Markov Analyzer

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Lookahead Horizon (k weeks)

Move the slider to see probabilities within 1–8 weeks.

UHRN - The Swatch Group AG SWX

Metric	Value
Current State	Neutral
Prob. Up Next Week	0.023
Prob. Up ≤ 2	0.043
Expected Run (Current)	11.0
Expected Run (Up)	8.0
P20 / P80 Bands	-0.282 / 0.23

Quick Read

Prob. Up Next Week

0.023

Prob. Up ≤ k

0.043

Expected Run (Current)

11.000

Expected Run (Up)

8.000

Avg Return in Up (wk)

0.014

Avg Return in Neutral

-0.004

Avg Return in Down

-0.008

Plain-English Interpretation

Current regime: Neutral.

Short-term odds do not favour an Up move yet. Current regime is usually short-lived. If/when it flips Up, rallies often carry for several weeks. Average weekly return while Up is positive - constructive when the regime turns. Down regime carries negative drift - avoid knife-catching. Typical weekly range sits between -0.282 and 0.230 (20th–80th pct).

Reward Stats (avg % return)

State	Avg Return	Samples
0	-0.008	29
1	-0.004	85
2	0.014	29

Transition	Avg Return	Samples
0->0	-0.009	24
0->1	-0.001	5
1->0	-0.003	5
1->1	-0.005	79
1->2	0.022	1
2->1	-0.009	2
2->2	0.015	27

How to Read These Results

This screener uses a Markov chain model built from past price movements between “Down”, “Neutral”, and “Up” states.

Prob. Up Next Week: Chance that the next weekly move is Up. >0.6 is strong; <0.4 is weak.
Prob. Up ≤ k: Chance of seeing at least one Up week within the next k weeks.
Expected Run (Current / Up): How many weeks a regime tends to last. Longer Up runs are constructive.
P20 / P80: Typical weekly range (20th–80th percentile). Position size accordingly.
Reward Stats: Average weekly returns by state/transition. Positives are favourable; negatives suggest caution.