Energy and commodity event risk

▼ US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? Polymarket · Probability Fade Prob27.5% Quality56 Score60Source

Energy expectation is falling at 27.5%. 24h move -10.5 pts. 7d move -17.0 pts. Data quality 56/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

▲ Will Trump say "Oil," "Gas," or "Gasoline" during remarks in Georgia? Polymarket · Probability Surge Prob83.0% Quality35 Score59Source

Energy expectation is rising at 83.0%. 24h move +32.5 pts. 7d move +32.5 pts. Data quality 35/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

▼ US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? Polymarket · Probability Fade Prob35.5% Quality56 Score56Source

Energy expectation is falling at 35.5%. 24h move -11.0 pts. 7d move -11.0 pts. Data quality 56/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

▲ Will Chevron (CVX) Q2 oil-equivalent barrels per day net production (koebd) be above 4.0M? Polymarket · Probability Surge Prob55.0% Quality29 Score55Source

Energy expectation is rising at 55.0%. 24h move +22.0 pts. 7d move +8.0 pts. Data quality 29/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

▲ Iran successfully targets shipping on July 21? Polymarket · Probability Surge Prob59.0% Quality29 Score51Source

Energy expectation is rising at 59.0%. 24h move +9.0 pts. 7d move +9.0 pts. Data quality 29/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

▼ Will gas hit $3.70 (Low) by July 31? Polymarket · Probability Fade Prob19.5% Quality23 Score49Source

Energy expectation is falling at 19.5%. 24h move -37.5 pts. 7d move -37.0 pts. Data quality 23/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

▼ Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026? Polymarket · Probability Fade Prob0.6% Quality53 Score47Source

Energy expectation is falling at 0.6%. 24h move -6.4 pts. 7d move -6.4 pts. Data quality 53/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

▲ Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July? Polymarket · Probability Surge Prob17.4% Quality61 Score45Source

Energy expectation is rising at 17.4%. 24h move +0.2 pts. 7d move +12.4 pts. Data quality 61/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

▲ Iran successfully targets shipping by July 20? Polymarket · Probability Surge Prob89.5% Quality34 Score44Source

Energy expectation is rising at 89.5%. 24h move +17.0 pts. 7d move +17.0 pts. Data quality 34/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

▼ Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31? Polymarket · Probability Fade Prob23.5% Quality55 Score42Source

Energy expectation is falling at 23.5%. 24h move -5.0 pts. 7d move -10.0 pts. Data quality 55/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

▼ US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026? Polymarket · Watch Prob1.4% Quality53 Score40Source

Energy expectation is falling at 1.4%. 24h move -1.4 pts. 7d move -7.6 pts. Data quality 53/100.

▲ US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31? Polymarket · Watch Prob37.0% Quality55 Score39Source

Energy expectation is rising at 37.0%. 24h move +4.5 pts. 7d move +4.5 pts. Data quality 55/100.

▼ Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026? Polymarket · Watch Prob1.9% Quality54 Score38Source

Energy expectation is falling at 1.8%. 24h move -0.4 pts. 7d move -5.5 pts. Data quality 54/100.

▼ Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 Week of July 20 2026? Polymarket · Watch Prob17.5% Quality37 Score37Source

Energy expectation is falling at 17.5%. 24h move -4.0 pts. 7d move +3.0 pts. Data quality 37/100.