Politics and policy expectations

▼ Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat? Polymarket · Probability Fade Prob24.5% Quality38 Score58Source

Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 24.5%. 24h move -14.5 pts. 7d move -14.5 pts. Data quality 38/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

▼ Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting? Polymarket · Watch Prob45.0% Quality51 Score51Source

Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 45.0%. 24h move -4.5 pts. 7d move -4.5 pts. Data quality 51/100.

▲ Will the Republican Party win the IA-03 House seat? Polymarket · Probability Surge Prob46.5% Quality29 Score50Source

Politics & Policy expectation is rising at 46.5%. 24h move +10.5 pts. 7d move +10.5 pts. Data quality 29/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

▼ Will the Republican Party win the NY-01 House seat? Polymarket · Probability Fade Prob49.5% Quality40 Score49Source

Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 49.5%. 24h move -8.0 pts. 7d move -8.0 pts. Data quality 40/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

▲ Will the Democratic Party win the CA-27 House seat? Polymarket · Probability Surge Prob82.0% Quality28 Score46Source

Politics & Policy expectation is rising at 82.0%. 24h move +9.0 pts. 7d move +9.0 pts. Data quality 28/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

▼ Will the Labour Party win fewer than 30 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? Polymarket · Probability Fade Prob32.0% Quality25 Score46Source

Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 32.0%. 24h move -9.5 pts. 7d move -9.5 pts. Data quality 25/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

▼ Will Mike Waltz be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Polymarket · Probability Fade Prob32.0% Quality23 Score44Source

Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 32.0%. 24h move -9.0 pts. 7d move -9.0 pts. Data quality 23/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

▼ Will Nathan Willett be the Republican nominee for MO-06? Polymarket · Probability Fade Prob15.5% Quality35 Score40Source

Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 15.5%. 24h move -5.0 pts. 7d move -5.0 pts. Data quality 35/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

▲ Will the Labour Party win 40-44 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? Polymarket · Probability Surge Prob49.0% Quality30 Score40Source

Politics & Policy expectation is rising at 49.0%. 24h move +6.0 pts. 7d move +6.0 pts. Data quality 30/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

→ Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Polymarket · Watch Prob44.5% Quality55 Score39Source

Politics & Policy expectation is steady at 44.5%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move +0.0 pts. Data quality 55/100.

▼ Will the Republican Party win the TX-35 House seat? Polymarket · Watch Prob35.5% Quality34 Score39Source

Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 35.5%. 24h move -4.5 pts. 7d move -4.5 pts. Data quality 34/100.

▲ Will the Democratic Party win the IA-03 House seat? Polymarket · Probability Surge Prob70.0% Quality29 Score37Source

Politics & Policy expectation is rising at 70.0%. 24h move +5.0 pts. 7d move +5.0 pts. Data quality 29/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

▼ Will Trump say "Child" during Wisconsin events? Polymarket · Watch Prob80.5% Quality27 Score37Source

Politics & Policy expectation is steady at 80.5%. 24h move -0.5 pts. 7d move -0.5 pts. Data quality 27/100.

→ Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Polymarket · Watch Prob4.3% Quality55 Score37Source

Politics & Policy expectation is steady at 4.2%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move +0.0 pts. Data quality 55/100.