+7.5 points over the latest measured period.
Will Ursula von der Leyen visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
Geopolitics expectations are rising at 37.0% on a moderate-quality market. Geopolitics expectation is rising at 37.0%. 24h move +7.5 pts. 7d move -21.0 pts. Data quality 39/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.
SignalProbability SurgeCurrent classification
Signal score49/100Priority across the tape
Market quality39/100Confidence in the read
Volume9.8KParticipation to date
Liquidity405Available market depth
Observed range33.0 pts1589 snapshots
Market angles
The current setup
Position between the observed low and high.
Share of recorded observations at or below today’s probability.
Dispersion across the latest twelve observations.
Current liquidity relative to cumulative volume.
Time until the listed market resolution deadline.
Probability history
Probability through time
Implied probability across the selected period.
Period low 25.5%
Period high 58.5%
Direction Falling
Spread 0.1 pts
Repricing episodes
The moves that changed the market
Largest recorded probability changes, with the before-and-after price and elapsed interval.
Probability journey
How the market reached today’s price
Key checkpoints from the first observation through the period extremes to the current probability.
Market profile
Signal strength versus theme peers
Each component compared with the median and percentile of other active Geopolitics markets.
Current signal
Geopolitics expectation is rising at 37.0%. 24h move +7.5 pts. 7d move -21.0 pts. Data quality 39/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.
Participation
Where participation changed
Volume accumulation and liquidity are separated so their different scales remain meaningful.
Volume9.8KCumulative participation
Liquidity405Current available depth
Liquidity / volume4.1%Current depth ratio
Largest volume burst+40Between recorded observations
Volume accumulation
Largest participation bursts
Liquidity checkpoints
How available depth changed
Market structure
Depth, open interest and spread
Contract structure can confirm a probability move or expose a fragile one.
Geopolitics context
View full Geopolitics dashboard →
Compare related probabilities
Current probability and market quality for the strongest related contracts.
Important context
A probability is a market price, not a promise.
Prediction markets can be wrong, thin, manipulated, poorly specified, or overtaken by new information. Use probability, participation, contract wording and independent research together.