Wait for repair rather than anticipate it
A stronger research setup would require the index to reclaim Trend with broader participation. Until then, relative winners are more informative than the broad index.
Commodity group research desk · completed-session evidence
Livestock Commodity Index prices, charts and trends
Livestock Commodity Index latest closed daily value (2 Sep 2026) is 1,884.59 with daily return -0.39%. Lean Hogs leads the group on the latest daily return. The index is 6.7% below Trend. A durable repair has not yet been confirmed. Only 0% of markets have positive Trend evidence. Isolated winners may not describe the wider complex.
Current group readBroad weaknessDirection, relative leadership and underlying support are weak across most of the group.
Latest index1884.592 Sep 2026
Session return-0.39%completed daily value
Trend breadth0%0 of 3 commodities
Underlying support33%1 of 3 commodities
Primary group architecture
What is this group doing beneath the headline?
The group index establishes direction. Participation, extension and the completed-week view show whether that direction is broad, stretched and persistent.
Through 2 Sep 2026
completed sessions only
completed sessions only
Current group read
Participation is too narrow for a dependable broad move
The index is 6.7% below Trend. A durable repair has not yet been confirmed. Only 0% of markets have positive Trend evidence. Isolated winners may not describe the wider complex.
Daily group index and Trend
The black line is the group index. The Trend line changes colour as the completed structure strengthens, weakens or sits between states.
Show
IndexConstructive TrendMixed TrendWeak TrendFair Value
Group participation through time
The lines show the share of this group's contracts with positive Trend, Relative Strength and Market Dynamics on each completed session.
Positive TrendRelative leadershipPositive Market Dynamics
Distance from Trend and Fair Value
Zero means the group index is at the reference. Positive readings are above it; negative readings are below it.
Distance from TrendDistance from Fair Value
Completed-week group path
One point per completed week removes daily noise and tests whether the group move is persisting.
Weekly indexTrendFair Value
The index reclaims Trend and more markets show positive Trend and Market Dynamics.
Discount to Fair Value on its own is not evidence that the broad market has turned.
Inside the group
Is the move broad, orderly and supported?
Shows how many commodities share the move, where risk is concentrated, and whether futures curves and supply data support the price direction.
The question
Is the constructive index move broad, orderly and supported by supply conditions?
The answer
The index move lacks dependable confirmation
Only 0% of markets have positive Trend evidence and 0% advanced across four completed weeks. Individual strength should not be treated as a broad commodity signal.
Participation
How much of the group agrees?
Direction is more dependable when the group index and its individual commodities improve together.
Current readParticipation is too narrow for a dependable broad move
Only 0% of markets have positive Trend evidence. Isolated winners may not describe the wider complex.
Risk concentration
Is instability isolated or shared?
High volatility in one contract is a selection risk. High volatility across tightly linked contracts is a broader group warning.
Median volatility19.7%typical group variability
Elevated risk1of 3 markets
Average linkage0.26current co-movement
Current readRisk remains comparatively orderly
Risk conditions are comparatively orderly across the retained market set.
Supply structure
Does scarcity support the move?
Curves show the balance between prompt and deferred supply. Published balances add a slower physical check where available.
0 front-loaded0 mixed0 carry-shaped
No validated group curve is currently retained.
Current readSupply evidence is mixed
Curve evidence is mixed and does not provide a single broad scarcity signal.
The index is 6.7% below Trend. A durable repair has not yet been confirmed.
The constructive read strengthens if four-week participation and relative leadership broaden. It weakens if Trend breadth falls while elevated-risk markets begin moving together.
Start with the broad Trend as the backdrop. Give more weight to commodities that also show relative leadership, manageable risk and a curve or physical balance consistent with the price move. Avoid assuming every commodity shares the index story.
Constituent leadership
Which contracts are driving the group, and which are not?
The latest session is ranked beside Trend, relative leadership and Market Dynamics. A leader with all three is more useful than the largest percentage move alone.
01
livestock
Lean Hogs
Only one market check is positive.
0.15%latest completed session
TrendLeadershipSupport
02livestock
Feeder Cattle
Trend, leadership and underlying support are not positive together.
-0.43%latest completed session
TrendLeadershipSupport
03livestock
Live Cattle
Trend, leadership and underlying support are not positive together.
-0.90%latest completed session
TrendLeadershipSupport
Stand aside until the group begins to repair
Direction, relative leadership and underlying support are weak across most of the group.
Market Dynamics improves first, followed by broader positive Trend evidence.
Continued weak Trend and support keep the group as an avoid rather than a reversal setup.
Commitments of Traders · weekly positioning
Is positioning confirming price or making the group fragile?
Positioning identifies crowding and unusual weekly changes. Price still decides whether that creates continuation, squeeze or unwind risk.
Positions dated 2026-08-25
The question
Is positioning confirming price or warning that traders are crowded?
The answer
Positioning offers a selective watchlist, not a broad commodity trade
Only 1 of 3 covered contracts are at speculative extremes and none shows a confirmed price-positioning divergence. That makes positioning useful for contract selection and risk control, but not as a broad directional call.
Covered contracts3complete weekly records
Balanced267% of coverage
At an extreme1potential squeeze or unwind fuel
Price divergences0confirmed warnings
Current positioning map
Lean Hogs is the most developed positioning angle
Extreme shorts create fuel for a rebound, but they are not a reason to catch a falling market. A positive Trend state and improving relative leadership would turn the watch into a more credible squeeze setup.
Largest weekly shifts
Live Cattle carries the largest weekly repositioning
Producer and merchant exposure moved 2.90 percentage points more net long, while managed money moved 2.11 points more net short. Price does not confirm. The change is evidence of repositioning, not a standalone forecast.
Live Cattle
2.90pp-2.11pp
Price does not confirmFeeder Cattle
2.43pp-1.96pp
Price does not confirmLean Hogs
0.99pp-1.92pp
Pressure is improving; Trend has not confirmedRelationships inside the group
Which contracts usually move together, and is that still happening?
Durable relationships can confirm a shared group move or reveal duplicated exposure. A broken relationship is a watch condition, not an automatic convergence trade.
The question
Which commodities usually move together, which move apart, and is that behaviour still visible?
The answer
The livestock family is the clearest shared move
1 of 1 durable pairs moved as their relationship normally implies in the latest completed week. All 1 retained durable links are same-direction relationships; 0 dependable inverse links currently qualify. That makes the map more useful for confirmation and exposure control than for finding a ready-made hedge.
Durable links
Shared movement that still matters
Feeder cattle and Live cattle0.66
Usually move together · Moving together now. Feeder Cattle moved -4.1% and Live Cattle moved -1.7% in the latest completed week.
Lead and follow
Possible next completed-week checks
Leadership without an assumed sequence
No stable order is active. The current group should be read from simultaneous price and participation evidence.
Use durable links for confirmation, divergence for a watchlist, and new links cautiously
A strong positive relationship can confirm a move but can also duplicate risk. A durable divergence can frame a relative-value watch, but it does not identify which side will close the gap. A changing or lead-and-follow relationship becomes useful only when the individual price evidence confirms it.
Treat the livestock family as one shared market theme
Use agreement inside the family to confirm direction, then select the cleanest individual contract rather than duplicating the same exposure several times.
Livestock Commodity Index setup desk
The clearest group setup now
Start with the group direction, then check whether an individual commodity has enough support to act as a useful watch.
Stand aside until the group begins to repair
Direction, relative leadership and underlying support are weak across most of the group.
Specialist evidence is selective rather than broadly aligned
Full agreement with the completed direction appears in 0 of 3 delayed moves. No contract has enough agreement for a developed setup, so the group direction remains the main guide.
Wait for repair rather than anticipate it
A stronger research setup would require the index to reclaim Trend with broader participation. Until then, relative winners are more informative than the broad index.
- What to watch
- The index reclaims Trend and more markets show positive Trend and Market Dynamics.
- What would weaken it
- Discount to Fair Value on its own is not evidence that the broad market has turned.
Selection rulePrefer the commodity with completed leadership and support
A large delayed move is an alert. The completed market readings decide whether it belongs on the watchlist.
Next checkStart with completed leadership, then use supply and the curve to test the reason for the move
Compare the group constituentsA live move is only an alert. Give it more weight when completed Trend, relative leadership and underlying support agree, then use the physical balance and futures curve to identify whether immediate scarcity, carry or a conflicting horizon changes the risk.
Latest completed session
Every commodity in Livestock Commodity Index
Open any market for its full price, positioning, futures curve, supply and technical research.