Polymarket Rates & Inflation Open Updated 3m ago

Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?

Name: Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the September meeting? Prediction Market Signal
Creator: Polymarket
License: https://sharemaestro.com/data-license/

Rates & Inflation expectations are falling at 4.0% on a moderate-quality market. Rates & Inflation expectation is steady at 4.0%. 24h move -0.2 pts. 7d move -1.6 pts. Data quality 41/100.

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SignalWatchCurrent classification

Signal score27/100Priority across the tape

Market quality41/100Confidence in the read

Volume9.5KParticipation to date

Liquidity705Available market depth

Observed range18.7 pts3611 snapshots

Market angles

The current setup

Trend Falling

-0.2 points over the latest measured period.

Range position 0%

Position between the observed low and high.

Historical percentile 0th

Share of recorded observations at or below today’s probability.

Rolling movement 0.1 pts

Dispersion across the latest twelve observations.

Liquidity / volume 7.4%

Current liquidity relative to cumulative volume.

Time remaining 24d 12h

Time until the listed market resolution deadline.

Probability history

Probability through time

Implied probability across the selected period.

Period low 4.0% Period high 22.7% Direction Falling Spread 0.0 pts

Repricing episodes

The moves that changed the market

Largest recorded probability changes, with the before-and-after price and elapsed interval.

Probability journey

How the market reached today’s price

Key checkpoints from the first observation through the period extremes to the current probability.

Market profile

Signal strength versus theme peers

Each component compared with the median and percentile of other active Rates & Inflation markets.

Current signal

Rates & Inflation expectation is steady at 4.0%. 24h move -0.2 pts. 7d move -1.6 pts. Data quality 41/100.

Contract details

What this market prices

Outcomes: Yes / No
Status: Open
Resolution time: 30 Sep 2026 · 01:00 BST
Provider: Polymarket
Theme: Rates & Inflation
Last synced: 05 Sep 2026 · 12:19 BST

Contract description

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Participation

Where participation changed

Volume accumulation and liquidity are separated so their different scales remain meaningful.

Volume9.5KCumulative participation

Liquidity705Current available depth

Liquidity / volume7.4%Current depth ratio

Largest volume burst+139Between recorded observations

Volume accumulation

Largest participation bursts

Liquidity checkpoints

How available depth changed

Market structure

Depth, open interest and spread

Contract structure can confirm a probability move or expose a fragile one.

Rates & Inflation context

Current probability and market quality for the strongest related contracts.

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Important context

A probability is a market price, not a promise.

Prediction markets can be wrong, thin, manipulated, poorly specified, or overtaken by new information. Use probability, participation, contract wording and independent research together.

Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?

The current setup

Probability through time

The moves that changed the market

How the market reached today’s price

Signal strength versus theme peers

Where participation changed

Largest participation bursts

How available depth changed

Depth, open interest and spread

A probability is a market price, not a promise.

Send a message

Evidence context

The current setup

Probability through time

The moves that changed the market

How the market reached today’s price

Signal strength versus theme peers

Where participation changed

Largest participation bursts

How available depth changed

Depth, open interest and spread

Compare related probabilities

A probability is a market price, not a promise.