Markov Analyzer

Type a symbol (e.g., BARC) or company name, then load a ticker inline.

Searching…

Lookahead Horizon (k weeks)

Move the slider to see probabilities within 1–8 weeks.

ASTL - Algoma Steel Group Inc. TSX

Metric	Value
Current State	Down
Prob. Up Next Week	0.032
Prob. Up ≤ 2	0.06
Expected Run (Current)	5.17
Expected Run (Up)	8.0
P20 / P80 Bands	-0.337 / 0.37

Quick Read

Prob. Up Next Week

0.032

Prob. Up ≤ k

0.060

Expected Run (Current)

5.170

Expected Run (Up)

8.000

Avg Return in Up (wk)

0.012

Avg Return in Neutral

0.003

Avg Return in Down

-0.021

Plain-English Interpretation

Current regime: Down.

Short-term odds do not favour an Up move yet. Downtrends here can linger; patience is key if waiting for a turn. If/when it flips Up, rallies often carry for several weeks. Average weekly return while Up is positive - constructive when the regime turns. Down regime carries negative drift - avoid knife-catching. Typical weekly range sits between -0.337 and 0.370 (20th–80th pct).

Reward Stats (avg % return)

State	Avg Return	Samples
0	-0.021	28
1	0.003	86
2	0.012	29

Transition	Avg Return	Samples
0->0	-0.024	24
0->1	0.001	4
1->0	-0.021	4
1->1	0.005	80
1->2	-0.013	2
2->1	-0.011	2
2->2	0.014	27

How to Read These Results

This screener uses a Markov chain model built from past price movements between “Down”, “Neutral”, and “Up” states.

Prob. Up Next Week: Chance that the next weekly move is Up. >0.6 is strong; <0.4 is weak.
Prob. Up ≤ k: Chance of seeing at least one Up week within the next k weeks.
Expected Run (Current / Up): How many weeks a regime tends to last. Longer Up runs are constructive.
P20 / P80: Typical weekly range (20th–80th percentile). Position size accordingly.
Reward Stats: Average weekly returns by state/transition. Positives are favourable; negatives suggest caution.