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Ultrapar Participações S.A.

UGP NYSE
Market Report Console Signals Backtest Markov
Week Ending
Fri, 19 Sep 2025
Open
3.9700
Close
3.8900
High
3.9900
Low
3.8800
Trend
0.65720
Rating
★★★☆☆
Sharemaestro [Charts]
UGP weekly Smart Money chart, closing 2025-09-19.
UGP weekly Market Snapshot chart, closing 2025-09-19.
UGP weekly Market Cycle chart, closing 2025-09-19.
UGP weekly Market Demand chart, closing 2025-09-19.
UGP weekly Market Strength chart, closing 2025-09-19.
UGP weekly Activity chart, closing 2025-09-19.
UGP weekly Market Dynamics chart, closing 2025-09-19.
UGP weekly Market Threshold chart, closing 2025-09-19.

Weekly Report

Ultrapar Participações S.A. (UGP) Week Ending: Fri, 19 Sep 2025 ★★★☆☆
Weekly Report
Price
Weekly Close

Ultrapar Participações S.A. closed at 3.8900 (-2.02% WoW) . Data window ends Fri, 19 Sep 2025.

Price Window27.12% over 8w
Return Volatility4.68%
Volume TrendFalling
MA StackConstructive
Price vs MAsAbove
What stands out

How to read this — Price slope is upward, indicating persistent buying over the window. Elevated weekly volatility increases whipsaw risk. Volume trend diverges from price — watch for fatigue or rotation. Returns are positively correlated with volume — strength tends to arrive on higher activity. Constructive MA stack supports the up-drift; pullbacks may find support at the 8–13 week region. Price holds above key averages, indicating constructive participation.

What to watch

Up-slope supports buying interest; pullbacks may be contained if activity stays firm. Because liquidity isn’t confirming, prefer evidence of fresh demand before chasing moves.

Trend
Sharemaestro Trend Line

Gauge maps the trend signal to a 0–100 scale.

Gauge Reading65.7/100
DirectionRising
Accelerationaccelerating
Trend StateStrong Uptrend
What stands out

How to read this — High gauge and rising momentum — buyers in control.

What to watch

Bias remains higher; pullbacks could be buyable if participation holds.

Valuation Model Snapshot Fri, 19 Sep 2025
Target 2.96
Current3.89
RatingModerately Overvalued
Interpretation

Price is above fair value; upside may be capped without catalysts.

Conclusion

Neutral ★★★☆☆

Neutral setup. ★★★☆☆ confidence. Price window: 27. Trend: Strong Uptrend; gauge 65. In combination, liquidity diverges from price.

Strengths
  • High gauge with rising momentum (strong uptrend)
  • Momentum is bullish and rising
  • Price holds above 8w & 26w averages
  • Constructive moving-average stack
Watch-outs
  • Liquidity diverges from price
  • High return volatility raises whipsaw risk

Why: Price window 27.12% over 8w. Return volatility 4.68%. Volume trend falling. Liquidity divergence with price. Trend state strong uptrend. MA stack constructive. Momentum bullish and rising. Valuation limited upside without catalysts.

Price Window Endpoint return over the last N weeks using weekly closes: (Closelast − Closefirst)/Closefirst × 100.
Return Volatility Std-dev of weekly returns (%). Higher = choppier.
Volume Trend Slope of weekly volume across the window (rising / falling / flat).
Vs N-week High % distance of latest close from the highest close in the window.
Accumulation Weeks Weeks price rose on higher volume than the prior week.
Distribution Weeks Weeks price fell on higher volume than the prior week.
MA Stack Relative order of short/intermediate/long MAs. Short > long is constructive.
4–8 Crossover Latest cross of 4-week vs 8-week MA (bullish / bearish / none).
Price vs MAs Whether the close is above/below key averages (8w & 26w).
Baseline Deviation % distance from the market-cycle baseline (fair-value track).
Gauge Reading Smoothed trend signal mapped to 0–100.
Direction Slope sign of the gauge across the window (rising / falling).
Acceleration Change in the slope of the gauge (accelerating / decelerating).
Gauge Volatility Variability of the gauge (low / normal / high).
Zone Label Classification by level (Bullish / Neutral / Bearish).
Target Price (Flag) If flagged: Positive/Negative stance. Otherwise: numeric fair value.
Composite Score Overall model score (0–10).
Hybrid Efficiency Efficiency of growth × quality (0–10).
Rating Model’s verdict for the snapshot.
Weekly Close Sparkline of the last 52 weekly closing prices.
Trend Line Sparkline of the smoothed trend signal over the last 52 weeks.

Tip: Most metrics include a hover tooltip where they appear in the report.

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Week Ending: September 19, 2025