Commodity price, positioning and supply
Gold price, chart and market analysis
The latest completed close is 4,348.00 USD per troy ounce. The Trend Signal is active, Relative Strength is -13.0 and Market Dynamics is -0.08. This week is -2.9% through 2 completed sessions; across 20 sessions, price changed +6.2%.
Current market stateUpward trend, mixed support1 readings support the move; 5 do not
Completed close4,348.00USD per troy ounce · 1 Sep 2026
Live delayed price4475.40Observed 3 Sep, 06:35
Relative strength-12.97versus commodity benchmark
Risk temperature85volatility percentile in own history
Gold current setup
Gold is trending upward, but Market Dynamics is not yet positive.
Shows the latest price direction and whether relative performance, market pressure, positioning and supply support it.Current market read
The latest completed close is 4,348.00 USD per troy ounce. The Trend Signal is active, Relative Strength is -13.0 and Market Dynamics is -0.08. This week is -2.9% through 2 completed sessions; across 20 sessions, price changed +6.2%.
Caution remains dominant. The setup improves when the main readings point the same way and weakens when they move apart.
Readings supporting the move71%
1 support the move · 5 do not
This week against the previous week
The market is extending a second week of completed pressure.
Price is -2.91% across 2 completed sessions this week. The previous completed week returned -3.16%. The market is +1.83 percentage points versus its group this week.
This week-2.91%2 completed sessions
Previous week-3.16%5 completed sessions
Daily balance0/2up / down sessions
Versus group1.83ppthis week's relative move
What supports the move, and what does not?
Green supports the current price path. Red works against it. Amber is not yet clear.
Where price sits against its two structural references
The close confirms direction. Trend is the active structural guide. Fair Value shows longer-run extension.
Fair Value4,573.25Trend4,318.96Close4,348.00
Vs Trend 0.7%Vs Fair Value -4.9%
Possible setup
Trend with a confirmation gap
Price is trending upward, but not every market measure supports the move. The setup improves if the weaker reading turns positive.
- What would confirm it?
- A completed close that holds above 4318.96 USD per troy ounce, with Market Dynamics positive and relative strength above zero.
- What would invalidate it?
- A completed loss of 4318.96 USD per troy ounce alongside weakening Market Dynamics.
- How should risk be treated?
- Volatility ranks at percentile 85 of its three-year history. Treat any setup as high-temperature and scale risk accordingly.
No extreme positioning edge
Use the weekly change as confirmation, but let completed price structure and Market Dynamics determine direction.
Ranked 2 of 4 in Precious Metals
The market's 20-session move is +6.2% versus +3.0% for its group.
Physical support must agree with traded structure
The curve is upward sloping. A supportive balance without price confirmation is potential, not a completed setup.
Silver is the clearest current confirmation market
The 52-week return correlation is +0.82. A matching move adds context; a divergence may indicate a relative-value move rather than a broad group signal. The strongest retained macro link is Financial conditions at -0.41, but it remains descriptive and can change.
GLD is not confirming the commodity structure
The fund moved -3.4% in its latest completed week, a -0.3 percentage-point gap versus the commodity. For a listed-fund expression, require the fund's own completed Trend Signal and Market Dynamics to agree with the futures thesis.
Confirmation would favour trend continuation or a completed repair rather than an anticipatory entry.
The market stays on watch; patience preserves the edge because there is no need to force a direction.
The setup weakens and the defensive interpretation takes priority until a new completed repair develops.
Price path
Is the move supported beneath the surface?
Shows price direction, shorter-term pressure, the longer-term value reference and support beneath price.1 day-1.88%
This week-2.91%
Previous week-3.16%
5 days-6.25%
20 days6.17%
1 year25.17%
Vs Trend0.67%directional extension
Vs Fair Value-4.93%longer-run extension
Is price holding an established direction?
The black line is the completed close. Trend changes colour as the structure strengthens, weakens or remains mixed. Fair Value is the slower reference.
CloseSupportive TrendMixed TrendWeakening TrendFair ValueCurrent week
Is the move gaining force or losing support?
Momentum describes speed. Market Dynamics describes support beneath price. Agreement is stronger evidence than either reading alone.
Momentum
Market Dynamics
Is Gold leading or lagging the wider commodity market?
Above zero means the commodity is outperforming the broad benchmark. Below zero means it is lagging. A turn toward zero can reveal repair before outright leadership returns.
LeadingLaggingBenchmark
Did participation expand with the move?
Daily return bars show direction. The blue line compares volume with its recent normal level. Strong moves on rising participation deserve more attention than isolated low-volume changes.
Up sessionDown sessionVolume versus normal
Does the daily move fit the slower weekly structure?
One completed observation per week reduces daily noise. Use it to judge whether the current move is part of a durable path or only a short-term interruption.
Weekly closeSupportive TrendMixed TrendWeakening TrendFair Value
Price is above its completed Trend Line
The completed close is +0.7% from the Trend Line. The 20-session path is +6.2%.
Underlying pressure remains cautious
Market Dynamics is -0.08 and changed -0.57 in the latest completed session.
Balanced
Managed-money exposure ranks at percentile 73 of its three-year history and changed -2.51 percentage points of open interest in the latest report.
Upward sloping
The validated front-to-deferred slope is +1.9% across 5 months.
Technical depth
Where is the pressure, and what could change next?
Mixed structure. Momentum is negative, the latest impulse is negative or fading, and directional evidence describes a strong directional trend.Price structureMixed structurecompleted-session alignment
Momentum47.1Negative
Volatility1.8%percentile 45
Directional strength25.9Strong directional trend
Participation16%of typical session volume
ImpulseNegative or fadingmomentum spread versus signal
Historically adverse
Week 36 · median pressure -0.01% across the retained history.
25 Mar - 21 Apr
Median four-week pressure 10.20% with 83% directional agreement.
13 May - 9 Jun
Median four-week pressure -5.42% with 67% directional agreement.
Seasonal pressure
When has this market usually strengthened or weakened?
Median completed-week pressure with directional agreement across retained cycles. Seasonality is context, never a standalone forecast.
Turning-point anatomy
How have prior peaks and troughs developed?
Event-aligned paths show the typical approach to and resolution from retained turning points.
Price architecture
Trend and volatility envelope
Price location relative to adaptive trend references and its recent volatility envelope.
Momentum oscillator
RSI and stochastic pressure
Two independent oscillators show whether directional pressure is broadening, fading or becoming stretched.
Impulse
MACD expansion and rollover
The spread between faster and slower price pressure shows acceleration, deceleration and signal-line crossings.
Risk geometry
Range pressure and envelope width
Normalised true range and envelope width distinguish ordinary movement from volatility expansion.
Market participation
Volume pressure and cumulative balance
Current volume is compared with its recent norm while cumulative balance tracks whether activity accompanies rising or falling closes.
Trend quality
Directional movement and ADX
Directional movement separates upward and downward pressure; ADX measures trend strength without assigning direction.
Commitments of Traders
Is positioning confirming price, creating squeeze fuel, or warning of an unwind?
Trader groups are read separately. The useful information is how unusual exposure is, how it changed, and whether price is rewarding that positioning.Managed money net exposure is 23.5% of open interest and is currently classified balanced.
Long positions increased, while short positions also rose or held firm.
The latest producer move is ordinary, not a standalone signal Its magnitude ranks at percentile 4 of retained weekly shifts. The strongest retained horizon is 4 weeks, with 33% directional alignment across 6 independent samples.
No material commercial-price separation Positioning becomes more useful when the price path and underlying pressure agree.
Managed-money and commercial net positioning
The upper chart shows each group's net position as a share of open interest. The lower chart shows participation and, where available, whether the largest traders dominate the market.
Managed money netProducer / merchant netOpen interest
What changed inside exposure?
Two-way risk is building; long exposure added faster
Long exposure changed +0.94 percentage points of open interest; short exposure changed +0.10 points.
Long exposure added or removedShort exposure added or coveredNo change
Producer-shift interpretation
The latest producer move is ordinary, not a standalone signal
Its magnitude ranks at percentile 4 of retained weekly shifts. The strongest retained horizon is 4 weeks, with 33% directional alignment across 6 independent samples. The sample is too small and inconsistent to treat producer hedging as a forecast. Use it as a warning or confirmation layer beside price, never as the trade by itself.
- Independent cases
- 6
- Median market move
- 3.7%
- Moved with shift
- 33%
- Independent cases
- 6
- Median market move
- 11.9%
- Moved with shift
- 33%
- Independent cases
- 5
- Median market move
- 16.3%
- Moved with shift
- 20%
COT describes Tuesday positions and is normally published Friday. Producer and merchant positions mainly reflect business hedging; they are not treated as a single directional opinion. Contract rolls, classification changes and the publication delay all matter.
Supply and carry
Does the physical market support the price story?
The futures curve describes how the market prices time. Published balances describe the inventory cushion. Neither is allowed to overwrite completed price evidence.Upward sloping
The front-to-deferred slope is 1.9% across 5 months. This describes current scarcity and carry pressure, not guaranteed price direction.
No comparable balance
No synthetic inventory estimate is introduced. The absence is shown rather than filled with a weak proxy.
Demand agreement, not a standalone signal
When price, the curve and physical balances point the same way, the case has broader support. When they disagree, wait for the completed price trigger and treat the physical story as a question still being answered.
Futures curve
Scarcity, carry and term structure
Upward sloping across the validated expiry window.
2026-09-03
Front-to-deferred curve
Front4408.75
Deferred4491.05
Slope1.9%
Span5m
Completed-week risk path
Drawdown and volatility regime
Price retreat from its rolling high is paired with realised volatility to distinguish orderly repricing from unstable stress.
155 completed weeks
Drawdown from rolling highRealised volatility
Current drawdown-14.4%
Realised volatility23.8%
Volatility percentile85
Risk stateElevated stress
Relative value
Is Gold moving on its own or as part of a wider trade?
Ratios compare one market with another; correlations show whether completed returns have tended to travel together. Both can change and neither proves causality.Silver is the clearest current confirmation market
The 52-week return correlation is +0.82. A matching move adds context; a divergence may indicate a relative-value move rather than a broad group signal. The strongest retained macro link is Financial conditions at -0.41, but it remains descriptive and can change.
Use related markets to confirm or challenge the thesis; do not use correlation alone as the entry trigger.Gold / silver
66.84 · historical percentile 184 weeks-4.9%13 weeks10.8%Historical percentile18
How many troy ounces of silver equal one troy ounce of gold by price. Low in its three-year range.
Gold / oil
53.69 · historical percentile 754 weeks12.3%13 weeks2.9%Historical percentile75
How many barrels of WTI one troy ounce of gold represents. Near the middle of its three-year range.
Copper relative to gold
74.90 · historical percentile 374 weeks-7.8%13 weeks5.1%Historical percentile37
Relative performance, rebased to 100 at the first visible completed week. Near the middle of its three-year range.
Platinum / gold
0.41 · historical percentile 564 weeks1.2%13 weeks-2.1%Historical percentile56
Platinum's price relative to gold on the same troy-ounce basis. Near the middle of its three-year range.
Precious Metals rotation
Twenty completed sessions show whether Gold is leading or lagging its closest commodity peers.
Current cross-market checks
Silver0.82Strong positive · longer 0.77
Platinum0.70Strong positive · longer 0.60
Palladium0.65Strong positive · longer 0.48
Copper0.48Positive · longer 0.36
Heating oil / ULSD-0.35Inverse · longer -0.11
Gasoline-0.29Weak or independent · longer -0.04
Brent crude oil-0.27Weak or independent · longer -0.04
Soybeans0.22Weak or independent · longer 0.18
Related markets and listed routes
How can the futures read be checked or followed elsewhere?
Related commodities, macro factors and listed funds can confirm or challenge the thesis. They introduce different risks and are never assumed to track perfectly.Silver is the clearest current confirmation market
The 52-week return correlation is +0.82. A matching move adds context; a divergence may indicate a relative-value move rather than a broad group signal. The strongest retained macro link is Financial conditions at -0.41, but it remains descriptive and can change.
GLD is not confirming the commodity structure
The fund moved -3.4% in its latest completed week, a -0.3 percentage-point gap versus the commodity. For a listed-fund expression, require the fund's own completed Trend Signal and Market Dynamics to agree with the futures thesis.
The instrument must confirm the research
Commodity funds can differ from spot or continuous futures because of contract rolls, fees, collateral and trading hours. Producer funds add equity-market and company risk.
Listed ways to follow this market
Commodity-linked funds and related producers
Direct funds and producer shares are kept separate because they carry different risks. Open any fund for its full price, trend, volume and risk record.
Week ending 28 Aug 2026
Commodity-linked funds
Producer and broader sector funds
GLD · NYSEARCASPDR GOLD TRUST GOLD SHARES NPV
Latest week-3.4%
Recent weekly price path
4 weeks10.1%TrendInactiveVolume1.7x
Commodity-linked fundOpen research →
IAU · NYSEARCAISHARES GOLD TRUST ISHARES NEW (POST REV SPLIT)
Latest week-3.4%
Recent weekly price path
4 weeks10.0%TrendInactiveVolume1.0x
Commodity-linked fundOpen research →
GDX · NYSEARCAVANECK ETF TR VANECK GOLD MINERS ETF
Latest week-3.1%
Recent weekly price path
4 weeks34.5%TrendInactiveVolume1.1x
Producer or broader sector fundOpen research →
GDXJ · NYSEARCAVANECK ETF TR VANECK JUNIOR GOLD MINERS ETF
Latest week-2.9%
Recent weekly price path
4 weeks35.0%TrendInactiveVolume0.9x
Producer or broader sector fundOpen research →
Weekly comparisonClose weekly alignment
GLD differs from the commodity's completed-week move by -0.3 percentage points. Futures rolls, collateral, fees and fund structure can all create a gap.
Commodity-linked funds may hold futures rather than the physical commodity. Producer funds add company, equity-market and operating risk. Leveraged and inverse products are deliberately excluded from this comparison.
Peer relationships
What tends to move with Gold?
Recent and longer completed-week correlations are shown together to expose unstable assumptions.
Macro transmission
External pressures around the contract
These relationships are context; they cannot overwrite commodity-specific evidence.
Financial conditions-0.41longer -0.01 · beta -0.05
10-year yield-0.40longer -0.12 · beta -0.03
High-yield spread-0.36longer -0.03 · beta 0.00
US dollar-0.32longer -0.33 · beta -1.02
Crude oil-0.17longer 0.00 · beta 0.00
2s10s curve0.15longer 0.01 · beta 0.01
Cross-commodity sequencing
Positive
Corn → Gold
4 completed weeks · recent 0.42
Momentum path
Is the move accelerating or losing urgency?
Positive and negative momentum are separated so acceleration and rollover are visible. Momentum describes the speed of the move; it does not replace the Trend or the confirmation conditions above.
Positive momentumNegative momentumNeutral
Gold setup desk
So, what is the angle?
The research is reduced to a possible path, its confirmation and the evidence that would make the idea wrong. These are conditions to monitor, not instructions to trade.The current angle
Trend with a confirmation gap
Price is trending upward, but not every market measure supports the move. The setup improves if the weaker reading turns positive.
What would make it actionable?
Wait for completed confirmation
A completed close that holds above 4318.96 USD per troy ounce, with Market Dynamics positive and relative strength above zero.
What would make it wrong?
Respect the failure condition
A completed loss of 4318.96 USD per troy ounce alongside weakening Market Dynamics.
Evidence required to strengthen the case
The upward price structure becomes more dependable if Market Dynamics moves above zero without a loss of relative strength. Relative strength also needs to recover above the commodity benchmark.
The clearest failure condition
A completed break below the Trend Line with deteriorating Market Dynamics would weaken the current directional case.
How to treat the current setup
Volatility is at percentile 85 of its three-year history, so entry timing and position size carry unusual importance.
Risk treatmentVolatility ranks at percentile 85 of its three-year history. Treat any setup as high-temperature and scale risk accordingly.
Open the full daily reportDownload the PDFOpen technicalsEvidence clocksCompleted price · 1 Sep 2026Technical desk · 2026-09-01Weekly research · 2026-08-28COT positioning · 2026-08-25Futures curve · 2026-09-03Physical balance · Not availableAt least one slower-moving specialist series is carried from its last validated release.
Completed prices, delayed observations, CFTC positioning, futures curves, published physical balances and historical relationships retain their own dates because they answer different questions. COT normally contains Tuesday positions published Friday. Physical estimates can be revised, curve structure can change and historical relationships can change sign. Research and education only; not financial advice.
Price is trending, but internal confirmation is incomplete
Mixed structure. A loss of the Trend Line would matter more while Market Dynamics remains non-positive.
Momentum is negative
The current reading is 47.1; the latest impulse is negative or fading. Acceleration supports follow-through; rollover warns that price is losing urgency.
Strong directional trend
Directional strength is 25.9. A range-led market favours confirmation and patience; a stronger directional read makes breakouts more dependable.
Volatility 1.8% · participation 16%
Volatility is percentile 45 and participation is of typical session volume. Wider movement argues for smaller risk and completed-session confirmation.