ALUP11 - BVMF
Weekly Report for Alupar Investimento S.A.
Entity & Brand
?Signals Snapshot
8-week window
Threshold Breach (Sell)
Fri, 19 Sep 2025
Source:
market_cycle
Signal close:
31.2
At the signal (week of Fri, 19 Sep 2025)
- Week change: +2.26%
- Closed near the weekly high (strong finish).
- Participation easing (volume trend falling).
- Since signal (perf): -1.31% over 1w; MFE -0.00% (1w), MAE -1.31% (0w).
Since the signal (to present)
Elapsed
1w
Current return
1.31%
MFE
1.31%
(1w)
MAE
0.00%
ST: —
MT: —
Summary
At the threshold breach (sell) week (Fri, 19 Sep 2025) you saw the bullet points above.
Since then,
price is
1.31%
over 1 weeks.
Peak move [MFE]:
1.31%
(1w);
worst dip [MAE]:
0.00%
.
Price Overview
Tiles| Metric | Signal | Value | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price Window | Positive | 8.55% over 8w | Endpoint return across the selected window. | |
| Return Volatility | Positive | 1.47% | Std dev of weekly returns — low is steadier, high is whipsaw-prone. | |
| Volume Trend | Negative | Falling | Slope of weekly volume across the window. | |
| Vs 8w High | Positive | 1.31% | Distance to the prior-window high (latest week excluded). | |
| MA Stack | Positive | Constructive | Short > Intermediate > Long is constructive; the reverse is weak. | |
| Price vs MAs | Positive | Above |
Trend Overview
| Metric | Signal | Value | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gauge Reading | Neutral | 67.2/100 | ||
| Direction | Negative | Falling | ||
| Acceleration | Positive | accelerating | ||
| Gauge Volatility | Neutral | Low | ||
| Trend State | Neutral | Uptrend at Risk |
Trend State:
Uptrend at Risk — gauge 67.2/100 — 8w slope -0.92; ST slope -0.66 pts/wk — vol low
Weekly Price Action
8 weeks| Week ending | Open | High | Low | Close | Change % | Volume (MA) Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, 26 Sep 2025 | 31.55 | 31.85 | 31.49 | 31.61 | 0.19% | |
| Fri, 19 Sep 2025 | 30.51 | 31.20 | 30.51 | 31.20 | 2.26% | |
| Fri, 12 Sep 2025 | 30.71 | 30.97 | 30.26 | 30.51 | -0.65% | |
| Fri, 5 Sep 2025 | 30.06 | 30.82 | 30.01 | 30.71 | 2.16% | |
| Fri, 29 Aug 2025 | 29.81 | 30.17 | 29.34 | 29.98 | 0.57% | |
| Fri, 22 Aug 2025 | 28.91 | 30.16 | 28.90 | 29.97 | 3.67% | |
| Fri, 15 Aug 2025 | 28.94 | 29.18 | 28.43 | 28.92 | -0.07% | |
| Fri, 8 Aug 2025 | 29.29 | 29.47 | 28.76 | 29.12 | -0.58% | — |
Price Narrative
| Stands Out | No highlights available. |
|---|---|
| What to Watch | No watch items available. |
Trend Narrative
| Stands Out | Trend focus for week ending Fri, 26 Sep 2025. Gauge: 67.2/100; slope -0.92 pts/wk; short-term -0.66 pts/wk; accelerating. Gauge volatility: low. Momentum drawdown from 8w peak: 6.3 pts. |
|---|---|
| What to Watch | How to read this — Gauge is elevated but momentum is rolling over; topping risk is rising. |
Market Strength (Mansfield RS)
| Status | Underperforming |
|---|---|
| Level | -0.90% |
| Regime | Negative |
All Price Analysis
Complete dump ofmonthly_analysis.series & monthly_analysis.diagnostics
| Series | |
|---|---|
| Close Price | Change Pct: 8.55082417582417, Slope: 0.37110714285714286 |
| Change Percent | Vol: 1.4680594121151909, Slope: 0.0675 |
| Volume | Slope: -1009666.6666666666, Z Last: -1.3332230853369174 |
| Deviation From Baseline | Last: 0.21772, Z Last: 1.4831513276491262, Slope: 0.014066785714285716 |
| Diagnostics | |
| Volume Trend | falling |
| Close Vs Recent High Pct | 1.3141025641025645 |
| Conv Div | divergence |
| Momentum Trend | weakening |
| Last Trend Label | Bullish |
| Close Vs Recent Low Pct | 9.296230472937 |
| Ma Stack | bull |
| Cross 4 8 | none |
| Price Vs Ma | above |
| Baseline Deviation | 0.21772 |
| Baseline Dir | widening |
What does it mean?
- 8-week price move: 8.55%. Weekly return volatility: 1.47%. Close is 1.31% above the prior-window 8-week high. and 9.30% above the prior-window 8-week low. Volume trend: falling. Latest week’s volume is -1.33σ from its 8-week average. Price/volume correlation (returns vs volume): -0.07. Price/volume correlation (returns vs volume change): 0.50. 26-week move: 12.70%. 52-week move: 14.92%. Price sits 0.22% above its medium-term baseline, and the distance is widening. Moving-average stack is constructive (short above intermediate above long).
- How to read this — Price slope is upward, indicating persistent buying over the window. Low weekly volatility favours steadier follow-through. Volume trend diverges from price — watch for fatigue or rotation. Constructive MA stack supports the up-drift; pullbacks may find support at the 8–13 week region. Price holds above key averages, indicating constructive participation.
- Up-slope supports buying interest; pullbacks may be contained if activity stays firm. Because liquidity isn’t confirming, prefer evidence of fresh demand before chasing moves.
Final Conclusion
| Verdict | Negative |
|---|---|
| Stars | 1.5 |
| Market Strength | Underperforming |
| Summary | Price window: 8. Trend: Uptrend at Risk; gauge 67. In combination, liquidity diverges from price. |
| Strengths |
|
| Watch-outs |
|
Disclaimer. This report is provided for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Markets involve risk, including possible loss of principal. Always perform your own research and consider consulting a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.