-19.0 points over the latest measured period.
Will Trump say "Qualcomm" in September?
Politics & Policy expectations are falling at 32.0% on a moderate-quality market. Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 32.0%. 24h move -19.0 pts. 7d move +13.5 pts. Data quality 29/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.
SignalProbability SurgeCurrent classification
Signal score56/100Priority across the tape
Market quality29/100Confidence in the read
Volume994Participation to date
Liquidity58Available market depth
Observed range44.0 pts742 snapshots
Market angles
The current setup
Position between the observed low and high.
Share of recorded observations at or below today’s probability.
Dispersion across the latest twelve observations.
Current liquidity relative to cumulative volume.
Time until the listed market resolution deadline.
Probability history
Probability through time
Implied probability across the selected period.
Period low 18.5%
Period high 62.5%
Direction Rising
Spread 0.4 pts
Repricing episodes
The moves that changed the market
Largest recorded probability changes, with the before-and-after price and elapsed interval.
Probability journey
How the market reached today’s price
Key checkpoints from the first observation through the period extremes to the current probability.
Market profile
Signal strength versus theme peers
Each component compared with the median and percentile of other active Politics & Policy markets.
Current signal
Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 32.0%. 24h move -19.0 pts. 7d move +13.5 pts. Data quality 29/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.
Participation
Where participation changed
Volume accumulation and liquidity are separated so their different scales remain meaningful.
Volume994Cumulative participation
Liquidity58Current available depth
Liquidity / volume5.8%Current depth ratio
Largest volume burst+50Between recorded observations
Volume accumulation
Largest participation bursts
Liquidity checkpoints
How available depth changed
Market structure
Depth, open interest and spread
Contract structure can confirm a probability move or expose a fragile one.
Politics & Policy context
View full Politics & Policy dashboard →
Compare related probabilities
Current probability and market quality for the strongest related contracts.
Important context
A probability is a market price, not a promise.
Prediction markets can be wrong, thin, manipulated, poorly specified, or overtaken by new information. Use probability, participation, contract wording and independent research together.