CBOE · Market · Weekly research

CBRZ Elliott Wave report

Tradr 2X Short CBRS Daily ETF

Week ending 24 Jul 2026 Close USD 15.90 9 weekly observations
Current structure Needs more weekly history
20/100 setup score 32/100 data quality
The setup score is a rules-based composite, not a probability or price forecast.
Investment view

What the current structure is saying

Based on weekly closing prices
Setup lifecycle

Watching

The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation.

Now

Possible bearish Wave 3 declining is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.

Next

A weekly close through 15.90, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.

Wrong

The underlying directional structure fails beyond 24.36; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.

Risk

The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.

The picture behind the setup

Weekly wave structure and decision levels

Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined marker is still forming. Decision lines show where the primary interpretation confirms or fails.

Close 30-week trend Fair Value Confirm Directional failure
Scenario comparison

How the valid counts compete

Possible bearish Wave 3 declining35%
A/B/C reset may be completing30%
Possible bearish Wave 3 declining35%
Relative evidence among displayed counts—not forecast probabilities.
Pre-emptive downside check

Contained

29/100
Wave maturity0/25
Trend extension0/20
Range position0/15
Cycle rollover11/15
Multi-cycle risk8/15
Count instability10/10
Event proximity0/10

This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down.

Current read

The closing-price swing map is classified as needs more weekly history. 0 of 3 available confirmation measures are constructive.

0 constructive · 2 neutral · 1 weak

What would confirm it

Evidence to look for next

  • A weekly close through 24.36, the nearest confirmed swing high.
  • Cycle pressure and the 20/40-week rhythms continuing to rise together.
  • Relative strength and market activity remaining above neutral.
What would challenge it

Nearest confirmed structure level

USD 24.36

Confirmed on 2026-07-17. Treat this as a structure reference, not an automatic trading level.

4-week return -44.8%
13-week return -
26-week return -
52-week return -
From 52-week high -57.5%
26-week volatility 231.0%
Wave structure

Price, trend and the active swing

The chart uses a 16.0% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Primary admissible count

Possible bearish Wave 3 declining

35% evidence weight

Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities.

Confirm 15.90 Invalidate 24.36 Count stability Unavailable · 0/100
PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 28.82; Wave 2 24.36.
PassWave 3 exceeds Wave 1Wave 1 16.46; Wave 3 15.90.
GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 64% of Wave 1.
GuidelineWave 3 extension is plausibleWave 3 is 0.68× Wave 1.
Strategic degreePossible bearish Wave 3 declining

Strategic degree uses a 24.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreePossible bearish Wave 3 declining

Primary degree uses a 16.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreePossible bearish Wave 3 declining

Tactical degree uses a 11.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing -34.7%

1 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support -

No lower pivot in the current window

Nearest confirmed resistance 24.36

Pivot from 2026-07-17

30-week trend -

Not available

Fair Value reference 23.23

Price is -31.6% from Fair Value

52-week range position 22%

9.99 low · 37.43 high

Cycle timing

Are the main rhythms moving together?

Nominal cycles are starting bands, not fixed clocks. Each period adapts to the strongest nearby repeat in detrended weekly prices; projected turns are future intervals and require price confirmation.

Pressure phaseFalling

Current medium-term pressure direction

Multi-cycle alignmentMixed

50/100 constructive · 50/100 risk

Nearest trough window-

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Nearest crest window-

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Multi-cycle rhythm

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

Nominal / estimated10w / 10w
Current phaseWarming
Period evidence0/100
FLD confirmationCrossed Down
Since last trough-
Future trough interval-
Nominal / estimated20w / 20w
Current phaseWarming
Period evidence0/100
FLD confirmationUnconfirmed
Since last trough-
Future trough interval-
Nominal / estimated40w / 40w
Current phaseWarming
Period evidence0/100
FLD confirmationUnconfirmed
Since last trough-
Future trough interval-
Nominal / estimated80w / 80w
Current phaseWarming
Period evidence0/100
FLD confirmationUnconfirmed
Since last trough-
Future trough interval-
Confirmation

Does price behaviour support the wave count?

Each measure answers a different question. Agreement across several measures is more useful than one strong reading in isolation.

33% confirmation alignment
Trend

The 30-week trend line is not available.

Unavailable
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is not rising.

Falling
Cycle alignment

Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction.

Mixed
Relative strength

The reading is neutral or unavailable.

Unavailable
Market activity

The reading is neutral or unavailable.

Unavailable
Market dynamics

The reading is neutral or unavailable.

+0.0
30-week momentum

The reading is neutral or unavailable.

Unavailable
Combined reading Defensive

0 constructive, 1 weak and 2 neutral measures.

This is a count of rules-based evidence, not a recommendation.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Risk and participation

How much movement sits behind the pattern?

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

52-week low9.99
52-week high37.43
Annualised volatility231.0%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range53.9%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-51.2%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume313%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

Market, peer and event context

Is the structure isolated—or supported by its environment?

Peer breadth tests whether the sector is moving with this security. Event and options context tests whether a catalyst could overwhelm otherwise valid technical structure.

Sector breadth

47% constructive

8 of 17 analysed peers have a bullish rule-valid primary count.

41% have improving cycle stacks Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.
Event collision

No near collision identified

Options: Volatility · 59/100 conviction · ±47.6% expected move

No stored event or positioning warning currently conflicts with the count.

Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure.
Peer-state horizonIndependent samplesPositiveMedianMedian excess vs SPY10th–90th percentile
4 weeks0----
13 weeks0----
26 weeks0----
Historical context

What followed similar readings in this security?

Matches compare trend, cycle direction, momentum, relative strength and market dynamics using only information available at each historical week.

0 similar weekly states
Not enough comparable history yet

Historical context appears only when at least eight completed outcomes are available for one of the measured horizons.

At least 90 weekly observations are required.

Evidence quality32/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
3/100
Indicator coverage
33/100
Confirmed structure
83/100
Model ewc-2.1.0 · as of 2026-07-24 · only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained.
How the count is built

Rules, references and limitations

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 16.0% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
  • Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
  • Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
  • Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

The exact points used to construct the visible wave map.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2026-06-05 Confirmed High 32.61 - 0 weeks
2026-06-19 Confirmed Low 20.00 -38.7% 2 weeks
2026-06-26 Confirmed High 28.82 44.1% 1 weeks
2026-07-10 Confirmed Low 16.46 -42.9% 2 weeks
2026-07-17 Confirmed High 24.36 48.0% 1 weeks
2026-07-24 Forming Low 15.90 -34.7% 1 weeks