Theme Intelligence

Politics and policy expectations

325 active Politics & Policy markets are being monitored. Highest-ranked read: Probability Fade at 12.0% in Will White House post 160-179 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?.

Election, fiscal, regulatory, tax, and policy-risk expectations relevant to sectors and broad market sentiment.

Markets325

Signals325

Freshness2m

ThemePolitics & Policy

Top Signal Probability Fade 56

Will White House post 160-179 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?

Highest Probability Politics & Policy 100.0%

Will Heidi Alexander be in the Burnham cabinet?

Best Data Quality Polymarket 73/100

Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Largest Move Probability Surge +87.4 pts

Exact Score: FC Rapid 1923 1 - 0 Sepsi OSK?

Theme trend

Score and probability history

Market map

Quality vs probability

Theme probability momentum

Top expectation moves in Politics & Policy

Polymarket 325

Signal tape

Highest priority Politics & Policy markets

▼ Will White House post 160-179 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026? Polymarket · Probability Fade Prob12.0% Quality36 Score56Source

Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 12.0%. 24h move -14.0 pts. 7d move -14.0 pts. Data quality 36/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

▼ Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 20, 2026? Polymarket · Probability Fade Prob20.7% Quality38 Score55Source

Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 20.7%. 24h move -29.3 pts. 7d move -29.3 pts. Data quality 38/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

▲ Will Frank Chikane be the next mayor of Johannesburg? Polymarket · Probability Surge Prob49.3% Quality49 Score54Source

Politics & Policy expectation is rising at 49.2%. 24h move +41.0 pts. 7d move +41.0 pts. Data quality 49/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

▼ Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? Polymarket · Probability Fade Prob16.9% Quality48 Score54Source

Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 16.9%. 24h move -15.0 pts. 7d move -21.5 pts. Data quality 48/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

▲ Will Heidi Alexander be in the Burnham cabinet? Polymarket · Probability Surge Prob100.0% Quality49 Score53Source

Politics & Policy expectation is rising at 100.0%. 24h move +16.0 pts. 7d move +16.0 pts. Data quality 49/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

▼ Will White House post 200+ posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026? Polymarket · Probability Fade Prob48.1% Quality38 Score53Source

Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 48.1%. 24h move -6.4 pts. 7d move -4.9 pts. Data quality 38/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

▼ Will there be exactly 6 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026? Polymarket · Probability Fade Prob40.5% Quality46 Score53Source

Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 40.5%. 24h move -26.5 pts. 7d move -26.5 pts. Data quality 46/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

▲ Exact Score: FC Rapid 1923 1 - 0 Sepsi OSK? Polymarket · Probability Surge Prob100.0% Quality54 Score52Source

Politics & Policy expectation is rising at 100.0%. 24h move +87.4 pts. 7d move +87.4 pts. Data quality 54/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

▲ Exact Score: Ulsan HD FC 0 - 2 Incheon United FC? Polymarket · Probability Surge Prob44.2% Quality29 Score51Source

Politics & Policy expectation is rising at 44.2%. 24h move +39.8 pts. 7d move +39.8 pts. Data quality 29/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

▲ Exact Score: Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC 0 - 2 Daejeon Hana Citizen FC? Polymarket · Probability Surge Prob34.3% Quality28 Score51Source

Politics & Policy expectation is rising at 34.3%. 24h move +30.4 pts. 7d move +30.4 pts. Data quality 28/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

▲ Will "Little House on the Prairie: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week? Polymarket · High Conviction Prob86.5% Quality39 Score50Source

Politics & Policy expectation is rising at 86.5%. 24h move +2.5 pts. 7d move +2.5 pts. Data quality 39/100. Crowd conviction is high; surprise risk may sit in the opposite outcome.

▲ Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the September decision? Polymarket · Probability Surge Prob85.5% Quality39 Score50Source

Politics & Policy expectation is rising at 85.5%. 24h move +29.5 pts. 7d move +29.5 pts. Data quality 39/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

▲ Will the Republican Party win the OH-07 House seat? Polymarket · Probability Surge Prob56.0% Quality45 Score48Source

Politics & Policy expectation is rising at 56.0%. 24h move +12.5 pts. 7d move +10.5 pts. Data quality 45/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.

▲ Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the September meeting? Polymarket · Probability Surge Prob57.7% Quality42 Score45Source

Politics & Policy expectation is rising at 57.6%. 24h move +9.8 pts. 7d move -11.3 pts. Data quality 42/100. Fast probability repricing; check related price action for confirmation.