Historical view
Probability and score through time
Average probability and signal score for this theme.
Politics & Policy markets · updated 2m ago
Politics & Policy prediction markets
Politics and policy expectations
Election, fiscal, regulatory, tax, and policy-risk expectations relevant to sectors and broad market sentiment.
569 active Politics & Policy markets are being monitored. Highest-ranked read: Probability Surge at 39.6% in Will Nicoletti win the second-most votes in the 2026 Roraima Senate election?.
Active markets569
Ranked signals569
Kalshi82
Polymarket487
Probability Surge
Will Nicoletti win the second-most votes in the 2026 Roraima Senate election?
Open market → Highest Probability 100.0%Politics & Policy
Exact Score: Orsomarso SC 0 - 1 Real Cartagena FC?
Open market → Best Data Quality 73/100Polymarket
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Open market → Largest Move +52.0 ptsProbability Surge
Exact Score: Criciúma EC 2 - 0 Cuiabá EC?
Open market →
Probability spectrum
Where the theme is priced
Active contracts grouped by implied-probability band.
Momentum breadth
Rising versus falling markets
Direction and combined magnitude of the latest market moves.
Evidence quality
How much support sits behind the prices
Markets grouped by signal-quality band.
Opportunity board
Markets with movement and support
Ranked by signal strength, quality, momentum, urgency and the latest probability move.
Watch score0–100
Repricing radar
What changed in Politics & Policy
The largest live expectation moves inside this theme.
Conviction
Highest probabilities
The outcomes currently priced as most likely.
Evidence
Best-supported markets
The strongest reads by market quality.
Fragile repricing
Large moves with weaker support
Potential overreactions where movement outruns market quality.
Tail-risk watch
Lower-probability outcomes with support
Potentially underappreciated outcomes ranked by quality, momentum and urgency.
Theme context
One contract can be noisy. A cluster can reveal the regime.
Use the theme view to compare independent markets, identify shared repricing, and avoid treating a single thin contract as consensus.