{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "0a08f930-8645-4f4e-89a2-100f5b5fe5e7",
    "symbol": "ARAW",
    "name": "abrdn Future Raw Materials UCITS ETF USD Accumulating",
    "exchange": "GER",
    "country": "DE",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "The SM framework classifies the established weekly price path as the Core Trend. Faster and slower Trend views and Sharemaestro context describe that state but do not alter its direction.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "latest_close": 2.1335,
    "direction": "positive",
    "state": "Positive, shorter trend weakening",
    "is_fresh": false,
    "is_near_boundary": false,
    "direction_boundary": 1.1796,
    "boundary_margin": 0.808664,
    "trend_agreement": "Broadly aligned",
    "persistence": "Early",
    "direction_turnover": "Low",
    "annualized_volatility": 0.381328,
    "volatility_stability": 0.8731,
    "risk_context": 0.2622,
    "current_regime": {
      "move": -0.036142,
      "interruption": -0.184782,
      "interruption_label": "Deepest pullback inside regime"
    },
    "research_priority": 84.615,
    "interpretation": {
      "label": "Positive, shorter trend weakening",
      "headline": "Positive, shorter trend weakening",
      "body": "The Core Trend remains in force, but the Fast Trend now points the other way. That is an early loss of persistence, not yet a regime change.",
      "age_context": "The current Core Trend remains in its early lifecycle.",
      "boundary_context": "The latest close is 80.9% above the decision boundary.",
      "stability_context": "Recent Core Trend turnover is low."
    },
    "chart_path": [
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 2.2135,
        "direction_boundary": 0.9177,
        "core_momentum": 1.412008,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.354428
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 2.2605,
        "direction_boundary": 0.9132,
        "core_momentum": 1.475361,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.75,
        "volatility": 0.34336
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 2.155,
        "direction_boundary": 0.9778,
        "core_momentum": 1.203927,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.75,
        "volatility": 0.351787
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 2.181,
        "direction_boundary": 0.975,
        "core_momentum": 1.236923,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.351343
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 2.15,
        "direction_boundary": 0.9743,
        "core_momentum": 1.206713,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.35208
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 1.978,
        "direction_boundary": 1.0032,
        "core_momentum": 0.971691,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.372573
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 1.9898,
        "direction_boundary": 1.0212,
        "core_momentum": 0.948492,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.75,
        "volatility": 0.371383
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 1.9078,
        "direction_boundary": 1.0594,
        "core_momentum": 0.800831,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.5,
        "volatility": 0.352493
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 1.8428,
        "direction_boundary": 1.1006,
        "core_momentum": 0.674359,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.5,
        "volatility": 0.34973
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 1.943,
        "direction_boundary": 1.1508,
        "core_momentum": 0.688391,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.5,
        "volatility": 0.349885
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 1.9086,
        "direction_boundary": 1.0868,
        "core_momentum": 0.756165,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.5,
        "volatility": 0.346282
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 2.1335,
        "direction_boundary": 1.1796,
        "core_momentum": 0.808664,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.75,
        "volatility": 0.381328
      }
    ],
    "price_history": [
      {
        "date": "2025-05-23",
        "close": 0.9177,
        "volume": 0
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-05-30",
        "close": 0.9132,
        "volume": 0
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-06-06",
        "close": 0.9778,
        "volume": 138300
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-06-13",
        "close": 0.975,
        "volume": 0
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-06-20",
        "close": 0.9743,
        "volume": 0
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-06-27",
        "close": 1.0032,
        "volume": 980
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-07-04",
        "close": 1.0212,
        "volume": 8000
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-07-11",
        "close": 1.0594,
        "volume": 501782
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-07-18",
        "close": 1.1006,
        "volume": 0
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-07-25",
        "close": 1.1508,
        "volume": 24824
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-08-01",
        "close": 1.0868,
        "volume": 22481
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-08-08",
        "close": 1.1796,
        "volume": 10100
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-08-15",
        "close": 1.2236,
        "volume": 500
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-08-22",
        "close": 1.2108,
        "volume": 48065
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-08-29",
        "close": 1.2606,
        "volume": 10575
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-09-05",
        "close": 1.2622,
        "volume": 63532
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-09-12",
        "close": 1.3084,
        "volume": 17818
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-09-19",
        "close": 1.3366,
        "volume": 32548
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-09-26",
        "close": 1.3978,
        "volume": 89042
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-10-03",
        "close": 1.4992,
        "volume": 56121
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-10-10",
        "close": 1.5504,
        "volume": 94572
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-10-17",
        "close": 1.5156,
        "volume": 25445
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-10-24",
        "close": 1.7825,
        "volume": 105559
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-10-31",
        "close": 1.5532,
        "volume": 45413
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-11-07",
        "close": 1.493,
        "volume": 20780
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-11-14",
        "close": 1.5564,
        "volume": 49351
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-11-21",
        "close": 1.51,
        "volume": 128115
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-11-28",
        "close": 1.6296,
        "volume": 67921
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-12-05",
        "close": 1.686,
        "volume": 27326
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-12-12",
        "close": 1.681,
        "volume": 44877
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-12-19",
        "close": 1.726,
        "volume": 54371
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-12-26",
        "close": 1.7802,
        "volume": 26702
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-01-02",
        "close": 1.825,
        "volume": 90280
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-01-09",
        "close": 2.0045,
        "volume": 239372
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-01-16",
        "close": 2.088,
        "volume": 245018
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-01-23",
        "close": 2.2005,
        "volume": 183552
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-01-30",
        "close": 2.1095,
        "volume": 418011
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-02-06",
        "close": 2.0975,
        "volume": 265972
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-02-13",
        "close": 2.1275,
        "volume": 125619
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-02-20",
        "close": 2.174,
        "volume": 74317
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-02-27",
        "close": 2.348,
        "volume": 137065
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-06",
        "close": 2.1735,
        "volume": 219180
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-13",
        "close": 2.1355,
        "volume": 224889
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-20",
        "close": 1.8788,
        "volume": 143093
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-27",
        "close": 1.9588,
        "volume": 252183
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-03",
        "close": 2.0785,
        "volume": 106719
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-10",
        "close": 2.209,
        "volume": 63576
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
        "close": 2.31,
        "volume": 57587
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "close": 2.211,
        "volume": 73355
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 2.207,
        "volume": 101201
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 2.2795,
        "volume": 154160
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 2.2105,
        "volume": 186396
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 2.2135,
        "volume": 103238
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 2.2605,
        "volume": 76700
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 2.155,
        "volume": 3196
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 2.181,
        "volume": 7888
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 2.15,
        "volume": 27846
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 1.978,
        "volume": 6182
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 1.9898,
        "volume": 5780
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 1.9078,
        "volume": 39698
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 1.8428,
        "volume": 30447
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 1.943,
        "volume": 11156
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 1.9086,
        "volume": 58185
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 2.1335,
        "volume": 53143
      }
    ],
    "sharemaestro_context": {
      "trend": 2.115353,
      "fair_value": 1.7127,
      "market_activity": -6.970563,
      "market_dynamics": -1.386909,
      "relative_strength": 5.623066
    },
    "historical_outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.08289,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "regime_survival": 1.0,
        "conditional_difference": -0.024157,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 0,
        "median_return": null,
        "directional_follow_through": null,
        "regime_survival": null,
        "conditional_difference": null,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Longer term",
        "sample_count": 0,
        "median_return": null,
        "directional_follow_through": null,
        "regime_survival": null,
        "conditional_difference": null,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 0,
        "median_return": null,
        "directional_follow_through": null,
        "regime_survival": null,
        "conditional_difference": null,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "regime_history": [
      {
        "direction": "positive",
        "start": "2026-05-22",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.036142
      }
    ]
  }
}