Markov Analyzer

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Lookahead Horizon (k weeks)

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DHARAN - Dharan Infra-EPC Limited NSE

Metric	Value
Current State	Down
Prob. Up Next Week	0.25
Prob. Up ≤ 2	0.218
Expected Run (Current)	1.33
Expected Run (Up)	1.67
P20 / P80 Bands	-0.126 / 0.398

Quick Read

Prob. Up Next Week

0.250

Prob. Up ≤ k

0.218

Expected Run (Current)

1.330

Expected Run (Up)

1.670

Avg Return in Up (wk)

-0.022

Avg Return in Neutral

0.000

Avg Return in Down

0.024

Plain-English Interpretation

Current regime: Down.

Short-term odds do not favour an Up move yet. Current regime is usually short-lived. Even in Up, returns have been soft recently - use extra confirmation. Typical weekly range sits between -0.126 and 0.398 (20th–80th pct).

Reward Stats (avg % return)

State	Avg Return	Samples
0	0.024	1
1	0.000	6
2	-0.022	2

Transition	Avg Return	Samples
0->1	0.024	1
1->0	-0.042	2
1->1	0.020	4
2->1	-0.022	1
2->2	-0.022	1

How to Read These Results

This screener uses a Markov chain model built from past price movements between “Down”, “Neutral”, and “Up” states.

Prob. Up Next Week: Chance that the next weekly move is Up. >0.6 is strong; <0.4 is weak.
Prob. Up ≤ k: Chance of seeing at least one Up week within the next k weeks.
Expected Run (Current / Up): How many weeks a regime tends to last. Longer Up runs are constructive.
P20 / P80: Typical weekly range (20th–80th percentile). Position size accordingly.
Reward Stats: Average weekly returns by state/transition. Positives are favourable; negatives suggest caution.