Polymarket Weather & Climate Open Updated 1m ago

Will it snow in Buffalo, NY by October 31?

Name: Will it snow in Buffalo, NY by October 31? Prediction Market Signal
Creator: Polymarket
License: https://sharemaestro.com/data-license/

Weather & Climate expectations are falling at 34.0% on a thin market. Weather & Climate expectation is falling at 34.0%. 24h move -18.0 pts. 7d move -39.5 pts. Data quality 23/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

Trade / view source ↗ Explore Weather & Climate

SignalProbability FadeCurrent classification

Signal score47/100Priority across the tape

Market quality23/100Confidence in the read

Volume93Participation to date

Liquidity55Available market depth

Observed range39.5 pts611 snapshots

Market angles

The current setup

Trend Falling

-18.0 points over the latest measured period.

Range position 0%

Position between the observed low and high.

Historical percentile 0th

Share of recorded observations at or below today’s probability.

Rolling movement 0.6 pts

Dispersion across the latest twelve observations.

Liquidity / volume 58.8%

Current liquidity relative to cumulative volume.

Time remaining 59d 19h

Time until the listed market resolution deadline.

Probability history

Probability through time

Implied probability across the selected period.

Period low 34.0% Period high 73.5% Direction Falling Spread 0.4 pts

Repricing episodes

The moves that changed the market

Largest recorded probability changes, with the before-and-after price and elapsed interval.

Probability journey

How the market reached today’s price

Key checkpoints from the first observation through the period extremes to the current probability.

Market profile

Signal strength versus theme peers

Each component compared with the median and percentile of other active Weather & Climate markets.

Current signal

Weather & Climate expectation is falling at 34.0%. 24h move -18.0 pts. 7d move -39.5 pts. Data quality 23/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

Contract details

What this market prices

Outcomes: Yes / No
Status: Open
Resolution time: 04 Nov 2026 · 04:59 GMT
Provider: Polymarket
Theme: Weather & Climate
Last synced: 05 Sep 2026 · 10:14 BST

Contract description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Buffalo, NY records any snowfall on any day between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Snowfall for Buffalo, NY is measured only at station KBUF, which the National Weather Service reports as "BUFFALO NY" in its Daily Climate Report. Observations from any other station or location do not count. Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window. The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KBUF (midnight to midnight local time, America/New_York). Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall. The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KBUF, issued as product CLIBUF. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIBUF.

Participation

Where participation changed

Volume accumulation and liquidity are separated so their different scales remain meaningful.

Volume93Cumulative participation

Liquidity55Current available depth

Liquidity / volume58.8%Current depth ratio

Largest volume burst—Between recorded observations

Volume accumulation

Largest participation bursts

Liquidity checkpoints

How available depth changed

Market structure

Depth, open interest and spread

Contract structure can confirm a probability move or expose a fragile one.

Weather & Climate context

Current probability and market quality for the strongest related contracts.

View full Weather & Climate dashboard →

Important context

A probability is a market price, not a promise.

Prediction markets can be wrong, thin, manipulated, poorly specified, or overtaken by new information. Use probability, participation, contract wording and independent research together.

Will it snow in Buffalo, NY by October 31?

The current setup

Probability through time

The moves that changed the market

How the market reached today’s price

Signal strength versus theme peers

Where participation changed

Largest participation bursts

How available depth changed

Depth, open interest and spread

A probability is a market price, not a promise.

Send a message

Evidence context

The current setup

Probability through time

The moves that changed the market

How the market reached today’s price

Signal strength versus theme peers

Where participation changed

Largest participation bursts

How available depth changed

Depth, open interest and spread

Compare related probabilities

A probability is a market price, not a promise.