Markov Analyzer

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Lookahead Horizon (k weeks)

Move the slider to see probabilities within 1–8 weeks.

BTO - B2Gold Corp. TSX

Metric	Value
Current State	Up
Prob. Up Next Week	0.742
Prob. Up ≤ 2	0.572
Expected Run (Current)	3.88
Expected Run (Up)	3.88
P20 / P80 Bands	-0.401 / 0.5

Quick Read

Prob. Up Next Week

0.742

Prob. Up ≤ k

0.572

Expected Run (Current)

3.880

Expected Run (Up)

3.880

Avg Return in Up (wk)

0.007

Avg Return in Neutral

0.006

Avg Return in Down

-0.008

Plain-English Interpretation

Current regime: Up.

Short-term odds favour an Up move soon. When Up, this name tends to trend for multiple weeks - momentum can persist. If/when it flips Up, rallies often carry for several weeks. Average weekly return while Up is positive - constructive when the regime turns. Down regime carries negative drift - avoid knife-catching. Typical weekly range sits between -0.401 and 0.500 (20th–80th pct).

Reward Stats (avg % return)

State	Avg Return	Samples
0	-0.008	29
1	0.006	86
2	0.007	28

Transition	Avg Return	Samples
0->0	-0.011	26
0->1	0.024	3
1->0	-0.031	3
1->1	0.006	76
1->2	0.027	7
2->1	-0.021	6
2->2	0.014	22

How to Read These Results

This screener uses a Markov chain model built from past price movements between “Down”, “Neutral”, and “Up” states.

Prob. Up Next Week: Chance that the next weekly move is Up. >0.6 is strong; <0.4 is weak.
Prob. Up ≤ k: Chance of seeing at least one Up week within the next k weeks.
Expected Run (Current / Up): How many weeks a regime tends to last. Longer Up runs are constructive.
P20 / P80: Typical weekly range (20th–80th percentile). Position size accordingly.
Reward Stats: Average weekly returns by state/transition. Positives are favourable; negatives suggest caution.