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Live prediction markets ยท updated 3m ago
Sharemaestro Prediction Markets
Prediction markets, clearly ranked.
Live probabilities, market movement, liquidity and signal quality across the contracts we track.
Crypto
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 4?
Open market โ Fast Repricing +29.4 ptsTechnology
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of August 31 above $355?
Open market โ Expectation Fade -18.1 ptsTechnology
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $324 Week of August 31 2026?
Open market โ
Themes
Probability and signal strength by theme
Compare average implied probability with the strength and volume of the underlying markets.
Crypto
34
64 markets
2.7M volume
31.4% avg probability
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 4?
Explore Crypto โ
Economy
32
4 markets
20.5K volume
3.9% avg probability
Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.7%?
Explore Economy โ
Geopolitics
28
38 markets
806.0K volume
29.9% avg probability
Will Ursula von der Leyen visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
Explore Geopolitics โ
Politics & Policy
26
453 markets
61.9M volume
19.9% avg probability
Will Trump say "Fever" or "Flu" this week?
Explore Politics & Policy โ
Rates & Inflation
25
21 markets
260.1K volume
15.8% avg probability
No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?
Explore Rates & Inflation โ
Weather & Climate
24
32 markets
35.3K volume
39.0% avg probability
Will Rutgers have more than 3.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?
Explore Weather & Climate โ
Technology
16
520 markets
2.8M volume
3.3% avg probability
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $324 Week of August 31 2026?
Explore Technology โ
Energy
16
2363 markets
5.7M volume
0.3% avg probability
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
Explore Energy โ
Opportunity board
Markets with movement and support
Ranked using signal strength, quality, momentum, urgency and the size of the latest probability move.
Watch score0โ100
Market explorer
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Search and filter the highest-ranked live markets. Open any row for full probability history and signal anatomy.
80markets shown
| Market | Probability | 24h move | Signal | Quality | Volume | Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $324 Week of August 31 2026? Technology ยท Polymarket |
44.4%
|
-18.1 pts | Probability Fade | 32/100 | 932 | โ |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? Energy ยท Polymarket |
34.5%
|
-58.0 pts | Probability Fade | 62/100 | 921.1K | โ |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 4? Crypto ยท Polymarket |
18.5%
|
-7.9 pts | Probability Fade | 54/100 | 99.1K | โ |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 August 31-September 6? Crypto ยท Polymarket |
2.2%
|
-11.9 pts | Probability Fade | 55/100 | 96.4K | โ |
| Will Trump say "Fever" or "Flu" this week? Politics & Policy ยท Polymarket |
12.0%
|
-30.5 pts | Probability Fade | 25/100 | 98 | โ |
| Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of August 31 above $355? Technology ยท Polymarket |
88.9%
|
+29.4 pts | Probability Surge | 36/100 | 969 | โ |
| Will Humberto Costa win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election? Politics & Policy ยท Polymarket |
37.5%
|
-21.0 pts | Probability Fade | 40/100 | 9.6K | โ |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on September 4? Crypto ยท Polymarket |
43.0%
|
-11.5 pts | Probability Fade | 39/100 | 966 | โ |
| Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of August 31 above $320? Technology ยท Polymarket |
91.1%
|
+11.6 pts | Probability Surge | 30/100 | 98 | โ |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on September 4? Crypto ยท Polymarket |
46.5%
|
+18.0 pts | Probability Surge | 30/100 | 994 | โ |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September? Crypto ยท Polymarket |
35.5%
|
+16.5 pts | Probability Surge | 55/100 | 99.8K | โ |
| Will Domenico Giannetta win the next Reggio di Calabria by-election? Politics & Policy ยท Polymarket |
18.0%
|
+13.0 pts | Probability Surge | 35/100 | 99 | โ |
| Will Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win between 27% and 30% of all valid votes? Politics & Policy ยท Polymarket |
56.0%
|
+13.0 pts | Probability Surge | 46/100 | 9.3K | โ |
| Will Rutgers have more than 3.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season? Weather & Climate ยท Polymarket |
64.0%
|
-16.5 pts | Probability Fade | 36/100 | 937 | โ |
| Exact Score: Any Other Score? Politics & Policy ยท Polymarket |
21.0%
|
-10.5 pts | Probability Fade | 34/100 | 990 | โ |
| Will Rachel Campos-Duffy be the next White House Press Secretary? Politics & Policy ยท Polymarket |
15.2%
|
+11.0 pts | Probability Surge | 36/100 | 998 | โ |
| Will Michigan State have more than 4.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season? Weather & Climate ยท Polymarket |
24.5%
|
-12.5 pts | Probability Fade | 35/100 | 923 | โ |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IL-12 House election by 50% or more? Politics & Policy ยท Polymarket |
17.2%
|
+14.2 pts | Probability Surge | 28/100 | 98 | โ |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September? Energy ยท Polymarket |
15.8%
|
+9.6 pts | Probability Surge | 54/100 | 92.1K | โ |
| Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Nevada be between 1,275,000 and 1,350,000? Politics & Policy ยท Polymarket |
19.2%
|
+14.3 pts | Probability Surge | 26/100 | 92 | โ |
| Will it snow in Buffalo, NY by October 31? Weather & Climate ยท Polymarket |
55.5%
|
-15.0 pts | Probability Fade | 22/100 | 93 | โ |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on September 8? Crypto ยท Polymarket |
94.5%
|
+10.0 pts | Probability Surge | 42/100 | 971 | โ |
| Will Concrete launch a token by June 30, 2027? Crypto ยท Polymarket |
90.5%
|
+20.5 pts | Probability Surge | 44/100 | 10.0K | โ |
| Will Leila do Vรดlei win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election? Politics & Policy ยท Polymarket |
55.0%
|
+9.5 pts | Probability Surge | 42/100 | 9.7K | โ |
| Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 17, 2026? Technology ยท Polymarket |
42.9%
|
+42.4 pts | Probability Surge | 30/100 | 983 | โ |
| Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from September 1 to September 8, 2026? Politics & Policy ยท Polymarket |
3.5%
|
-9.0 pts | Probability Fade | 34/100 | 937 | โ |
| Will OpenAIโs Astra model debut with a Humanityโs Last Exam score of 60% or higher? Technology ยท Polymarket |
1.7%
|
-23.3 pts | Probability Fade | 40/100 | 10.0K | โ |
| Will Ursula von der Leyen visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? Geopolitics ยท Polymarket |
30.0%
|
-15.0 pts | Probability Fade | 39/100 | 9.8K | โ |
| Will Iran target Iraq by August 31, 2026? Energy ยท Polymarket |
0.6%
|
-30.4 pts | Probability Fade | 46/100 | 9.2K | โ |
| Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.7%? Economy ยท Polymarket |
4.0%
|
-12.0 pts | Probability Fade | 42/100 | 9.2K | โ |
| Will London have between 30-40mm of precipitation in September? Weather & Climate ยท Polymarket |
5.5%
|
-21.0 pts | Probability Fade | 29/100 | 93 | โ |
| Will Russia target Kyiv by September 11, 2026? Geopolitics ยท Polymarket |
100.0%
|
+10.0 pts | Probability Surge | 36/100 | 100 | โ |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? Energy ยท Polymarket |
86.5%
|
+6.0 pts | Probability Surge | 61/100 | 991.7K | โ |
| Exact Score: Danubio FC 3 - 0 CA Penarol Montevideo? Politics & Policy ยท Polymarket |
1.2%
|
-23.2 pts | Probability Fade | 32/100 | 99 | โ |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 7? Crypto ยท Polymarket |
30.5%
|
-2.7 pts | Watch | 49/100 | 9.3K | โ |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Energy ยท Polymarket |
41.5%
|
+32.0 pts | Probability Surge | 28/100 | 92 | โ |
| No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting? Rates & Inflation ยท Polymarket |
89.5%
|
+6.0 pts | Probability Surge | 41/100 | 9.6K | โ |
| Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on September 4? Crypto ยท Polymarket |
53.5%
|
+2.0 pts | Watch | 40/100 | 923 | โ |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 4? Crypto ยท Polymarket |
96.3%
|
-1.1 pts | High Conviction | 55/100 | 99.2K | โ |
| Exact Score: Internacional FC De Palmira 0 - 0 Real Cundinamarca? Politics & Policy ยท Polymarket |
0.3%
|
-37.3 pts | Probability Fade | 35/100 | 94 | โ |
| Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary? Politics & Policy ยท Polymarket |
6.0%
|
-13.5 pts | Probability Fade | 30/100 | 99 | โ |
| Will OpenAIโs Astra model be released by September 25, 2026? Technology ยท Polymarket |
92.2%
|
-7.6 pts | Probability Fade | 44/100 | 10.0K | โ |
| Will claude-opus-5-high be the best AI model on September 7, 2026? Technology ยท Polymarket |
1.4%
|
+0.1 pts | Probability Fade | 44/100 | 9.4K | โ |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IN-01 House election? Politics & Policy ยท Polymarket |
35.0%
|
+23.0 pts | Probability Surge | 23/100 | 97 | โ |
| Will over 58 Senators vote for the Clarity Act? Politics & Policy ยท Polymarket |
26.0%
|
-7.5 pts | Probability Fade | 34/100 | 956 | โ |
| Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $344 in September? Technology ยท Polymarket |
46.5%
|
+9.5 pts | Probability Surge | 30/100 | 99 | โ |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 PA-10 House election by 0%-3%? Politics & Policy ยท Polymarket |
23.5%
|
+8.5 pts | Probability Surge | 29/100 | 92 | โ |
| Greta Thunberg arrested by December 31? Politics & Policy ยท Polymarket |
81.0%
|
-13.9 pts | Probability Fade | 37/100 | 953 | โ |
| Will AfD win fewer than 34 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? Politics & Policy ยท Polymarket |
0.6%
|
-3.4 pts | Watch | 50/100 | 9.6K | โ |
| Will Claude Reid win the next Beauharnois Quebec National Assembly election? Politics & Policy ยท Polymarket |
24.5%
|
-19.5 pts | Probability Fade | 23/100 | 96 | โ |
| Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? Rates & Inflation ยท Polymarket |
36.5%
|
+8.0 pts | Probability Surge | 53/100 | 97.8K | โ |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on September 4? Crypto ยท Polymarket |
0.3%
|
-0.3 pts | Watch | 55/100 | 99.9K | โ |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 4? Crypto ยท Polymarket |
0.6%
|
+0.2 pts | Watch | 55/100 | 99.4K | โ |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 4? Crypto ยท Polymarket |
3.9%
|
+0.2 pts | Watch | 55/100 | 96.4K | โ |
| Will Thom Tillis vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? Politics & Policy ยท Polymarket |
20.0%
|
+12.0 pts | Probability Surge | 36/100 | 9.8K | โ |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 4? Crypto ยท Polymarket |
99.8%
|
0.0 pts | High Conviction | 55/100 | 100.0K | โ |
| Exact Score: Deportivo Rayo Zuliano 0 - 1 Carabobo FC? Politics & Policy ยท Polymarket |
0.5%
|
-13.6 pts | Probability Fade | 34/100 | 96 | โ |
| Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by September 30? Politics & Policy ยท Polymarket |
80.5%
|
+4.0 pts | Probability Surge | 46/100 | 10.0K | โ |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 August 31-September 6? Crypto ยท Polymarket |
0.4%
|
-2.2 pts | Watch | 55/100 | 95.9K | โ |
| Will Flรกvio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Politics & Policy ยท Polymarket |
42.4%
|
-0.9 pts | Watch | 70/100 | 9.7M | โ |
| Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? Politics & Policy ยท Polymarket |
49.2%
|
+3.9 pts | Probability Surge | 45/100 | 96.8K | โ |
| Will Marcio Bittar win the most votes in the 2026 Acre Senate election? Politics & Policy ยท Polymarket |
34.5%
|
-3.5 pts | Probability Fade | 41/100 | 9.6K | โ |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on September 7? Crypto ยท Polymarket |
2.5%
|
-4.5 pts | Watch | 40/100 | 945 | โ |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in September? Crypto ยท Polymarket |
43.0%
|
-4.5 pts | Watch | 56/100 | 93.4K | โ |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on September 4? Energy ยท Polymarket |
78.0%
|
-5.0 pts | Probability Fade | 26/100 | 10 | โ |
| Exact Score: RKS Rakow Czestochowa 1 - 2 Gornik Zabrze? Politics & Policy ยท Polymarket |
50.5%
|
+41.0 pts | Probability Surge | 27/100 | 95 | โ |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Abdul El-Sayed by September 30, 2026? Politics & Policy ยท Polymarket |
49.5%
|
-26.0 pts | Probability Fade | 28/100 | 987 | โ |
| Exact Score: Metropolitanos FC 0 - 0 Trujillanos FC? Politics & Policy ยท Polymarket |
0.5%
|
-41.1 pts | Probability Fade | 25/100 | 9 | โ |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026? Technology ยท Polymarket |
26.5%
|
-6.0 pts | Probability Fade | 42/100 | 9.8K | โ |
| Will Linke win 40 or more seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Politics & Policy ยท Polymarket |
25.0%
|
-5.0 pts | Probability Fade | 45/100 | 9.5K | โ |
| Will Brentford FC win on 2026-09-05? Energy ยท Polymarket |
59.5%
|
+1.0 pts | Watch | 52/100 | 9.8K | โ |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $224 Week of August 31 2026? Technology ยท Polymarket |
26.0%
|
+4.0 pts | Watch | 29/100 | 99 | โ |
| Will BSW win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes? Politics & Policy ยท Polymarket |
15.5%
|
+4.0 pts | Watch | 40/100 | 929 | โ |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 August 31-September 6? Crypto ยท Polymarket |
24.5%
|
+4.0 pts | Watch | 40/100 | 973 | โ |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanityโs Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? Technology ยท Polymarket |
58.5%
|
+8.0 pts | Probability Surge | 40/100 | 9.7K | โ |
| Will Mark Rutte visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? Geopolitics ยท Polymarket |
30.0%
|
+4.0 pts | Probability Fade | 40/100 | 9.7K | โ |
| Will Tomรกลก Vohryzka be the next Mayor of รstรญ nad Labem? Politics & Policy ยท Polymarket |
33.5%
|
+9.0 pts | Probability Surge | 35/100 | 972 | โ |
| Exact Score: Al-Sailiya SC 2 - 1 Al Arabi Doha SC? Politics & Policy ยท Polymarket |
50.0%
|
+46.4 pts | Probability Surge | 23/100 | 95 | โ |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on September 8? Crypto ยท Polymarket |
22.0%
|
+3.5 pts | Watch | 40/100 | 930 | โ |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? Technology ยท Polymarket |
24.0%
|
-1.0 pts | Probability Fade | 51/100 | 94.5K | โ |
No markets match those filters.
Method
How the rankings work
ProbabilityThe crowdโs current implied chanceโnot a guarantee or Sharemaestro forecast.
MomentumHow quickly the expectation is repricing over the latest 24 hours and seven days.
QualityEvidence strength based on participation, liquidity, spread and usable history.
Watch scoreA ranking of signal strength, quality, momentum, urgency and the latest probability move.