{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "5318898b-9269-48d8-808e-b835c29f4d8e",
    "symbol": "9840",
    "name": "SPDR Gold Shares",
    "exchange": "HKG",
    "country": "HK",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "The SM framework classifies the established weekly price path as the Core Trend. Faster and slower Trend views and Sharemaestro context describe that state but do not alter its direction.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "latest_close": 393.399994,
    "direction": "positive",
    "state": "Positive, shorter trend weakening",
    "is_fresh": false,
    "is_near_boundary": false,
    "direction_boundary": 312.0,
    "boundary_margin": 0.260897,
    "trend_agreement": "Divided",
    "persistence": "Established",
    "direction_turnover": "Low",
    "annualized_volatility": 0.244437,
    "volatility_stability": 0.9389,
    "risk_context": 0.4091,
    "current_regime": {
      "move": -0.002029,
      "interruption": -0.231689,
      "interruption_label": "Deepest pullback inside regime"
    },
    "research_priority": 80.0,
    "interpretation": {
      "label": "Positive, shorter trend weakening",
      "headline": "Positive, shorter trend weakening",
      "body": "The Core Trend remains in force, but the Fast Trend now points the other way. That is an early loss of persistence, not yet a regime change.",
      "age_context": "The current Core Trend is established.",
      "boundary_context": "The latest close is 26.1% above the decision boundary.",
      "stability_context": "Recent Core Trend turnover is low."
    },
    "chart_path": [
      {
        "date": "2025-12-12",
        "close": 394.200012,
        "direction_boundary": 248.5,
        "core_momentum": 0.586318,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.211076
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-12-19",
        "close": 397.5,
        "direction_boundary": 241.0,
        "core_momentum": 0.649378,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.207477
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-12-26",
        "close": 412.799988,
        "direction_boundary": 242.699997,
        "core_momentum": 0.700865,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.207205
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-01-02",
        "close": 402.700012,
        "direction_boundary": 244.5,
        "core_momentum": 0.647035,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.213182
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-01-09",
        "close": 410.799988,
        "direction_boundary": 247.100006,
        "core_momentum": 0.662485,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.212179
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-01-16",
        "close": 423.299988,
        "direction_boundary": 249.800003,
        "core_momentum": 0.694556,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.213309
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-01-23",
        "close": 455.200012,
        "direction_boundary": 255.399994,
        "core_momentum": 0.782302,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.22902
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-01-30",
        "close": 475.399994,
        "direction_boundary": 253.0,
        "core_momentum": 0.879051,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.226357
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-02-06",
        "close": 444.799988,
        "direction_boundary": 263.700012,
        "core_momentum": 0.686765,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.253791
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-02-13",
        "close": 457.600006,
        "direction_boundary": 270.899994,
        "core_momentum": 0.689184,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.251816
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-02-20",
        "close": 460.299988,
        "direction_boundary": 270.399994,
        "core_momentum": 0.702293,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.250486
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-02-27",
        "close": 476.5,
        "direction_boundary": 264.399994,
        "core_momentum": 0.802194,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.251592
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-06",
        "close": 474.299988,
        "direction_boundary": 269.200012,
        "core_momentum": 0.761887,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.251181
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-13",
        "close": 466.799988,
        "direction_boundary": 275.5,
        "core_momentum": 0.694374,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.253818
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-20",
        "close": 431.899994,
        "direction_boundary": 280.0,
        "core_momentum": 0.5425,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.282909
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-27",
        "close": 408.799988,
        "direction_boundary": 284.0,
        "core_momentum": 0.439437,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.75,
        "volatility": 0.295294
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-03",
        "close": 426.899994,
        "direction_boundary": 289.0,
        "core_momentum": 0.477163,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.298545
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-10",
        "close": 435.899994,
        "direction_boundary": 295.200012,
        "core_momentum": 0.476626,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.297325
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
        "close": 438.700012,
        "direction_boundary": 307.0,
        "core_momentum": 0.42899,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.272724
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "close": 430.5,
        "direction_boundary": 305.799988,
        "core_momentum": 0.407783,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.75,
        "volatility": 0.259398
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 421.899994,
        "direction_boundary": 299.200012,
        "core_momentum": 0.410094,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.75,
        "volatility": 0.259999
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 432.600006,
        "direction_boundary": 305.899994,
        "core_momentum": 0.414188,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.75,
        "volatility": 0.261005
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 420.0,
        "direction_boundary": 296.700012,
        "core_momentum": 0.415571,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.75,
        "volatility": 0.259997
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 414.899994,
        "direction_boundary": 306.200012,
        "core_momentum": 0.354997,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.75,
        "volatility": 0.254562
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 414.899994,
        "direction_boundary": 304.299988,
        "core_momentum": 0.363457,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.75,
        "volatility": 0.249819
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 409.100006,
        "direction_boundary": 310.0,
        "core_momentum": 0.319677,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.75,
        "volatility": 0.250687
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 384.0,
        "direction_boundary": 314.700012,
        "core_momentum": 0.22021,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.5,
        "volatility": 0.265759
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 393.700012,
        "direction_boundary": 309.0,
        "core_momentum": 0.27411,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.5,
        "volatility": 0.267917
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 369.100006,
        "direction_boundary": 303.700012,
        "core_momentum": 0.215344,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.5,
        "volatility": 0.276218
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 382.799988,
        "direction_boundary": 308.600006,
        "core_momentum": 0.240441,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.5,
        "volatility": 0.280163
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 376.700012,
        "direction_boundary": 306.600006,
        "core_momentum": 0.228637,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.5,
        "volatility": 0.278988
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 366.100006,
        "direction_boundary": 307.299988,
        "core_momentum": 0.191344,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.25,
        "volatility": 0.276809
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 371.700012,
        "direction_boundary": 310.100006,
        "core_momentum": 0.198646,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.25,
        "volatility": 0.254928
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 373.600006,
        "direction_boundary": 303.700012,
        "core_momentum": 0.230161,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.5,
        "volatility": 0.244872
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 393.399994,
        "direction_boundary": 312.0,
        "core_momentum": 0.260897,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.5,
        "volatility": 0.244437
      }
    ],
    "price_history": [
      {
        "date": "2024-12-13",
        "close": 248.5,
        "volume": 120
      },
      {
        "date": "2024-12-20",
        "close": 241.0,
        "volume": 0
      },
      {
        "date": "2024-12-27",
        "close": 242.699997,
        "volume": 0
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-01-03",
        "close": 244.5,
        "volume": 0
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-01-10",
        "close": 247.100006,
        "volume": 40
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-01-17",
        "close": 249.800003,
        "volume": 140
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-01-24",
        "close": 255.399994,
        "volume": 707
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-01-31",
        "close": 253.0,
        "volume": 0
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-02-07",
        "close": 263.700012,
        "volume": 0
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-02-14",
        "close": 270.899994,
        "volume": 725
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-02-21",
        "close": 270.399994,
        "volume": 455
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-02-28",
        "close": 264.399994,
        "volume": 335
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-03-07",
        "close": 269.200012,
        "volume": 675
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-03-14",
        "close": 275.5,
        "volume": 70
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-03-21",
        "close": 280.0,
        "volume": 395
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-03-28",
        "close": 284.0,
        "volume": 0
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-04-04",
        "close": 289.0,
        "volume": 100
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-04-11",
        "close": 295.200012,
        "volume": 325
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-04-18",
        "close": 307.0,
        "volume": 200
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-04-25",
        "close": 305.799988,
        "volume": 569
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-05-02",
        "close": 299.200012,
        "volume": 5
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-05-09",
        "close": 305.899994,
        "volume": 588
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-05-16",
        "close": 296.700012,
        "volume": 575
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-05-23",
        "close": 306.200012,
        "volume": 0
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-05-30",
        "close": 304.299988,
        "volume": 80
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-06-06",
        "close": 310.0,
        "volume": 50
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-06-13",
        "close": 314.700012,
        "volume": 350
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-06-20",
        "close": 309.0,
        "volume": 153
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-06-27",
        "close": 303.700012,
        "volume": 635
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-07-04",
        "close": 308.600006,
        "volume": 0
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-07-11",
        "close": 306.600006,
        "volume": 0
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-07-18",
        "close": 307.299988,
        "volume": 0
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-07-25",
        "close": 310.100006,
        "volume": 0
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-08-01",
        "close": 303.700012,
        "volume": 0
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-08-08",
        "close": 312.0,
        "volume": 35
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-08-15",
        "close": 308.299988,
        "volume": 10
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-08-22",
        "close": 306.700012,
        "volume": 0
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-08-29",
        "close": 314.299988,
        "volume": 0
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-09-05",
        "close": 326.299988,
        "volume": 348
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-09-12",
        "close": 335.5,
        "volume": 0
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-09-19",
        "close": 336.0,
        "volume": 227
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-09-26",
        "close": 345.5,
        "volume": 64
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-10-03",
        "close": 354.600006,
        "volume": 0
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-10-10",
        "close": 365.600006,
        "volume": 145
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-10-17",
        "close": 399.600006,
        "volume": 48
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-10-24",
        "close": 376.5,
        "volume": 166
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-10-31",
        "close": 370.200012,
        "volume": 1232
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-11-07",
        "close": 368.299988,
        "volume": 272
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-11-14",
        "close": 384.399994,
        "volume": 1956
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-11-21",
        "close": 370.5,
        "volume": 224
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-11-28",
        "close": 385.0,
        "volume": 44
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-12-05",
        "close": 388.799988,
        "volume": 175
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-12-12",
        "close": 394.200012,
        "volume": 495
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-12-19",
        "close": 397.5,
        "volume": 620
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-12-26",
        "close": 412.799988,
        "volume": 107
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-01-02",
        "close": 402.700012,
        "volume": 777
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-01-09",
        "close": 410.799988,
        "volume": 182
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-01-16",
        "close": 423.299988,
        "volume": 8
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-01-23",
        "close": 455.200012,
        "volume": 2304
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-01-30",
        "close": 475.399994,
        "volume": 6761
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-02-06",
        "close": 444.799988,
        "volume": 7681
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-02-13",
        "close": 457.600006,
        "volume": 751
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-02-20",
        "close": 460.299988,
        "volume": 0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-02-27",
        "close": 476.5,
        "volume": 846
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-06",
        "close": 474.299988,
        "volume": 1708
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-13",
        "close": 466.799988,
        "volume": 198
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-20",
        "close": 431.899994,
        "volume": 105
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-27",
        "close": 408.799988,
        "volume": 4113
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-03",
        "close": 426.899994,
        "volume": 0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-10",
        "close": 435.899994,
        "volume": 34
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
        "close": 438.700012,
        "volume": 0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "close": 430.5,
        "volume": 2051
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 421.899994,
        "volume": 0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 432.600006,
        "volume": 0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 420.0,
        "volume": 25
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 414.899994,
        "volume": 280
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 414.899994,
        "volume": 0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 409.100006,
        "volume": 4
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 384.0,
        "volume": 0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 393.700012,
        "volume": 12
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 369.100006,
        "volume": 0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 382.799988,
        "volume": 0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 376.700012,
        "volume": 0
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 366.100006,
        "volume": 110
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 371.700012,
        "volume": 19
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 373.600006,
        "volume": 10
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 393.399994,
        "volume": 10
      }
    ],
    "sharemaestro_context": {
      "trend": 421.046665,
      "fair_value": 352.190805,
      "market_activity": -19.436855,
      "market_dynamics": -1.022164,
      "relative_strength": -0.990438
    },
    "historical_outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.012661,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "regime_survival": 1.0,
        "conditional_difference": 0.024373,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 0,
        "median_return": null,
        "directional_follow_through": null,
        "regime_survival": null,
        "conditional_difference": null,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Longer term",
        "sample_count": 0,
        "median_return": null,
        "directional_follow_through": null,
        "regime_survival": null,
        "conditional_difference": null,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 0,
        "median_return": null,
        "directional_follow_through": null,
        "regime_survival": null,
        "conditional_difference": null,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "regime_history": [
      {
        "direction": "positive",
        "start": "2025-12-12",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.002029
      }
    ]
  }
}