Polymarket · Rates & Inflation

Will Core PCE YoY be 3.9% or more in June?

Rates & Inflation expectations are rising at 3.1% on a moderate-quality market. Rates & Inflation expectation is rising at 3.1%. 24h move +2.6 pts. 7d move +0.5 pts. Data quality 38/100.

View Source Market Back to Pulse
Probability 3.1%
Signal Watch
Score 31
Freshness 4m
Probability history

Expectation over time

Volume 944 Liquidity 2.0K Spread 0.1 pts
Signal anatomy

Why it ranks here

Quality37.5
Momentum11.1
Urgency53.5
7d Move0.5 pts

Rates & Inflation expectation is rising at 3.1%. 24h move +2.6 pts. 7d move +0.5 pts. Data quality 38/100.

Same theme
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? 53.5% · Probability Surge · score 65 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? 47.5% · Probability Surge · score 62 Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in June? 67.0% · Probability Surge · score 53 Will Warsh say "Groupthink" or "Group think" during July Press Conference? 26.5% · Probability Fade · score 52 Will annual inflation be 3.8% in July? 0.2% · Probability Fade · score 45 Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July? 45.5% · Watch · score 36