Theme Intelligence

Geopolitical risk expectations

26 active Geopolitics markets are being monitored. Highest-ranked read: Watch at 33.5% in Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?.

War, sanctions, tariffs, leadership instability, and geopolitical event risks that can move indexes, energy, gold, defense, and risk assets.

Markets26

Signals26

Freshness1m

ThemeGeopolitics

Top Signal Watch 37

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Highest Probability Geopolitics 60.0%

Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026?

Best Data Quality Polymarket 69/100

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Largest Move Watch +1.5 pts

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Theme trend

Score and probability history

Market map

Quality vs probability

Theme probability momentum

Top expectation moves in Geopolitics

Polymarket 26

Signal tape

Highest priority Geopolitics markets

▲ Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Polymarket · Watch Prob33.5% Quality61 Score37Source

Geopolitics expectation is steady at 33.5%. 24h move +1.5 pts. 7d move +1.5 pts. Data quality 61/100.

→ Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Polymarket · Watch Prob1.4% Quality68 Score37Source

Geopolitics expectation is steady at 1.4%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move +0.0 pts. Data quality 68/100.

▲ NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Polymarket · Watch Prob3.1% Quality60 Score34Source

Geopolitics expectation is steady at 3.1%. 24h move +0.2 pts. 7d move +0.2 pts. Data quality 60/100.

→ Xi Jinping out before 2027? Polymarket · Watch Prob7.1% Quality69 Score34Source

Geopolitics expectation is steady at 7.0%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move +0.0 pts. Data quality 69/100.

▼ Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Polymarket · Watch Prob8.2% Quality60 Score32Source

Geopolitics expectation is steady at 8.2%. 24h move -0.4 pts. 7d move -0.4 pts. Data quality 60/100.

→ Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Polymarket · Watch Prob0.4% Quality63 Score31Source

Geopolitics expectation is steady at 0.4%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move +0.0 pts. Data quality 63/100.

→ Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Polymarket · Watch Prob0.5% Quality62 Score31Source

Geopolitics expectation is steady at 0.4%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move +0.0 pts. Data quality 62/100.

→ Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Polymarket · Watch Prob3.6% Quality62 Score31Source

Geopolitics expectation is steady at 3.6%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move +0.0 pts. Data quality 62/100.

→ Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Polymarket · Watch Prob0.5% Quality61 Score31Source

Geopolitics expectation is steady at 0.4%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move +0.0 pts. Data quality 61/100.

→ Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Polymarket · Watch Prob1.2% Quality61 Score31Source

Geopolitics expectation is steady at 1.2%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move +0.0 pts. Data quality 61/100.

▲ Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Polymarket · Watch Prob28.4% Quality61 Score31Source

Geopolitics expectation is steady at 28.4%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move +0.0 pts. Data quality 61/100.

→ Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? Polymarket · Watch Prob8.5% Quality53 Score30Source

Geopolitics expectation is steady at 8.5%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move +0.0 pts. Data quality 53/100.

→ Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Polymarket · Watch Prob3.1% Quality60 Score30Source

Geopolitics expectation is steady at 3.1%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move +0.0 pts. Data quality 60/100.

→ Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30? Polymarket · Watch Prob4.2% Quality52 Score30Source

Geopolitics expectation is steady at 4.2%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move +0.0 pts. Data quality 52/100.