Daily report ยท Saturday, 10 October 2026
Cocoa daily reportPrices, trader positions and supply
Watching for improvement. Some readings are improving. Price still needs to confirm an upward trend.
Price direction and market pressure
Price and trend
Shows completed price separately from Weekly Market Dynamics so support and weakness are easy to see.Daily close with a state-coloured Trend and the slower Fair Value reference. The final shaded band isolates this week's completed sessions.
Speed and support
Daily momentum and Weekly Market Dynamics
Momentum shows speed. Weekly Market Dynamics shows support beneath price. Agreement is the stronger read.
Week ending 9 Oct 2026 ยท 0.242
Daily Market Dynamics: 0.365 ยท 9 Oct 2026. This shorter-term reading is separate from the weekly verdict.
Relative leadership
Is this commodity leading?
Above zero means Cocoa is outperforming the broad commodity benchmark. Below zero means it is lagging.
Participation
Did volume expand with the move?
Return bars show direction. The blue line compares reported volume with its recent normal level.
Weekly context
Does the slower structure agree?
One completed observation per week reduces daily noise and shows whether the current move fits the broader path.
Price has not confirmed an upward Trend Signal
The completed close is -2.3% from the Trend Line. The 20-session path is -4.4%.
Underlying pressure is supportive
Weekly Market Dynamics is +0.24 and changed -0.26 from the previous weekly reading.
Balanced
Managed-money exposure ranks at percentile 14 of its three-year history and changed +2.12 percentage points of open interest in the latest report.
Upward sloping
The validated front-to-deferred slope is +3.1% across 5 months.
Cocoa watchlist
Watching for improvement
Current position, the evidence behind it, the confirmation required and the point at which the idea no longer fits.Current position
Watching for improvement
Some readings are improving. Price still needs to confirm an upward trend.
The latest completed close is 5,671.00 USD per metric ton. The Trend Signal is inactive, Relative Strength is +0.7. Weekly Market Dynamics is +0.242 for the week ending 09 Oct 2026. This week is +0.0% through 5 completed sessions; across 20 sessions, price changed -4.4%.
Setup guide
Watching for improvement
Some readings are improving. Price still needs to confirm an upward trend.
- What would confirm it?
- A completed Trend Signal above the current Trend Line near 5806.13 USD per metric ton, backed by positive weekly Market Dynamics.
- What would make it wrong?
- Renewed price weakness with weekly Market Dynamics and relative strength both below zero.
- How should risk be treated?
- Use completed-session confirmation and allow for the normal volatility of this market; intraday movement alone does not change the report state.
Re-entry capacity
If price structure improves, fresh participation or short covering could reinforce the move because positioning is not crowded.
Ranked 4 of 5 in Softs
The market's 20-session move is -4.4% versus -0.2% for its group.
Check supply against price
The curve is upward sloping. A supportive balance without price confirmation is potential, not a completed setup.
Coffee is the clearest current confirmation market
The 52-week return correlation is +0.36. A matching move adds context; a divergence may indicate a relative-value move rather than a broad group signal. The strongest retained macro link is Crude oil at -0.35, but it remains descriptive and can change.
Price is higher this week, but momentum has slowed from last week.
Price is +0.02% across 5 completed sessions this week. The previous completed week returned +0.91%. The market is -3.39 percentage points versus its group this week.
What supports the move?
Green supports the current price path. Red works against it. Amber is not yet clear.
Close, Trend and Fair Value
This compact map shows direction and longer-run extension without replacing the full chart.
What would strengthen the view
A completed Trend Signal activation, accompanied by positive weekly Market Dynamics, is the clearest repair confirmation.
What would weaken the view
The developing repair would fail if weekly Market Dynamics turns back below zero while relative strength also weakens.
Timing and risk
Technical structure is aligned upward; timing should be judged against completed-session confirmation rather than an intraday move.
Confirmation would favour trend continuation or a completed repair rather than an anticipatory entry.
The market stays on watch; patience preserves the edge because there is no need to force a direction.
The setup weakens and the defensive interpretation takes priority until a new completed repair develops.
Technical indicators ยท closing prices
Structure, momentum, volatility and participation
Aligned upward. Momentum is negative, the latest impulse is positive and expanding, and directional evidence describes a range-led market.Historically supportive
Week 41 ยท median pressure 0.02% across the available history.
18 Nov - 15 Dec
Median four-week pressure 22.33% with 75% directional agreement.
9 Sep - 6 Oct
Median four-week pressure -16.03% with 75% directional agreement.
Seasonal pressure
Recurring weekly strength and weakness
Median completed-week pressure with directional agreement across the available cycles.
Past peaks and troughs
Typical peak and trough profiles
The charts compare prices before and after past peaks and troughs.
Price and trend
Price, trend and range
Price alongside its fast and slow trends. The outer bands show the recent trading range.
Momentum
RSI and stochastic
Two measures of momentum show whether recent price moves are strengthening or fading.
Impulse
MACD
MACD compares faster and slower trends. Crossings of the signal line show changes in momentum.
Volatility
How much prices are moving
The daily trading range and band width show whether price swings are getting larger.
Market participation
Volume and price direction
Volume is compared with its recent history. Cumulative balance adds volume on up days and subtracts it on down days.
Trend quality
Directional movement and ADX
Directional movement separates upward and downward pressure; ADX measures trend strength without assigning direction.
Commitments of Traders
Who holds the positions?
Read the size, the change and the price response together.
Net positioning is within its usual range
Managed money is net -6.0% of open interest. Over four weeks, price changed -3.2% and net exposure -1.2 pp.
The position over time
Net positions ยท % of open interestLong positions minus short positions. Above zero is net long; below zero is net short. Hover a chart or focus it and use the arrow keys to inspect a report.
What drove the weekly change?
29 Sep โ 6 OctLongs added, shorts reduced
Both changes lifted the net position. The next check is whether price holds that support.
Bars show each contribution to the net change. Reducing shorts lifts the net position. Changing total open interest also changes the percentage, even without new positions.
Is price moving with positions?
Four-week changesPrice and net positioning are falling together
The four-week move agrees. A price recovery while positions remain light would change the picture.
Each dot is a report; the filled dot is the latest. Inspect a dot or use the arrow keys. Latest comparison: closes from 8 Sep to 6 Oct 2026, on or before the position dates.
The other side of the market
Keep each trader groupโs role in view.
| Trader group | Net short Net long | Net position | Weekly change | History rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Managed money | -6.0% | +2.12 pp | 14 / 100 | |
| Producer / merchant | -6.7% | -2.36 pp | 90 / 100 | |
| Swap dealers | +15.4% | +1.15 pp | 90 / 100 | |
| Other reportables | -3.2% | -0.80 pp | 7 / 100 |
Net positions are not market shares and do not add up to 100%. Producers hedge physical business; swap dealers hedge swap exposure. Read the positions in the context of each groupโs role.
Long and short changes
Weekly ยท scaled by open interestSee whether the latest change follows a pattern or stands out.
Above zero means positions were added on that side; below zero means they were reduced. These are changes in contracts divided by the current reportโs open interest.
Time spent near the extremes
Historical rank ยท 0โ100An extreme can last. Follow the build-up and the retreat.
Each rank uses only the history up to that report, with at least 52 and up to 156 observations. Dotted lines mark 10 and 90. Missing readings remain gaps.
Participation and concentration
Is the market growing, and how much do the largest positions account for?
What followed large hedger shifts?
Past observations, with the sample size kept in view.
Past weeks when the change in commercial net exposure was larger than at least nine out of ten earlier changes. The observation periods do not overlap.
Only 5 cases at the first horizon. This is too little evidence to establish a reliable trading advantage.
A positive aligned move followed the direction of the hedger shift; a negative one moved against it. Producer hedging is not a directional recommendation.
| Later | Cases | Median price move | Aligned move | Moved with shift |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 weeks | 5 | -6.2% | +2.8% | 60% |
| 8 weeks | 5 | -4.0% | -3.5% | 40% |
| 13 weeks | 5 | -8.6% | +9.3% | 60% |
Outcomes use the first stored weekly close after the usual Friday release date. Actual release timestamps are not stored. Contract rolls, seasonal patterns and trader reclassification can affect the results.
Scarcity, carry and physical balance
Supply and futures prices
Shows the futures curve and published supply balance on their own release dates.Futures curve ยท 2026-10-09
Upward sloping
Front 5674.00 ยท deferred 5852.50 ยท slope 3.1% across 5 months.
World physical balance
No comparable balance for this edition
A validated published balance is not available, so no proxy inventory estimate is substituted. Price, curve and risk evidence remain active.
Risk path
Returns, price declines and volatility
Relative value and relationships
Relative performance
Ratios and correlations are descriptive completed-week relationships. They can change and do not establish causality.Coffee is the clearest current confirmation market
The 52-week return correlation is +0.36. A matching move adds context; a divergence may indicate a relative-value move rather than a broad group signal. The strongest retained macro link is Crude oil at -0.35, but it remains descriptive and can change.
Use related markets to confirm or challenge the thesis; do not use correlation alone as the entry trigger.Coffee relative to cocoa
113.84 ยท historical percentile 64Relative performance across different quote units, rebased to 100. Near the middle of its three-year range.
Softs rotation
Twenty completed sessions show whether Cocoa is leading or lagging its closest commodity peers.
Closest market relationships
Related markets and funds
Related markets and funds
Funds introduce fees, holdings and roll effects. Relationships describe observed co-movement rather than a guaranteed transmission path.Commodity funds and producers
No direct listed-fund mapping is retained for this commodity.
Timing and market relationships
Sources and notes and boundaries
Source dates
latest closed exchange session
same completed weekly reading as the commodity chart
820 completed sessions
risk, ratios and relationship histories
CFTC report positions
validated delivery structure
published balance period
How to read this brief
Price shows direction. Weekly Market Dynamics, relative strength and technical structure show whether the move has support. Positioning, the futures curve and supply data add market-specific context. Where the readings differ, the report says what to watch next.
Data boundaries
Continuous futures can be affected by contract rolls. COT data is delayed and classified. Physical balances follow release calendars. Listed funds carry fees and tracking differences. Correlations and seasonal patterns can change.
Research use
This report presents market data for research and education. It does not account for personal objectives, leverage, liquidity, taxes or execution and is not financial advice.
Internal repair is leading price
Aligned upward. The opportunity is a future confirmation, not an assumption: wait for a completed Trend Signal.
Momentum is negative
The current reading is 49.6; the latest impulse is positive and expanding. Acceleration supports follow-through; rollover warns that price is losing urgency.
Range-led market
Directional strength is 19.0. A range-led market favours confirmation and patience; a stronger directional read makes breakouts more dependable.
Volatility 4.6% ยท participation 77%
Volatility is percentile 52 and participation is of typical session volume. Wider movement argues for smaller risk and completed-session confirmation.