Theme Intelligence

Rates and inflation expectations

11 active Rates & Inflation markets are being monitored. Highest-ranked read: Probability Surge at 41.5% in Will Core CPI MoM be 0.0% in May?.

Fed, CPI, PCE, yield, and policy-rate probability shifts mapped to bonds, financials, real estate, growth, and index risk.

Markets11

Signals11

Freshness3m

ThemeRates & Inflation

Top Signal Probability Surge 62

Will Core CPI MoM be 0.0% in May?

Highest Probability Rates & Inflation 45.5%

Will Argentina's monthly inflation in May 2026 be less than or equal to 2.1%?

Best Data Quality Polymarket 73/100

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Largest Move Probability Surge +18.2 pts

Will Core CPI MoM be -0.1% in May?

Theme trend

Score and probability history

Market map

Quality vs probability

Theme probability momentum

Top expectation moves in Rates & Inflation

Polymarket 11

Signal tape

Highest priority Rates & Inflation markets

▲ Will Core CPI MoM be 0.0% in May? Polymarket · Probability Surge Prob41.5% Quality28 Score62Source

Rates & Inflation expectation is rising at 41.5%. 24h move +17.0 pts. 7d move +17.0 pts. Data quality 28/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

▲ Will Core CPI MoM be -0.1% in May? Polymarket · Probability Surge Prob42.8% Quality28 Score62Source

Rates & Inflation expectation is rising at 42.8%. 24h move +18.2 pts. 7d move +18.2 pts. Data quality 28/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

→ Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Polymarket · Watch Prob0.4% Quality73 Score41Source

Rates & Inflation expectation is steady at 0.4%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move +0.0 pts. Data quality 73/100.

→ Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Polymarket · Watch Prob0.8% Quality53 Score33Source

Rates & Inflation expectation is steady at 0.8%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move +0.0 pts. Data quality 53/100.

▲ Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in May? Polymarket · Watch Prob2.8% Quality46 Score32Source

Rates & Inflation expectation is steady at 2.8%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move +0.0 pts. Data quality 46/100.

→ Will four or more people dissent the June Fed decision? Polymarket · Watch Prob1.2% Quality47 Score30Source

Rates & Inflation expectation is steady at 1.2%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move +0.0 pts. Data quality 47/100.

▼ Will Argentina's monthly inflation in May 2026 be less than or equal to 2.1%? Polymarket · Watch Prob45.5% Quality33 Score28Source

Rates & Inflation expectation is steady at 45.5%. 24h move -0.5 pts. 7d move -0.5 pts. Data quality 33/100.

▼ Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.00% and 4.49%? Polymarket · Watch Prob2.1% Quality43 Score25Source

Rates & Inflation expectation is steady at 2.0%. 24h move -0.4 pts. 7d move -0.4 pts. Data quality 43/100.

▲ Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by June 30, 2026? Polymarket · Watch Prob4.8% Quality45 Score24Source

Rates & Inflation expectation is steady at 4.8%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move +0.0 pts. Data quality 45/100.

→ Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027? Polymarket · Watch Prob6.0% Quality44 Score24Source

Rates & Inflation expectation is steady at 6.0%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move +0.0 pts. Data quality 44/100.

→ Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting? Polymarket · Watch Prob5.1% Quality35 Score20Source

Rates & Inflation expectation is steady at 5.0%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move +0.0 pts. Data quality 35/100.