Theme Intelligence

Geopolitical risk expectations

44 active Geopolitics markets are being monitored. Highest-ranked read: Probability Surge at 89.0% in Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by December 31, 2026?.

War, sanctions, tariffs, leadership instability, and geopolitical event risks that can move indexes, energy, gold, defense, and risk assets.

Markets44
Signals44
Freshness2m
ThemeGeopolitics
Top Signal Probability Surge 57

Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by December 31, 2026?

 Highest Probability Geopolitics 93.0%

Will Tesla say "China" during earnings call?

 Best Data Quality Polymarket 55/100

Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by December 31, 2026?

 Largest Move Probability Surge +31.5 pts

Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by December 31, 2026?
Theme trend

Score and probability history

Market map

Quality vs probability

Theme probability momentum

Top expectation moves in Geopolitics

Polymarket 44
Signal tape

Highest priority Geopolitics markets

Geopolitics expectation is rising at 89.0%. 24h move +31.5 pts. 7d move +66.5 pts. Data quality 55/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

Geopolitics expectation is rising at 25.0%. 24h move +9.0 pts. 7d move +9.0 pts. Data quality 24/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

Geopolitics expectation is falling at 19.0%. 24h move -14.5 pts. 7d move -7.5 pts. Data quality 37/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

Geopolitics expectation is falling at 7.0%. 24h move -5.0 pts. 7d move -5.0 pts. Data quality 48/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

Geopolitics expectation is falling at 20.5%. 24h move -0.5 pts. 7d move -44.5 pts. Data quality 41/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

Geopolitics expectation is falling at 0.8%. 24h move -0.2 pts. 7d move -22.8 pts. Data quality 41/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

Geopolitics expectation is falling at 0.3%. 24h move -4.2 pts. 7d move -16.7 pts. Data quality 39/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

Geopolitics expectation is rising at 18.5%. 24h move -0.5 pts. 7d move +9.0 pts. Data quality 49/100.

Geopolitics expectation is falling at 12.0%. 24h move -6.0 pts. 7d move -6.0 pts. Data quality 23/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

Geopolitics expectation is falling at 5.0%. 24h move -7.0 pts. 7d move -7.0 pts. Data quality 39/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

Geopolitics expectation is falling at 14.0%. 24h move -6.0 pts. 7d move -6.0 pts. Data quality 24/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

Geopolitics expectation is rising at 23.5%. 24h move +8.0 pts. 7d move +2.0 pts. Data quality 41/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

Geopolitics expectation is falling at 47.0%. 24h move +1.5 pts. 7d move -8.5 pts. Data quality 45/100.

Geopolitics expectation is rising at 30.5%. 24h move +2.0 pts. 7d move +2.5 pts. Data quality 44/100.