Historical view
Probability and score through time
Average probability and signal score for this theme.
Energy markets · updated 58s ago
Energy prediction markets
Energy and commodity event risk
Oil, gas, OPEC, supply disruption, and energy-linked risk expectations for commodity and sector context.
8033 active Energy markets are being monitored. Highest-ranked read: Probability Surge at 99.8% in Iran successfully targets shipping by August 31, 2026?.
Active markets8033
Ranked signals8033
Kalshi8020
Polymarket13
Probability Surge
Iran successfully targets shipping by August 31, 2026?
Open market → Highest Probability 99.8%Energy
Iran successfully targets shipping by August 31, 2026?
Open market → Best Data Quality 65/100Polymarket
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?
Open market → Largest Move +72.3 ptsProbability Surge
Iran successfully targets shipping by August 31, 2026?
Open market →
Probability spectrum
Where the theme is priced
Active contracts grouped by implied-probability band.
Momentum breadth
Rising versus falling markets
Direction and combined magnitude of the latest market moves.
Evidence quality
How much support sits behind the prices
Markets grouped by signal-quality band.
Opportunity board
Markets with movement and support
Ranked by signal strength, quality, momentum, urgency and the latest probability move.
Watch score0–100
Repricing radar
What changed in Energy
The largest live expectation moves inside this theme.
Conviction
Highest probabilities
The outcomes currently priced as most likely.
Evidence
Best-supported markets
The strongest reads by market quality.
Fragile repricing
Large moves with weaker support
Potential overreactions where movement outruns market quality.
Tail-risk watch
Lower-probability outcomes with support
Potentially underappreciated outcomes ranked by quality, momentum and urgency.
Theme context
One contract can be noisy. A cluster can reveal the regime.
Use the theme view to compare independent markets, identify shared repricing, and avoid treating a single thin contract as consensus.