{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "23edf6b6-dedb-41f6-ad4d-1e4b7d6f8e4a",
    "symbol": "ARAW",
    "name": "abrdn Future Raw Mat UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "EBS",
    "country": "CH",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "The SM framework classifies the established weekly price path as the Core Trend. Faster and slower Trend views and Sharemaestro context describe that state but do not alter its direction.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "latest_close": 1.9624,
    "direction": "positive",
    "state": "Positive, shorter trend weakening",
    "is_fresh": false,
    "is_near_boundary": false,
    "direction_boundary": 1.1056,
    "boundary_margin": 0.774964,
    "trend_agreement": "Broadly aligned",
    "persistence": "Early",
    "direction_turnover": "Low",
    "annualized_volatility": 0.376458,
    "volatility_stability": 0.7804,
    "risk_context": 0.2656,
    "current_regime": {
      "move": 0.149889,
      "interruption": -0.025237,
      "interruption_label": "Deepest pullback inside regime"
    },
    "research_priority": 81.538,
    "interpretation": {
      "label": "Positive, shorter trend weakening",
      "headline": "Positive, shorter trend weakening",
      "body": "The Core Trend remains in force, but the Fast Trend now points the other way. That is an early loss of persistence, not yet a regime change.",
      "age_context": "The current Core Trend remains in its early lifecycle.",
      "boundary_context": "The latest close is 77.5% above the decision boundary.",
      "stability_context": "Recent Core Trend turnover is low."
    },
    "chart_path": [
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 1.7066,
        "direction_boundary": 1.0202,
        "core_momentum": 0.672809,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.5,
        "volatility": 0.340977
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 1.8148,
        "direction_boundary": 1.076,
        "core_momentum": 0.686617,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.5,
        "volatility": 0.347074
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 1.769,
        "direction_boundary": 1.0274,
        "core_momentum": 0.721822,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.5,
        "volatility": 0.347167
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 1.9624,
        "direction_boundary": 1.1056,
        "core_momentum": 0.774964,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.75,
        "volatility": 0.376458
      }
    ],
    "price_history": [
      {
        "date": "2025-07-18",
        "close": 1.0202,
        "volume": 0
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-07-25",
        "close": 1.076,
        "volume": 0
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-08-01",
        "close": 1.0274,
        "volume": 60000
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-08-08",
        "close": 1.1056,
        "volume": 0
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-08-15",
        "close": 1.151,
        "volume": 0
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-08-22",
        "close": 1.1352,
        "volume": 2500
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-08-29",
        "close": 1.1654,
        "volume": 0
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-09-05",
        "close": 1.195,
        "volume": 16500
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-09-12",
        "close": 1.226,
        "volume": 6000
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-09-19",
        "close": 1.245,
        "volume": 8006
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-09-26",
        "close": 1.3004,
        "volume": 23000
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-10-03",
        "close": 1.3938,
        "volume": 400
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-10-10",
        "close": 1.4464,
        "volume": 32596
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-10-17",
        "close": 1.4188,
        "volume": 16100
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-10-24",
        "close": 1.7825,
        "volume": 13200
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-10-31",
        "close": 1.4382,
        "volume": 10000
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-11-07",
        "close": 1.3922,
        "volume": 32000
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-11-14",
        "close": 1.444,
        "volume": 32000
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-11-21",
        "close": 1.4208,
        "volume": 129000
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-11-28",
        "close": 1.5098,
        "volume": 32000
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-12-05",
        "close": 1.581,
        "volume": 11151
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-12-12",
        "close": 1.604,
        "volume": 24508
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-12-19",
        "close": 1.6026,
        "volume": 10000
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-12-26",
        "close": 1.637,
        "volume": 302
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-01-02",
        "close": 1.6584,
        "volume": 0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-01-09",
        "close": 1.8672,
        "volume": 51102
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-01-16",
        "close": 1.9322,
        "volume": 132611
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        "date": "2026-01-23",
        "close": 2.017,
        "volume": 56288
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      {
        "date": "2026-01-30",
        "close": 1.9676,
        "volume": 280811
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      {
        "date": "2026-02-06",
        "close": 1.9206,
        "volume": 303263
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      {
        "date": "2026-02-13",
        "close": 1.9608,
        "volume": 9999
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      {
        "date": "2026-02-20",
        "close": 1.9866,
        "volume": 151452
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        "date": "2026-02-27",
        "close": 2.1365,
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        "date": "2026-03-06",
        "close": 1.9626,
        "volume": 132679
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        "date": "2026-03-13",
        "close": 1.935,
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      {
        "date": "2026-03-20",
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      {
        "date": "2026-03-27",
        "close": 1.7908,
        "volume": 64038
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-03",
        "close": 1.9186,
        "volume": 95162
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-10",
        "close": 2.0115,
        "volume": 48541
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
        "close": 2.119,
        "volume": 7800
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "close": 2.061,
        "volume": 1720
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 2.04,
        "volume": 2245
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 2.105,
        "volume": 76563
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 2.0195,
        "volume": 56724
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 2.0065,
        "volume": 30890
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 2.053,
        "volume": 101
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 1.9986,
        "volume": 0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 2.018,
        "volume": 7593
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 2.0215,
        "volume": 0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 1.8192,
        "volume": 0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 1.8116,
        "volume": 250
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 1.752,
        "volume": 4978
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 1.7066,
        "volume": 34
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 1.8148,
        "volume": 426
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 1.769,
        "volume": 0
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      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 1.9624,
        "volume": 1132
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    ],
    "sharemaestro_context": {
      "trend": 1.944717,
      "fair_value": 1.681882,
      "market_activity": -7.609668,
      "market_dynamics": -1.436147,
      "relative_strength": 2.790352
    },
    "historical_outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 0,
        "median_return": null,
        "directional_follow_through": null,
        "regime_survival": null,
        "conditional_difference": null,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 0,
        "median_return": null,
        "directional_follow_through": null,
        "regime_survival": null,
        "conditional_difference": null,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Longer term",
        "sample_count": 0,
        "median_return": null,
        "directional_follow_through": null,
        "regime_survival": null,
        "conditional_difference": null,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 0,
        "median_return": null,
        "directional_follow_through": null,
        "regime_survival": null,
        "conditional_difference": null,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "regime_history": [
      {
        "direction": "positive",
        "start": "2026-07-17",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Brief",
        "return": 0.149889
      }
    ]
  }
}