{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "cad36049-6e93-42ce-8cb7-4b7a55a88c53",
    "symbol": "KDEF",
    "name": "PLUS KOREA DEFENSE INDUSTRY INDEX ETF",
    "exchange": "NYSEARCA",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "The SM framework classifies the established weekly price path as the Core Trend. Faster and slower Trend views and Sharemaestro context describe that state but do not alter its direction.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "latest_close": 43.12,
    "direction": "positive",
    "state": "Fresh positive regime",
    "is_fresh": true,
    "is_near_boundary": false,
    "direction_boundary": 38.599088,
    "boundary_margin": 0.117125,
    "trend_agreement": "Divided",
    "persistence": "Fresh",
    "direction_turnover": "High",
    "annualized_volatility": 0.652516,
    "volatility_stability": 1.5018,
    "risk_context": 0.1533,
    "current_regime": {
      "move": 0.0,
      "interruption": 0.0,
      "interruption_label": "Deepest pullback inside regime"
    },
    "research_priority": 30.77,
    "interpretation": {
      "label": "Fresh positive regime",
      "headline": "The Core Trend has just turned positive",
      "body": "This is a new regime change, not a forecast. The faster and slower Trend views show whether the move is becoming broadly established.",
      "age_context": "The current Core Trend is newly established.",
      "boundary_context": "The latest close is 11.7% above the decision boundary.",
      "stability_context": "Recent Core Trend turnover is high."
    },
    "chart_path": [
      {
        "date": "2026-02-06",
        "close": 54.785753,
        "direction_boundary": 20.355545,
        "core_momentum": 1.691441,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.404436
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-02-13",
        "close": 56.187479,
        "direction_boundary": 23.426179,
        "core_momentum": 1.398491,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.403687
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-02-20",
        "close": 59.474624,
        "direction_boundary": 24.886591,
        "core_momentum": 1.389826,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.407903
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-02-27",
        "close": 60.096516,
        "direction_boundary": 23.021391,
        "core_momentum": 1.610464,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.407371
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-06",
        "close": 61.468628,
        "direction_boundary": 26.794741,
        "core_momentum": 1.294056,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.402736
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-13",
        "close": 57.78663,
        "direction_boundary": 26.400009,
        "core_momentum": 1.188887,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.408166
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-20",
        "close": 51.923074,
        "direction_boundary": 25.093637,
        "core_momentum": 1.069173,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.438091
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-27",
        "close": 52.64368,
        "direction_boundary": 23.072988,
        "core_momentum": 1.281615,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.434884
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-03",
        "close": 57.095503,
        "direction_boundary": 23.364337,
        "core_momentum": 1.443703,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.44671
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-10",
        "close": 58.997097,
        "direction_boundary": 25.93949,
        "core_momentum": 1.274412,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.431169
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
        "close": 61.736186,
        "direction_boundary": 27.414751,
        "core_momentum": 1.251933,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.429405
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "close": 63.084413,
        "direction_boundary": 28.138707,
        "core_momentum": 1.241909,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.418194
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 64.536322,
        "direction_boundary": 28.820559,
        "core_momentum": 1.239246,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.418267
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 59.532333,
        "direction_boundary": 30.82664,
        "core_momentum": 0.931198,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.381702
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 52.827793,
        "direction_boundary": 30.272136,
        "core_momentum": 0.745096,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.75,
        "volatility": 0.424222
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 53.05,
        "direction_boundary": 30.892428,
        "core_momentum": 0.717249,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.75,
        "volatility": 0.407445
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 50.0,
        "direction_boundary": 31.522119,
        "core_momentum": 0.586188,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.75,
        "volatility": 0.41948
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 42.01,
        "direction_boundary": 34.745758,
        "core_momentum": 0.209068,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.5,
        "volatility": 0.488695
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 47.625,
        "direction_boundary": 38.439316,
        "core_momentum": 0.238966,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.75,
        "volatility": 0.512927
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 48.28,
        "direction_boundary": 39.698697,
        "core_momentum": 0.216161,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.75,
        "volatility": 0.512888
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 38.95,
        "direction_boundary": 39.048236,
        "core_momentum": -0.002516,
        "direction": "negative",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.596256
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 42.75,
        "direction_boundary": 37.405496,
        "core_momentum": 0.14288,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.25,
        "volatility": 0.60517
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 40.48,
        "direction_boundary": 37.358974,
        "core_momentum": 0.083542,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.25,
        "volatility": 0.565109
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 37.93,
        "direction_boundary": 38.64608,
        "core_momentum": -0.018529,
        "direction": "negative",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.566334
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 39.67,
        "direction_boundary": 39.51073,
        "core_momentum": 0.004031,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.25,
        "volatility": 0.57005
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 35.515,
        "direction_boundary": 38.937429,
        "core_momentum": -0.087896,
        "direction": "negative",
        "trend_agreement": 1.0,
        "volatility": 0.583666
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 43.12,
        "direction_boundary": 38.599088,
        "core_momentum": 0.117125,
        "direction": "positive",
        "trend_agreement": 0.5,
        "volatility": 0.652516
      }
    ],
    "price_history": [
      {
        "date": "2025-02-07",
        "close": 20.355545,
        "volume": 12931
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-02-14",
        "close": 23.426179,
        "volume": 45266
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-02-21",
        "close": 24.886591,
        "volume": 69214
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-02-28",
        "close": 23.021391,
        "volume": 51309
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-03-07",
        "close": 26.794741,
        "volume": 296662
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-03-14",
        "close": 26.400009,
        "volume": 143893
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-03-21",
        "close": 25.093637,
        "volume": 322394
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-03-28",
        "close": 23.072988,
        "volume": 138269
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-04-04",
        "close": 23.364337,
        "volume": 91997
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-04-11",
        "close": 25.93949,
        "volume": 88958
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-04-18",
        "close": 27.414751,
        "volume": 106025
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-04-25",
        "close": 28.138707,
        "volume": 81784
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-05-02",
        "close": 28.820559,
        "volume": 54839
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-05-09",
        "close": 30.82664,
        "volume": 90193
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-05-16",
        "close": 30.272136,
        "volume": 81263
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-05-23",
        "close": 30.892428,
        "volume": 78508
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-05-30",
        "close": 31.522119,
        "volume": 67239
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-06-06",
        "close": 34.745758,
        "volume": 123307
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-06-13",
        "close": 38.439316,
        "volume": 251588
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-06-20",
        "close": 39.698697,
        "volume": 141838
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-06-27",
        "close": 39.048236,
        "volume": 237447
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-07-04",
        "close": 37.405496,
        "volume": 105936
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-07-11",
        "close": 37.358974,
        "volume": 474667
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-07-18",
        "close": 38.64608,
        "volume": 235806
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-07-25",
        "close": 39.51073,
        "volume": 179236
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-08-01",
        "close": 38.937429,
        "volume": 115341
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-08-08",
        "close": 38.599088,
        "volume": 136366
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-08-15",
        "close": 38.345332,
        "volume": 106913
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-08-22",
        "close": 38.937429,
        "volume": 203345
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-08-29",
        "close": 40.187412,
        "volume": 99185
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-09-05",
        "close": 42.621589,
        "volume": 114928
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-09-12",
        "close": 45.619668,
        "volume": 174309
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-09-19",
        "close": 46.644089,
        "volume": 176346
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-09-26",
        "close": 45.112156,
        "volume": 171188
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-10-03",
        "close": 46.202366,
        "volume": 169129
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-10-10",
        "close": 42.84715,
        "volume": 165052
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-10-17",
        "close": 41.653557,
        "volume": 177121
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-10-24",
        "close": 45.271928,
        "volume": 210994
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-10-31",
        "close": 45.506887,
        "volume": 419560
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-11-07",
        "close": 39.585917,
        "volume": 248121
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-11-14",
        "close": 40.864094,
        "volume": 460480
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-11-21",
        "close": 38.006991,
        "volume": 273902
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-11-28",
        "close": 38.223154,
        "volume": 221829
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-12-05",
        "close": 39.755087,
        "volume": 180886
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-12-12",
        "close": 42.03889,
        "volume": 123112
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-12-19",
        "close": 41.850923,
        "volume": 134761
      },
      {
        "date": "2025-12-26",
        "close": 42.640386,
        "volume": 104717
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-01-02",
        "close": 45.240199,
        "volume": 210172
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-01-09",
        "close": 52.791749,
        "volume": 713616
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-01-16",
        "close": 54.60807,
        "volume": 678728
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-01-23",
        "close": 55.851854,
        "volume": 615019
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-01-30",
        "close": 56.898213,
        "volume": 456205
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-02-06",
        "close": 54.785753,
        "volume": 795557
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-02-13",
        "close": 56.187479,
        "volume": 378313
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-02-20",
        "close": 59.474624,
        "volume": 311708
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-02-27",
        "close": 60.096516,
        "volume": 525555
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-06",
        "close": 61.468628,
        "volume": 1707293
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-13",
        "close": 57.78663,
        "volume": 751582
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-20",
        "close": 51.923074,
        "volume": 788341
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-27",
        "close": 52.64368,
        "volume": 544434
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-03",
        "close": 57.095503,
        "volume": 754876
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-10",
        "close": 58.997097,
        "volume": 899492
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
        "close": 61.736186,
        "volume": 759938
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "close": 63.084413,
        "volume": 659892
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 64.536322,
        "volume": 907107
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 59.532333,
        "volume": 1077476
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 52.827793,
        "volume": 657443
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 53.05,
        "volume": 765524
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 50.0,
        "volume": 595317
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 42.01,
        "volume": 838852
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 47.625,
        "volume": 966002
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 48.28,
        "volume": 292906
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 38.95,
        "volume": 584880
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 42.75,
        "volume": 339094
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 40.48,
        "volume": 291311
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 37.93,
        "volume": 299341
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 39.67,
        "volume": 235798
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 35.515,
        "volume": 572818
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 43.12,
        "volume": 265258
      }
    ],
    "sharemaestro_context": {
      "trend": 51.963806,
      "fair_value": 42.1708,
      "market_activity": -20.015906,
      "market_dynamics": -1.50644,
      "relative_strength": -20.113513
    },
    "historical_outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": 0.017615,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "regime_survival": 1.0,
        "conditional_difference": 0.10753,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 0,
        "median_return": null,
        "directional_follow_through": null,
        "regime_survival": null,
        "conditional_difference": null,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Longer term",
        "sample_count": 0,
        "median_return": null,
        "directional_follow_through": null,
        "regime_survival": null,
        "conditional_difference": null,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 0,
        "median_return": null,
        "directional_follow_through": null,
        "regime_survival": null,
        "conditional_difference": null,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "regime_history": [
      {
        "direction": "positive",
        "start": "2026-02-06",
        "end": "2026-06-19",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.118749
      },
      {
        "direction": "negative",
        "start": "2026-06-26",
        "end": "2026-06-26",
        "tenure": "Brief",
        "return": 0.0
      },
      {
        "direction": "positive",
        "start": "2026-07-03",
        "end": "2026-07-10",
        "tenure": "Brief",
        "return": -0.053099
      },
      {
        "direction": "negative",
        "start": "2026-07-17",
        "end": "2026-07-17",
        "tenure": "Brief",
        "return": 0.0
      },
      {
        "direction": "positive",
        "start": "2026-07-24",
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "tenure": "Brief",
        "return": 0.0
      },
      {
        "direction": "negative",
        "start": "2026-07-31",
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "tenure": "Brief",
        "return": 0.0
      },
      {
        "direction": "positive",
        "start": "2026-08-07",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Brief",
        "return": 0.0
      }
    ]
  }
}