{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "af2792b4-dcec-431f-a0c7-46119ff36705",
    "symbol": "UST10",
    "name": "UBS Core US Treasury 10+ a",
    "exchange": "EBS",
    "country": "CH",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "The SM framework classifies the established weekly price path as the Core Trend. Faster and slower Trend views and Sharemaestro context describe that state but do not alter its direction.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "latest_close": 9.7748,
    "direction": "negative",
    "state": "Fresh negative regime",
    "is_fresh": true,
    "is_near_boundary": true,
    "direction_boundary": 9.7922,
    "boundary_margin": -0.001777,
    "trend_agreement": "Fully aligned",
    "persistence": "Fresh",
    "direction_turnover": "Moderate",
    "annualized_volatility": 1.358357,
    "volatility_stability": 0.0841,
    "risk_context": 0.0736,
    "current_regime": {
      "move": 0.0,
      "interruption": 0.0,
      "interruption_label": "Largest rebound inside regime"
    },
    "research_priority": 57.924,
    "interpretation": {
      "label": "Fresh negative regime",
      "headline": "The Core Trend has just turned negative",
      "body": "The Direction Boundary has been crossed. The faster and slower Trend views show whether the change is becoming broadly established or quickly reversing.",
      "age_context": "The current Core Trend is newly established.",
      "boundary_context": "The latest close is 0.2% below the decision boundary.",
      "stability_context": "Recent Core Trend turnover is moderate."
    },
    "chart_path": [
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 9.9316,
        "direction_boundary": 9.5395,
        "core_momentum": 0.041103,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.25,
        "volatility": 1.358225
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 9.7918,
        "direction_boundary": 9.6567,
        "core_momentum": 0.01399,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.25,
        "volatility": 1.358356
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 9.7396,
        "direction_boundary": 9.7264,
        "core_momentum": 0.001357,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.25,
        "volatility": 1.358349
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 9.7748,
        "direction_boundary": 9.7922,
        "core_momentum": -0.001777,
        "direction": "negative",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 1.358357
      }
    ],
    "price_history": [
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        "date": "2025-07-18",
        "close": 9.5395,
        "volume": 0
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-07-25",
        "close": 9.6567,
        "volume": 0
      },
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        "date": "2025-08-01",
        "close": 9.7264,
        "volume": 1093
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      {
        "date": "2025-08-08",
        "close": 9.7922,
        "volume": 1093
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-08-15",
        "close": 9.743,
        "volume": 14668
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        "close": 9.7468,
        "volume": 4372
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        "date": "2025-08-29",
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        "volume": 9837
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        "date": "2025-09-05",
        "close": 9.9402,
        "volume": 13116
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        "date": "2025-09-12",
        "close": 10.093,
        "volume": 2150
      },
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        "date": "2025-09-19",
        "close": 10.019,
        "volume": 4300
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-09-26",
        "close": 10.0225,
        "volume": 1075
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-10-03",
        "close": 10.1075,
        "volume": 21492
      },
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        "date": "2025-10-10",
        "close": 10.159,
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      },
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        "date": "2025-10-17",
        "close": 10.301,
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        "date": "2025-10-24",
        "close": 10.2919,
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      },
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        "date": "2025-10-31",
        "close": 10.196,
        "volume": 8600
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        "date": "2025-11-07",
        "close": 10.1585,
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        "date": "2025-11-14",
        "close": 10.156,
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        "date": "2025-11-21",
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        "date": "2025-11-28",
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        "date": "2025-12-05",
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        "date": "2025-12-12",
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        "date": "2025-12-19",
        "close": 10.041,
        "volume": 0
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        "date": "2025-12-26",
        "close": 10.056,
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        "date": "2026-01-02",
        "close": 10.069,
        "volume": 0
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        "date": "2026-01-09",
        "close": 10.0245,
        "volume": 2150
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        "date": "2026-01-16",
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        "date": "2026-01-23",
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        "date": "2026-02-27",
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        "date": "2026-03-20",
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        "volume": 0
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "volume": 0
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 10.1915,
        "volume": 0
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        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 10.032,
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        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 9.9148,
        "volume": 0
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        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 9.9316,
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        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "date": "2026-07-31",
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        "volume": 0
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        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 9.7748,
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    ],
    "sharemaestro_context": {
      "trend": 10.342967,
      "fair_value": 10.184355,
      "market_activity": -21.607714,
      "market_dynamics": -0.499281,
      "relative_strength": -13.903162
    },
    "historical_outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 0,
        "median_return": null,
        "directional_follow_through": null,
        "regime_survival": null,
        "conditional_difference": null,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
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        "directional_follow_through": null,
        "regime_survival": null,
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        "sufficient": false
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        "directional_follow_through": null,
        "regime_survival": null,
        "conditional_difference": null,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "directional_follow_through": null,
        "regime_survival": null,
        "conditional_difference": null,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "regime_history": [
      {
        "direction": "positive",
        "start": "2026-07-17",
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "tenure": "Brief",
        "return": -0.019332
      },
      {
        "direction": "negative",
        "start": "2026-08-07",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Brief",
        "return": 0.0
      }
    ]
  }
}