Commodity price, positioning and supply
Cocoa price, chart and market analysis
The latest completed close is 6,254.00 USD per metric ton. The Trend Signal is active, Relative Strength is +10.4 and Market Dynamics is +0.80. This week is -4.2% through 3 completed sessions; across 20 sessions, price changed +6.3%.
Current market stateConstructive4 readings support the move; 1 do not
Completed close6,254.00USD per metric ton · 2 Sep 2026
Live delayed price6183.00Observed 3 Sep, 17:00
Relative strength10.38versus commodity benchmark
Risk temperature59volatility percentile in own history
Cocoa current setup
Cocoa is trending upward, leading the broad commodity market and showing positive Market Dynamics.
Shows the latest price direction and whether relative performance, market pressure, positioning and supply support it.Current market read
The latest completed close is 6,254.00 USD per metric ton. The Trend Signal is active, Relative Strength is +10.4 and Market Dynamics is +0.80. This week is -4.2% through 3 completed sessions; across 20 sessions, price changed +6.3%.
Evidence is mixed. The setup improves when the main readings point the same way and weakens when they move apart.
Readings supporting the move67%
4 support the move · 1 do not
This week against the previous week
This week's completed path has reversed lower.
Price is -4.18% across 3 completed sessions this week. The previous completed week returned +8.96%. The market is -2.75 percentage points versus its group this week.
This week-4.18%3 completed sessions
Previous week8.96%5 completed sessions
Daily balance1/2up / down sessions
Versus group-2.75ppthis week's relative move
What supports the move, and what does not?
Green supports the current price path. Red works against it. Amber is not yet clear.
Where price sits against its two structural references
The close confirms direction. Trend is the active structural guide. Fair Value shows longer-run extension.
Fair Value4,286.62Trend5,798.23Close6,254.00
Vs Trend 7.9%Vs Fair Value 45.9%
Possible setup
Confirmed continuation
Price, relative performance and underlying pressure point upward. The clearest current angle is continuation while all three remain positive.
- What would confirm it?
- A completed close that holds above 5798.23 USD per metric ton, with Market Dynamics positive and relative strength above zero.
- What would invalidate it?
- A completed loss of 5798.23 USD per metric ton alongside weakening Market Dynamics.
- How should risk be treated?
- Use completed-session confirmation and allow for the normal volatility of this market; intraday movement alone does not change the report state.
Re-entry capacity
If price structure improves, fresh participation or short covering could reinforce the move because positioning is not crowded.
Ranked 2 of 5 in Softs
The market's 20-session move is +6.3% versus +3.7% for its group.
Physical support must agree with traded structure
The curve is upward sloping. A supportive balance without price confirmation is potential, not a completed setup.
No peer relationship is strong enough to carry the thesis
Treat the outright structure as primary; nearby commodity moves are context rather than confirmation. The strongest retained macro link is Crude oil at -0.28, but it remains descriptive and can change.
Confirmation would favour trend continuation or a completed repair rather than an anticipatory entry.
The market stays on watch; patience preserves the edge because there is no need to force a direction.
The setup weakens and the defensive interpretation takes priority until a new completed repair develops.
Price path
Is the move supported beneath the surface?
Shows price direction, shorter-term pressure, the longer-term value reference and support beneath price.1 day-4.55%
This week-4.18%
Previous week8.96%
5 days7.51%
20 days6.32%
1 year-15.71%
Vs Trend7.86%directional extension
Vs Fair Value45.90%longer-run extension
Is price holding an established direction?
The black line is the completed close. Trend changes colour as the structure strengthens, weakens or remains mixed. Fair Value is the slower reference.
CloseSupportive TrendMixed TrendWeakening TrendFair ValueCurrent week
Is the move gaining force or losing support?
Momentum describes speed. Market Dynamics describes support beneath price. Agreement is stronger evidence than either reading alone.
Momentum
Market Dynamics
Is Cocoa leading or lagging the wider commodity market?
Above zero means the commodity is outperforming the broad benchmark. Below zero means it is lagging. A turn toward zero can reveal repair before outright leadership returns.
LeadingLaggingBenchmark
Did participation expand with the move?
Daily return bars show direction. The blue line compares volume with its recent normal level. Strong moves on rising participation deserve more attention than isolated low-volume changes.
Up sessionDown sessionVolume versus normal
Does the daily move fit the slower weekly structure?
One completed observation per week reduces daily noise. Use it to judge whether the current move is part of a durable path or only a short-term interruption.
Weekly closeSupportive TrendMixed TrendWeakening TrendFair Value
Price is above its completed Trend Line
The completed close is +7.9% from the Trend Line. The 20-session path is +6.3%.
Underlying pressure is supportive
Market Dynamics is +0.80 and changed +0.10 in the latest completed session.
Balanced
Managed-money exposure ranks at percentile 11 of its three-year history and changed -0.49 percentage points of open interest in the latest report.
Upward sloping
The validated front-to-deferred slope is +2.3% across 5 months.
Technical depth
Where is the pressure, and what could change next?
Aligned upward. Momentum is positive, the latest impulse is positive and expanding, and directional evidence describes a strong directional trend.Price structureAligned upwardcompleted-session alignment
Momentum58.1Positive
Volatility4.2%percentile 42
Directional strength27.5Strong directional trend
Participation0%of typical session volume
ImpulsePositive and expandingmomentum spread versus signal
Historically adverse
Week 36 · median pressure -3.31% across the retained history.
18 Nov - 15 Dec
Median four-week pressure 22.33% with 75% directional agreement.
16 Sep - 13 Oct
Median four-week pressure -18.30% with 75% directional agreement.
Seasonal pressure
When has this market usually strengthened or weakened?
Median completed-week pressure with directional agreement across retained cycles. Seasonality is context, never a standalone forecast.
Turning-point anatomy
How have prior peaks and troughs developed?
Event-aligned paths show the typical approach to and resolution from retained turning points.
Price architecture
Trend and volatility envelope
Price location relative to adaptive trend references and its recent volatility envelope.
Momentum oscillator
RSI and stochastic pressure
Two independent oscillators show whether directional pressure is broadening, fading or becoming stretched.
Impulse
MACD expansion and rollover
The spread between faster and slower price pressure shows acceleration, deceleration and signal-line crossings.
Risk geometry
Range pressure and envelope width
Normalised true range and envelope width distinguish ordinary movement from volatility expansion.
Market participation
Volume pressure and cumulative balance
Current volume is compared with its recent norm while cumulative balance tracks whether activity accompanies rising or falling closes.
Trend quality
Directional movement and ADX
Directional movement separates upward and downward pressure; ADX measures trend strength without assigning direction.
Commitments of Traders
Is positioning confirming price, creating squeeze fuel, or warning of an unwind?
Trader groups are read separately. The useful information is how unusual exposure is, how it changed, and whether price is rewarding that positioning.Managed money net exposure is -6.4% of open interest and is currently classified balanced.
Long positions increased, while short positions also rose or held firm.
The latest producer move is ordinary, not a standalone signal Its magnitude ranks at percentile 9 of retained weekly shifts. The strongest retained horizon is 4 weeks, with 60% directional alignment across 5 independent samples.
No material commercial-price separation Positioning becomes more useful when the price path and underlying pressure agree.
Managed-money and commercial net positioning
The upper chart shows each group's net position as a share of open interest. The lower chart shows participation and, where available, whether the largest traders dominate the market.
Managed money netProducer / merchant netOpen interest
What changed inside exposure?
Two-way risk is building; short exposure added faster
Long exposure changed +0.12 percentage points of open interest; short exposure changed +0.57 points.
Long exposure added or removedShort exposure added or coveredNo change
Producer-shift interpretation
The latest producer move is ordinary, not a standalone signal
Its magnitude ranks at percentile 9 of retained weekly shifts. The strongest retained horizon is 4 weeks, with 60% directional alignment across 5 independent samples. The sample is too small and inconsistent to treat producer hedging as a forecast. Use it as a warning or confirmation layer beside price, never as the trade by itself.
- Independent cases
- 5
- Median market move
- -6.2%
- Moved with shift
- 60%
- Independent cases
- 5
- Median market move
- -4.0%
- Moved with shift
- 40%
- Independent cases
- 5
- Median market move
- -8.6%
- Moved with shift
- 60%
COT describes Tuesday positions and is normally published Friday. Producer and merchant positions mainly reflect business hedging; they are not treated as a single directional opinion. Contract rolls, classification changes and the publication delay all matter.
Supply and carry
Does the physical market support the price story?
The futures curve describes how the market prices time. Published balances describe the inventory cushion. Neither is allowed to overwrite completed price evidence.Upward sloping
The front-to-deferred slope is 2.3% across 5 months. This describes current scarcity and carry pressure, not guaranteed price direction.
No comparable balance
No synthetic inventory estimate is introduced. The absence is shown rather than filled with a weak proxy.
Demand agreement, not a standalone signal
When price, the curve and physical balances point the same way, the case has broader support. When they disagree, wait for the completed price trigger and treat the physical story as a question still being answered.
Futures curve
Scarcity, carry and term structure
Upward sloping across the validated expiry window.
2026-09-03
Front-to-deferred curve
Front6290.50
Deferred6436.00
Slope2.3%
Span5m
Completed-week risk path
Drawdown and volatility regime
Price retreat from its rolling high is paired with realised volatility to distinguish orderly repricing from unstable stress.
155 completed weeks
Drawdown from rolling highRealised volatility
Current drawdown-11.6%
Realised volatility56.0%
Volatility percentile51
Risk stateActive repricing
Relative value
Is Cocoa moving on its own or as part of a wider trade?
Ratios compare one market with another; correlations show whether completed returns have tended to travel together. Both can change and neither proves causality.No peer relationship is strong enough to carry the thesis
Treat the outright structure as primary; nearby commodity moves are context rather than confirmation. The strongest retained macro link is Crude oil at -0.28, but it remains descriptive and can change.
Use related markets to confirm or challenge the thesis; do not use correlation alone as the entry trigger.Coffee relative to cocoa
125.80 · historical percentile 684 weeks-13.9%13 weeks-21.7%Historical percentile68
Relative performance across different quote units, rebased to 100. Near the middle of its three-year range.
Softs rotation
Twenty completed sessions show whether Cocoa is leading or lagging its closest commodity peers.
Current cross-market checks
Cotton0.31Weak or independent · longer 0.06
Rough rice0.31Weak or independent · longer 0.28
Coffee0.30Weak or independent · longer 0.26
Silver-0.28Weak or independent · longer -0.17
Gold-0.22Weak or independent · longer -0.15
Natural gas-0.21Weak or independent · longer -0.19
Palladium-0.19Weak or independent · longer -0.13
Platinum-0.19Weak or independent · longer -0.19
Related markets and listed routes
How can the futures read be checked or followed elsewhere?
Related commodities, macro factors and listed funds can confirm or challenge the thesis. They introduce different risks and are never assumed to track perfectly.No peer relationship is strong enough to carry the thesis
Treat the outright structure as primary; nearby commodity moves are context rather than confirmation. The strongest retained macro link is Crude oil at -0.28, but it remains descriptive and can change.
The instrument must confirm the research
No direct listed-fund route is retained for this commodity. Related producer shares add company, sector and broad equity risk.
Peer relationships
What tends to move with Cocoa?
Recent and longer completed-week correlations are shown together to expose unstable assumptions.
Macro transmission
External pressures around the contract
These relationships are context; they cannot overwrite commodity-specific evidence.
Crude oil-0.28longer -0.05 · beta -0.07
10-year yield-0.27longer 0.07 · beta 0.05
2s10s curve-0.15longer 0.02 · beta 0.02
US dollar0.08longer 0.12 · beta 1.24
High-yield spread0.04longer -0.06 · beta -0.03
Financial conditions0.04longer -0.12 · beta -1.37
Momentum path
Is the move accelerating or losing urgency?
Positive and negative momentum are separated so acceleration and rollover are visible. Momentum describes the speed of the move; it does not replace the Trend or the confirmation conditions above.
Positive momentumNegative momentumNeutral
Cocoa setup desk
So, what is the angle?
The research is reduced to a possible path, its confirmation and the evidence that would make the idea wrong. These are conditions to monitor, not instructions to trade.The current angle
Confirmed continuation
Price, relative performance and underlying pressure point upward. The clearest current angle is continuation while all three remain positive.
What would make it actionable?
Wait for completed confirmation
A completed close that holds above 5798.23 USD per metric ton, with Market Dynamics positive and relative strength above zero.
What would make it wrong?
Respect the failure condition
A completed loss of 5798.23 USD per metric ton alongside weakening Market Dynamics.
Evidence required to strengthen the case
The constructive case remains strongest while price holds above the completed Trend Line and Market Dynamics stays positive.
The clearest failure condition
A completed break below the Trend Line with deteriorating Market Dynamics would weaken the current directional case.
How to treat the current setup
Technical structure is aligned upward; timing should be judged against completed-session confirmation rather than an intraday move.
Risk treatmentUse completed-session confirmation and allow for the normal volatility of this market; intraday movement alone does not change the report state.
Open the full daily reportDownload the PDFOpen technicalsEvidence clocksCompleted price · 2 Sep 2026Technical desk · 2026-09-02Weekly research · 2026-08-28COT positioning · 2026-08-25Futures curve · 2026-09-03Physical balance · Not availableAt least one slower-moving specialist series is carried from its last validated release.
Completed prices, delayed observations, CFTC positioning, futures curves, published physical balances and historical relationships retain their own dates because they answer different questions. COT normally contains Tuesday positions published Friday. Physical estimates can be revised, curve structure can change and historical relationships can change sign. Research and education only; not financial advice.
Price and underlying pressure are aligned
Aligned upward. Pullbacks that hold the completed Trend Line retain the cleaner continuation structure.
Momentum is positive
The current reading is 58.1; the latest impulse is positive and expanding. Acceleration supports follow-through; rollover warns that price is losing urgency.
Strong directional trend
Directional strength is 27.5. A range-led market favours confirmation and patience; a stronger directional read makes breakouts more dependable.
Volatility 4.2% · participation 0%
Volatility is percentile 42 and participation is of typical session volume. Wider movement argues for smaller risk and completed-session confirmation.