Commodity market intelligence · price, positioning and physical balance

Commodity prices, charts and market trends.

Commodity market state is mixed. 76.92% of tracked commodities have a positive Trend Signal, 26.92% have positive Relative Strength, and 65.38% have positive Market Dynamics. Precious Metals Commodity Index is currently the strongest group.

Read today's Commodities Report Open market architecture Positioning intelligence Cross-market relationships
Market architecture Broad advance 19 of 25 advanced across the retained market record
Tracked markets26completed daily evidence
Trend breadth77%20 positive
Relative leadership27%7 positive
Live broad move-separate delayed layer

How to read this

Research explainer

What it is

How to use it

Current context

Today’s commodity research desk

What matters in commodities today?

Start with the broad path, then narrow the evidence through positioning, supply, leadership and relationships before opening a possible setup.

Completed evidence through 2 Sep 2026
delayed observations remain separate
Current answer

The cleanest supply-and-price agreement is in Cotton; RBOB Gasoline is a confirmed leader under live test; Corn is the strongest live repair watch.

5 of 8 published supply balances are tightening. Full market agreement appears in 7 of 7 current relative leaders. Full agreement with the completed direction appears in 1 of 10 delayed moves. The clearest current test is RBOB Gasoline: its delayed pullback is testing an established leadership position.

Read today’s Commodities Report
01 · Market PathSupport is broad, but leadership is narrow

The index is 3.6% above Trend. Price and the completed trend state agree.

Open the broad market read → 02 · Positioning & SupplyPositioning offers a selective watchlist, not a broad commodity trade

Start with Trend and underlying support. Use extreme positioning to identify squeeze or unwind risk, and use weekly shifts to see where exposure is changing unusually fast. Enter the idea only when price confirms; stand aside when it does not.

Open positioning and supply → 03 · LeadershipEnergy lead the current group rotation; the next confirmation check is Grains

Use Energy as the first research queue and Grains as the next rotation check. Within each group, favour the constituents that hold positive Trend, relative leadership and Market Dynamics together. A strong group cannot rescue a weak individual contract.

Open group and contract leadership → 04 · RelationshipsThe energy family is the clearest shared move

A strong positive relationship can confirm a move but can also duplicate risk. A durable divergence can frame a relative-value watch, but it does not identify which side will close the gap. A changing or lead-and-follow relationship becomes useful only when the individual price evidence confirms it.

Open the relationship map → 05 · Setup DeskThe cleanest supply-and-price agreement is in Cotton; RBOB Gasoline is a confirmed leader under live test; Corn is the strongest live repair watch

A live move is only an alert. Give it more weight when completed Trend, relative leadership and underlying support agree, then use the physical balance and futures curve to identify whether immediate scarcity, carry or a conflicting horizon changes the risk.

Open possible setup paths →

First research checks

Where the evidence is asking for attention

Open the complete Setup Desk →
Physical and price agreementCotton has the cleanest supply-backed setup

Available supply is falling relative to use while Trend, leadership and underlying support are positive.

Open Cotton research →
Leader pullback testRBOB Gasoline is a confirmed leader facing a live pullback

The delayed move is -4.9%, but the latest completed Trend, relative leadership and underlying support remain positive.

Open RBOB Gasoline research →
Live repair watchCorn has physical support, but the live rise still needs proof

The delayed move is +2.4% and stocks-to-use are falling, yet completed relative leadership or Trend remains incomplete.

Open Corn research →

Primary market architecture

What is the commodity market doing beneath the headline?

The SM Commodity Market Index combines the broad price path with participation, trend condition and a completed-week perspective.

Through 2 Sep 2026
completed sessions only
Current index read

Support is broad, but leadership is narrow

The index is 3.6% above Trend. Price and the completed trend state agree. Market Dynamics is positive in 65% of markets, while only 27% are outperforming the broad index. This favours selection over a blanket commodity view.

Daily index and trend

The black line is the broad index. The Trend line changes colour as the completed structure strengthens, weakens or sits between states.

Show
IndexConstructive TrendMixed TrendWeak TrendFair Value
Research setup

Selective continuation, not a blanket long signal

The cleaner research setup is an individual commodity holding above Trend while its relative leadership improves. Broad index strength alone is not enough while leadership remains narrow.

What would confirm it

Relative leadership broadens and the index continues to hold above Trend.

What would weaken it

Avoid chasing markets already extended from Fair Value if participation or Market Dynamics starts to fade.

Confirmation beneath the index

Does the evidence below the headline agree?

Participation tests how widely the move is shared. Risk shows whether instability is isolated or spreading. Curves and physical balances test whether supply conditions support the price story.

Price asks the question first
the layers below test the answer
The question

Is the constructive index move broad, orderly and supported by supply conditions?

The answer

The move is broad, but relative leadership remains narrow

19 of 25 markets advanced across four completed weeks, Trend is positive in 77% and Market Dynamics in 65%. Only 27% are outperforming the broad commodity index. The group direction is constructive, but contract selection still matters because established leadership is concentrated.

Participation

How widely is the move shared?

The bars deliberately use different clocks. Together they show whether price direction is becoming broad, persistent and independently led.

Current readSupport is broad, but leadership is narrow

Market Dynamics is positive in 65% of markets, while only 27% are outperforming the broad index. This favours selection over a blanket commodity view.

Risk concentration

Is instability isolated or spreading?

Median volatility32.2%typical completed-week variability
Elevated risk10of 25 markets
Average linkage0.19current absolute co-movement
Highest current risk temperaturesposition in each market's own history
Corn100th0.0% from 52-week high
Wheat98th0.0% from 52-week high
Oats97th-4.7% from 52-week high
Soybeans95th0.0% from 52-week high
Cotton94th0.0% from 52-week high
Live Cattle94th-14.8% from 52-week high
Current readElevated in pockets, not one connected risk event

Volatility is elevated in 10 of 25 markets, but average linkage is only 0.19. Risk is concentrated in individual contracts rather than one tightly connected trade.

Term structure and supply

Does scarcity confirm the price move?

Largest observed curve slopesleft is front-loaded · right is carry-shaped
Crude Oil WTI-14.3%
Coffee-12.3%
Cotton5.4%
Sugar5.2%
Soybean Meal4.4%
Cocoa2.3%
Agriculture tightening5 of 8
Petroleum balanceMixed checksthrough 2026-08-28
Current readScarcity is selective rather than market-wide

6 of 10 observed curves slope upward and 3 slope downward. Immediate scarcity is present in pockets, not across the whole complex. Physical balances are tightening in 5 of 8 observed agricultural markets and easing in 1.

The index already told usSupport is broad, but leadership is narrow

The index is 3.6% above Trend. Price and the completed trend state agree.

The confirmation layer addsThe move is broad, but relative leadership remains narrow

The constructive read strengthens if four-week participation and relative leadership broaden. It weakens if Trend breadth falls while elevated-risk markets begin moving together.

How to use itUse the index for direction, then demand confirmation from the individual market

Start with the broad Trend as the backdrop. Give more weight to commodities that also show relative leadership, manageable risk and a curve or physical balance consistent with the price move. Avoid assuming every commodity shares the index story.

Commitments of Traders · weekly positioning

Is positioning confirming the setup or making it more fragile?

Price tells us what is happening. Positioning shows whether traders are crowded, changing exposure unusually quickly, or vulnerable to a squeeze or unwind.

Positions dated 2026-08-25
price evidence through 2 Sep 2026
The question

Is positioning confirming price or warning that traders are crowded?

The answer

Positioning offers a selective watchlist, not a broad commodity trade

Only 6 of 20 covered contracts are at speculative extremes and none shows a confirmed price-positioning divergence. That makes positioning useful for contract selection and risk control, but not as a broad directional call.

Covered contracts20complete weekly classifications
Balanced1470% of coverage
At an extreme630% of coverage
Price divergences0no broad reversal warning

Crowding map

Where could traders be forced to change course?

The outer edges identify potential fuel. The price label underneath tells us whether that fuel is supporting continuation, creating an unwind risk, or waiting for a squeeze trigger.

GrainsCorn100th percentile
Trend confirms; leadership is mixedPrice structure and underlying support are positive, but relative leadership is not.
Net exposure 15.6%Relative leadership -0.6Market Dynamics 1.00
GrainsSoybeans95th percentile
Trend confirms; leadership is mixedPrice structure and underlying support are positive, but relative leadership is not.
Net exposure 16.6%Relative leadership -3.1Market Dynamics 1.15
LivestockLean Hogs0th percentile
Pressure is improving; Trend has not confirmedUnderlying support is positive, but the completed Trend state is not yet active.
Net exposure -7.9%Relative leadership -23.2Market Dynamics 0.17
MetalsCopper95th percentile
Price does not confirmThe completed price evidence does not support a positioning-led reversal or continuation.
Net exposure 25.4%Relative leadership -1.8Market Dynamics -0.72
SoftsCotton94th percentile
Price fully confirmsTrend, relative leadership and underlying support are positive.
Net exposure 18.6%Relative leadership 9.9Market Dynamics 1.00
SoftsSugar90th percentile
Trend confirms; leadership is mixedPrice structure and underlying support are positive, but relative leadership is not.
Net exposure 13.0%Relative leadership -0.2Market Dynamics 0.22
Current readCotton is the most developed positioning angle

The price evidence still supports the move. A controlled pullback that holds Trend or renewed strength after consolidation offers a cleaner test than buying an extended move; a Trend failure would warn that crowded longs are unwinding.

Weekly change

Where did exposure move fastest?

These are changes in reported exposure, not same-day buying and selling. Opposing bars show disagreement that price still needs to resolve.

Producer / merchantManaged money← more net short · more net long →
Current readCorn carries the largest weekly repositioning

Producer and merchant exposure moved 5.52 percentage points more net short, while managed money moved 5.16 points more net long. Trend confirms; leadership is mixed. The change is evidence of repositioning, not a standalone forecast.

Current setup map

So, what is the angle?

These are research conditions to monitor. Each starts with price evidence and uses positioning to define the opportunity, the missing confirmation and the failure point.

Developed continuationMost developed

Cotton

Crowded strength is confirmed, but chasing is the risk

The price evidence still supports the move. A controlled pullback that holds Trend or renewed strength after consolidation offers a cleaner test than buying an extended move; a Trend failure would warn that crowded longs are unwinding.

Price fully confirms94th percentilePrice 2 Sep 2026
Open Cotton positioning research →
Conditional continuation

Corn

The uptrend survives, but confirmation is incomplete

Crowded long exposure raises unwind risk. Require relative leadership or stronger underlying support before treating continuation as dependable.

Trend confirms; leadership is mixed100th percentilePrice 2 Sep 2026
Open Corn positioning research →
Conditional continuation

Soybeans

The uptrend survives, but confirmation is incomplete

Crowded long exposure raises unwind risk. Require relative leadership or stronger underlying support before treating continuation as dependable.

Trend confirms; leadership is mixed95th percentilePrice 2 Sep 2026
Open Soybeans positioning research →
The page already told usSupport is broad, but leadership is narrow

The move is broad, but relative leadership remains narrow. The broad backdrop is constructive, but opportunity remains selective.

Positioning addsPositioning offers a selective watchlist, not a broad commodity trade

6 extremes and 0 price divergences keep the useful evidence at contract level rather than turning it into a broad market call.

How to use itUse positioning to refine a price setup, not to create one

Start with Trend and underlying support. Use extreme positioning to identify squeeze or unwind risk, and use weekly shifts to see where exposure is changing unusually fast. Enter the idea only when price confirms; stand aside when it does not.

COT reports classify Tuesday open interest. Producer and merchant exposure often reflects hedging needs; managed-money exposure can remain crowded for a long time. Neither group is treated as a forecast. The practical edge comes from asking whether current price evidence confirms, challenges or has not yet reacted to that positioning.

Commodity groups · completed daily evidence

Which groups have strength worth following?

A group move is more dependable when its index path, constituent participation, relative leadership and underlying support agree.

Through 2 Sep 2026
The question

Which commodity groups have strength broad enough to support a usable setup?

The answer

Energy lead the current group rotation; the next confirmation check is Grains

Energy changed +17.0% across 20 completed sessions, with positive Trend in 100% and positive Market Dynamics in 100% of constituents. Relative leadership is positive in 40%, so the group setup is constructive rotation rather than a blanket signal.

Current leaderEnergyConstructive rotation
Next rotation checkGrainsConstructive rotation
Weakest groupLivestockBroad weakness
Concentration check1 one-market groupread at contract level

Group rotation board

Performance tells us where to look. Internals tell us whether to trust it.

Rows are ordered for research attention, not expected return.

01
EnergyConstructive rotation4 of 5 advanced in the latest completed session
1 session0.6%
5 sessions5.4%
20 sessions17.0%
Trend100%
Leadership40%
Dynamics100%

The group is rising with broad underlying support, but established relative leaders remain selective.

Strongest: Heating Oil · Weakest: Natural Gas · Elevated risk: 3Open Energy analysis →
02
GrainsConstructive rotation0 of 8 advanced in the latest completed session
1 session-1.2%
5 sessions3.2%
20 sessions12.0%
Trend88%
Leadership38%
Dynamics100%

The group is rising with broad underlying support, but established relative leaders remain selective.

Strongest: KC HRW Wheat · Weakest: Soybean Meal · Elevated risk: 4Open Grains analysis →
03
SoftsRepair in progress2 of 5 advanced in the latest completed session
1 session-1.5%
5 sessions-0.4%
20 sessions3.7%
Trend60%
Leadership40%
Dynamics60%

Underlying support is improving before the group has established a dependable directional lead.

Strongest: Cocoa · Weakest: Orange Juice · Elevated risk: 1Open Softs analysis →
04
Industrial MetalsSingle-market signal0 of 1 advanced in the latest completed session
1 session-0.1%
5 sessions-1.4%
20 sessions-3.0%
Trend100%
Leadership0%
Dynamics0%

Copper is the whole retained group, so its strength cannot be treated as group breadth.

Strongest: Copper · Weakest: CopperOpen Industrial Metals analysis →
05
Precious MetalsMixed evidence3 of 4 advanced in the latest completed session
1 session0.7%
5 sessions-3.0%
20 sessions1.9%
Trend100%
Leadership0%
Dynamics0%

The group does not yet have enough agreement between performance, participation and underlying support.

Strongest: Silver · Weakest: Palladium · Elevated risk: 1Open Precious Metals analysis →
06
LivestockBroad weakness1 of 3 advanced in the latest completed session
1 session-0.4%
5 sessions-1.5%
20 sessions-10.8%
Trend0%
Leadership0%
Dynamics33%

Direction, relative leadership and underlying support are weak across most of the group.

Strongest: Live Cattle · Weakest: Lean Hogs · Elevated risk: 1Open Livestock analysis →
Performance: where capital is rotating now.
Trend: how much of the group shares the direction.
Leadership: how much of the group is beating the broad market.
Dynamics: whether underlying support agrees with price.

Group setup map

So, where is the group-level angle?

These are research queues, not automatic entries. Open the group dossier to identify the contracts that actually confirm the group story.

Most developed group watchFirst research queue

Energy

The path is constructive; leadership breadth is the missing confirmation

The group is rising with broad underlying support, but established relative leaders remain selective.

What confirms it
More constituents become relative leaders while the group holds its positive Trend.
What weakens it
The group loses Trend as Market Dynamics breadth begins to contract.
5 sessions 5.4%Trend 100%Leadership 40%Dynamics 100%
Open Energy group dossier →
Next rotation check

Grains

The path is constructive; leadership breadth is the missing confirmation

The group is rising with broad underlying support, but established relative leaders remain selective.

What confirms it
More constituents become relative leaders while the group holds its positive Trend.
What weakens it
The group loses Trend as Market Dynamics breadth begins to contract.
5 sessions 3.2%Trend 88%Leadership 38%Dynamics 100%
Open Grains group dossier →
Repair or avoid

Livestock

Stand aside until the group begins to repair

Direction, relative leadership and underlying support are weak across most of the group.

What confirms it
Market Dynamics improves first, followed by broader positive Trend evidence.
What weakens it
Continued weak Trend and support keep the group as an avoid rather than a reversal setup.
5 sessions -1.5%Trend 0%Leadership 0%Dynamics 33%
Open Livestock group dossier →
The broad market saidSupport is broad, but leadership is narrow

Group rotation shows where that broad backdrop is actually finding traction.

Positioning saidPositioning offers a selective watchlist, not a broad commodity trade

Use contract-level crowding only after the group and individual price evidence identify a credible path.

How to use itStart with Energy, then demand contract-level confirmation

Use Energy as the first research queue and Grains as the next rotation check. Within each group, favour the constituents that hold positive Trend, relative leadership and Market Dynamics together. A strong group cannot rescue a weak individual contract.

Cross-commodity relationships

Which commodities move together, and where is the useful split?

Completed weekly moves show which markets repeatedly share direction, which tend to move apart, and whether that behaviour is still visible now.

Relationships describe behaviour; they do not cause it
The questionWhich commodities usually move together, which move apart, and is that behaviour still visible?
The current answer

The energy family is the clearest shared move

7 of 12 durable pairs moved as their relationship normally implies in the latest completed week. All 12 retained durable links are same-direction relationships; 0 dependable inverse links currently qualify. That makes the map more useful for confirmation and exposure control than for finding a ready-made hedge.

Durable pairs12retained relationship map
Move together12durable same-direction pairs
Move apart0durable inverse pairs
Aligned now7/12latest completed week

Movement families

Where one position can behave like several

These are the clearest groups of commodities that repeatedly share direction.

Energy movement familyMostly aligned this weekAverage relationship 0.86
RBOB Gasoline4.2%Heating Oil-3.1%Crude Oil WTI-4.2%Brent Crude Oil-5.4%

These contracts have repeatedly shared direction. Multiple positions inside this family can behave like one larger exposure rather than independent ideas.

Precious metals movement familyMostly aligned this weekAverage relationship 0.78
Palladium5.9%Platinum-2.1%Gold-3.2%Silver-3.6%

These contracts have repeatedly shared direction. Multiple positions inside this family can behave like one larger exposure rather than independent ideas.

Grains movement familyRising together this weekAverage relationship 0.70
Soybean Meal6.5%Soybeans4.2%

These contracts have repeatedly shared direction. Multiple positions inside this family can behave like one larger exposure rather than independent ideas.

Relationship map

Do the strongest pairs move together or apart?

The centre means little dependable connection. The ends show stronger same- or opposite-direction behaviour.

Move apartIndependentMove together
Brent crude oil and WTI crude oilMoving together now
Brent Crude Oil moved -5.4% and Crude Oil WTI moved -4.2% in the latest completed week.
Brent crude oil and Heating oil / ULSDMoving together now
Brent Crude Oil moved -5.4% and Heating Oil moved -3.1% in the latest completed week.
Brent crude oil and GasolineMoving apart this week
Brent Crude Oil moved -5.4% and RBOB Gasoline moved +4.2% in the latest completed week.
Platinum and SilverMoving together now
Platinum moved -2.1% and Silver moved -3.6% in the latest completed week.
Gasoline and WTI crude oilMoving apart this week
RBOB Gasoline moved +4.2% and Crude Oil WTI moved -4.2% in the latest completed week.
Gasoline and Heating oil / ULSDMoving apart this week
RBOB Gasoline moved +4.2% and Heating Oil moved -3.1% in the latest completed week.
WTI crude oil and Heating oil / ULSDMoving together now
Crude Oil WTI moved -4.2% and Heating Oil moved -3.1% in the latest completed week.
Gold and SilverMoving together now
Gold moved -3.2% and Silver moved -3.6% in the latest completed week.

Relationships in transition

What is becoming more connected or more independent?

A fast change can reveal a new market regime, but it is an alert to investigate rather than a mature assumption.

New opposite-direction link-0.40

Copper and Heating oil / ULSD

OppositeIndependentTogether
Longer record 0.00Now -0.40

The pair is increasingly moving in opposite directions, but it is not yet dependable enough to assume a hedge.

Moving together instead in the latest completed week.
New same-direction link0.61

Oats and Wheat

OppositeIndependentTogether
Longer record 0.26Now 0.61

The pair is increasingly moving in the same direction, but the longer history does not yet confirm a durable family.

Moving together now in the latest completed week.
Direction has changed-0.32

Copper and Gasoline

OppositeIndependentTogether
Longer record 0.02Now -0.32

The pair has crossed from moving together to moving apart, or the reverse. Treat the new direction as provisional.

Moving opposite now in the latest completed week.
Relationship strengthening-0.25

Gasoline and Live cattle

OppositeIndependentTogether
Longer record 0.08Now -0.25

The recent co-movement is stronger than its longer history, so the pair deserves monitoring for a developing link.

Moving opposite now in the latest completed week.
New opposite-direction link-0.41

Feeder cattle and Soybeans

OppositeIndependentTogether
Longer record -0.11Now -0.41

The pair is increasingly moving in opposite directions, but it is not yet dependable enough to assume a hedge.

Moving opposite now in the latest completed week.
Relationship strengthening-0.29

Brent crude oil and Copper

OppositeIndependentTogether
Longer record 0.01Now -0.29

The recent co-movement is stronger than its longer history, so the pair deserves monitoring for a developing link.

Moving together instead in the latest completed week.

Observed sequencing

Did one market move before another?

The latest completed move is checked against recurring lead-and-follow order. This is a timing alert, never a forecast on its own.

Inverse relationshipPrevious sequence aligned
Leader nowNatural gas4.1%
1 week→
Direction to checkPlatinumLower

Natural Gas moved +4.1%. The retained sequence makes lower Platinum the direction to check over the next 1 completed week.

Open Natural gas →Open Platinum →
Inverse relationshipPrevious sequence aligned
Leader nowNatural gas4.1%
1 week→
Direction to checkSilverLower

Natural Gas moved +4.1%. The retained sequence makes lower Silver the direction to check over the next 1 completed week.

Open Natural gas →Open Silver →
Inverse relationshipPrevious sequence did not align
Leader nowNatural gas4.1%
1 week→
Direction to checkPalladiumLower

Natural Gas moved +4.1%. The retained sequence makes lower Palladium the direction to check over the next 1 completed week.

Open Natural gas →Open Palladium →
Positive relationshipPrevious sequence did not align
Leader nowCorn5.8%
4 weeks→
Direction to checkGoldHigher

Corn moved +5.8%. The retained sequence makes higher Gold the direction to check over the next 4 completed weeks.

Open Corn →Open Gold →
Positive relationshipPrevious sequence did not align
Leader nowWheat12.5%
1 week→
Direction to checkHeating oil / ULSDHigher

Wheat moved +12.5%. The retained sequence makes higher Heating Oil the direction to check over the next 1 completed week.

Open Wheat →Open Heating oil / ULSD →
Inverse relationshipPrevious sequence did not align
Leader nowLive cattle-1.7%
1 week→
Direction to checkBrent crude oilHigher

Live Cattle moved -1.7%. The retained sequence makes higher Brent Crude Oil the direction to check over the next 1 completed week.

Open Live cattle →Open Brent crude oil →

Relationship setup map

So, where is the angle?

The relationship identifies the research route. The individual commodity still has to confirm the trade direction.

Relative-value watchFirst relationship watch

RBOB Gasoline and Brent Crude Oil are testing a durable relationship

RBOB Gasoline moved +4.2% while Brent Crude Oil moved -5.4%. The gap is unusual enough to monitor, but the relationship alone cannot say which side will close it.

Possible route
A cleaner convergence case would require Brent Crude Oil to begin repairing while RBOB Gasoline holds its structure.
What rejects it
Continued separation, or weakening in RBOB Gasoline, would remove the long-laggard interpretation.
Open RBOB Gasoline →Open Brent Crude Oil →
Confirmation and exposure

Treat the energy family as one shared market theme

Mostly aligned this week. Its 4 retained members have the strongest durable internal relationship in the current map.

Possible route
Use agreement inside the family to confirm direction, then select the cleanest individual contract rather than duplicating the same exposure several times.
What rejects it
A widening split inside the family would weaken confirmation and make contract selection more important.
Open RBOB Gasoline →Open Heating Oil →
Developing relationship

Oats and Wheat are beginning to provide cross-market confirmation

New same-direction link. moving together now, which supports the observation without making it durable yet.

Possible route
Keep the pair on a confirmation watch. Repeated agreement across completed weeks would make the relationship more useful.
What rejects it
A quick return to independent or opposite movement would show that the recent link was temporary.
Open Oats →Open Wheat →
Lead-and-follow check

Natural gas puts Platinum on the next completed-week watch

Natural Gas moved +4.1%. The retained sequence makes lower Platinum the direction to check over the next 1 completed week.

Possible route
Use the move only as an alert. Require Platinum price and underlying support to confirm the lower direction.
What rejects it
A move in the opposite direction by Platinum rejects the historical sequence for this occurrence.
Open Natural Gas →Open Platinum →
The broad market saidSupport is broad, but leadership is narrow

That establishes the market backdrop, not the individual relationship.

The group map saidEnergy lead the current group rotation; the next confirmation check is Grains

Relationships show whether the selected contracts share a genuine theme or merely sit under the same label.

How to use itUse durable links for confirmation, divergence for a watchlist, and new links cautiously

A strong positive relationship can confirm a move but can also duplicate risk. A durable divergence can frame a relative-value watch, but it does not identify which side will close the gap. A changing or lead-and-follow relationship becomes useful only when the individual price evidence confirms it.

Market evidence and possible setups

Where does the evidence actually agree?

Supply, futures structure, completed leadership and the delayed tape answer different questions. This final section joins them without allowing one reading to override the others.

The question

Where do supply, futures structure, leadership and the delayed tape agree?

The answer nowThe cleanest supply-and-price agreement is in Cotton; RBOB Gasoline is a confirmed leader under live test; Corn is the strongest live repair watch.

5 of 8 published supply balances are tightening. Full market agreement appears in 7 of 7 current relative leaders. Full agreement with the completed direction appears in 1 of 10 delayed moves. The clearest current test is RBOB Gasoline: its delayed pullback is testing an established leadership position.

Physical balances5 / 8published agricultural balances tightening
Immediate supply premium3 / 10curves paying more for prompt supply
Confirmed leaders7 / 7leading markets with full completed support
Live agreement1 / 10delayed moves fully aligned with completed strength

Physical balance

Is supply getting tighter, and has price noticed?

A falling stocks-to-use reading means estimated available supply is shrinking relative to expected use. It becomes more useful when price Trend, relative leadership and underlying support agree.

Tighter balanceNo material changeEasier balance
tightening balanceCotton
-5.2pp
Current stocks-to-use56.7%
Tightening confirmed by price

Available supply is falling relative to use while Trend, leadership and underlying support are positive.

Trend positiveLeadership positiveSupport positive
tightening balanceRough Rice
-1.4pp
Current stocks-to-use35.7%
Tightening confirmed by price

Available supply is falling relative to use while Trend, leadership and underlying support are positive.

Trend positiveLeadership positiveSupport positive
tightening balanceWheat
-1.0pp
Current stocks-to-use33.2%
Tightening confirmed by price

Available supply is falling relative to use while Trend, leadership and underlying support are positive.

Trend positiveLeadership positiveSupport positive
tightening balanceCorn
-2.0pp
Current stocks-to-use20.9%
Tightening; leadership still missing

The physical balance and price structure are constructive, but the contract is not yet outperforming the broad commodity market.

Trend positiveLeadership missingSupport positive
tightening balanceSoybeans
-1.0pp
Current stocks-to-use28.1%
Tightening; leadership still missing

The physical balance and price structure are constructive, but the contract is not yet outperforming the broad commodity market.

Trend positiveLeadership missingSupport positive
easing balanceSugar
0.5pp
Current stocks-to-use24.6%
Price strength faces an easing balance

Price remains constructive while available supply is rising relative to use. The disagreement raises continuation risk.

Trend positiveLeadership missingSupport positive
stable balanceOats
-0.1pp
Current stocks-to-use14.6%
Physical balance broadly stable

The latest supply estimate adds little directional pressure, so price and leadership should carry more weight.

Trend positiveLeadership missingSupport positive
easing balanceCoffee
0.6pp
Current stocks-to-use14.6%
Easing balance

Available supply is rising relative to use and price has not established a conflicting bullish structure.

Trend not confirmedLeadership missingSupport weak

Futures structure

Is the market paying more for supply now or later?

The curve distinguishes immediate supply pressure from the cost of carrying supply into later months. It changes the risk around a price setup; it does not replace the price setup.

Immediate supply premiumNear flatDeferred supply premium
Crude Oil WTIImmediate supply premium
-14.3%
Immediate supply premium; leadership missing

Prompt supply carries a premium and price structure is positive, but relative leadership remains incomplete.

CoffeeImmediate supply premium
-12.3%
Supportive curve; price incomplete

The curve points to prompt tightness, but current price evidence does not fully confirm the opportunity.

CottonDeferred supply premium
5.4%
Price is overcoming the carry headwind

Deferred supply is priced above prompt supply, yet the completed Trend, leadership and underlying support remain positive.

SugarDeferred supply premium
5.2%
Trend is overcoming carry; leadership is incomplete

Price structure is constructive despite an upward curve, but the contract is not yet a broad relative leader.

Soybean MealDeferred supply premium
4.4%
Trend is overcoming carry; leadership is incomplete

Price structure is constructive despite an upward curve, but the contract is not yet a broad relative leader.

CocoaDeferred supply premium
2.3%
Price is overcoming the carry headwind

Deferred supply is priced above prompt supply, yet the completed Trend, leadership and underlying support remain positive.

SoybeansDeferred supply premium
2.3%
Trend is overcoming carry; leadership is incomplete

Price structure is constructive despite an upward curve, but the contract is not yet a broad relative leader.

GoldDeferred supply premium
1.9%
Carry headwind

The upward curve does not support a prompt-scarcity case; price must do more work before the setup becomes convincing.

Natural GasImmediate supply premium
-1.3%
Immediate supply premium; leadership missing

Prompt supply carries a premium and price structure is positive, but relative leadership remains incomplete.

Soybean OilNear flat
-0.9%
Curve is near flat

The futures structure adds little directional edge, leaving price and leadership as the main evidence.

Completed relative leadership

Which commodities are outperforming with genuine support?

Relative leadership answers “strong compared with what?” Every contract below is outperforming the broad SM Commodity Market Index; the confirmation label shows whether Trend and underlying support agree.

01
Heating OilConfirmed relative leader
RS 22.0Live -4.0% 02
KC HRW WheatConfirmed relative leader
RS 20.1Live -0.6% 03
RBOB GasolineConfirmed relative leader
RS 19.5Live -4.9% 04
WheatConfirmed relative leader
RS 14.2Live -1.2% 05
Rough RiceConfirmed relative leader
RS 12.1Live 2.8% 06
CocoaConfirmed relative leader
RS 10.4No current delayed quote 07
CottonConfirmed relative leader
RS 9.9No current delayed quote

Delayed live tape

Does today’s move confirm the completed evidence or challenge it?

The largest delayed moves are ranked by magnitude, then tested against the latest completed Trend, leadership and underlying support. They are alerts for the next completed session, not changes to the research record.

Largest declines0Largest advances
OatsLive move supports Trend; leadership is missing
6.55%

The move has completed structure behind it, but it has not yet become broad relative leadership. Physical balance stable.

RBOB GasolineEstablished leader under live test
-4.91%

The delayed decline challenges a confirmed leader. It becomes more important only if completed Trend or support subsequently fails.

Heating OilEstablished leader under live test
-3.96%

The delayed decline challenges a confirmed leader. It becomes more important only if completed Trend or support subsequently fails.

Soybean MealLive move supports Trend; leadership is missing
2.89%

The move has completed structure behind it, but it has not yet become broad relative leadership. Deferred supply premium.

Rough RiceLive move confirms completed strength
2.76%

The delayed move is travelling in the same direction as established Trend, leadership and underlying support. Physical balance tightening.

PalladiumLive bounce without completed support
2.55%

The delayed rise is not backed by the completed evidence and should not be treated as a developed setup.

CornLive move supports Trend; leadership is missing
2.41%

The move has completed structure behind it, but it has not yet become broad relative leadership. Physical balance tightening.

GoldLive bounce without completed support
2.38%

The delayed rise is not backed by the completed evidence and should not be treated as a developed setup. Deferred supply premium.

SilverLive bounce without completed support
2.26%

The delayed rise is not backed by the completed evidence and should not be treated as a developed setup.

Crude Oil WTILive move supports Trend; leadership is missing
1.74%

The move has completed structure behind it, but it has not yet become broad relative leadership. Immediate supply premium.

Possible setup paths

So, where is the angle?

These are research routes, ordered by evidence agreement. Each one states what must happen next and what would reject the idea.

Physical and price agreementStrongest evidence agreement

Cotton has the cleanest supply-backed setup

Available supply is falling relative to use while Trend, leadership and underlying support are positive.

Possible route
Favour a controlled continuation or pullback that holds completed Trend while leadership and underlying support remain positive.
What rejects it
A loss of Trend or leadership despite the tightening balance would show that price is no longer responding to the physical support.
Additional context
Price is overcoming the carry headwind
Open Cotton research →
Leader pullback test

RBOB Gasoline is a confirmed leader facing a live pullback

The delayed move is -4.9%, but the latest completed Trend, relative leadership and underlying support remain positive.

Possible route
Treat the decline as a test, not an automatic reversal. A completed hold of Trend with support intact would preserve the leadership case.
What rejects it
A completed Trend failure accompanied by weaker underlying support would turn the pullback into a leadership warning.
Additional context
No additional physical or curve confirmation is retained.
Open RBOB Gasoline research →
Live repair watch

Corn has physical support, but the live rise still needs proof

The delayed move is +2.4% and stocks-to-use are falling, yet completed relative leadership or Trend remains incomplete.

Possible route
Let the move complete. A positive completed session followed by improving leadership would turn the repair into a more credible continuation case.
What rejects it
A reversal of the live move or renewed relative weakness would leave the physical backdrop unexpressed in price.
Additional context
physical balance tightening
Open Corn research →
Conflicting supply clocks

Coffee has prompt tightness but an easing broader balance

The futures curve prices immediate supply at a premium while the published stock balance is becoming less tight. Both can be true over different horizons.

Possible route
Let completed price leadership decide which clock is dominant. A strong Trend with improving leadership favours prompt tightness; fading price support favours the easing balance.
What rejects it
Do not treat either dataset as a standalone directional call while the two horizons disagree.
Additional context
Supportive curve; price incomplete
Open Coffee research →
The index saidSupport is broad, but leadership is narrow

The broad market establishes the backdrop.

The group map saidEnergy lead the current group rotation; the next confirmation check is Grains

Groups narrow the opportunity set.

The relationship map saidThe energy family is the clearest shared move

Relationships expose shared moves and duplicated risk.

How to use the final checkStart with completed leadership, then use supply and the curve to test the reason for the move

A live move is only an alert. Give it more weight when completed Trend, relative leadership and underlying support agree, then use the physical balance and futures curve to identify whether immediate scarcity, carry or a conflicting horizon changes the risk.

Sources are retained on their own clocks: completed and delayed market observations, CFTC Commitments of Traders, EIA petroleum data, USDA production and stocks, and validated futures curves. Positioning normally reflects Tuesday holdings published Friday; holidays can delay release. Correlation, curve shape and historical event studies are descriptive and can change. No single layer is allowed to overwrite the others.

Evidence context