Current read
The closing-price swing map is classified as impulse advance still supported. Price is 4.8% above its 30-week trend. 5 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.
5 constructive · 1 neutral · 1 weak
AMS · Market · Weekly research
VERX Elliott Wave report
Vanguard FTSE Developed Europe ex UK UCITS ETF Distributing
Current structure
Impulse advance still supported
75/100 setup score
100/100 data quality
The setup score is a rules-based composite, not a probability or price forecast.
Investment view
Based on weekly closing prices
What the current structure is saying
Evidence to look for next
- A new closing-price high that holds above the 30-week trend.
- Cycle pressure and the 20/40-week rhythms continuing to rise together.
- Relative strength and market activity remaining above neutral.
Bullish structure weakens below
EUR 43.90Confirmed on 2026-03-20. Treat this as a structure reference, not an automatic trading level.
4-week return
0.9%
13-week return
7.3%
26-week return
6.2%
52-week return
17.6%
From 52-week high
-2.1%
26-week volatility
15.3%
Wave structure
Price, trend and the active swing
The chart uses a 5.0% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.
Closing-price swing map
Weekly close against the 30-week trend and long-term Fair Value reference.
Close
30-week trend
Fair Value
18 weeks · Forming
Pivot from 2026-03-20
Price is above prior confirmed highs
Price is 4.8% from trend
Price is 23.1% from Fair Value
40.72 low · 50.96 high
Cycle timing
Are the main rhythms moving together?
Cycle readings describe timing pressure. They do not set a price target or guarantee the next turning point.
Current medium-term pressure direction
50/100 constructive · 50/100 risk
Timing estimate, not a dated forecast
Timing estimate, not a dated forecast
Cycle pressure
Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.
Multi-cycle rhythm
The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.
Nominal cycle10w
Current phaseCresting
Reading0.88
Recent amplitude2.12
Since last trough4w
Next trough window4w
Nominal cycle20w
Current phaseCresting
Reading2.08
Recent amplitude2.97
Since last trough10w
Next trough window10w
Nominal cycle40w
Current phaseRising
Reading1.51
Recent amplitude5.08
Since last trough10w
Next trough window10w
Nominal cycle80w
Current phaseRising
Reading1.30
Recent amplitude10.34
Since last trough8w
Next trough window8w
Confirmation
71% confirmation alignment
Does price behaviour support the wave count?
Each measure answers a different question. Agreement across several measures is more useful than one strong reading in isolation.
Trend
4.8% above trend
Price is holding above its 30-week trend.
Cycle pressure
Rising
The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher.
Cycle alignment
Mixed
Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction.
Relative strength
-1.9
Underperforming its benchmark
Market activity
+59.6
Participation is supportive
Market dynamics
+1.0
Price and volume behaviour is supportive
30-week momentum
+9.7
Medium-term momentum is positive
5 constructive, 1 weak and 1 neutral measures.
This is a count of rules-based evidence, not a recommendation.Market activity
Whether participation is supporting the move.
Relative strength
Performance against the market benchmark.
30-week momentum
The pace of the medium-term price move.
Market dynamics
A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.
Risk and participation
How much movement sits behind the pattern?
Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.
52-week low40.72
52-week high50.96
Based on the latest 26 weekly returns
Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks
From the highest close in the stored record
Of its trailing 20-week average
Drawdown history
Distance below the highest prior weekly close.
Realised volatility
Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.
Relative volume
Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.
Historical context
142 similar weekly states
What followed similar readings in this security?
Matches compare trend, cycle direction, momentum, relative strength and market dynamics using only information available at each historical week.
Median forward return
Median outcome after each matching historical week.
| Horizon | Matches | Positive | Median | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 weeks | 141 | 61% | 0.9% | -10.7% to 7.1% |
| 13 weeks | 132 | 70% | 2.3% | -9.0% to 9.6% |
| 26 weeks | 125 | 76% | 5.0% | -17.4% to 15.5% |
Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.
Evidence quality100/100
This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.
- Weekly history
- 100/100
- Indicator coverage
- 100/100
- Confirmed structure
- 100/100
Rules, references and limitations
- Swing points use weekly closes and a 5.0% adaptive reversal threshold.
- The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
- Elliott labels describe one rules-based interpretation; other valid counts may exist.
- Cycle windows are estimates derived from observed rhythms, not scheduled turning dates.
Audit trail
Recent swing points
The exact points used to construct the visible wave map.
| Date | Status | Type | Price | Move | Duration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-17 | Confirmed | Low | 31.20 | -5.5% | 4 weeks |
| 2023-07-28 | Confirmed | High | 34.41 | 10.3% | 19 weeks |
| 2023-10-27 | Confirmed | Low | 31.31 | -9.0% | 13 weeks |
| 2024-06-07 | Confirmed | High | 39.58 | 26.4% | 32 weeks |
| 2024-08-02 | Confirmed | Low | 37.18 | -6.1% | 8 weeks |
| 2024-09-27 | Confirmed | High | 39.76 | 6.9% | 8 weeks |
| 2024-12-20 | Confirmed | Low | 37.59 | -5.5% | 12 weeks |
| 2025-02-28 | Confirmed | High | 42.11 | 12.0% | 10 weeks |
| 2025-04-11 | Confirmed | Low | 37.10 | -11.9% | 6 weeks |
| 2026-02-27 | Confirmed | High | 48.87 | 31.7% | 46 weeks |
| 2026-03-20 | Confirmed | Low | 43.90 | -10.2% | 3 weeks |
| 2026-07-24 | Forming | High | 49.90 | 13.7% | 18 weeks |