Rates and inflation expectations

▼ Will Warsh say "Groupthink" or "Group think" during July Press Conference? Polymarket · Probability Fade Prob26.5% Quality35 Score52Source

Rates & Inflation expectation is falling at 26.5%. 24h move -13.5 pts. 7d move -13.5 pts. Data quality 35/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

▲ Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in June? Polymarket · Probability Surge Prob67.0% Quality37 Score48Source

Rates & Inflation expectation is rising at 67.0%. 24h move +6.5 pts. 7d move +33.0 pts. Data quality 37/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

▲ Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Polymarket · Watch Prob41.5% Quality64 Score41Source

Rates & Inflation expectation is rising at 41.5%. 24h move +4.0 pts. 7d move +5.0 pts. Data quality 64/100.

▲ Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Polymarket · Watch Prob41.5% Quality55 Score38Source

Rates & Inflation expectation is rising at 41.5%. 24h move +4.5 pts. 7d move +5.0 pts. Data quality 55/100.

▲ Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July? Polymarket · Watch Prob44.5% Quality47 Score34Source

Rates & Inflation expectation is rising at 44.5%. 24h move +2.5 pts. 7d move +2.5 pts. Data quality 47/100.

▲ Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting? Polymarket · Watch Prob8.6% Quality48 Score33Source

Rates & Inflation expectation is steady at 8.6%. 24h move +1.6 pts. 7d move +1.6 pts. Data quality 48/100.

▼ Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2026 meeting? Polymarket · Watch Prob0.5% Quality48 Score32Source

Rates & Inflation expectation is steady at 0.4%. 24h move -0.2 pts. 7d move -0.2 pts. Data quality 48/100.

▼ Will Warsh say "Consumer Confidence" during July Press Conference? Polymarket · Watch Prob11.5% Quality37 Score32Source

Rates & Inflation expectation is falling at 11.5%. 24h move -2.5 pts. 7d move -2.5 pts. Data quality 37/100.

▲ Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? Polymarket · Watch Prob5.2% Quality56 Score31Source

Rates & Inflation expectation is steady at 5.2%. 24h move +0.2 pts. 7d move +3.3 pts. Data quality 56/100.

▼ Will annual inflation be 4.2% or more in July? Polymarket · Watch Prob0.3% Quality41 Score30Source

Rates & Inflation expectation is falling at 0.2%. 24h move -2.8 pts. 7d move -0.2 pts. Data quality 41/100.

▲ Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2026 meeting? Polymarket · Watch Prob2.8% Quality45 Score30Source

Rates & Inflation expectation is rising at 2.8%. 24h move +2.6 pts. 7d move +2.6 pts. Data quality 45/100.

→ Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2026 meeting? Polymarket · Watch Prob0.1% Quality46 Score30Source

Rates & Inflation expectation is steady at 0.0%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move -0.1 pts. Data quality 46/100.

▲ Will Core PCE YoY be 3.9% or more in June? Polymarket · Watch Prob3.0% Quality36 Score30Source

Rates & Inflation expectation is rising at 3.0%. 24h move +2.4 pts. 7d move +0.4 pts. Data quality 36/100.

▼ Will Core PCE MoM be 0.4% in June? Polymarket · Watch Prob3.6% Quality38 Score30Source

Rates & Inflation expectation is falling at 3.6%. 24h move -0.2 pts. 7d move -4.2 pts. Data quality 38/100.