Polymarket Geopolitics Open Updated 4m ago

Will Russia target Kyiv by September 11, 2026?

Name: Will Russia target Kyiv by September 11, 2026? Prediction Market Signal
Creator: Polymarket
License: https://sharemaestro.com/data-license/

Geopolitics expectations are rising at 100.0% on a moderate-quality market. Geopolitics expectation is rising at 100.0%. 24h move +10.0 pts. 7d move +10.0 pts. Data quality 36/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

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SignalProbability SurgeCurrent classification

Signal score48/100Priority across the tape

Market quality36/100Confidence in the read

Volume100Participation to date

Liquidity9.4KAvailable market depth

Observed range10.0 pts200 snapshots

Market angles

The current setup

Trend Rising

+9.9 points over the latest measured period.

Range position 100%

Position between the observed low and high.

Historical percentile 100th

Share of recorded observations at or below today’s probability.

Rolling movement 0.0 pts

Dispersion across the latest twelve observations.

Liquidity / volume 9447.4%

Current liquidity relative to cumulative volume.

Time remaining 6d 14h

Time until the listed market resolution deadline.

Probability history

Probability through time

Implied probability across the selected period.

Period low 90.0% Period high 100.0% Direction Rising Spread 0.0 pts

Repricing episodes

The moves that changed the market

Largest recorded probability changes, with the before-and-after price and elapsed interval.

Probability journey

How the market reached today’s price

Key checkpoints from the first observation through the period extremes to the current probability.

Market profile

Signal strength versus theme peers

Each component compared with the median and percentile of other active Geopolitics markets.

Current signal

Geopolitics expectation is rising at 100.0%. 24h move +10.0 pts. 7d move +10.0 pts. Data quality 36/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

Contract details

What this market prices

Outcomes: Yes / No
Status: Open
Resolution time: 12 Sep 2026 · 00:59 BST
Provider: Polymarket
Theme: Geopolitics
Last synced: 03 Sep 2026 · 22:28 BST

Contract description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russia targets Kyiv through a qualifying military action between market creation and the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, directed at Kyiv. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered. A military action will be considered directed at Kyiv if it targets any location within the city of Kyiv. The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Kyiv time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.

Participation

Where participation changed

Volume accumulation and liquidity are separated so their different scales remain meaningful.

Volume100Cumulative participation

Liquidity9.4KCurrent available depth

Liquidity / volume9447.4%Current depth ratio

Largest volume burst—Between recorded observations

Volume accumulation

Largest participation bursts

Liquidity checkpoints

How available depth changed

Market structure

Depth, open interest and spread

Contract structure can confirm a probability move or expose a fragile one.

Geopolitics context

Current probability and market quality for the strongest related contracts.

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Important context

A probability is a market price, not a promise.

Prediction markets can be wrong, thin, manipulated, poorly specified, or overtaken by new information. Use probability, participation, contract wording and independent research together.

Will Russia target Kyiv by September 11, 2026?

The current setup

Probability through time

The moves that changed the market

How the market reached today’s price

Signal strength versus theme peers

Where participation changed

Largest participation bursts

How available depth changed

Depth, open interest and spread

A probability is a market price, not a promise.

Send a message

Evidence context

The current setup

Probability through time

The moves that changed the market

How the market reached today’s price

Signal strength versus theme peers

Where participation changed

Largest participation bursts

How available depth changed

Depth, open interest and spread

Compare related probabilities

A probability is a market price, not a promise.