Historical view
Probability and score through time
Average probability and signal score for this theme.
Weather & Climate markets · updated 4m ago
Weather & Climate prediction markets
Weather and climate risk
Weather and climate events that may affect energy, agriculture, commodities, insurance, and logistics.
37 active Weather & Climate markets are being monitored. Highest-ranked read: Probability Fade at 0.6% in Will it rain in Atlanta, GA on September 15?.
Active markets37
Ranked signals37
Polymarket37
Probability Fade
Will it rain in Atlanta, GA on September 15?
Open market → Highest Probability 93.4%Weather & Climate
Will it snow in Buffalo, NY by November 30?
Open market → Best Data Quality 40/100Polymarket
Will London have less than 30mm of precipitation in September?
Open market → Largest Move +27.0 ptsProbability Surge
Will London have less than 30mm of precipitation in September?
Open market →
Probability spectrum
Where the theme is priced
Active contracts grouped by implied-probability band.
Momentum breadth
Rising versus falling markets
Direction and combined magnitude of the latest market moves.
Evidence quality
How much support sits behind the prices
Markets grouped by signal-quality band.
Opportunity board
Markets with movement and support
Ranked by signal strength, quality, momentum, urgency and the latest probability move.
Watch score0–100
Repricing radar
What changed in Weather & Climate
The largest live expectation moves inside this theme.
Conviction
Highest probabilities
The outcomes currently priced as most likely.
Evidence
Best-supported markets
The strongest reads by market quality.
Fragile repricing
Large moves with weaker support
Potential overreactions where movement outruns market quality.
Tail-risk watch
Lower-probability outcomes with support
Potentially underappreciated outcomes ranked by quality, momentum and urgency.
Theme context
One contract can be noisy. A cluster can reveal the regime.
Use the theme view to compare independent markets, identify shared repricing, and avoid treating a single thin contract as consensus.