Prediction Market Pulse

Expectations vs Price Action.

498 relevant prediction markets are live. Strongest current theme: Crypto. Top signal: Probability Fade in Will Solana dip to $60 in June?.

Live markets 498
Signals 498
Freshness 2m
Autopilot Success
Dominant Theme Crypto 30/100

Will Solana dip to $60 in June?

Fast Repricing Politics & Policy +7.0 pts

Will the Democratic Party win the IA-03 House seat?

Expectation Fade Crypto -10.5 pts

Will Solana dip to $60 in June?

Crowd Conviction Crypto 85.2%

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6?

Theme pressure

Where expectations are concentrating

Polymarket 498
Crypto 30.3

61 markets · avg probability 29.7%

Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Geopolitics 28.5

26 markets · avg probability 14.3%

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Rates & Inflation 27.5

11 markets · avg probability 10.8%

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Energy 26.8

29 markets · avg probability 26.8%

Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Politics & Policy 24.1

288 markets · avg probability 30.2%

Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting? Technology 21.1

74 markets · avg probability 19.0%

Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $320 Week of June 1 2026? Economy 19.6

4 markets · avg probability 11.2%

Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be 9% or higher? Weather & Climate 11.1

5 markets · avg probability 46.9%

Halle Berry as Storm?
Opportunity map

Quality vs probability across all themes

The most useful markets usually sit toward the upper-right: stronger data quality and clearer implied probability.

Probability momentum

Top expectation moves

Signal tape

Highest priority markets

Crypto expectation is falling at 71.5%. 24h move -10.5 pts. 7d move -10.5 pts. Data quality 52/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

Crypto expectation is rising at 9.5%. 24h move +4.5 pts. 7d move +4.5 pts. Data quality 48/100.

Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 45.0%. 24h move -4.5 pts. 7d move -4.5 pts. Data quality 51/100.

Technology expectation is falling at 0.0%. 24h move -50.0 pts. 7d move -50.0 pts. Data quality 28/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

Crypto expectation is steady at 36.7%. 24h move +1.0 pts. 7d move +1.0 pts. Data quality 51/100.

Crypto expectation is steady at 1.8%. 24h move +0.6 pts. 7d move +0.6 pts. Data quality 54/100.

Crypto expectation is steady at 0.3%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move +0.0 pts. Data quality 55/100.

Politics & Policy expectation is rising at 72.0%. 24h move +7.0 pts. 7d move +7.0 pts. Data quality 28/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

Crypto expectation is steady at 85.2%. Data quality 53/100. Crowd conviction is high; surprise risk may sit in the opposite outcome.

Technology expectation is falling at 2.6%. 24h move -2.8 pts. 7d move -2.8 pts. Data quality 47/100.

Rates & Inflation expectation is steady at 0.4%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move +0.0 pts. Data quality 73/100.

Politics & Policy expectation is steady at 44.5%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move +0.0 pts. Data quality 55/100.

Crypto expectation is steady at 0.2%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move +0.0 pts. Data quality 47/100.

Crypto expectation is steady at 0.6%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move +0.0 pts. Data quality 46/100.

Crowd conviction

Highest implied probabilities

Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $50 on the final trading day of June 2026? Energy · Polymarket 98.9% Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Energy · Polymarket 98.1% Will anyone say "Jerry" during Rick and Morty E3 S9? Politics & Policy · Polymarket 98.0% Will North Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? Politics & Policy · Polymarket 97.7% Will Ken Calvert advance from the CA-40 primary election? Politics & Policy · Polymarket 97.7% Will Google (GOOGL) close above $350 on June 5? Technology · Polymarket 97.6%
Data quality

Most reliable market reads

Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Vol 10.0M · Liq 1.1M · Politics & Policy 73 Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Vol 9.7M · Liq 982.0K · Politics & Policy 73 Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Vol 9.4M · Liq 1.1M · Politics & Policy 73 Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Vol 9.4M · Liq 1.2M · Politics & Policy 73 Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Vol 9.1M · Liq 1.8M · Politics & Policy 73 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Vol 9.8M · Liq 858.1K · Rates & Inflation 73