AAPY – Kurv Yield Premium Strategy Apple ETF (ETF-US) | 2-wk Markov

How the Markov model works here

A Markov Chain simplifies weekly price action into states—Down, Neutral, Up—and learns the probability of moving from one to the next. It’s “memoryless”: the next step depends on the current state, not distant history.

We present: Prob. Up Next Week (one-week transition), Prob. Up ≤ k (at least one Up in the next k weeks), Expected Run (typical state duration), and Reward Stats (average weekly returns by state/transition).

Higher Up probabilities / longer Up runs = constructive. Persistent negative rewards or Down bias = caution. Educational only – not financial advice.

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Markov Results

k = 2 Reset

Prob. Up Next Week

0.00

Neutral

Prob. Up ≤ k

0.00

At least one Up within k weeks

Expected Up Run (wks)

0.0

Typical

Down-state Reward (%/wk)

0.00

Benign

P20 / P80 (weekly)

-0.44 / 0.37 Range

Reward (Up %/wk)

Positive

Reward (Neutral %/wk)

Baseline

Expected Down Run (wks)

Risk

Lookahead Horizon (k weeks)

2

Move the slider to see probabilities within 1–8 weeks.

AAPY - Kurv Yield Premium Strategy Apple ETF ETF-US

Metric	Value
Current State	Up
Prob. Up Next Week	0.722
Prob. Up ≤ 2	0.547
Expected Run (Current)	3.6
Expected Run (Up)	3.6
P20 / P80 Bands	-0.44 / 0.372

Quick Read

Prob. Up Next Week

0.722

Prob. Up ≤ k

0.547

Expected Run (Current)

3.600

Expected Run (Up)

3.600

Avg Return in Up (wk)

0.009

Avg Return in Neutral

0.000

Avg Return in Down

-0.006

Plain-English Interpretation

Current regime: Up.

Short-term odds favour an Up move soon. When Up, this name tends to trend for multiple weeks - momentum can persist. If/when it flips Up, rallies often carry for several weeks. Average weekly return while Up is positive - constructive when the regime turns. Down regime carries negative drift - avoid knife-catching. Typical weekly range sits between -0.440 and 0.372 (20th–80th pct).

Reward Stats (avg % return)

State	Avg Return	Samples
0	-0.006	16
1	0.000	46
2	0.009	15

Transition	Avg Return	Samples
0->0	-0.005	14
0->1	-0.010	2
1->0	-0.030	1
1->1	0.000	41
1->2	0.011	4
2->1	-0.002	3
2->2	0.011	12

Reading the metrics

Prob. Up Next Week — one-step transition. Higher values are constructive.
Prob. Up ≤ k — chance of at least one Up in the next k weeks.
Expected Run — typical duration of current state; longer Up runs support trends.
P20 / P80 — typical weekly range for risk sizing.
Reward Stats — average weekly returns by state/transition; negatives flag caution.

Legend

Positive Negative Neutral k = weeks ahead Probabilities Ranges (P20/P80)

Accents appear where metrics indicate strength or risk.