GER · Market · Weekly research

WNUC Elliott Wave report

WisdomTree Uranium and Nuclear Energy UCITS ETF - USD Acc

Week ending 24 Jul 2026 Close EUR 43.31 72 weekly observations
Current structure A/B/C reset may be completing
44/100 setup score 62/100 data quality
The setup score is a rules-based composite, not a probability or price forecast.
Investment view

What the current structure is saying

Based on weekly closing prices
Setup lifecycle

Watching

The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation.

Now

A/B/C reset may be completing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.

Next

A weekly close through 56.53, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.

Wrong

The underlying directional structure fails beyond 43.31; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.

Risk

The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.

The picture behind the setup

Weekly wave structure and decision levels

Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined marker is still forming. Decision lines show where the primary interpretation confirms or fails.

Close 30-week trend Fair Value Confirm Directional failure
Scenario comparison

How the valid counts compete

A/B/C reset may be completing31%
Possible bearish Wave 3 declining29%
A/B/C reset may be completing40%
Relative evidence among displayed counts—not forecast probabilities.
Pre-emptive downside check

Watch

34/100
Wave maturity0/25
Trend extension0/20
Range position0/15
Cycle rollover11/15
Multi-cycle risk13/15
Count instability10/10
Event proximity0/10

This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down.

Current read

The closing-price swing map is classified as a/b/c reset may be completing. Price is 15.1% below its 30-week trend. 0 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.

0 constructive · 0 neutral · 7 weak

What would confirm it

Evidence to look for next

  • A weekly close through 56.53, the nearest confirmed swing high.
  • Cycle pressure and the 20/40-week rhythms continuing to rise together.
  • Relative strength and market activity remaining above neutral.
What would challenge it

Bullish structure weakens below

EUR 38.63

Confirmed on 2025-11-21. Treat this as a structure reference, not an automatic trading level.

4-week return -5.7%
13-week return -22.5%
26-week return -24.5%
52-week return 17.5%
From 52-week high -29.9%
26-week volatility 34.5%
Wave structure

Price, trend and the active swing

The chart uses a 13.9% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Primary admissible count

A/B/C reset may be completing

31% evidence weight

Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities.

Confirm 56.53 Invalidate 43.31 Count stability Unavailable · 0/100
PassWave B protects the correction originOrigin 57.39; Wave B 56.53.
PassWave C progresses beyond Wave AA length 8.64; C length 13.22.
GuidelineWave C is proportionate to Wave AWave C is 1.53× Wave A.
Strategic degreeNo valid count

Strategic degree uses a 22.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreeA/B/C reset may be completing

Primary degree uses a 13.9% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreeA/B/C reset may be completing

Tactical degree uses a 9.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing -23.4%

14 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 38.63

Pivot from 2025-11-21

Nearest confirmed resistance 56.53

Pivot from 2026-04-17

30-week trend 51.04

Price is -15.1% from trend

Fair Value reference 41.72

Price is 3.8% from Fair Value

52-week range position 38%

32.17 low · 61.77 high

Cycle timing

Are the main rhythms moving together?

Nominal cycles are starting bands, not fixed clocks. Each period adapts to the strongest nearby repeat in detrended weekly prices; projected turns are future intervals and require price confirmation.

Pressure phaseFalling

Current medium-term pressure direction

Multi-cycle alignmentFalling Stack

12/100 constructive · 88/100 risk

Nearest trough window15 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Nearest crest window11 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Multi-cycle rhythm

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

Nominal / estimated10w / 12w
Current phaseFalling
Period evidence34/100
FLD confirmationCrossed Down
Since last trough1w
Future trough interval8–14w
Nominal / estimated20w / 16w
Current phaseFalling
Period evidence50/100
FLD confirmationCrossed Down
Since last trough1w
Future trough interval12–18w
Nominal / estimated40w / 40w
Current phaseFalling
Period evidence0/100
FLD confirmationCrossed Down
Since last trough14w
Future trough interval16–36w
Nominal / estimated80w / 80w
Current phaseWarming
Period evidence0/100
FLD confirmationCrossed Down
Since last trough-
Future trough interval-
Confirmation

Does price behaviour support the wave count?

Each measure answers a different question. Agreement across several measures is more useful than one strong reading in isolation.

100% confirmation alignment
Trend

Price remains below its 30-week trend.

15.1% below trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is not rising.

Falling
Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are weakening together.

Falling Stack
Relative strength

Underperforming its benchmark

-11.5
Market activity

Participation is weak

-7.4
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is weak

-1.5
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is negative

-2.6
Combined reading Defensive

0 constructive, 7 weak and 0 neutral measures.

This is a count of rules-based evidence, not a recommendation.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Risk and participation

How much movement sits behind the pattern?

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

52-week low32.17
52-week high61.77
Annualised volatility34.5%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range6.6%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-24.5%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume84%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

Market, peer and event context

Is the structure isolated—or supported by its environment?

Peer breadth tests whether the sector is moving with this security. Event and options context tests whether a catalyst could overwhelm otherwise valid technical structure.

Sector breadth

50% constructive

11 of 22 analysed peers have a bullish rule-valid primary count.

14% have improving cycle stacks Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.
Event collision

No near collision identified

No stored event or positioning warning currently conflicts with the count.

Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure.
Peer-state horizonIndependent samplesPositiveMedianMedian excess vs ^GDAXI10th–90th percentile
4 weeks19967%1.6%-0.6%-3.9% to 8.1%
13 weeks8873%3.0%-2.1%-3.0% to 13.3%
26 weeks5374%4.0%-1.6%-6.1% to 22.8%
Historical context

What followed similar readings in this security?

Matches compare trend, cycle direction, momentum, relative strength and market dynamics using only information available at each historical week.

0 similar weekly states
Not enough comparable history yet

Historical context appears only when at least eight completed outcomes are available for one of the measured horizons.

At least 90 weekly observations are required.

Evidence quality62/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
28/100
Indicator coverage
78/100
Confirmed structure
83/100
Model ewc-2.1.0 · as of 2026-07-24 · only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained.
How the count is built

Rules, references and limitations

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 13.9% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
  • Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
  • Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
  • Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

The exact points used to construct the visible wave map.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2025-10-31 Confirmed High 51.66 - 0 weeks
2025-11-21 Confirmed Low 38.63 -25.2% 3 weeks
2026-01-23 Confirmed High 57.39 48.5% 9 weeks
2026-03-20 Confirmed Low 48.75 -15.1% 8 weeks
2026-04-17 Confirmed High 56.53 16.0% 4 weeks
2026-07-24 Forming Low 43.31 -23.4% 14 weeks