JPEF – JPMorgan Equity Focus ETF (ETF-US) | 2-wk Markov

How the Markov model works here

A Markov Chain simplifies weekly price action into states—Down, Neutral, Up—and learns the probability of moving from one to the next. It’s “memoryless”: the next step depends on the current state, not distant history.

We present: Prob. Up Next Week (one-week transition), Prob. Up ≤ k (at least one Up in the next k weeks), Expected Run (typical state duration), and Reward Stats (average weekly returns by state/transition).

Higher Up probabilities / longer Up runs = constructive. Persistent negative rewards or Down bias = caution. Educational only – not financial advice.

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Markov Results

k = 2 Reset

Prob. Up Next Week

0.00

Neutral

Prob. Up ≤ k

0.00

At least one Up within k weeks

Expected Up Run (wks)

0.0

Typical

Down-state Reward (%/wk)

0.00

Benign

P20 / P80 (weekly)

-0.04 / 0.31 Range

Reward (Up %/wk)

Positive

Reward (Neutral %/wk)

Baseline

Expected Down Run (wks)

Risk

Lookahead Horizon (k weeks)

2

Move the slider to see probabilities within 1–8 weeks.

JPEF - JPMorgan Equity Focus ETF ETF-US

Metric	Value
Current State	Up
Prob. Up Next Week	0.85
Prob. Up ≤ 2	0.73
Expected Run (Current)	6.67
Expected Run (Up)	6.67
P20 / P80 Bands	-0.044 / 0.309

Quick Read

Prob. Up Next Week

0.850

Prob. Up ≤ k

0.730

Expected Run (Current)

6.670

Expected Run (Up)

6.670

Avg Return in Up (wk)

0.008

Avg Return in Neutral

0.002

Avg Return in Down

0.006

Plain-English Interpretation

Current regime: Up.

Short-term odds favour an Up move soon. When Up, this name tends to trend for multiple weeks - momentum can persist. If/when it flips Up, rallies often carry for several weeks. Average weekly return while Up is positive - constructive when the regime turns. Typical weekly range sits between -0.044 and 0.309 (20th–80th pct).

Reward Stats (avg % return)

State	Avg Return	Samples
0	0.006	18
1	0.002	54
2	0.008	17

Transition	Avg Return	Samples
0->0	0.006	16
0->1	0.004	2
1->0	-0.005	2
1->1	0.001	50
1->2	0.037	2
2->1	0.016	1
2->2	0.008	16

Reading the metrics

Prob. Up Next Week — one-step transition. Higher values are constructive.
Prob. Up ≤ k — chance of at least one Up in the next k weeks.
Expected Run — typical duration of current state; longer Up runs support trends.
P20 / P80 — typical weekly range for risk sizing.
Reward Stats — average weekly returns by state/transition; negatives flag caution.

Legend

Positive Negative Neutral k = weeks ahead Probabilities Ranges (P20/P80)

Accents appear where metrics indicate strength or risk.