Theme Intelligence

Energy and commodity event risk

30 active Energy markets are being monitored. Highest-ranked read: Thin Market at 43.5% in WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on June 8?.

Oil, gas, OPEC, supply disruption, and energy-linked risk expectations for commodity and sector context.

Markets30

Signals30

Freshness1m

ThemeEnergy

Top Signal Thin Market 51

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on June 8?

Highest Probability Energy 98.9%

Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $50 on the final trading day of June 2026?

Best Data Quality Polymarket 64/100

Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

Largest Move Thin Market +9.5 pts

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on June 8?

Theme trend

Score and probability history

Market map

Quality vs probability

Theme probability momentum

Top expectation moves in Energy

Polymarket 30

Signal tape

Highest priority Energy markets

▲ WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on June 8? Polymarket · Thin Market Prob43.5% Quality15 Score51Source

Energy expectation is rising at 43.5%. 24h move +9.5 pts. 7d move +9.5 pts. Data quality 15/100. Treat as context only until liquidity improves.

→ Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Polymarket · Watch Prob5.2% Quality56 Score38Source

Energy expectation is steady at 5.2%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move +0.0 pts. Data quality 56/100.

▲ Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? Polymarket · Watch Prob62.0% Quality52 Score37Source

Energy expectation is steady at 62.0%. 24h move +1.5 pts. 7d move +1.5 pts. Data quality 52/100.

▼ Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Polymarket · Watch Prob2.7% Quality61 Score36Source

Energy expectation is steady at 2.7%. 24h move -0.6 pts. 7d move -0.6 pts. Data quality 61/100.

▲ Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Polymarket · High Conviction Prob98.1% Quality64 Score35Source

Energy expectation is steady at 98.1%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move +0.0 pts. Data quality 64/100. Crowd conviction is high; surprise risk may sit in the opposite outcome.

▲ Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Polymarket · Watch Prob11.3% Quality60 Score34Source

Energy expectation is steady at 11.2%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move +0.0 pts. Data quality 60/100.

▲ Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Polymarket · Watch Prob32.0% Quality54 Score33Source

Energy expectation is steady at 32.0%. 24h move +0.5 pts. 7d move +0.5 pts. Data quality 54/100.

→ Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran? Polymarket · Watch Prob0.1% Quality59 Score33Source

Energy expectation is steady at 0.1%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move +0.0 pts. Data quality 59/100.

▲ Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Polymarket · Watch Prob4.2% Quality57 Score32Source

Energy expectation is steady at 4.2%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move +0.0 pts. Data quality 57/100.

▼ Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30? Polymarket · Watch Prob2.0% Quality52 Score31Source

Energy expectation is steady at 2.0%. 24h move -0.2 pts. 7d move -0.2 pts. Data quality 52/100.

→ Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Polymarket · Watch Prob52.5% Quality54 Score31Source

Energy expectation is steady at 52.5%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move +0.0 pts. Data quality 54/100.

→ Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30? Polymarket · Watch Prob0.7% Quality50 Score29Source

Energy expectation is steady at 0.7%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move +0.0 pts. Data quality 50/100.

▼ WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on June 5? Polymarket · Watch Prob0.1% Quality39 Score29Source

Energy expectation is falling at 0.0%. 24h move -2.5 pts. 7d move -2.5 pts. Data quality 39/100.

▲ Will PPI YoY be between 7.0% and 7.9% in May? Polymarket · Watch Prob3.7% Quality39 Score28Source

Energy expectation is steady at 3.6%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move +0.0 pts. Data quality 39/100.