Commodity price, positioning and supply
Wheat price, chart and market analysis
The latest completed close is 754.75 US cents per bushel. The Trend Signal is active, Relative Strength is +14.2 and Market Dynamics is +1.04. This week is -1.6% through 3 completed sessions; across 20 sessions, price changed +17.5%.
Current market stateConstructive5 readings support the move; 2 do not
Completed close754.75US cents per bushel · 2 Sep 2026
Live delayed price752.25Observed 3 Sep, 17:10
Relative strength14.22versus commodity benchmark
Risk temperature98volatility percentile in own history
Wheat current setup
Wheat is trending upward, leading the broad commodity market and showing positive Market Dynamics.
Shows the latest price direction and whether relative performance, market pressure, positioning and supply support it.Current market read
The latest completed close is 754.75 US cents per bushel. The Trend Signal is active, Relative Strength is +14.2 and Market Dynamics is +1.04. This week is -1.6% through 3 completed sessions; across 20 sessions, price changed +17.5%.
Supportive evidence, with risks to monitor. The setup improves when the main readings point the same way and weakens when they move apart.
Readings supporting the move71%
5 support the move · 2 do not
This week against the previous week
This week's completed path has reversed lower.
Price is -1.60% across 3 completed sessions this week. The previous completed week returned +12.55%. The market is -1.74 percentage points versus its group this week.
This week-1.60%3 completed sessions
Previous week12.55%5 completed sessions
Daily balance1/2up / down sessions
Versus group-1.74ppthis week's relative move
What supports the move, and what does not?
Green supports the current price path. Red works against it. Amber is not yet clear.
Where price sits against its two structural references
The close confirms direction. Trend is the active structural guide. Fair Value shows longer-run extension.
Fair Value611.64Trend679.35Close754.75
Vs Trend 11.1%Vs Fair Value 23.4%
Possible setup
Confirmed continuation
Price, relative performance and underlying pressure point upward. The clearest current angle is continuation while all three remain positive.
- What would confirm it?
- A completed close that holds above 679.35 US cents per bushel, with Market Dynamics positive and relative strength above zero.
- What would invalidate it?
- A completed loss of 679.35 US cents per bushel alongside weakening Market Dynamics.
- How should risk be treated?
- Volatility ranks at percentile 98 of its three-year history. Treat any setup as high-temperature and scale risk accordingly.
Positioning support with crowding risk
Continuation remains plausible while price and Market Dynamics stay aligned; the risk is a faster unwind if that alignment breaks.
Ranked 2 of 8 in Grains
The market's 20-session move is +17.5% versus +12.0% for its group.
Physical support must agree with traded structure
Stocks-to-use falling at 33.2%. A supportive balance without price confirmation is potential, not a completed setup.
Corn is the clearest current confirmation market
The 52-week return correlation is +0.61. A matching move adds context; a divergence may indicate a relative-value move rather than a broad group signal. The strongest retained macro link is US dollar at +0.37, but it remains descriptive and can change.
WEAT is confirming the commodity uptrend
The fund moved +10.2% in its latest completed week, a -2.4 percentage-point gap versus the commodity. For a listed-fund expression, require the fund's own completed Trend Signal and Market Dynamics to agree with the futures thesis.
Confirmation would favour trend continuation or a completed repair rather than an anticipatory entry.
The market stays on watch; patience preserves the edge because there is no need to force a direction.
The setup weakens and the defensive interpretation takes priority until a new completed repair develops.
Price path
Is the move supported beneath the surface?
Shows price direction, shorter-term pressure, the longer-term value reference and support beneath price.1 day-1.21%
This week-1.60%
Previous week12.55%
5 days3.32%
20 days17.52%
1 year47.12%
Vs Trend11.10%directional extension
Vs Fair Value23.40%longer-run extension
Is price holding an established direction?
The black line is the completed close. Trend changes colour as the structure strengthens, weakens or remains mixed. Fair Value is the slower reference.
CloseSupportive TrendMixed TrendWeakening TrendFair ValueCurrent week
Is the move gaining force or losing support?
Momentum describes speed. Market Dynamics describes support beneath price. Agreement is stronger evidence than either reading alone.
Momentum
Market Dynamics
Is Wheat leading or lagging the wider commodity market?
Above zero means the commodity is outperforming the broad benchmark. Below zero means it is lagging. A turn toward zero can reveal repair before outright leadership returns.
LeadingLaggingBenchmark
Did participation expand with the move?
Daily return bars show direction. The blue line compares volume with its recent normal level. Strong moves on rising participation deserve more attention than isolated low-volume changes.
Up sessionDown sessionVolume versus normal
Does the daily move fit the slower weekly structure?
One completed observation per week reduces daily noise. Use it to judge whether the current move is part of a durable path or only a short-term interruption.
Weekly closeSupportive TrendMixed TrendWeakening TrendFair Value
Price is above its completed Trend Line
The completed close is +11.1% from the Trend Line. The 20-session path is +17.5%.
Underlying pressure is supportive
Market Dynamics is +1.04 and changed -0.02 in the latest completed session.
Upper historical range
Managed-money exposure ranks at percentile 93 of its three-year history and changed +1.94 percentage points of open interest in the latest report.
Stocks-to-use falling
Stocks relative to use changed -1.0 percentage points for 2026/2027.
Technical depth
Where is the pressure, and what could change next?
Aligned upward. Momentum is extended, the latest impulse is positive and expanding, and directional evidence describes a strong directional trend.Price structureAligned upwardcompleted-session alignment
Momentum70.7Extended
Volatility3.1%percentile 92
Directional strength30.0Strong directional trend
Participation0%of typical session volume
ImpulsePositive and expandingmomentum spread versus signal
Historically adverse
Week 36 · median pressure -1.60% across the retained history.
19 Aug - 15 Sep
Median four-week pressure 7.38% with 83% directional agreement.
3 Jun - 30 Jun
Median four-week pressure -7.88% with 75% directional agreement.
Seasonal pressure
When has this market usually strengthened or weakened?
Median completed-week pressure with directional agreement across retained cycles. Seasonality is context, never a standalone forecast.
Turning-point anatomy
How have prior peaks and troughs developed?
Event-aligned paths show the typical approach to and resolution from retained turning points.
Price architecture
Trend and volatility envelope
Price location relative to adaptive trend references and its recent volatility envelope.
Momentum oscillator
RSI and stochastic pressure
Two independent oscillators show whether directional pressure is broadening, fading or becoming stretched.
Impulse
MACD expansion and rollover
The spread between faster and slower price pressure shows acceleration, deceleration and signal-line crossings.
Risk geometry
Range pressure and envelope width
Normalised true range and envelope width distinguish ordinary movement from volatility expansion.
Market participation
Volume pressure and cumulative balance
Current volume is compared with its recent norm while cumulative balance tracks whether activity accompanies rising or falling closes.
Trend quality
Directional movement and ADX
Directional movement separates upward and downward pressure; ADX measures trend strength without assigning direction.
Commitments of Traders
Is positioning confirming price, creating squeeze fuel, or warning of an unwind?
Trader groups are read separately. The useful information is how unusual exposure is, how it changed, and whether price is rewarding that positioning.Managed money net exposure is -2.7% of open interest and is currently classified upper historical range.
Managed-money longs increased while short positions were reduced.
The latest producer move is ordinary, not a standalone signal Its magnitude ranks at percentile 72 of retained weekly shifts. The strongest retained horizon is 4 weeks, with 80% directional alignment across 5 independent samples.
No material commercial-price separation Positioning becomes more useful when the price path and underlying pressure agree.
Managed-money and commercial net positioning
The upper chart shows each group's net position as a share of open interest. The lower chart shows participation and, where available, whether the largest traders dominate the market.
Managed money netProducer / merchant netOpen interest
What changed inside exposure?
Long buying and short covering
Long exposure changed +1.85 percentage points of open interest; short exposure changed -0.47 points.
Long exposure added or removedShort exposure added or coveredNo change
Producer-shift interpretation
The latest producer move is ordinary, not a standalone signal
Its magnitude ranks at percentile 72 of retained weekly shifts. The strongest retained horizon is 4 weeks, with 80% directional alignment across 5 independent samples. The sample is too small and inconsistent to treat producer hedging as a forecast. Use it as a warning or confirmation layer beside price, never as the trade by itself.
- Independent cases
- 5
- Median market move
- -2.1%
- Moved with shift
- 80%
- Independent cases
- 5
- Median market move
- -4.0%
- Moved with shift
- 80%
- Independent cases
- 4
- Median market move
- -8.8%
- Moved with shift
- 75%
COT describes Tuesday positions and is normally published Friday. Producer and merchant positions mainly reflect business hedging; they are not treated as a single directional opinion. Contract rolls, classification changes and the publication delay all matter.
Supply and carry
Does the physical market support the price story?
The futures curve describes how the market prices time. Published balances describe the inventory cushion. Neither is allowed to overwrite completed price evidence.No validated curve
No comparable curve is available. Use price, risk and the other published market data instead.
Stocks-to-use falling
Stocks relative to use are 33.2%, changing -1.0 percentage points. Falling stocks can tighten the cushion; rising stocks can make scarcity harder to sustain.
Demand agreement, not a standalone signal
When price, the curve and physical balances point the same way, the case has broader support. When they disagree, wait for the completed price trigger and treat the physical story as a question still being answered.
World physical balance
Stocks relative to use
Stocks-to-use falling for the 2026/2027 published estimate.
USDA world balance
Stocks relative to use
Stocks / use33.2%
Annual change-1.0pp
Production-2.9%
Consumption0.5%
Completed-week risk path
Drawdown and volatility regime
Price retreat from its rolling high is paired with realised volatility to distinguish orderly repricing from unstable stress.
155 completed weeks
Drawdown from rolling highRealised volatility
Current drawdown0.0%
Realised volatility36.6%
Volatility percentile98
Risk stateElevated stress
Relative value
Is Wheat moving on its own or as part of a wider trade?
Ratios compare one market with another; correlations show whether completed returns have tended to travel together. Both can change and neither proves causality.Corn is the clearest current confirmation market
The 52-week return correlation is +0.61. A matching move adds context; a divergence may indicate a relative-value move rather than a broad group signal. The strongest retained macro link is US dollar at +0.37, but it remains descriptive and can change.
Use related markets to confirm or challenge the thesis; do not use correlation alone as the entry trigger.Wheat / corn
1.50 · historical percentile 984 weeks3.3%13 weeks9.6%Historical percentile98
Relative price of wheat to corn using the same cents-per-bushel quote basis. High in its three-year range.
Grains rotation
Twenty completed sessions show whether Wheat is leading or lagging its closest commodity peers.
Current cross-market checks
Corn0.61Positive · longer 0.52
Oats0.61Positive · longer 0.26
Soybeans0.55Positive · longer 0.41
Gasoline0.46Positive · longer 0.22
Brent crude oil0.38Positive · longer 0.19
Soybean meal0.36Positive · longer 0.24
Feeder cattle-0.36Inverse · longer -0.15
Soybean oil0.35Positive · longer 0.27
Related markets and listed routes
How can the futures read be checked or followed elsewhere?
Related commodities, macro factors and listed funds can confirm or challenge the thesis. They introduce different risks and are never assumed to track perfectly.Corn is the clearest current confirmation market
The 52-week return correlation is +0.61. A matching move adds context; a divergence may indicate a relative-value move rather than a broad group signal. The strongest retained macro link is US dollar at +0.37, but it remains descriptive and can change.
WEAT is confirming the commodity uptrend
The fund moved +10.2% in its latest completed week, a -2.4 percentage-point gap versus the commodity. For a listed-fund expression, require the fund's own completed Trend Signal and Market Dynamics to agree with the futures thesis.
The instrument must confirm the research
Commodity funds can differ from spot or continuous futures because of contract rolls, fees, collateral and trading hours. Producer funds add equity-market and company risk.
Listed ways to follow this market
Commodity-linked funds and related producers
Direct funds and producer shares are kept separate because they carry different risks. Open any fund for its full price, trend, volume and risk record.
Week ending 28 Aug 2026
Commodity-linked funds
Producer and broader sector funds
WEAT · NYSEARCATEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST WHEAT FD NEW (REV SPT)
Latest week10.2%
Recent weekly price path
4 weeks17.6%TrendActiveVolume2.2x
Commodity-linked fundOpen research →
DBA · NYSEARCAINVESCO DB MULTI-SECTOR COMM TR AGRICULTURE ETF USD DIS
Latest week3.1%
Recent weekly price path
4 weeks6.1%TrendActiveVolume2.0x
Producer or broader sector fundOpen research →
PDBA · NASDAQInvesco Agriculture Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF
Latest week2.9%
Recent weekly price path
4 weeks6.0%TrendActiveVolume1.1x
Producer or broader sector fundOpen research →
Weekly comparisonA noticeable weekly gap
WEAT differs from the commodity's completed-week move by -2.4 percentage points. Futures rolls, collateral, fees and fund structure can all create a gap.
Commodity-linked funds may hold futures rather than the physical commodity. Producer funds add company, equity-market and operating risk. Leveraged and inverse products are deliberately excluded from this comparison.
Peer relationships
What tends to move with Wheat?
Recent and longer completed-week correlations are shown together to expose unstable assumptions.
Macro transmission
External pressures around the contract
These relationships are context; they cannot overwrite commodity-specific evidence.
US dollar0.37longer 0.05 · beta 0.21
Crude oil0.31longer 0.17 · beta 0.11
2s10s curve-0.22longer -0.15 · beta -0.08
High-yield spread-0.14longer -0.08 · beta -0.02
10-year yield0.13longer 0.11 · beta 0.03
Financial conditions-0.05longer -0.02 · beta -0.10
Cross-commodity sequencing
Positive
Wheat → Heating oil / ULSD
1 completed week · recent 0.39
Positive
Wheat → Brent crude oil
1 completed week · recent 0.35
Weak or independent
Wheat → WTI crude oil
1 completed week · recent 0.34
Momentum path
Is the move accelerating or losing urgency?
Positive and negative momentum are separated so acceleration and rollover are visible. Momentum describes the speed of the move; it does not replace the Trend or the confirmation conditions above.
Positive momentumNegative momentumNeutral
Wheat setup desk
So, what is the angle?
The research is reduced to a possible path, its confirmation and the evidence that would make the idea wrong. These are conditions to monitor, not instructions to trade.The current angle
Confirmed continuation
Price, relative performance and underlying pressure point upward. The clearest current angle is continuation while all three remain positive.
What would make it actionable?
Wait for completed confirmation
A completed close that holds above 679.35 US cents per bushel, with Market Dynamics positive and relative strength above zero.
What would make it wrong?
Respect the failure condition
A completed loss of 679.35 US cents per bushel alongside weakening Market Dynamics.
Evidence required to strengthen the case
The constructive case remains strongest while price holds above the completed Trend Line and Market Dynamics stays positive.
The clearest failure condition
A completed break below the Trend Line with deteriorating Market Dynamics would weaken the current directional case.
How to treat the current setup
Volatility is at percentile 98 of its three-year history, so entry timing and position size carry unusual importance.
Risk treatmentVolatility ranks at percentile 98 of its three-year history. Treat any setup as high-temperature and scale risk accordingly.
Open the full daily reportDownload the PDFOpen technicalsEvidence clocksCompleted price · 2 Sep 2026Technical desk · 2026-09-02Weekly research · 2026-08-28COT positioning · 2026-08-25Futures curve · Not availablePhysical balance · 2026/2027At least one slower-moving specialist series is carried from its last validated release.
Completed prices, delayed observations, CFTC positioning, futures curves, published physical balances and historical relationships retain their own dates because they answer different questions. COT normally contains Tuesday positions published Friday. Physical estimates can be revised, curve structure can change and historical relationships can change sign. Research and education only; not financial advice.
Price and underlying pressure are aligned
Aligned upward. Pullbacks that hold the completed Trend Line retain the cleaner continuation structure.
Momentum is extended
The current reading is 70.7; the latest impulse is positive and expanding. Acceleration supports follow-through; rollover warns that price is losing urgency.
Strong directional trend
Directional strength is 30.0. A range-led market favours confirmation and patience; a stronger directional read makes breakouts more dependable.
Volatility 3.1% · participation 0%
Volatility is percentile 92 and participation is of typical session volume. Wider movement argues for smaller risk and completed-session confirmation.