Historical view
Probability and score through time
Average probability and signal score for this theme.
Crypto markets · updated 4m ago
Crypto prediction markets
Crypto expectation pressure
Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETF, stablecoin, and crypto-market expectations mapped to crypto assets and related public equities.
82 active Crypto markets are being monitored. Highest-ranked read: Probability Fade at 2.0% in Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on September 4?.
Active markets82
Ranked signals82
Polymarket82
Probability Fade
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on September 4?
Open market → Highest Probability 100.0%Crypto
Bitcoin above 78,800 on September 4, 10AM ET?
Open market → Best Data Quality 59/100Polymarket
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?
Open market → Largest Move +48.5 ptsProbability Surge
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on September 4?
Open market →
Probability spectrum
Where the theme is priced
Active contracts grouped by implied-probability band.
Momentum breadth
Rising versus falling markets
Direction and combined magnitude of the latest market moves.
Evidence quality
How much support sits behind the prices
Markets grouped by signal-quality band.
Opportunity board
Markets with movement and support
Ranked by signal strength, quality, momentum, urgency and the latest probability move.
Watch score0–100
Repricing radar
What changed in Crypto
The largest live expectation moves inside this theme.
Conviction
Highest probabilities
The outcomes currently priced as most likely.
Evidence
Best-supported markets
The strongest reads by market quality.
Fragile repricing
Large moves with weaker support
Potential overreactions where movement outruns market quality.
Tail-risk watch
Lower-probability outcomes with support
Potentially underappreciated outcomes ranked by quality, momentum and urgency.
Theme context
One contract can be noisy. A cluster can reveal the regime.
Use the theme view to compare independent markets, identify shared repricing, and avoid treating a single thin contract as consensus.