Markov Analyzer

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Lookahead Horizon (k weeks)

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APM - Andean Precious Metals Corp. TSX

Metric	Value
Current State	Up
Prob. Up Next Week	0.6
Prob. Up ≤ 2	0.427
Expected Run (Current)	2.5
Expected Run (Up)	2.5
P20 / P80 Bands	0.159 / 0.567

Quick Read

Prob. Up Next Week

0.600

Prob. Up ≤ k

0.427

Expected Run (Current)

2.500

Expected Run (Up)

2.500

Avg Return in Up (wk)

0.141

Avg Return in Neutral

0.040

Avg Return in Down

0.009

Plain-English Interpretation

Current regime: Up.

Short-term odds favour an Up move soon. Current regime typically lasts a couple of weeks. Average weekly return while Up is positive - constructive when the regime turns. Typical weekly range sits between 0.159 and 0.567 (20th–80th pct).

Reward Stats (avg % return)

State	Avg Return	Samples
0	0.009	3
1	0.040	9
2	0.141	2

Transition	Avg Return	Samples
0->0	0.019	2
0->1	-0.012	1
1->1	0.035	8
1->2	0.077	1
2->2	0.141	2

How to Read These Results

This screener uses a Markov chain model built from past price movements between “Down”, “Neutral”, and “Up” states.

Prob. Up Next Week: Chance that the next weekly move is Up. >0.6 is strong; <0.4 is weak.
Prob. Up ≤ k: Chance of seeing at least one Up week within the next k weeks.
Expected Run (Current / Up): How many weeks a regime tends to last. Longer Up runs are constructive.
P20 / P80: Typical weekly range (20th–80th percentile). Position size accordingly.
Reward Stats: Average weekly returns by state/transition. Positives are favourable; negatives suggest caution.