Markov Analyzer

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Lookahead Horizon (k weeks)

Move the slider to see probabilities within 1–8 weeks.

AIA - Auckland International Airport Limited ASX

Metric	Value
Current State	Down
Prob. Up Next Week	0.032
Prob. Up ≤ 2	0.063
Expected Run (Current)	3.88
Expected Run (Up)	4.0
P20 / P80 Bands	-0.402 / 0.485

Quick Read

Prob. Up Next Week

0.032

Prob. Up ≤ k

0.063

Expected Run (Current)

3.880

Expected Run (Up)

4.000

Avg Return in Up (wk)

0.004

Avg Return in Neutral

0.001

Avg Return in Down

-0.001

Plain-English Interpretation

Current regime: Down.

Short-term odds do not favour an Up move yet. Downtrends here can linger; patience is key if waiting for a turn. If/when it flips Up, rallies often carry for several weeks. Typical weekly range sits between -0.402 and 0.485 (20th–80th pct).

Reward Stats (avg % return)

State	Avg Return	Samples
0	-0.001	28
1	0.001	86
2	0.004	29

Transition	Avg Return	Samples
0->0	0.000	22
0->1	-0.004	6
1->0	-0.014	7
1->1	0.000	74
1->2	0.025	5
2->1	0.000	6
2->2	0.005	23

How to Read These Results

This screener uses a Markov chain model built from past price movements between “Down”, “Neutral”, and “Up” states.

Prob. Up Next Week: Chance that the next weekly move is Up. >0.6 is strong; <0.4 is weak.
Prob. Up ≤ k: Chance of seeing at least one Up week within the next k weeks.
Expected Run (Current / Up): How many weeks a regime tends to last. Longer Up runs are constructive.
P20 / P80: Typical weekly range (20th–80th percentile). Position size accordingly.
Reward Stats: Average weekly returns by state/transition. Positives are favourable; negatives suggest caution.