Prediction Market Pulse

Expectations vs Price Action.

1211 relevant prediction markets are live. Strongest current theme: Energy. Top signal: Probability Surge in Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 21?.

Live markets 1211
Signals 1211
Freshness 3m
Dominant Theme Energy 37/100

Iran successfully targets shipping on July 21?

 Fast Repricing Crypto +18.0 pts

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 21?

 Expectation Fade Crypto -21.5 pts

Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on July 20?
Theme pressure

Where expectations are concentrating

Kalshi 561 Polymarket 650
Energy 37.2

37 markets · avg probability 34.1%

Iran successfully targets shipping on July 21? Technology 33.2

80 markets · avg probability 25.2%

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? Geopolitics 31.7

44 markets · avg probability 25.5%

Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by December 31, 2026? Crypto 31.4

126 markets · avg probability 35.0%

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 21? Economy 28.8

9 markets · avg probability 20.4%

Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0% and 0.1%? Politics & Policy 28.4

316 markets · avg probability 28.2%

Will "Little House on the Prairie: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week? Rates & Inflation 26.0

42 markets · avg probability 12.2%

Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in June? Weather & Climate 16.6

557 markets · avg probability 1.6%

Will Hong Kong have between 450-475mm of precipitation in July?
Opportunity map

Quality vs probability across all themes

The most useful markets usually sit toward the upper-right: stronger data quality and clearer implied probability.

Probability momentum

Top expectation moves

Signal tape

Highest priority markets

Crypto expectation is rising at 99.4%. 24h move +18.0 pts. 7d move +33.0 pts. Data quality 54/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

Crypto expectation is falling at 8.5%. 24h move -21.5 pts. 7d move -21.5 pts. Data quality 47/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 67.0%. 24h move -17.0 pts. 7d move -17.0 pts. Data quality 37/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

Crypto expectation is falling at 1.0%. 24h move -10.6 pts. 7d move -12.0 pts. Data quality 55/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

Crypto expectation is rising at 79.5%. 24h move +46.0 pts. 7d move +46.0 pts. Data quality 48/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

Crypto expectation is falling at 0.6%. 24h move -18.8 pts. 7d move -9.8 pts. Data quality 49/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

Crypto expectation is rising at 82.0%. 24h move +10.5 pts. 7d move +10.5 pts. Data quality 47/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

Geopolitics expectation is rising at 89.2%. 24h move +31.8 pts. 7d move +66.8 pts. Data quality 55/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

Technology expectation is rising at 68.5%. 24h move +36.0 pts. 7d move +36.0 pts. Data quality 52/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

Crypto expectation is falling at 0.6%. 24h move -9.8 pts. 7d move -9.8 pts. Data quality 47/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

Energy expectation is rising at 59.0%. 24h move +9.0 pts. 7d move +9.0 pts. Data quality 29/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

Technology expectation is falling at 1.6%. 24h move -24.5 pts. 7d move -32.0 pts. Data quality 28/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

Energy expectation is falling at 25.5%. 24h move -12.5 pts. 7d move -19.0 pts. Data quality 55/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

Technology expectation is rising at 100.0%. 24h move +15.4 pts. 7d move +15.4 pts. Data quality 43/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

Crowd conviction

Highest implied probabilities

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $328 Week of July 20 2026? Technology · Polymarket 100.0% Exact Score: FC Rapid 1923 1 - 0 Sepsi OSK? Politics & Policy · Polymarket 100.0% Bitcoin above 64,400 on July 20, 11AM ET? Crypto · Polymarket 100.0% Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on July 20? Crypto · Polymarket 100.0% Games Total: O/U 2.5 Geopolitics · Polymarket 100.0% WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on July 20? Energy · Polymarket 100.0%
Data quality

Most reliable market reads

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