4519 - TYO
Weekly Report for Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.
Entity & Brand
?Signals Snapshot
8-week window
?
No signals in this window.
How to read this section
Left column describes the week the signal was generated (historical context).
Right column shows performance and posture since that signal to the present.
MFE
?
and MAE
?
quantify upside capture vs downside risk after the signal.
Price Overview
Tiles| Metric | Signal | Value | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price Window | Negative | -9.03% over 8w | Endpoint return across the selected window. | |
| Return Volatility | Positive | 2.16% | Std dev of weekly returns — low is steadier, high is whipsaw-prone. | |
| Volume Trend | Negative | Falling | Slope of weekly volume across the window. | |
| Vs 8w High | Negative | -9.24% | Distance to the prior-window high (latest week excluded). | |
| MA Stack | Negative | Weak | Short > Intermediate > Long is constructive; the reverse is weak. | |
| Price vs MAs | Negative | Below |
Trend Overview
| Metric | Signal | Value | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gauge Reading | Neutral | 28.9/100 | ||
| Direction | Negative | Falling | ||
| Acceleration | Positive | accelerating | ||
| Gauge Volatility | Neutral | High | ||
| Trend State | Negative | Downtrend Confirmed | ||
| Momentum Drawdown | Negative | 44.6 pts from 8w peak |
Trend State:
Downtrend Confirmed — gauge 28.9/100 — 8w slope -7.60; ST slope -4.83 pts/wk — drawdown 44.6 pts from peak — vol high
Bear control (sub-0.40)
Weekly Price Action
8 weeks| Week ending | Open | High | Low | Close | Change % | Volume (MA) Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, 8 Sep 2025 | 6657.00 | 6743.00 | 6630.00 | 6678.00 | 0.32% | |
| Mon, 1 Sep 2025 | 6520.00 | 6702.00 | 6498.00 | 6520.00 | 0.00% | |
| Mon, 25 Aug 2025 | 6266.00 | 6619.00 | 6002.00 | 6509.00 | 3.88% | |
| Mon, 18 Aug 2025 | 6288.00 | 6303.00 | 6221.00 | 6260.00 | -0.45% | |
| Mon, 11 Aug 2025 | 6100.00 | 6388.00 | 6089.00 | 6243.00 | 2.34% | |
| Mon, 4 Aug 2025 | 7300.00 | 7374.00 | 7229.00 | 7358.00 | 0.79% | |
| Mon, 28 Jul 2025 | 7340.00 | 7547.00 | 7079.00 | 7340.00 | 0.00% | |
| Mon, 21 Jul 2025 | 6920.00 | 7467.00 | 6781.00 | 7341.00 | 6.08% | — |
Price Narrative
| Stands Out | No highlights available. |
|---|---|
| What to Watch | No watch items available. |
Trend Narrative
| Stands Out | Trend focus for week ending Mon, 08 Sep 2025. Gauge: 28.9/100; slope -7.60 pts/wk; short-term -4.83 pts/wk; accelerating. Gauge volatility: high. Momentum drawdown from 8w peak: 44.6 pts. Bear control regained (sub-40). |
|---|---|
| What to Watch | How to read this — Bearish zone with falling momentum — sellers in control. Sub-0.40 print confirms downside control. |
All Price Analysis
Complete dump ofmonthly_analysis.series & monthly_analysis.diagnostics
| Series | |
|---|---|
| Close Price | Change Pct: -9.031467102574581, Slope: -134.17857142857142 |
| Change Percent | Vol: 2.163047618523457, Slope: -0.4028571428571428 |
| Volume | Slope: -529861.9047619047, Z Last: -0.8217519628720065 |
| Deviation From Baseline | Last: 0.25607, Z Last: -0.8655182854156772, Slope: -0.0546272619047619 |
| Diagnostics | |
| Volume Trend | falling |
| Close Vs Recent High Pct | -9.241641750475672 |
| Conv Div | convergence |
| Momentum Trend | weakening |
| Last Trend Label | Bearish |
| Close Vs Recent Low Pct | 6.967803940413263 |
| Ma Stack | bear |
| Cross 4 8 | none |
| Price Vs Ma | below |
| Baseline Deviation | 0.25607 |
| Baseline Dir | narrowing |
What does it mean?
- 8-week price move: -9.03%. Weekly return volatility: 2.16%. Close is 9.24% below the prior-window 8-week high. and 6.97% above the prior-window 8-week low. Volume trend: falling. Latest week’s volume is -0.82σ from its 8-week average. Price/volume correlation (returns vs volume): 0.62. Price/volume correlation (returns vs volume change): 0.89. 26-week move: -2.23%. 52-week move: -1.04%. Price sits 0.26% above its medium-term baseline, and the distance is narrowing. Moving-average stack is weak (short below intermediate below long).
- How to read this — Price slope is downward, indicating persistent supply pressure. Volume and price are moving in the same direction — a constructive confirmation. Returns are positively correlated with volume — strength tends to arrive on higher activity. Distance to baseline is narrowing — reverting closer to its fair-value track. Weak MA stack argues for caution; rallies can fail near the 8–13 week region. Price sits below key averages, keeping pressure on the tape.
- Down-slope argues for patience; rallies can fade sooner unless participation improves.
All Trend Analysis
Complete dump oftrend_analysis.series & trend_analysis.diagnostics
| Series | |
|---|---|
| Trend Pos | Avg: 50.639, Med: 45.052499999999995, Rng: (28.865000000000002, 73.483), Vol: 18.264051617863984, Slope: -7.599738095238096, Last: 28.865000000000002 |
| Diagnostics | |
| Last Pos | 28.865000000000002 |
| Vol Band | high |
| Acceleration Label | Accelerating |
| Last Label | Bearish |
| State Label | Downtrend Confirmed |
| Slope 8W | -7.599738095238096 |
| Slope Short | -4.825499999999999 |
| Accel Value | 0.15285714285714366 |
| Drawdown From Peak Pts | 44.618 |
| Time In Bull | 3 |
| Time In Bear | 3 |
| Time In Mid | 2 |
| High Breakdown Recent | False |
| Midline Failure Recent | False |
| Bear Control Recent | True |
| Recovery Mid Recent | False |
| Recovery Bull Recent | False |
| Acc Upticks | 0 |
| Acc Opportunities | 0 |
| Acc Rate | None |
| Acc Longest Streak | 0 |
| Dist Downticks | 0 |
| Dist Opportunities | 0 |
| Dist Rate | None |
| Dist Longest Streak | 0 |
| Low Regime Bias | Mixed/None |
| High Regime Bias | Mixed/None |
What does it mean?
- Trend focus for week ending Mon, 08 Sep 2025. Gauge: 28.9/100; slope -7.60 pts/wk; short-term -4.83 pts/wk; accelerating. Gauge volatility: high. Momentum drawdown from 8w peak: 44.6 pts. Bear control regained (sub-40).
- How to read this — Bearish zone with falling momentum — sellers in control. Sub-0.40 print confirms downside control.
- Bias remains lower; rallies are suspect unless gauge reclaims 0.50/0.60.
Final Conclusion
| Verdict | Negative |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★☆☆☆☆ |
| Summary | Price window: -9. Trend: Downtrend Confirmed; gauge 28. In combination, liquidity confirms the move. |
| Strengths |
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| Watch-outs |
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Disclaimer. This report is provided for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Markets involve risk, including possible loss of principal. Always perform your own research and consider consulting a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.