Markov Analyzer

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Lookahead Horizon (k weeks)

Move the slider to see probabilities within 1–8 weeks.

ATH - Athabasca Oil Corporation TSX

Metric	Value
Current State	Up
Prob. Up Next Week	0.839
Prob. Up ≤ 2	0.712
Expected Run (Current)	6.2
Expected Run (Up)	6.2
P20 / P80 Bands	-0.214 / 0.337

Quick Read

Prob. Up Next Week

0.839

Prob. Up ≤ k

0.712

Expected Run (Current)

6.200

Expected Run (Up)

6.200

Avg Return in Up (wk)

0.014

Avg Return in Neutral

0.005

Avg Return in Down

0.011

Plain-English Interpretation

Current regime: Up.

Short-term odds favour an Up move soon. When Up, this name tends to trend for multiple weeks - momentum can persist. If/when it flips Up, rallies often carry for several weeks. Average weekly return while Up is positive - constructive when the regime turns. Typical weekly range sits between -0.214 and 0.337 (20th–80th pct).

Reward Stats (avg % return)

State	Avg Return	Samples
0	0.011	29
1	0.005	86
2	0.014	28

Transition	Avg Return	Samples
0->0	0.017	24
0->1	-0.016	5
1->0	-0.016	4
1->1	0.004	78
1->2	0.047	4
2->1	0.045	3
2->2	0.010	25

How to Read These Results

This screener uses a Markov chain model built from past price movements between “Down”, “Neutral”, and “Up” states.

Prob. Up Next Week: Chance that the next weekly move is Up. >0.6 is strong; <0.4 is weak.
Prob. Up ≤ k: Chance of seeing at least one Up week within the next k weeks.
Expected Run (Current / Up): How many weeks a regime tends to last. Longer Up runs are constructive.
P20 / P80: Typical weekly range (20th–80th percentile). Position size accordingly.
Reward Stats: Average weekly returns by state/transition. Positives are favourable; negatives suggest caution.