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Live prediction markets · updated 2m ago
Sharemaestro Prediction Markets
Prediction markets, clearly ranked.
Live probabilities, market movement, liquidity and signal quality across the contracts we track.
Energy
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of August 10 2026?
Open market → Fast Repricing +10.5 ptsCrypto
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on August 14?
Open market → Expectation Fade -39.5 ptsTechnology
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 21, 2026?
Open market →
Themes
Probability and signal strength by theme
Compare average implied probability with the strength and volume of the underlying markets.
Energy
35
21 markets
3.4M volume
21.2% avg probability
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of August 10 2026?
Explore Energy →
Rates & Inflation
31
18 markets
454.6K volume
32.3% avg probability
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in July 2026 be between 1.8% and 2.0%?
Explore Rates & Inflation →
Crypto
31
72 markets
1.7M volume
25.3% avg probability
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on August 14?
Explore Crypto →
Economy
30
6 markets
22.9K volume
12.1% avg probability
Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in June 2026 be less than 0.0%?
Explore Economy →
Politics & Policy
27
493 markets
76.6M volume
17.9% avg probability
Exact Score: FC Rapid 1923 3 - 3 Dinamo 1948?
Explore Politics & Policy →
Technology
22
177 markets
968.2K volume
6.0% avg probability
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 21, 2026?
Explore Technology →
Weather & Climate
20
14 markets
21.0K volume
41.2% avg probability
Will Typhoon Dolphin be a "Very Strong Typhoon" at Japan landfall?
Explore Weather & Climate →
Geopolitics
14
1113 markets
2.9M volume
1.8% avg probability
Todi: Marco Cecchinato vs Francesco Forti
Explore Geopolitics →
Opportunity board
Markets with movement and support
Ranked using signal strength, quality, momentum, urgency and the size of the latest probability move.
Watch score0–100
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80markets shown
| Market | Probability | 24h move | Signal | Quality | Volume | Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on August 14? Crypto · Polymarket |
39.5%
|
+10.5 pts | Probability Surge | 48/100 | 9.8K | → |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 21, 2026? Technology · Polymarket |
24.5%
|
-39.5 pts | Probability Fade | 50/100 | 99.3K | → |
| Will Argentina's monthly inflation in July 2026 be between 1.8% and 2.0%? Rates & Inflation · Polymarket |
72.5%
|
+5.5 pts | Probability Surge | 40/100 | 9.5K | → |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of August 10 2026? Energy · Polymarket |
64.0%
|
+38.5 pts | Probability Surge | 44/100 | 10.0K | → |
| Exact Score: FC Rapid 1923 3 - 3 Dinamo 1948? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
10.6%
|
-11.8 pts | Probability Fade | 22/100 | 94 | → |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on August 12? Energy · Polymarket |
2.5%
|
-13.1 pts | Probability Fade | 38/100 | 983 | → |
| Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be between 30,000-40,000? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
11.5%
|
-9.0 pts | Probability Fade | 48/100 | 9.9K | → |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? Technology · Polymarket |
71.5%
|
+21.0 pts | Probability Surge | 53/100 | 92.5K | → |
| Todi: Marco Cecchinato vs Francesco Forti Geopolitics · Polymarket |
83.5%
|
+13.0 pts | Probability Surge | 55/100 | 9.0K | → |
| Will Trump post "China" on Truth Social this week? Geopolitics · Polymarket |
89.5%
|
+33.0 pts | Probability Surge | 37/100 | 956 | → |
| Will Trump say "Crime" 15+ times during remarks in New York? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
53.0%
|
+14.5 pts | Probability Surge | 36/100 | 933 | → |
| Exact Score: Getafe CF 0 - 3 Real Racing Club? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
13.2%
|
-11.9 pts | Thin Market | 20/100 | 9 | → |
| Will the Labour Party win 55 or more seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
17.7%
|
+15.5 pts | Probability Surge | 34/100 | 931 | → |
| Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
99.6%
|
+95.7 pts | Probability Surge | 63/100 | 975.8K | → |
| Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on August 12? Crypto · Polymarket |
5.5%
|
-8.0 pts | Probability Fade | 46/100 | 9.9K | → |
| Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? Technology · Polymarket |
52.5%
|
+35.0 pts | Probability Surge | 40/100 | 9.8K | → |
| Exact Score: Bucheon FC 1995 0 - 0 Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
37.5%
|
+31.5 pts | Thin Market | 20/100 | 10 | → |
| Exact Score: FC Argeș Pitești 3 - 3 FCV Farul Constanţa? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
1.2%
|
-18.0 pts | Probability Fade | 28/100 | 91 | → |
| Will TikTok Pro - Events be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on August 14? Technology · Polymarket |
44.5%
|
+14.0 pts | Probability Surge | 22/100 | 94 | → |
| Will Christer Olsson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Uppsala? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
5.3%
|
-21.2 pts | Probability Fade | 27/100 | 90 | → |
| Todi: Completed Match: Marco Cecchinato vs Francesco Forti Geopolitics · Polymarket |
99.5%
|
+50.0 pts | Probability Surge | 36/100 | 940 | → |
| Exact Score: Bucheon FC 1995 0 - 3 Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
38.8%
|
+34.0 pts | Thin Market | 19/100 | 10 | → |
| Exact Score: Bucheon FC 1995 1 - 2 Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
39.0%
|
+31.0 pts | Thin Market | 19/100 | 10 | → |
| Fubon Guardians vs. Chinatrust Brothers Geopolitics · Polymarket |
99.6%
|
+49.6 pts | Probability Surge | 34/100 | 97 | → |
| Will Ivideliza Reyes Hernández win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
23.1%
|
-9.8 pts | Probability Surge | 29/100 | 100 | → |
| Will Microsoft have the #3 AI model at the end of August 2026? Technology · Polymarket |
1.7%
|
-24.8 pts | Probability Fade | 36/100 | 899 | → |
| Will Geraldine Ponce Méndez win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
59.5%
|
+38.5 pts | Probability Surge | 36/100 | 977 | → |
| Will Rodolfo Valenzuela Sánchez win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
37.5%
|
+15.0 pts | Probability Surge | 23/100 | 93 | → |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 12? Crypto · Polymarket |
8.5%
|
-56.0 pts | Probability Fade | 53/100 | 98.7K | → |
| Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July? Rates & Inflation · Polymarket |
48.0%
|
+21.5 pts | Probability Surge | 52/100 | 99.1K | → |
| Will Core PCE MoM be 0.0% in July? Rates & Inflation · Polymarket |
0.4%
|
-12.5 pts | Probability Fade | 35/100 | 965 | → |
| Will the Republican Party win the MN-01 House seat? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
53.5%
|
-20.5 pts | Probability Fade | 42/100 | 10.0K | → |
| Will Leif-Erik Holm be the next Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
4.2%
|
-32.4 pts | Probability Fade | 42/100 | 941 | → |
| Exact Score: CA San Miguel 2 - 3 CA Colegiales? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
25.1%
|
+23.8 pts | Probability Surge | 21/100 | 9 | → |
| Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $322.50 Week of August 10 2026? Technology · Polymarket |
62.5%
|
+9.0 pts | Probability Surge | 39/100 | 935 | → |
| Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.5T? Technology · Polymarket |
12.4%
|
-26.2 pts | Probability Fade | 37/100 | 941 | → |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on August 12? Crypto · Polymarket |
37.0%
|
-19.0 pts | Probability Fade | 47/100 | 10.0K | → |
| Exact Score: CA Platense 3 - 0 CA Boca Juniors? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
24.3%
|
+16.6 pts | Probability Surge | 21/100 | 9 | → |
| Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on August 12? Crypto · Polymarket |
75.0%
|
-6.0 pts | Probability Fade | 40/100 | 952 | → |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on August 12? Energy · Polymarket |
75.5%
|
+6.0 pts | Probability Surge | 40/100 | 988 | → |
| Will María Cristina Lupien win the 2027 Colima Governor Election? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
19.5%
|
-10.5 pts | Probability Fade | 28/100 | 97 | → |
| Will Carlos Torres Piña win the 2027 Michoacán Governor Election? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
11.0%
|
-26.0 pts | Probability Fade | 35/100 | 91 | → |
| Will Griselda Martínez Martínez win the 2027 Colima Governor Election? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
34.5%
|
+14.0 pts | Probability Surge | 27/100 | 90 | → |
| SSVg Velbert vs. Borussia Monchengladbach: Draw at halftime? Geopolitics · Polymarket |
1.5%
|
-15.1 pts | Probability Fade | 24/100 | 99 | → |
| Will Peggy Flanagan win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
0.1%
|
-14.0 pts | Probability Fade | 46/100 | 9.8K | → |
| Exact Score: Bucheon FC 1995 0 - 1 Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
8.5%
|
-2.5 pts | Probability Fade | 21/100 | 10 | → |
| Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in June 2026 be less than 0.0%? Economy · Polymarket |
11.5%
|
+10.1 pts | Probability Surge | 34/100 | 923 | → |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Zohran Mamdani by August 31, 2026? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
44.0%
|
+16.0 pts | Probability Surge | 21/100 | 93 | → |
| Exact Score: Bucheon FC 1995 0 - 2 Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
6.5%
|
-2.0 pts | Probability Fade | 21/100 | 10 | → |
| Will Gloria Núñez Sánchez win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
7.5%
|
-14.0 pts | Probability Fade | 32/100 | 100 | → |
| Exact Score: Real Salt Lake 2 - 1 FC Juárez? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
0.1%
|
-18.5 pts | Probability Fade | 39/100 | 959 | → |
| Will SpaceXAI be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? Technology · Polymarket |
1.1%
|
-3.4 pts | Probability Fade | 36/100 | 974 | → |
| Exact Score: Real Salt Lake 3 - 1 FC Juárez? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
0.1%
|
-20.5 pts | Probability Fade | 39/100 | 998 | → |
| Exact Score: Charlotte FC 1 - 3 CF Pachuca? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
0.1%
|
-25.9 pts | Probability Fade | 38/100 | 919 | → |
| Will Alan Grayson be the FL-07 Democratic nominee? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
2.1%
|
-6.4 pts | Probability Fade | 41/100 | 918 | → |
| Will Gricelda Valencia de la Mora win the 2027 Colima Governor Election? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
25.5%
|
+8.5 pts | Probability Surge | 28/100 | 90 | → |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on August 13? Crypto · Polymarket |
68.5%
|
+4.0 pts | Watch | 42/100 | 966 | → |
| Will Cecilia Linder be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Uppsala? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
5.4%
|
-20.8 pts | Probability Fade | 28/100 | 90 | → |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on August 12? Crypto · Polymarket |
38.5%
|
+10.0 pts | Probability Surge | 47/100 | 10.0K | → |
| Will Unn Harsem be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Uppsala? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
6.2%
|
-20.9 pts | Probability Fade | 27/100 | 90 | → |
| Will Peggy Flanagan win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
10.0%
|
-8.5 pts | Probability Fade | 38/100 | 9.1K | → |
| Will María Teresa Guerra Ochoa win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
27.5%
|
+12.0 pts | Probability Surge | 24/100 | 93 | → |
| Will Malin Sjöberg Högrell be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Uppsala? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
5.4%
|
-29.9 pts | Probability Fade | 27/100 | 90 | → |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 14? Crypto · Polymarket |
35.0%
|
-4.5 pts | Watch | 47/100 | 10.0K | → |
| Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
90.0%
|
+4.0 pts | High Conviction | 42/100 | 9.3K | → |
| Will Ginger Murray be the WI-07 Democratic nominee? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
2.1%
|
-12.0 pts | Probability Fade | 44/100 | 9.0K | → |
| Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $296 Week of August 10 2026? Technology · Polymarket |
26.0%
|
+6.0 pts | Probability Surge | 39/100 | 1000 | → |
| Will Paloma Sánchez Ramos win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
35.5%
|
+18.0 pts | Probability Surge | 23/100 | 93 | → |
| Will María Elizabeth López Blanco win the 2027 Nayarit Governor Election? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
15.0%
|
-9.5 pts | Probability Fade | 29/100 | 100 | → |
| Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $307.50 Week of August 10 2026? Technology · Polymarket |
11.0%
|
+3.0 pts | Watch | 39/100 | 991 | → |
| Will Guillermo Romero Rodríguez win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
4.7%
|
-30.7 pts | Probability Fade | 25/100 | 93 | → |
| Will Viridiana Valencia Vargas win the 2027 Colima Governor Election? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
31.0%
|
-10.0 pts | Probability Surge | 27/100 | 90 | → |
| Will Depop - Buy & Sell Clothes be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on August 14? Technology · Polymarket |
4.1%
|
-24.3 pts | Probability Fade | 25/100 | 93 | → |
| Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $360 Week of August 10 2026? Technology · Polymarket |
4.0%
|
-4.5 pts | Probability Fade | 36/100 | 967 | → |
| Exact Score: Bucheon FC 1995 2 - 3 Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
26.0%
|
+23.3 pts | Probability Surge | 20/100 | 10 | → |
| Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $345 Week of August 10 2026? Technology · Polymarket |
12.5%
|
-4.0 pts | Watch | 39/100 | 966 | → |
| Will OpenAI have the greatest valuation growth in August 2026? Technology · Polymarket |
15.5%
|
+5.0 pts | Probability Surge | 33/100 | 959 | → |
| Exact Score: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 2 - 3 Deportivo Alavés? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
18.7%
|
-2.1 pts | Probability Fade | 21/100 | 9 | → |
| Will Juan de Dios Gámez Mendívil win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
17.5%
|
-14.0 pts | Probability Fade | 24/100 | 93 | → |
| Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31? Politics & Policy · Polymarket |
2.2%
|
+0.1 pts | Probability Fade | 55/100 | 99.3K | → |
No markets match those filters.
Method
How the rankings work
ProbabilityThe crowd’s current implied chance—not a guarantee or Sharemaestro forecast.
MomentumHow quickly the expectation is repricing over the latest 24 hours and seven days.
QualityEvidence strength based on participation, liquidity, spread and usable history.
Watch scoreA ranking of signal strength, quality, momentum, urgency and the latest probability move.