ARI - NYSE
Weekly Report for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.
Entity & Brand
?Signals Snapshot
8-week window
?
Threshold Breach (Sell)
Fri, 5 Sep 2025
Source:
market_threshold
Signal close
?:
10.98
At the signal (week of Fri, 5 Sep 2025)
- Week change: +0.55%
- Close sits at/above the short-term trend.
- Above the intermediate trend backdrop.
- Participation easing (volume trend falling).
- Since signal (perf): +3.92% over 2w; MFE +3.92% (0w), MAE -0.00% (2w).
Since the signal (to present)
MFE
?
MAE
?
Elapsed
2w
Current return
-3.92%
MFE
0.00%
(0w)
MAE
-3.92%
(2w)
ST: Below
MT: Above
Summary
At the threshold breach (sell) week
(Fri, 5 Sep 2025) you saw the bullet points above.
Since then,
price is
-3.92%
over 2 weeks.
Peak move [MFE]:
0.00%
(0w);
worst dip [MAE]:
-3.92%
(2w).
Current situation since SELL
Elapsed: 2w
Close then → now:
10.98 → 10.55
Δ:
-0.43
(-3.92%)
Now vs trend:
ST Below,
MT Above
Weekly snapshots
| Date | Close | % from Signal | ST | MT | Wk % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, 5 Sep 2025 | 10.98 | 0.00% | Above | Above | 0.55% |
| Fri, 12 Sep 2025 | 10.84 | -1.28% | Near | Above | -1.19% |
| Fri, 19 Sep 2025 | 10.55 | -3.92% | Below | Above | -1.31% |
How to read this section
Left column describes the week the signal was generated (historical context).
Right column shows performance and posture since that signal to the present.
MFE
?
and MAE
?
quantify upside capture vs downside risk after the signal.
Price Overview
Tiles| Metric | Signal | Value | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price Window | Positive | 7.87% over 8w | Endpoint return across the selected window. | |
| Return Volatility | Positive | 1.35% | Std dev of weekly returns — low is steadier, high is whipsaw-prone. | |
| Volume Trend | Negative | Falling | Slope of weekly volume across the window. | |
| Vs 8w High | Negative | -3.92% | Distance to the prior-window high (latest week excluded). | |
| MA Stack | Positive | Constructive | Short > Intermediate > Long is constructive; the reverse is weak. | |
| Price vs MAs | Positive | Above |
Trend Overview
| Metric | Signal | Value | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gauge Reading | Neutral | 75.7/100 | ||
| Direction | Positive | Rising | ||
| Trend State | Positive | Uptrend at Risk |
Trend State:
Uptrend at Risk — gauge 75.7/100 — 8w slope 0.30; ST slope -0.94 pts/wk
Weekly Price Action
8 weeks| Week ending | Open | High | Low | Close | Change % | Volume (MA) Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, 19 Sep 2025 | 10.69 | 10.73 | 10.53 | 10.55 | -1.31% | |
| Fri, 12 Sep 2025 | 10.97 | 11.02 | 10.78 | 10.84 | -1.19% | |
| Fri, 5 Sep 2025 | 10.92 | 11.04 | 10.91 | 10.98 | 0.55% | |
| Fri, 29 Aug 2025 | 10.48 | 10.61 | 10.44 | 10.59 | 1.05% | |
| Fri, 22 Aug 2025 | 10.13 | 10.45 | 10.13 | 10.45 | 3.16% | |
| Fri, 15 Aug 2025 | 10.13 | 10.15 | 10.04 | 10.06 | -0.69% | |
| Fri, 8 Aug 2025 | 9.98 | 10.09 | 9.93 | 10.02 | 0.40% | |
| Fri, 1 Aug 2025 | 9.74 | 9.79 | 9.60 | 9.78 | 0.41% | — |
Price Narrative
| Stands Out | No highlights available. |
|---|---|
| What to Watch | No watch items available. |
Trend Narrative
| Stands Out | Trend focus for week ending Fri, 19 Sep 2025. Gauge: 75.7/100; slope 0.30 pts/wk; short-term -0.94 pts/wk; steady. Gauge volatility: normal. Momentum drawdown from 8w peak: 3.7 pts. |
|---|---|
| What to Watch | How to read this — Gauge is elevated but momentum is rolling over; topping risk is rising. |
All Price Analysis
Complete dump ofmonthly_analysis.series & monthly_analysis.diagnostics
| Series | |
|---|---|
| Close Price | Change Pct: 7.873210633946845, Slope: 0.14750000000000013 |
| Change Percent | Vol: 1.35180203802184, Slope: -0.2188095238095238 |
| Volume | Slope: -32246.428571428572, Z Last: 0.3864092390949044 |
| Deviation From Baseline | Last: 0.20318, Z Last: 0.1245131047259889, Slope: 0.014207857142857142 |
| Diagnostics | |
| Volume Trend | falling |
| Close Vs Recent High Pct | -3.9162112932604707 |
| Conv Div | divergence |
| Momentum Trend | improving |
| Last Trend Label | Bullish |
| Close Vs Recent Low Pct | 7.873210633946845 |
| Ma Stack | bull |
| Cross 4 8 | none |
| Price Vs Ma | above |
| Baseline Deviation | 0.20318 |
| Baseline Dir | widening |
What does it mean?
- 8-week price move: 7.87%. Weekly return volatility: 1.35%. Close is 3.92% below the prior-window 8-week high. and 7.87% above the prior-window 8-week low. Volume trend: falling. Latest week’s volume is 0.39σ from its 8-week average. Price/volume correlation (returns vs volume): 0.71. Price/volume correlation (returns vs volume change): 0.28. 26-week move: 20.28%. 52-week move: 31.74%. Price sits 0.20% above its medium-term baseline, and the distance is widening. Moving-average stack is constructive (short above intermediate above long).
- How to read this — Price slope is upward, indicating persistent buying over the window. Low weekly volatility favours steadier follow-through. Volume trend diverges from price — watch for fatigue or rotation. Returns are positively correlated with volume — strength tends to arrive on higher activity. Constructive MA stack supports the up-drift; pullbacks may find support at the 8–13 week region. Price holds above key averages, indicating constructive participation.
- Up-slope supports buying interest; pullbacks may be contained if activity stays firm. Because liquidity isn’t confirming, prefer evidence of fresh demand before chasing moves.
All Trend Analysis
Complete dump oftrend_analysis.series & trend_analysis.diagnostics
| Series | |
|---|---|
| Trend Pos | Avg: 74.505875, Med: 73.20599999999999, Rng: (71.677, 79.372), Vol: 2.921104005230728, Slope: 0.2966547619047617, Last: 75.721 |
| Diagnostics | |
| Last Pos | 75.721 |
| Vol Band | normal |
| Acceleration Label | Steady |
| Last Label | Bullish |
| State Label | Uptrend at Risk |
| Slope 8W | 0.2966547619047617 |
| Slope Short | -0.9369999999999991 |
| Accel Value | -0.03224999999999967 |
| Drawdown From Peak Pts | 3.6509999999999962 |
| Time In Bull | 8 |
| Time In Bear | 0 |
| Time In Mid | 0 |
| High Breakdown Recent | False |
| Midline Failure Recent | False |
| Bear Control Recent | False |
| Recovery Mid Recent | False |
| Recovery Bull Recent | False |
| Acc Upticks | 0 |
| Acc Opportunities | 0 |
| Acc Rate | None |
| Acc Longest Streak | 0 |
| Dist Downticks | 0 |
| Dist Opportunities | 0 |
| Dist Rate | None |
| Dist Longest Streak | 0 |
| Low Regime Bias | Mixed/None |
| High Regime Bias | Mixed/None |
What does it mean?
- Trend focus for week ending Fri, 19 Sep 2025. Gauge: 75.7/100; slope 0.30 pts/wk; short-term -0.94 pts/wk; steady. Gauge volatility: normal. Momentum drawdown from 8w peak: 3.7 pts.
- How to read this — Gauge is elevated but momentum is rolling over; topping risk is rising.
- Stay alert: protect gains or seek confirmation before adding risk.
Final Conclusion
| Verdict | Neutral |
|---|---|
| Stars | ★★★☆☆ |
| Summary | Price window: 7. Trend: Uptrend at Risk; gauge 75. In combination, liquidity diverges from price. |
| Strengths |
|
| Watch-outs |
|
Disclaimer. This report is provided for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Markets involve risk, including possible loss of principal. Always perform your own research and consider consulting a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.