United States completed market record

Market Dynamics strategy report

This report compares Market Dynamics with completed price outcomes through positioning, confirmation, participation, warning and exit.

Cycle resultsStrategy sequencePerformance IndexPublic results

United States equities completed cycle record

Accumulation and distribution outcomes

These figures compare each completed accumulation-to-distribution cycle and each completed distribution-to-accumulation cycle. Open cycles remain separate.

Accumulation to distribution89.6%finished higher across 1,883 completed cycles
Distribution to accumulation86.5%finished lower across 2,563 completed cycles

The figures change with the selected universe. This report contains United States instruments only. The Performance Index below is a separate US-equity implementation.

Report coverage

United States equities and ETFs

Accumulation and distribution can recur at different price levels. Long positioning and downside outcomes are measured separately. Results from other countries are excluded.

Strategy application

How Market Dynamics is used with price

Market Dynamics shows the condition beneath price. Price confirms the move. Completed outcomes show how that sequence performed.

Long positioning

Accumulation identifies where a long setup begins

Across completed United States equities cycles, 89.6% finished higher before distribution completed the cycle. Use accumulation to prepare a possible long position, then require price confirmation before committing more capital.

93.6% of later completed cycles also finished higher.
Downside positioning

Distribution identifies where downside risk is rising

86.5% of completed distribution cycles finished lower. The average rise before reversal was 82.8%. Distribution is therefore used first to review exposure and protect gains. A short still requires price weakness and defined risk.

95.9% of later completed cycles also finished lower.
US equity strategy

Implemented entries, holdings, exits and losses

The Performance Index compounded at 51.4% a year against 22.7% for SPY, with a maximum drawdown of -15.3%. This is the historical result of one defined implementation.

4961 completed positions · 7.01 profit factor.
01
PrepareUse accumulation or improving Market Dynamics to identify a possible long setup.
02
ConfirmDemand a price response before treating the underlying condition as an entry.
03
ParticipateStay with a supported move while price and Market Dynamics continue to reinforce it.
04
ProtectUse distribution or unsupported extension to review exposure; act when price confirms the warning.

Positioning outcomes

Outcomes after accumulation and distribution

Each cycle begins when an outer zone first appears and ends only when the opposing zone is reached. The zones move with the developing market relationship; they are not fixed prices. A long stay is one case, not a new result every week.

Long positioning

Accumulation to distribution

89.6%finished higher95% range 88.2–90.9%

This measures whether price finished higher between each distinct accumulation cycle and the subsequent distribution cycle.

Completed cycles1,883 Still in progress1,862 Average gross long reward74.3% Median gross long reward55.0% Average best advance81.8% Average adverse move30.1% Gross reward / adverse move2.47 Average time before leaving accumulation9.2 weeks Average time to best advance66.5 weeks Average cycle duration101.4 weeks
Repeat-cycle testDid it work again at later price levels?
Instruments with repeat cycles120Later completed cycles125Later cycles higher93.6%Average later reward86.9%
Advance reachedAll cycles to dateAverage timeMedian time
+5%87.3%95% 86.2–88.3%11.0 weeks3.0 weeks
+10%81.5%95% 80.3–82.8%16.2 weeks6.0 weeks
+20%69.6%95% 68.1–71.1%26.3 weeks12.0 weeks
+30%59.3%95% 57.8–60.9%33.4 weeks19.0 weeks
Practical application

Accumulation has been most useful as a patient long-positioning window

81.5% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 6 weeks); 69.6% reached 20% (median 12 weeks).

  • Use accumulation to prepare a long case, then require price confirmation before increasing conviction. The condition is a positioning context rather than a stand-alone instruction to buy.
  • The condition lasted 9.2 weeks on average before price left accumulation, while the best advance in completed cycles occurred after 66.5 weeks on average.
  • Later completed cycles resolved higher 93.6% of the time across 125 repeat cycles.
  • Completed cycles experienced an average adverse move of 30.1% before resolution. Position size and confirmation still matter.
Downside and short positioning

Distribution to accumulation

86.5%finished lower95% range 85.2–87.8%

This asks how often distribution became a completed downside reversal, how far price fell and how long the move took before accumulation returned.

Completed cycles2,563 Still in progress2,495 Average gross short opportunity24.2% Median gross short opportunity31.7% Average deepest reversal34.2% Average rise before reversal82.8% Gross reward / adverse move0.29 Average time before leaving distribution5.3 weeks Average time to deepest reversal61.0 weeks Average cycle duration95.4 weeks
Repeat-cycle testDid it work again at later price levels?
Instruments with repeat cycles231Later completed cycles241Later cycles lower95.9%Average later opportunity40.6%
Price reversal reachedAll cycles to dateAverage timeMedian time
−5%81.3%95% 80.2–82.3%16.4 weeks4.0 weeks
−10%71.0%95% 69.7–72.2%26.1 weeks9.0 weeks
−20%53.7%95% 52.3–55.0%36.4 weeks22.0 weeks
−30%36.4%95% 35.1–37.7%40.7 weeks29.0 weeks
Practical application

Distribution has been a downside warning before it has been a short entry

71.0% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 9 weeks); 53.7% reached 20% (median 22 weeks).

  • Use distribution first to review long exposure, protect gains and watch for downward confirmation. A short case needs price weakness and defined risk; distribution alone is not enough.
  • Price left distribution after 5.3 weeks on average, but the deepest reversal in completed cycles occurred after 61.0 weeks on average.
  • Later completed cycles resolved lower 95.9% of the time across 241 repeat cycles.
  • Price rose by 82.8% on average before completed downside cycles resolved. That adverse path makes unconfirmed or unbounded short positioning unsuitable.

Move-size rates include every cycle observed to date; an open cycle that has not yet reached a move is retained in the denominator. Finished-higher and finished-lower rates use completed cycles only, with open cycles shown separately. Distribution measures gross historical downside opportunity, not a realised short strategy: borrow availability, financing, dividends, spread, slippage, exits and risk controls are not included.

Strategy sequence

Market Dynamics and price through a complete position

Market Dynamics is not a one-week forecast. It is a changing record of whether underlying market behaviour supports price. Each phase below is counted once from its first observation until the relationship changes.

01Underlying conditionMarket Dynamics improves before price fully responds.Watch
02ConfirmationPrice responds while the underlying support remains positive.Enter or add selectively
03Supported advancePrice and Market Dynamics reinforce the same upward case.Hold
04Unsupported extensionPrice advances while Market Dynamics no longer confirms it.Review risk
05Confirmed weaknessPrice weakness and Market Dynamics point in the same direction.Protect capital
06RepairMarket Dynamics improves again and a new confirmation can form.Reassess
Underlying condition

Read condition before direction

Market Dynamics can improve while price is still weak, or deteriorate while price is still rising. The difference shows whether the visible price move has underlying support.

Confirmation

Let price decide when the case becomes actionable

A supportive underlying condition is preparation. A price response turns it into participation. This avoids treating every positive or negative reading as an immediate trade.

Management

Stay patient while support remains; reassess when it separates

Agreement supports patience. Divergence is a prompt to review conviction, position size and risk. The next price response determines whether the gap repairs or resolves through reversal.

Unsupported extensionTighten confirmation and risk checks

Price running ahead of Market Dynamics

Completed phases89386 Average duration2.5 weeks Average price move+0.7% Finished lower57.7%
Most common next state: Confirmed weakness · 58.5%
Early foundationWatch for price confirmation

Foundation improving before price

Completed phases95613 Average duration2.6 weeks Average price move+0.9% Finished higher58.2%
Most common next state: Supported advance · 59.0%
Confirmed weaknessRemain defensive until repair appears

Price weakness confirmed by Market Dynamics

Completed phases93686 Average duration4.0 weeks Average price move+1.7% Finished lower32.9%
Most common next state: Unsupported extension · 90.6%
Supported advanceHold while support remains intact

Price advance supported by Market Dynamics

Completed phases97918 Average duration4.3 weeks Average price move+1.0% Finished higher34.4%
Most common next state: Early foundation · 92.3%

These are completed relationship phases, not repeated weekly observations. "Unsupported" means price was ahead of the measured Market Dynamics support; it does not claim that price was manipulated.

US equity strategy record

Completed positions and benchmark comparison

The Performance Index applies one Market Dynamics entry and exit process to completed historical positions.

Completed strategy checks

The completed US strategy record passed all three historical checks

The completed record beat the benchmark on compound return, kept maximum drawdown no worse than the benchmark and recorded gross gains above gross losses. Future results can differ.

What the record follows

The first valid confirmation starts a position. The position then remains exposed to the complete price path until the published risk process closes it. This tests entry, participation, warning and exit as one continuous lifecycle.

The index is equal weighted and uses completed prices. Returns exclude costs, spreads, slippage and tax.

Open every holding and transaction →
Strategy and SPY started at 100Through 14 Aug 2026
Compound annual return51.4%SPY 22.7%
Annual return advantage+28.6%versus SPY
Maximum drawdown-15.3%SPY -16.9%
Profit factor7.01gross gains ÷ gross losses
Average completed position+64.5%47.7 weeks average holding time
PassedCompound return above the benchmark
PassedMaximum drawdown no worse than the benchmark
PassedGross gains exceed gross losses on closed positions
Result

The record includes every completed position

The index does not select only the winners. The result includes compounding, losses and completed position outcomes.

Source of return

Entry alone did not produce the result

The first confirmation began the position. Time in the position, subsequent warnings and the exit determined the completed return.

What remains uncertain

Historical strength is not a future guarantee

The result excludes execution costs and can change across market structures. It supports this implementation historically; it does not make each signal certain or remove the need for risk control.

Buy-signal entry results

Completed results from the defined long entry

The signal is one implementation of Market Dynamics. Its value is judged from completed positions and the compounded Performance Index - not from isolated snapshots after an arbitrary number of weeks.

Completed positions4,961actual historical exits
Profitable positions57.7%reward measured at exit
Average completed result+64.5%across winners and losers
Profit factor7.01gross gains relative to gross losses
Average time in position47.7weeks from entry to exit
Annual return advantage+28.6%against SPY

The completed case supports this long implementation historically because entries, time in the market, exits, losses and drawdowns are all included. It does not establish that every Market Dynamics reading is itself a Buy signal.

Scope of the entry result

The signal tests one practical application, not the whole Market Dynamics approach. The wider record also covers accumulation, distribution, confirmation, divergence, time in position and downside protection.

Research limits

What is included and excluded

The report includes completed positioning cycles, losses and unresolved cases alongside successful outcomes.

Point in time

Every comparison uses only the completed information available on that date. Later observations do not rewrite an earlier state.

Recurring cycles

A multi-week stay is one case. After the opposing condition is reached, a later accumulation or distribution begins a new cycle at the market level then in force.

Open cases

A current positioning cycle remains open until the opposing zone is reached. It does not count as a completed success.

Country control

The United States result contains United States instruments only. Other countries are published as separate studies.

Implementation costs

Positioning outcomes are gross historical moves. They exclude costs, spreads, slippage and tax. Downside results also exclude borrow and financing costs.

Research boundary

Only outcomes and validation results are public. The construction of Market Dynamics remains proprietary.

Historical evidence cannot guarantee future performance or establish causality. Survivorship, listing history, changing market regimes, execution costs and data revisions can affect real-world results. The verdict changes only when completed outcomes change the record.

Evidence context