": null, "leftVsBaselinePoints": null, "leftVsBaselineReturn": null, "probabilityDifference": null}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 0, "confidence": "Not enough evidence", "averageReturn": null, "confidenceLow": null, "expectedCount": 0, "confidenceHigh": null, "expectedPercent": null}, "label": "More history needed", "right": {"sample": 0, "confidence": "Not enough evidence", "averageReturn": null, "confidenceLow": null, "expectedCount": 0, "confidenceHigh": null, "expectedPercent": null}, 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"persistence": "There are not yet enough completed calendar-period tests to judge persistence.", "measuredYears": 0, "testedHorizons": 0, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": null, "leftVsBaselinePoints": null, "leftVsBaselineReturn": null, "probabilityDifference": null}], "buySignalCaseStudy": {"title": "First valid Market Dynamics signal", "horizons": [{"test": {"label": "More history needed", "state": "building", "returnDifference": null, "directionalEdgePoints": null}, "weeks": 4, "sample": 0, "confidence": "Not enough evidence", "averageReturn": null, "confidenceLow": null, "expectedCount": 0, "confidenceHigh": null, "baselinePercent": null, "expectedPercent": null, "baselineAverageReturn": null}, {"test": {"label": "More history needed", "state": "building", "returnDifference": null, "directionalEdgePoints": null}, "weeks": 12, "sample": 0, "confidence": "Not enough evidence", "averageReturn": null, "confidenceLow": null, "expectedCount": 0, 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"repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": null, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": null, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": null}}}, "equity": {"label": "South Africa equities", "annual": [{"state": "mixed", "period": "2020", "tested": 5, "families": [{"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 498, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -2.8, "confidenceLow": 39.3, "expectedCount": 217, "confidenceHigh": 48.0, "expectedPercent": 43.6}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 420, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -3.0, "confidenceLow": 40.3, "expectedCount": 189, "confidenceHigh": 49.8, "expectedPercent": 45.0}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 1418, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 11.5, "confidenceLow": 62.5, "expectedCount": 922, "confidenceHigh": 67.5, "expectedPercent": 65.0}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative 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{"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 850, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 8.4, "confidenceLow": 55.6, "expectedCount": 501, "confidenceHigh": 62.2, "expectedPercent": 58.9}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 720, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.2, "confidenceLow": 51.8, "expectedCount": 399, "confidenceHigh": 59.0, "expectedPercent": 55.4}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 1418, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 11.5, "confidenceLow": 62.5, "expectedCount": 922, "confidenceHigh": 67.5, "expectedPercent": 65.0}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 4.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -6.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -3.1, "probabilityDifference": 3.5}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 782, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 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"doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 2682, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.5, "confidenceLow": 60.0, "expectedCount": 1658, "confidenceHigh": 63.6, "expectedPercent": 61.8}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -0.9, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.7, "probabilityDifference": -9.1}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 931, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 9.5, "confidenceLow": 63.3, "expectedCount": 618, "confidenceHigh": 69.3, "expectedPercent": 66.4}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 788, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.3, "confidenceLow": 58.0, "expectedCount": 484, "confidenceHigh": 64.8, "expectedPercent": 61.4}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 2682, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.5, "confidenceLow": 60.0, "expectedCount": 1658, "confidenceHigh": 63.6, "expectedPercent": 61.8}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 3.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 4.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 2.0, "probabilityDifference": 5.0}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 46, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 6.3, "confidenceLow": 48.6, "expectedCount": 29, "confidenceHigh": 75.5, "expectedPercent": 63.0}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 390, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.8, "confidenceLow": 54.5, "expectedCount": 232, "confidenceHigh": 64.2, "expectedPercent": 59.5}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 2682, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.5, "confidenceLow": 60.0, 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"returnDifference": -1.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.8, "probabilityDifference": -5.1}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 805, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -0.3, "confidenceLow": 39.6, "expectedCount": 346, "confidenceHigh": 46.4, "expectedPercent": 43.0}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 1009, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.3, "confidenceLow": 46.4, "expectedCount": 499, "confidenceHigh": 52.5, "expectedPercent": 49.5}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 2746, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -0.1, "confidenceLow": 43.4, "expectedCount": 1244, "confidenceHigh": 47.2, "expectedPercent": 45.3}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -1.6, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -2.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.2, 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"doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 14702, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 8.3, "confidenceLow": 56.8, "expectedCount": 8462, "confidenceHigh": 58.4, "expectedPercent": 57.6}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -0.6, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -2.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.5, "probabilityDifference": -3.4}], "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use the state to describe the current backdrop and to rank otherwise similar setups.", "role": "Context and risk control", "avoid": "Do not assume that a positive state must lead to a rise or that a negative state must lead to a fall.", "label": "No standalone edge", "state": "none", "confirm": "Require a change in Market Dynamics, confirmation from price, or a separate qualifying signal before treating the state as actionable.", "headline": "The sign describes the backdrop, not a directional trigger", "observed": "At 26 weeks, positive state was followed by a higher price in 54.8% of cases: -3.4 points versus negative state and -2.8 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was -0.6 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 0 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -2.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -5.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -2.6, "probabilityDifference": -6.0}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 8805, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.0, "confidenceLow": 51.3, "expectedCount": 4605, "confidenceHigh": 53.3, "expectedPercent": 52.3}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 8839, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.8, "confidenceLow": 53.6, "expectedCount": 4832, "confidenceHigh": 55.7, "expectedPercent": 54.7}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 15794, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.6, "confidenceLow": 53.0, "expectedCount": 8494, "confidenceHigh": 54.6, "expectedPercent": 53.8}, "horizons": [{"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 9269, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.8, "confidenceLow": 45.2, "expectedCount": 4283, "confidenceHigh": 47.2, "expectedPercent": 46.2}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 9292, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.6, "confidenceLow": 50.0, "expectedCount": 4738, "confidenceHigh": 52.0, "expectedPercent": 51.0}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 16896, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.3, "confidenceLow": 48.7, "expectedCount": 8348, "confidenceHigh": 50.2, "expectedPercent": 49.4}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": -0.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -3.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.5, "probabilityDifference": -4.8}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 8805, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.0, "confidenceLow": 51.3, "expectedCount": 4605, "confidenceHigh": 53.3, "expectedPercent": 52.3}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 8839, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.8, "confidenceLow": 53.6, "expectedCount": 4832, "confidenceHigh": 55.7, "expectedPercent": 54.7}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 15794, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.6, "confidenceLow": 53.0, "expectedCount": 8494, "confidenceHigh": 54.6, "expectedPercent": 53.8}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": -0.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.6, "probabilityDifference": -2.4}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 8275, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 8.0, "confidenceLow": 55.3, "expectedCount": 4667, "confidenceHigh": 57.5, "expectedPercent": 56.4}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 8274, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 9.2, "confidenceLow": 57.3, "expectedCount": 4830, "confidenceHigh": 59.4, "expectedPercent": 58.4}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 14702, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 8.3, "confidenceLow": 56.8, "expectedCount": 8462, "confidenceHigh": 58.4, "expectedPercent": 57.6}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": -1.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.3, "probabilityDifference": -2.0}], "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use strengthening or weakening to judge whether an existing price move is gaining or losing support.", "role": "Context and risk control", "avoid": "Do not act on a one-period change without checking whether the price structure agrees.", "label": "No standalone edge", "state": "none", "confirm": "Look for persistence in the change and a compatible response from price before increasing conviction.", "headline": "Strengthening and weakening are confirmation, not timing signals alone", "observed": "At 26 weeks, strengthening was followed by a higher price in 56.4% of cases: -2.0 points versus weakening and -1.2 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was -1.2 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 0 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -0.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.6, "probabilityDifference": -2.4}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 5664, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.2, "confidenceLow": 50.7, "expectedCount": 2944, "confidenceHigh": 53.3, "expectedPercent": 52.0}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 5268, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.0, "confidenceLow": 54.9, "expectedCount": 2965, "confidenceHigh": 57.6, "expectedPercent": 56.3}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 15794, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.6, "confidenceLow": 53.0, "expectedCount": 8494, "confidenceHigh": 54.6, "expectedPercent": 53.8}, "horizons": [{"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 6034, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.4, "confidenceLow": 44.5, "expectedCount": 2761, "confidenceHigh": 47.0, "expectedPercent": 45.8}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 5545, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.0, "confidenceLow": 51.0, "expectedCount": 2902, "confidenceHigh": 53.6, "expectedPercent": 52.3}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 16896, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.3, "confidenceLow": 48.7, "expectedCount": 8348, "confidenceHigh": 50.2, "expectedPercent": 49.4}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -1.6, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -3.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.9, "probabilityDifference": -6.5}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 5664, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.2, "confidenceLow": 50.7, "expectedCount": 2944, "confidenceHigh": 53.3, "expectedPercent": 52.0}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 5268, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.0, "confidenceLow": 54.9, "expectedCount": 2965, "confidenceHigh": 57.6, "expectedPercent": 56.3}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 15794, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.6, "confidenceLow": 53.0, "expectedCount": 8494, "confidenceHigh": 54.6, "expectedPercent": 53.8}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -0.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.4, "probabilityDifference": -4.3}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 5300, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 9.7, "confidenceLow": 56.4, "expectedCount": 3060, "confidenceHigh": 59.1, "expectedPercent": 57.7}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 5008, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.9, "confidenceLow": 56.4, "expectedCount": 2892, "confidenceHigh": 59.1, "expectedPercent": 57.7}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 14702, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 8.3, "confidenceLow": 56.8, "expectedCount": 8462, "confidenceHigh": 58.4, "expectedPercent": 57.6}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 1.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.4, "probabilityDifference": 0.0}], "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use agreement to distinguish supported trends from moves that lack confirmation.", "role": "Confirmation only", "avoid": "Do not confuse alignment with certainty; an aligned market can still reverse.", "label": "Weak separation", "state": "weak", "confirm": "Check that the advantage remains visible beyond the shortest horizon and repeats across completed years.", "headline": "Agreement describes alignment, but does not select direction by itself", "observed": "At 26 weeks, price and market dynamics positive was followed by a higher price in 57.7% of cases: +0.0 points versus price and market dynamics negative and +0.1 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +1.8 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 0 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -0.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.4, "probabilityDifference": -4.3}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 5307, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.1, "confidenceLow": 55.4, "expectedCount": 3012, "confidenceHigh": 58.1, "expectedPercent": 56.8}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 5087, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 2.3, "confidenceLow": 49.6, "expectedCount": 2592, "confidenceHigh": 52.3, "expectedPercent": 51.0}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 15794, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.6, "confidenceLow": 53.0, "expectedCount": 8494, "confidenceHigh": 54.6, "expectedPercent": 53.8}, "horizons": [{"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 5636, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.1, "confidenceLow": 51.6, "expectedCount": 2982, "confidenceHigh": 54.2, "expectedPercent": 52.9}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 5401, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.4, "confidenceLow": 43.5, "expectedCount": 2421, "confidenceHigh": 46.2, "expectedPercent": 44.8}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 16896, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.3, "confidenceLow": 48.7, "expectedCount": 8348, "confidenceHigh": 50.2, "expectedPercent": 49.4}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 1.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 3.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.8, "probabilityDifference": 8.1}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 5307, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.1, "confidenceLow": 55.4, "expectedCount": 3012, "confidenceHigh": 58.1, "expectedPercent": 56.8}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 5087, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 2.3, "confidenceLow": 49.6, "expectedCount": 2592, "confidenceHigh": 52.3, "expectedPercent": 51.0}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 15794, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.6, "confidenceLow": 53.0, "expectedCount": 8494, "confidenceHigh": 54.6, "expectedPercent": 53.8}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 2.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 3.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.5, "probabilityDifference": 5.8}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 4942, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 11.1, "confidenceLow": 58.8, "expectedCount": 2973, "confidenceHigh": 61.5, "expectedPercent": 60.2}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 4838, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.0, "confidenceLow": 53.5, "expectedCount": 2657, "confidenceHigh": 56.3, "expectedPercent": 54.9}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 14702, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 8.3, "confidenceLow": 56.8, "expectedCount": 8462, "confidenceHigh": 58.4, "expectedPercent": 57.6}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 5.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 2.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 2.8, "probabilityDifference": 5.3}], "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use disagreement to identify prices that may be early or late relative to the underlying market behaviour.", "role": "Conditional research angle", "avoid": "Do not assume every divergence must close, or that it must close immediately.", "label": "Horizon-specific", "state": "selective", "confirm": "Wait for price to begin resolving toward Market Dynamics, or for a separate signal to confirm the change.", "headline": "Market Dynamics leading price is an early-change watchlist angle", "observed": "At 4 weeks, market dynamics stronger than price was followed by a higher price in 52.9% of cases: +8.1 points versus price stronger than market dynamics and +3.5 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +1.7 points.", "bestHorizon": 4, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 1 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 1, "supportingHorizons": 3}, "returnDifference": 2.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 3.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.5, "probabilityDifference": 5.8}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 741, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.9, "confidenceLow": 53.4, "expectedCount": 422, "confidenceHigh": 60.5, "expectedPercent": 57.0}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 1733, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.9, "confidenceLow": 51.8, "expectedCount": 938, "confidenceHigh": 56.5, "expectedPercent": 54.1}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 15794, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.6, "confidenceLow": 53.0, "expectedCount": 8494, "confidenceHigh": 54.6, "expectedPercent": 53.8}, "horizons": [{"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 765, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.2, "confidenceLow": 52.7, "expectedCount": 430, "confidenceHigh": 59.7, "expectedPercent": 56.2}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 1802, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.5, "confidenceLow": 44.1, "expectedCount": 836, "confidenceHigh": 48.7, "expectedPercent": 46.4}, "state": "supports", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 16896, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.3, "confidenceLow": 48.7, "expectedCount": 8348, "confidenceHigh": 50.2, "expectedPercent": 49.4}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": 4.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 6.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 3.9, "probabilityDifference": 9.8}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 741, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.9, "confidenceLow": 53.4, "expectedCount": 422, "confidenceHigh": 60.5, "expectedPercent": 57.0}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 1733, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.9, "confidenceLow": 51.8, "expectedCount": 938, "confidenceHigh": 56.5, "expectedPercent": 54.1}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 15794, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.6, "confidenceLow": 53.0, "expectedCount": 8494, "confidenceHigh": 54.6, "expectedPercent": 53.8}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": 5.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 3.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 4.3, "probabilityDifference": 2.9}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 706, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 13.8, "confidenceLow": 56.8, "expectedCount": 427, "confidenceHigh": 64.0, "expectedPercent": 60.5}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 1613, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.2, "confidenceLow": 56.2, "expectedCount": 946, "confidenceHigh": 61.0, "expectedPercent": 58.6}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 14702, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 8.3, "confidenceLow": 56.8, "expectedCount": 8462, "confidenceHigh": 58.4, "expectedPercent": 57.6}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": 6.6, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 2.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 5.5, "probabilityDifference": 1.9}], "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use accumulation and distribution to frame price location, patience, risk and the quality of a later signal.", "role": "Conditional research angle", "avoid": "Do not buy solely because price is in accumulation or sell solely because it is in distribution.", "label": "Horizon-specific", "state": "selective", "confirm": "Look for a completed move out of the zone and a compatible Market Dynamics signal before treating location as timing.", "headline": "The zones add an asymmetric price-location angle", "observed": "At 4 weeks, accumulation was followed by a higher price in 56.2% of cases: +9.8 points versus distribution and +6.8 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +4.7 points.", "bestHorizon": 4, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 1 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 1, "supportingHorizons": 1}, "returnDifference": 5.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 3.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 4.3, "probabilityDifference": 2.9}], "buySignalCaseStudy": {"title": "First valid Market Dynamics signal", "horizons": [{"test": {"label": "Does not support an edge", "state": "doesNotSupport", "returnDifference": -0.9, "directionalEdgePoints": -3.1}, "weeks": 4, "sample": 574, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 0.4, "confidenceLow": 42.3, "expectedCount": 266, "confidenceHigh": 50.4, "baselinePercent": 49.4, "expectedPercent": 46.3, "baselineAverageReturn": 1.3}, {"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 4.0, "directionalEdgePoints": 10.5}, "weeks": 12, "sample": 367, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.6, "confidenceLow": 59.3, "expectedCount": 236, "confidenceHigh": 69.0, "baselinePercent": 53.8, "expectedPercent": 64.3, "baselineAverageReturn": 3.6}, {"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 10.4, "directionalEdgePoints": 20.3}, "weeks": 26, "sample": 344, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 18.7, "confidenceLow": 73.2, "expectedCount": 268, "confidenceHigh": 82.0, "baselinePercent": 57.6, "expectedPercent": 77.9, "baselineAverageReturn": 8.3}], "expectedDirection": "higher"}, "positioningOutcomes": {"accumulation": {"use": "Long positioning", "label": "Accumulation to distribution", "cycles": 118, "thresholds": [{"reached": 116, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 94.0, "confidenceHigh": 99.5, "cyclesObserved": 118, "reachedPercent": 98.3, "medianWeeksToReach": 3.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 11.5, "completedReachedPercent": 99.1}, {"reached": 113, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 90.5, "confidenceHigh": 98.2, "cyclesObserved": 118, "reachedPercent": 95.8, "medianWeeksToReach": 8, "averageWeeksToReach": 16.8, "completedReachedPercent": 97.2}, {"reached": 106, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 83.1, "confidenceHigh": 94.1, "cyclesObserved": 118, "reachedPercent": 89.8, "medianWeeksToReach": 20.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 28.7, "completedReachedPercent": 91.7}, {"reached": 99, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 76.2, "confidenceHigh": 89.4, "cyclesObserved": 118, "reachedPercent": 83.9, "medianWeeksToReach": 27, "averageWeeksToReach": 38.7, "completedReachedPercent": 87.0}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Completed cycles experienced an average adverse move of 16.1% before resolution. Position size and confirmation still matter.", "timing": "The condition lasted 5.7 weeks on average before price left accumulation, while the best advance in completed cycles occurred after 66.0 weeks on average.", "finding": "95.8% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 8 weeks); 89.8% reached 20% (median 20 weeks).", "headline": "Accumulation has been most useful as a patient long-positioning window", "application": "Use accumulation to prepare a long case, then require price confirmation before increasing conviction. The condition is a positioning context rather than a stand-alone instruction to buy.", "repeatability": "Later completed cycles resolved higher 100.0% of the time across 15 repeat cycles."}, "activeCycles": 10, "repeatedCycles": 15, "completedCycles": 108, "medianAdverseMove": 10.8, "medianCycleReturn": 50.5, "averageAdverseMove": 16.1, "averageCycleReturn": 72.7, "medianFavourableMove": 54.9, "averageFavourableMove": 77.9, "medianGrossOpportunity": 50.5, "averageGrossOpportunity": 72.7, "expectedDirectionPercent": 97.2, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": 4.51, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 72.5, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 5.2, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 92.4, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": 74.9, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 5.7, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 12, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 92.1, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 93, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 58.5, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 66.0, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 99.1, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": 100.0, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 79.6, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 100.0}, "distribution": {"use": "Downside risk and short positioning", "label": "Distribution to accumulation", "cycles": 105, "thresholds": [{"reached": 89, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 76.7, "confidenceHigh": 90.4, "cyclesObserved": 105, "reachedPercent": 84.8, "medianWeeksToReach": 5, "averageWeeksToReach": 15.4, "completedReachedPercent": 84.0}, {"reached": 79, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 66.2, "confidenceHigh": 82.5, "cyclesObserved": 105, "reachedPercent": 75.2, "medianWeeksToReach": 11, "averageWeeksToReach": 26.0, "completedReachedPercent": 76.0}, {"reached": 65, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 52.4, "confidenceHigh": 70.6, "cyclesObserved": 105, "reachedPercent": 61.9, "medianWeeksToReach": 26, "averageWeeksToReach": 41.0, "completedReachedPercent": 63.0}, {"reached": 47, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 35.6, "confidenceHigh": 54.3, "cyclesObserved": 105, "reachedPercent": 44.8, "medianWeeksToReach": 29, "averageWeeksToReach": 44.6, "completedReachedPercent": 45.0}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Price rose by 68.0% on average before completed downside cycles resolved. That adverse path makes unconfirmed or unbounded short positioning unsuitable.", "timing": "Price left distribution after 4.8 weeks on average, but the deepest reversal in completed cycles occurred after 63.0 weeks on average.", "finding": "75.2% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 11 weeks); 61.9% reached 20% (median 26 weeks).", "headline": "Distribution has been a downside warning before it has been a short entry", "application": "Use distribution first to review long exposure, protect gains and watch for downward confirmation. A short case needs price weakness and defined risk; distribution alone is not enough.", "repeatability": "Later completed cycles resolved lower 100.0% of the time across 10 repeat cycles."}, "activeCycles": 5, "repeatedCycles": 10, "completedCycles": 100, "medianAdverseMove": 27.4, "medianCycleReturn": -24.3, "averageAdverseMove": 68.0, "averageCycleReturn": -16.5, "medianFavourableMove": 25.4, "averageFavourableMove": 27.9, "medianGrossOpportunity": 24.3, "averageGrossOpportunity": 16.5, "expectedDirectionPercent": 81.0, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": 0.24, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 119.0, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 11.4, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 119.2, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": 36.9, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 4.8, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 7, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 72.2, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 90, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 55.5, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 63.0, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 87.5, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": 100.0, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 72.2, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 100.0}}}}}, "methodBoundary": "Public outcomes and sample sizes only. Proprietary signal construction is not disclosed."}