{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "99ce1237-6bac-4c03-8537-e03b50b6fd78",
    "symbol": "I500",
    "name": "iShares S&P 500 Swap UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "The SM framework classifies the established weekly price path as the Core Trend. Faster and slower Trend views and Sharemaestro context describe that state but do not alter its direction.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "latest_close": 11.242,
    "direction": "positive",
    "state": "Positive across all Trend views",
    "is_fresh": false,
    "is_near_boundary": false,
    "direction_boundary": 9.058,
    "boundary_margin": 0.241113,
    "trend_agreement": "Fully aligned",
    "persistence": "Mature",
    "direction_turnover": "Low",
    "annualized_volatility": 0.116553,
    "volatility_stability": 0.9176,
    "risk_context": 0.858,
    "current_regime": {
      "move": 0.257213,
      "interruption": -0.068665,
      "interruption_label": "Deepest pullback inside regime"
    },
    "research_priority": 100.0,
    "interpretation": {
      "label": "Positive across all Trend views",
      "headline": "All measured Trend views are positive",
      "body": "The faster, intermediate, established and Core Trend views point in the same direction, giving the current regime broad agreement.",
      "age_context": "The current Core Trend has persisted into a mature lifecycle.",
      "boundary_context": "The latest close is 24.1% above the decision boundary.",
      "stability_context": "Recent Core Trend turnover is low."
    },
    "chart_path": [
      {
        "date": "2025-08-01",
        "close": 8.942,
        "direction_boundary": 8.309,
        "core_momentum": 0.076182,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.75,
        "volatility": 0.217511
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-08-08",
        "close": 9.058,
        "direction_boundary": 7.974,
        "core_momentum": 0.135942,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.5,
        "volatility": 0.218568
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-08-15",
        "close": 9.175,
        "direction_boundary": 8.069,
        "core_momentum": 0.137068,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.75,
        "volatility": 0.219562
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-08-22",
        "close": 9.152,
        "direction_boundary": 8.231,
        "core_momentum": 0.111894,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.5,
        "volatility": 0.219544
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-08-29",
        "close": 9.151,
        "direction_boundary": 8.232,
        "core_momentum": 0.111638,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.5,
        "volatility": 0.215757
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-09-05",
        "close": 9.136,
        "direction_boundary": 8.176,
        "core_momentum": 0.117417,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.75,
        "volatility": 0.187732
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-09-12",
        "close": 9.325,
        "direction_boundary": 8.314,
        "core_momentum": 0.121602,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.75,
        "volatility": 0.187569
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-09-19",
        "close": 9.377,
        "direction_boundary": 8.362,
        "core_momentum": 0.121382,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.75,
        "volatility": 0.187196
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-09-26",
        "close": 9.4,
        "direction_boundary": 8.415,
        "core_momentum": 0.117053,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.75,
        "volatility": 0.186053
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-10-03",
        "close": 9.53,
        "direction_boundary": 8.539,
        "core_momentum": 0.116056,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.128721
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-10-10",
        "close": 9.49,
        "direction_boundary": 8.589,
        "core_momentum": 0.104902,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.124486
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-10-17",
        "close": 9.421,
        "direction_boundary": 8.868,
        "core_momentum": 0.062359,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.75,
        "volatility": 0.126184
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-10-24",
        "close": 9.615,
        "direction_boundary": 8.859,
        "core_momentum": 0.085337,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.120378
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-10-31",
        "close": 9.846,
        "direction_boundary": 8.699,
        "core_momentum": 0.131854,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.11586
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-11-07",
        "close": 9.532,
        "direction_boundary": 9.171,
        "core_momentum": 0.039363,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.75,
        "volatility": 0.128005
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-11-14",
        "close": 9.672,
        "direction_boundary": 9.163,
        "core_momentum": 0.055549,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.1058
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-11-21",
        "close": 9.502,
        "direction_boundary": 9.411,
        "core_momentum": 0.00967,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.75,
        "volatility": 0.092243
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-11-28",
        "close": 9.8,
        "direction_boundary": 9.393,
        "core_momentum": 0.04333,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.097806
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-12-05",
        "close": 9.823,
        "direction_boundary": 9.468,
        "core_momentum": 0.037495,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.097361
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-12-12",
        "close": 9.67,
        "direction_boundary": 9.468,
        "core_momentum": 0.021335,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.09901
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-12-19",
        "close": 9.701,
        "direction_boundary": 9.388,
        "core_momentum": 0.03334,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.098508
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-12-26",
        "close": 9.745,
        "direction_boundary": 9.409,
        "core_momentum": 0.03571,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.096786
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-01-02",
        "close": 9.7,
        "direction_boundary": 9.457,
        "core_momentum": 0.025695,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.097559
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-01-09",
        "close": 9.955,
        "direction_boundary": 9.354,
        "core_momentum": 0.064251,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.102017
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-01-16",
        "close": 9.976,
        "direction_boundary": 9.601,
        "core_momentum": 0.039058,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.101741
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-01-23",
        "close": 9.803,
        "direction_boundary": 9.574,
        "core_momentum": 0.023919,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.106009
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-01-30",
        "close": 9.721,
        "direction_boundary": 9.679,
        "core_momentum": 0.004339,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.75,
        "volatility": 0.106357
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-02-06",
        "close": 9.718,
        "direction_boundary": 9.62,
        "core_momentum": 0.010187,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.105527
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-02-13",
        "close": 9.654,
        "direction_boundary": 9.586,
        "core_momentum": 0.007094,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.75,
        "volatility": 0.105239
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-02-20",
        "close": 9.73,
        "direction_boundary": 9.59,
        "core_momentum": 0.014599,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.105339
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-02-27",
        "close": 9.688,
        "direction_boundary": 9.307,
        "core_momentum": 0.040937,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.75,
        "volatility": 0.105698
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-06",
        "close": 9.825,
        "direction_boundary": 8.639,
        "core_momentum": 0.137284,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.106792
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-13",
        "close": 9.698,
        "direction_boundary": 8.505,
        "core_momentum": 0.14027,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.105796
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-20",
        "close": 9.465,
        "direction_boundary": 8.608,
        "core_momentum": 0.099559,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.75,
        "volatility": 0.111469
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-27",
        "close": 9.291,
        "direction_boundary": 8.513,
        "core_momentum": 0.09139,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.5,
        "volatility": 0.114447
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-03",
        "close": 9.506,
        "direction_boundary": 7.784,
        "core_momentum": 0.221223,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.5,
        "volatility": 0.117378
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-10",
        "close": 9.725,
        "direction_boundary": 7.644,
        "core_momentum": 0.27224,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.75,
        "volatility": 0.121385
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
        "close": 10.086,
        "direction_boundary": 7.668,
        "core_momentum": 0.315336,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.13028
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "close": 10.186,
        "direction_boundary": 7.959,
        "core_momentum": 0.279809,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.128212
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 10.21,
        "direction_boundary": 8.247,
        "core_momentum": 0.238026,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.124406
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 10.486,
        "direction_boundary": 8.299,
        "core_momentum": 0.263526,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.119165
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 10.682,
        "direction_boundary": 8.781,
        "core_momentum": 0.21649,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.120009
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 10.798,
        "direction_boundary": 8.449,
        "core_momentum": 0.278021,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.116224
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 10.86,
        "direction_boundary": 8.595,
        "core_momentum": 0.263525,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.110057
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 10.858,
        "direction_boundary": 8.698,
        "core_momentum": 0.248333,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.110186
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 10.766,
        "direction_boundary": 8.601,
        "core_momentum": 0.251715,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.108065
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 10.934,
        "direction_boundary": 8.579,
        "core_momentum": 0.274508,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.109191
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 10.822,
        "direction_boundary": 8.73,
        "core_momentum": 0.239633,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.111129
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 10.976,
        "direction_boundary": 8.77,
        "core_momentum": 0.251539,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.11125
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 11.062,
        "direction_boundary": 8.854,
        "core_momentum": 0.249379,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.107104
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 10.944,
        "direction_boundary": 8.944,
        "core_momentum": 0.223614,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.109032
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 10.954,
        "direction_boundary": 9.002,
        "core_momentum": 0.216841,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.10483
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 10.81,
        "direction_boundary": 8.942,
        "core_momentum": 0.208902,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.106203
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 11.242,
        "direction_boundary": 9.058,
        "core_momentum": 0.241113,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.116553
      }
    ],
    "price_history": [
      {
        "date": "2024-08-02",
        "close": 8.309,
        "volume": 12584
      },
      {
        "date": "2024-08-09",
        "close": 7.974,
        "volume": 41139
      },
      {
        "date": "2024-08-16",
        "close": 8.069,
        "volume": 130
      },
      {
        "date": "2024-08-23",
        "close": 8.231,
        "volume": 3181
      },
      {
        "date": "2024-08-30",
        "close": 8.232,
        "volume": 2786
      },
      {
        "date": "2024-09-06",
        "close": 8.176,
        "volume": 469
      },
      {
        "date": "2024-09-13",
        "close": 8.314,
        "volume": 5216
      },
      {
        "date": "2024-09-20",
        "close": 8.362,
        "volume": 2641
      },
      {
        "date": "2024-09-27",
        "close": 8.415,
        "volume": 456
      },
      {
        "date": "2024-10-04",
        "close": 8.539,
        "volume": 969
      },
      {
        "date": "2024-10-11",
        "close": 8.589,
        "volume": 3895
      },
      {
        "date": "2024-10-18",
        "close": 8.868,
        "volume": 8771
      },
      {
        "date": "2024-10-25",
        "close": 8.859,
        "volume": 4440
      },
      {
        "date": "2024-11-01",
        "close": 8.699,
        "volume": 13736
      },
      {
        "date": "2024-11-08",
        "close": 9.171,
        "volume": 21533
      },
      {
        "date": "2024-11-15",
        "close": 9.163,
        "volume": 31587
      },
      {
        "date": "2024-11-22",
        "close": 9.411,
        "volume": 36820
      },
      {
        "date": "2024-11-29",
        "close": 9.393,
        "volume": 29933
      },
      {
        "date": "2024-12-06",
        "close": 9.468,
        "volume": 188911
      },
      {
        "date": "2024-12-13",
        "close": 9.468,
        "volume": 309336
      },
      {
        "date": "2024-12-20",
        "close": 9.388,
        "volume": 818646
      },
      {
        "date": "2024-12-27",
        "close": 9.409,
        "volume": 50655
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-01-03",
        "close": 9.457,
        "volume": 249409
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-01-10",
        "close": 9.354,
        "volume": 434682
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-01-17",
        "close": 9.601,
        "volume": 578206
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-01-24",
        "close": 9.574,
        "volume": 579570
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-01-31",
        "close": 9.679,
        "volume": 509908
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-02-07",
        "close": 9.62,
        "volume": 698735
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-02-14",
        "close": 9.586,
        "volume": 434220
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-02-21",
        "close": 9.59,
        "volume": 228501
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-02-28",
        "close": 9.307,
        "volume": 189985
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-03-07",
        "close": 8.639,
        "volume": 216132
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-03-14",
        "close": 8.505,
        "volume": 134600
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-03-21",
        "close": 8.608,
        "volume": 452503
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-03-28",
        "close": 8.513,
        "volume": 384990
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-04-04",
        "close": 7.784,
        "volume": 594589
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-04-11",
        "close": 7.644,
        "volume": 1177321
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-04-18",
        "close": 7.668,
        "volume": 211127
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-04-25",
        "close": 7.959,
        "volume": 238337
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-05-02",
        "close": 8.247,
        "volume": 115316
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-05-09",
        "close": 8.299,
        "volume": 115480
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-05-16",
        "close": 8.781,
        "volume": 65437
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-05-23",
        "close": 8.449,
        "volume": 40502
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-05-30",
        "close": 8.595,
        "volume": 163923
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-06-06",
        "close": 8.698,
        "volume": 80588
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-06-13",
        "close": 8.601,
        "volume": 65647
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-06-20",
        "close": 8.579,
        "volume": 76629
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-06-27",
        "close": 8.73,
        "volume": 107585
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-07-04",
        "close": 8.77,
        "volume": 119661
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-07-11",
        "close": 8.854,
        "volume": 210255
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-07-18",
        "close": 8.944,
        "volume": 186749
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-07-25",
        "close": 9.002,
        "volume": 66268
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-08-01",
        "close": 8.942,
        "volume": 301043
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-08-08",
        "close": 9.058,
        "volume": 60566
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-08-15",
        "close": 9.175,
        "volume": 150469
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-08-22",
        "close": 9.152,
        "volume": 177021
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-08-29",
        "close": 9.151,
        "volume": 46956
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-09-05",
        "close": 9.136,
        "volume": 257512
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-09-12",
        "close": 9.325,
        "volume": 16332
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-09-19",
        "close": 9.377,
        "volume": 121749
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-09-26",
        "close": 9.4,
        "volume": 86699
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-10-03",
        "close": 9.53,
        "volume": 108975
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-10-10",
        "close": 9.49,
        "volume": 51049
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-10-17",
        "close": 9.421,
        "volume": 148667
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-10-24",
        "close": 9.615,
        "volume": 98622
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-10-31",
        "close": 9.846,
        "volume": 202822
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-11-07",
        "close": 9.532,
        "volume": 165408
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-11-14",
        "close": 9.672,
        "volume": 124704
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-11-21",
        "close": 9.502,
        "volume": 94365
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-11-28",
        "close": 9.8,
        "volume": 68794
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-12-05",
        "close": 9.823,
        "volume": 53418
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-12-12",
        "close": 9.67,
        "volume": 18292
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-12-19",
        "close": 9.701,
        "volume": 73291
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-12-26",
        "close": 9.745,
        "volume": 25005
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-01-02",
        "close": 9.7,
        "volume": 62738
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-01-09",
        "close": 9.955,
        "volume": 208038
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-01-16",
        "close": 9.976,
        "volume": 155480
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-01-23",
        "close": 9.803,
        "volume": 229903
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-01-30",
        "close": 9.721,
        "volume": 181587
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-02-06",
        "close": 9.718,
        "volume": 405593
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-02-13",
        "close": 9.654,
        "volume": 139571
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-02-20",
        "close": 9.73,
        "volume": 193774
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-02-27",
        "close": 9.688,
        "volume": 215919
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-06",
        "close": 9.825,
        "volume": 373092
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-13",
        "close": 9.698,
        "volume": 344018
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-20",
        "close": 9.465,
        "volume": 465332
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-27",
        "close": 9.291,
        "volume": 320313
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-03",
        "close": 9.506,
        "volume": 198040
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-10",
        "close": 9.725,
        "volume": 231809
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
        "close": 10.086,
        "volume": 197904
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "close": 10.186,
        "volume": 302588
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 10.21,
        "volume": 222342
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 10.486,
        "volume": 311922
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 10.682,
        "volume": 227071
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 10.798,
        "volume": 97648
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 10.86,
        "volume": 146949
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 10.858,
        "volume": 34118
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 10.766,
        "volume": 209247
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 10.934,
        "volume": 50547
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 10.822,
        "volume": 205316
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 10.976,
        "volume": 9480
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 11.062,
        "volume": 194527
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 10.944,
        "volume": 556672
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 10.954,
        "volume": 568863
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 10.81,
        "volume": 358276
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 11.242,
        "volume": 366225
      }
    ],
    "sharemaestro_context": {
      "trend": 10.282533,
      "fair_value": 9.361679,
      "market_activity": 51.080129,
      "market_dynamics": 0.790567,
      "relative_strength": -3.114178
    },
    "historical_outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 10,
        "median_return": 0.006908,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "regime_survival": 1.0,
        "conditional_difference": -0.004696,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.017838,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6667,
        "regime_survival": 1.0,
        "conditional_difference": -0.032465,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Longer term",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": -0.002518,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "regime_survival": 1.0,
        "conditional_difference": -0.094593,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 0,
        "median_return": null,
        "directional_follow_through": null,
        "regime_survival": null,
        "conditional_difference": null,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "regime_history": [
      {
        "direction": "positive",
        "start": "2025-08-01",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.257213
      }
    ]
  }
}