+7.5 points over the latest measured period.
No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?
Rates & Inflation expectations are rising at 89.5% on a moderate-quality market. Rates & Inflation expectation is rising at 89.5%. 24h move +7.5 pts. 7d move +6.5 pts. Data quality 41/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.
SignalProbability SurgeCurrent classification
Signal score38/100Priority across the tape
Market quality41/100Confidence in the read
Volume9.6KParticipation to date
Liquidity652Available market depth
Observed range8.0 pts449 snapshots
Market angles
The current setup
Position between the observed low and high.
Share of recorded observations at or below today’s probability.
Dispersion across the latest twelve observations.
Current liquidity relative to cumulative volume.
Time until the listed market resolution deadline.
Probability history
Probability through time
Implied probability across the selected period.
Period low 81.5%
Period high 89.5%
Direction Rising
Spread 0.0 pts
Repricing episodes
The moves that changed the market
Largest recorded probability changes, with the before-and-after price and elapsed interval.
Probability journey
How the market reached today’s price
Key checkpoints from the first observation through the period extremes to the current probability.
Market profile
Signal strength versus theme peers
Each component compared with the median and percentile of other active Rates & Inflation markets.
Current signal
Rates & Inflation expectation is rising at 89.5%. 24h move +7.5 pts. 7d move +6.5 pts. Data quality 41/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.
Participation
Where participation changed
Volume accumulation and liquidity are separated so their different scales remain meaningful.
Volume9.6KCumulative participation
Liquidity652Current available depth
Liquidity / volume6.8%Current depth ratio
Largest volume burst+258Between recorded observations
Volume accumulation
Largest participation bursts
Liquidity checkpoints
How available depth changed
Market structure
Depth, open interest and spread
Contract structure can confirm a probability move or expose a fragile one.
Rates & Inflation context
View full Rates & Inflation dashboard →
Compare related probabilities
Current probability and market quality for the strongest related contracts.
Important context
A probability is a market price, not a promise.
Prediction markets can be wrong, thin, manipulated, poorly specified, or overtaken by new information. Use probability, participation, contract wording and independent research together.