Strategy Blog

Market Legends

Investors, traders, fund managers, and market pioneers whose methods shaped how markets are studied.

Each profile digs into how a great market thinker made decisions: what they watched, what they avoided, and which lessons still help a retail investor read businesses, prices, risk, and crowd behavior with more judgment.

Robert D. Arnott · Fundamental index investing

Rob Arnott Broke the Link Between Price and Weight, Then Made Smart Beta Fight for Its Evidence

Rob Arnott turned a technical argument about index weighting into a durable investing business, but his career is also a warning about backtests, crowded factors, and the patience required when contrarian rules underperform.

  • Arnott's central contribution was to challenge the assumption that index weights should rise automatically with market price, proposing that company fundamentals could anchor weights instead.
  • The 2005 Financial Analysts Journal paper on Fundamental Indexation reported an average 1.97 percentage points of annual excess return versus the S&P 500 over 1962 to 2004, before transaction costs.
  • Research Affiliates turned the idea into RAFI, a commercial index and product ecosystem delivered through partners including FTSE Russell, Schwab, PIMCO, and other institutions.
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Rob Arnott's career is defined by a challenge to market-cap weighting, the rise of Fundamental Index investing, and a later warning that smart beta must survive valuation, costs, and crowding.