Polymarket Politics & Policy Open Updated 19s ago

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IL-12 House election by 50% or more?

Name: Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IL-12 House election by 50% or more? Prediction Market Signal
Creator: Polymarket
License: https://sharemaestro.com/data-license/

Politics & Policy expectations are rising at 25.2% on a thin market. Politics & Policy expectation is rising at 25.2%. 24h move +18.8 pts. 7d move +22.2 pts. Data quality 24/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

Trade / view source ↗ Explore Politics & Policy

SignalProbability SurgeCurrent classification

Signal score44/100Priority across the tape

Market quality24/100Confidence in the read

Volume98Participation to date

Liquidity77Available market depth

Observed range29.2 pts481 snapshots

Market angles

The current setup

Trend Rising

+18.8 points over the latest measured period.

Range position 76%

Position between the observed low and high.

Historical percentile 96th

Share of recorded observations at or below today’s probability.

Rolling movement 0.0 pts

Dispersion across the latest twelve observations.

Liquidity / volume 78.8%

Current liquidity relative to cumulative volume.

Time remaining 59d 2h

Time until the listed market resolution deadline.

Probability history

Probability through time

Implied probability across the selected period.

Period low 3.0% Period high 32.2% Direction Rising Spread 0.5 pts

Repricing episodes

The moves that changed the market

Largest recorded probability changes, with the before-and-after price and elapsed interval.

Probability journey

How the market reached today’s price

Key checkpoints from the first observation through the period extremes to the current probability.

Market profile

Signal strength versus theme peers

Each component compared with the median and percentile of other active Politics & Policy markets.

Current signal

Politics & Policy expectation is rising at 25.2%. 24h move +18.8 pts. 7d move +22.2 pts. Data quality 24/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

Contract details

What this market prices

Outcomes: Yes / No
Status: Open
Resolution time: 03 Nov 2026 · 12:00 GMT
Provider: Polymarket
Theme: Politics & Policy
Last synced: 04 Sep 2026 · 19:43 BST

Contract description

The 2026 IL-12 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IL-12 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Participation

Where participation changed

Volume accumulation and liquidity are separated so their different scales remain meaningful.

Volume98Cumulative participation

Liquidity77Current available depth

Liquidity / volume78.8%Current depth ratio

Largest volume burst—Between recorded observations

Volume accumulation

Largest participation bursts

Liquidity checkpoints

How available depth changed

Market structure

Depth, open interest and spread

Contract structure can confirm a probability move or expose a fragile one.

Politics & Policy context

Current probability and market quality for the strongest related contracts.

View full Politics & Policy dashboard →

Important context

A probability is a market price, not a promise.

Prediction markets can be wrong, thin, manipulated, poorly specified, or overtaken by new information. Use probability, participation, contract wording and independent research together.

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IL-12 House election by 50% or more?

The current setup

Probability through time

The moves that changed the market

How the market reached today’s price

Signal strength versus theme peers

Where participation changed

Largest participation bursts

How available depth changed

Depth, open interest and spread

A probability is a market price, not a promise.

Send a message

Evidence context

The current setup

Probability through time

The moves that changed the market

How the market reached today’s price

Signal strength versus theme peers

Where participation changed

Largest participation bursts

How available depth changed

Depth, open interest and spread

Compare related probabilities

A probability is a market price, not a promise.