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UIMI Elliott Wave report

UBS Core MSCI EM UCITS ETF USD dis

Week ending 24 Jul 2026 Close EUR 143.31 340 weekly observations
Current structure Five-wave advance mature
72/100 setup score 100/100 data quality
The setup score is a rules-based composite, not a probability or price forecast.
Investment view

What the current structure is saying

Based on weekly closing prices

Current read

The closing-price swing map is classified as five-wave advance mature. Price is 5.4% above its 30-week trend. 5 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.

5 constructive · 0 neutral · 2 weak

What would confirm it

Evidence to look for next

  • A weekly close through 155.57, the nearest confirmed swing high.
  • Cycle pressure and the 20/40-week rhythms continuing to rise together.
  • Relative strength and market activity remaining above neutral.
What would challenge it

Bearish structure weakens above

EUR 155.57

Confirmed on 2026-06-19. Treat this as a structure reference, not an automatic trading level.

4-week return -4.9%
13-week return 4.1%
26-week return 13.6%
52-week return 36.6%
From 52-week high -10.0%
26-week volatility 22.1%
Wave structure

Price, trend and the active swing

The chart uses a 5.6% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Closing-price swing map

Weekly close against the 30-week trend and long-term Fair Value reference.

Close 30-week trend Fair Value
Active swing 1.6%

1 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 141.09

Pivot from 2026-07-17

Nearest confirmed resistance 155.57

Pivot from 2026-06-19

30-week trend 135.97

Price is 5.4% from trend

Fair Value reference 104.47

Price is 37.2% from Fair Value

52-week range position 71%

103.61 low · 159.32 high

Cycle timing

Are the main rhythms moving together?

Cycle readings describe timing pressure. They do not set a price target or guarantee the next turning point.

Pressure phaseCresting

Current medium-term pressure direction

Multi-cycle alignmentFalling Stack

25/100 constructive · 75/100 risk

Nearest trough window7 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Nearest crest window3 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Multi-cycle rhythm

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

Nominal cycle10w
Current phaseFalling
Reading-0.87
Recent amplitude3.63
Since last trough6w
Next trough window4w
Nominal cycle20w
Current phaseCresting
Reading0.97
Recent amplitude6.78
Since last trough7w
Next trough window7w
Nominal cycle40w
Current phaseCresting
Reading2.26
Recent amplitude12.47
Since last trough15w
Next trough window15w
Nominal cycle80w
Current phaseRising
Reading2.43
Recent amplitude17.38
Since last trough15w
Next trough window15w
Confirmation

Does price behaviour support the wave count?

Each measure answers a different question. Agreement across several measures is more useful than one strong reading in isolation.

71% confirmation alignment
Trend

Price is holding above its 30-week trend.

5.4% above trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is not rising.

Cresting
Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are weakening together.

Falling Stack
Relative strength

Outperforming its benchmark

+9.7
Market activity

Participation is supportive

+40.3
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is supportive

+0.4
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is positive

+23.3
Combined reading Constructive

5 constructive, 2 weak and 0 neutral measures.

This is a count of rules-based evidence, not a recommendation.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Risk and participation

How much movement sits behind the pattern?

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

52-week low103.61
52-week high159.32
Annualised volatility22.1%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range3.8%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-7.9%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume203%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

Historical context

What followed similar readings in this security?

Matches compare trend, cycle direction, momentum, relative strength and market dynamics using only information available at each historical week.

88 similar weekly states

Median forward return

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

4w
0.9%
13w
4.3%
26w
5.5%
HorizonMatchesPositiveMedianRange
4 weeks 87 60% 0.9% -16.8% to 22.6%
13 weeks 79 72% 4.3% -9.5% to 26.5%
26 weeks 66 74% 5.5% -13.0% to 34.0%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
100/100
Indicator coverage
100/100
Confirmed structure
100/100
How the count is built

Rules, references and limitations

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 5.6% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Elliott labels describe one rules-based interpretation; other valid counts may exist.
  • Cycle windows are estimates derived from observed rhythms, not scheduled turning dates.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

The exact points used to construct the visible wave map.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2023-10-27 Confirmed Low 81.03 -8.7% 13 weeks
2024-07-12 Confirmed High 97.91 20.8% 37 weeks
2024-09-06 Confirmed Low 90.80 -7.3% 8 weeks
2025-02-21 Confirmed High 105.93 16.7% 24 weeks
2025-04-11 Confirmed Low 88.54 -16.4% 7 weeks
2025-10-24 Confirmed High 136.65 54.3% 28 weeks
2025-11-21 Confirmed Low 113.69 -16.8% 4 weeks
2026-02-27 Confirmed High 133.99 17.9% 14 weeks
2026-03-27 Confirmed Low 121.88 -9.0% 4 weeks
2026-06-19 Confirmed High 155.57 27.7% 12 weeks
2026-07-17 Confirmed Low 141.09 -9.3% 4 weeks
2026-07-24 Forming High 143.31 1.6% 1 weeks